The Industrial Ecology of Emerging Technologies Complexity and the Reconstruction of the World

FORUM The Industrial Ecology of Emerging Technologies Complexity and the Reconstruction of the World

Braden Allenby

Keywords: Summary complexity industrial ecology The modern world increasingly reﬂects human activities, to railroads the point that many scientists are referring to this era as the resilience “Anthropocene,” the Age of Humans. A major domain of sustainable technologies human activity involves sociotechnical systems, which can be transhumanism characterized as occurring in constellations of coevolving technological, cultural, institutional, economic, and psychological Supplementary material is available systems lasting over many decades. The current constellation, on the JIE Web site still in its early stages of development, brings together ﬁve powerful technology systems—nanotechnology, biotechnology, robotics, information and communication technology, and cognitive science—that are even more complex than historical precedents because they enable not just far more powerful capabilities to design domains external to humans but also the potential to design individual humans themselves. Under- standing the implications of this sociotechnical landscape for industrial ecology suggests profound theoretical challenges as well as important new areas of research.

Address correspondence to: Prof. Brad Allenby Department of Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering Arizona State University P. O. Box 875306 Tempe, AZ 85287 USA [email protected] enpub.fulton.asu.edu/cesem/

c 2009 by Yale University DOI: 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00114.x

Volume 13, Number 2

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are all part of interconnected global systems, and Introduction: The a population of more than six billion humans, Anthropogenic Earth each seeking a better life, ensures that our overall The modern world is fundamentally different role in global systems will only increase, absent from anything previously known, in that it is some sort of population crash. dominated by one species and the activities and With respect to biological systems, it is gener- products characteristic of that species, from auto- ally accepted among most conservation biologists mobiles to cities to the creation of vast new cy- that we are experiencing a crisis in biodiversity berspaces. It is a world where the critical dynam- as human activity causes extinction levels to ac- ics of major earth systems, be they atmospheric, celerate. But some note that even if the decrease biological, or radiative—or, for that matter, cul- in evolved biodiversity is as steep as alleged— tural, economic, or technological—increasingly something that the underlying data are somewhat bear the imprint of the human (McNeill 2000; sketchy on—this may not be true, given the rise Allenby 2005). As Nature put it in a 2003 edi- of “synthetic biology.” Over the past decades, sci- torial, “Welcome to the Anthropocene” (709)— entists and engineers have begun the project of roughly translated, to the Age of Humans (Na- understanding and designing new forms of life; ture 2003). A small set of examples from different their efforts have coalesced into a new field called domains, although not adequate to enable under- synthetic biology (See box 1). standing of the whole, nonetheless provides some The example of synthetic biology is instruc- illustrative grounding. tive because it illustrates that these new tech- Perhaps the most fundamental physical prop- nological directions are not merely incremental erty of a planetary body is its characteristic ra- changes to existing knowledge. Synthetic bio- diation emissions spectrum, determined by the logy does not just reconfigure the biological sci- planet’s heat content, composition, and atmo- ences; the potential implications are far more spheric physics and chemistry. The earth’s spec- profound. To begin with, biodiversity increas- trum, however, is no longer just a matter of re- ingly becomes a product of design choices and flections from clouds, emitted infrared radiation, industrial and political imperatives (security is- and the like. Rather, it includes television and ra- sues, e.g.) rather than evolutionary pressures. dio broadcasts and leakage from all sorts of tech- This has potentially serious implications for sys- nologies. For many people, this change may be tem stability and resiliency. Given that evolved best captured in the well-known picture of the biodiversity tends to coevolve in concert with earth from space at night, with electric lights its surrounding biological and physical systems spread over North America, Europe, and Asia. and thus tends toward resiliency, but the high In the Anthropocene, perhaps the most funda- throughput and focus on economic value char- mental physical aspect of our planet, its radiation acterizing industrial systems, and thus synthetic spectrum, carries a human signature. biological systems, do not suggest such stability. Another familiar example is provided by More broadly, the behavior and structure of bio- global climate change. Fitful and ad hoc as it logical systems increasingly become a function is, the process of the Kyoto Treaty and associ- of human dynamics and systems, so that under- ated short-term politics represents the dawning standing biological systems more and more re- of a realization that, regardless of what happens quires an understanding of the relevant human with international politics, our species will be systems. Thus, for example, the contingency that engaged in a dialogue with our climate, our at- characterizes human systems comes to character- mospheric chemistry and physics, and the carbon ize biological systems. An obvious marketing ex- cycle as long as we exist at anywhere near our ample comes from conservation biology. In an current numbers on the planet. We can reduce— arbitrary and profoundly cultural process some more likely, redistribute—some of our impacts species are preserved because they are charismatic on these complicated and interrelated systems, megafauna: pandas, tigers, or whales. Many, many but we will not eliminate the growing human in- others go extinct because they are only insects, or fluence. Moreover, these particular perturbations plants, or ugly, or unknown; a few, like smallpox,

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Box 1 assembled from scratch, including the viruses for polio and the 1918 flu epidemic. Other Synthetic Biology researchers have engineered the genes of Es- Synthetic biology merges engineering with cherichia coli to incorporate a 21st amino acid, biology by, among other things, creating stan- opening up opportunities for design of biolog- dard biological components that can be mixed ical organisms that have been unavailable to and matched in organisms to provide desired evolved biological systems for billions of years functions. This allows researchers to treat (Nature 2004). Commercialization of these biological pathways as if they were compo- biotechnologies continues to accelerate, led nents or circuits and to create organisms from by the introduction in agriculture of geneti- scratch—not to mention extending beyond cally modified organism (GMO) technology. existing biological systems by, for example, But as the growth in biotechnology compa- creating life based on different genetic codes nies in pharmaceuticals and other sectors in- than those found in the wild. MIT, for exam- dicates, GMO technology extends far beyond ple, has established a Registry of Standard Bio- agriculture. Reflecting the ongoing commodi- logical Parts (“BioBricks”) that can be ordered tization of life, figures for biotechnology patent and plugged into cells, just like electronic filings in Organisation for Economic Co- components. The 2005 Intercollegiate Genet- operation and Development (OECD) coun- ically Engineered Machine (iGEM) competi- tries continue to rise sharply. Moreover, the tion held at MIT in November 2005 attracted speed of underlying technological advance in 17 teams, with designs that included bacterial synthetic biology—Carlson’s curve, measur- Etch-a-Sketches; photosensitive t-shirts; and ing the improvement in DNA sequencing and bacterial photography systems, thermometers, synthesis capability—is even more rapid than and sensors (Check 2005). Somewhat con- the famed Moore’s law in chip transistor ca- troversial, a number of viruses have been pacity (“Life 2.0” 2006).. disappear because humans detest and fear them. element of the human environment—perhaps In short, biology increasingly becomes a social even a little mundane compared to other forms science. of transportation. But in the middle 1800s, as it began its rapid expansion phase, the railroad was not just the most impressive piece of machinery Technology as Systems Function: The most people had ever seen: It was a sociocultural Railroad Example juggernaut. The world before the railroad and the To fully appreciate the challenges that the world after the railroad were different in profound complexity of modern, rapidly evolving tech- ways. Among the changes the railroads brought nology systems present to the industrial ecolo- in their wake were the following: gist, one must understand technologies as integral parts of the human/natural/built systems that 1. As a regional-scale integrated technology characterize our present age, not just a collec- network, railroads required a uniform, pre- tion of artifacts. It is not just that our technolo- cise system of time and thus created “in- gies physically construct a human earth. Rather, dustrial time” and its associated culture much of the complexity of technological systems (Rosenberg and Birdzell 1986). Before rail- arises not from their physical attributes, compli- roads, local times were isolated and charm- cated as they may be, but from their necessary ingly idiosyncratic: London time was coupling to human and social systems, which 4 minutes ahead of Reading, more than have a far different and higher degree of com- 7 minutes ahead of Cirencester, and plexity (Bijker et al. 1997; Heidegger 1997). 14 minutes ahead of Bridgewater (Schivel- This is perhaps best illustrated through his- busch 1977). Moreover, the adaptation to torical example. Railroads are by now a familiar uniform systems of time was not smooth;

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for a considerable period in the United 15 miles an hour by steam, He would have States, each train company had its own foretold it through His holy prophets. It is time, so that stations serving several train a device of Satan to lead immortal souls companies had different clocks (Buffalo down to Hell” (Ohio School Board, 1828, had three different clocks at one point, quoted in Nye 1994, 57). The railroads Pittsburgh six). Regional standard time did thus initiated a coupling between religion not gain legal recognition in the United and the technological sublime that forms States until 1918 (Schivelbusch 1997). an important basis of American exception- 2. Railroads created the need for and co- alism1 and continues in the United States evolved with national-scale communica- into modern times. Consider Robert Op- tions systems. In particular, telegraph tech- penheimer’s famous musing at Trinity Test nology was both coextensive with rail Site at White Sands, New Mexico, in 1945 networks (frequently laid along the same at the first successful nuclear test, echoing rights of way) and a necessary coordination Vishnu from the Bhagavad Gita: “Now I am mechanism for the creation and operation become Death, destroyer of worlds.”2 No- of regional integrated rail systems (Grubler tice also the critical shift that technology 1998). enables: The aspect of destroyer of worlds 3. Railroad firms shaped modern manage- in the Gita is divine; at White Sands, the rial capitalism. Whereas previous indus- divine has become human. trial technologies had called forth a divi- 6. Railroads transformed landscapes at all sion of labor among factory workers, the scales, both physically and psychologically. scale of railroad enterprises required a di- Chicago existed, and structured the Mid- vision of labor at the management level, west economically, physically, and envi- with modern and professional accounting, ronmentally, because of railroads (Cronon planning, human resources, and adminis- 1991). Psychologically, railroad technol- trative systems (Freeman and Louca 2001). ogy did not just extend but obliterated 4. Railroad firms shaped modern capital and the sense of place and rhythm that previ- financial markets (railroad construction ous transportation technologies, the horse was the single most important stimulus and carriage and the canal, had encour- to industrial growth in Western Europe aged, and early reports of railroad travel fre- by the 1840s). The early factory system quently emphasized the psychological dis- was supported initially by aristocrats and location induced by the increase in speed landowners and subsequently by factory and reduction in perceived distances that owners using their own capital, an es- the technology introduced (Schivelbusch sentially individualistic financial structure 1977). that was nowhere near adequate to support 7. Like most major technological systems, the huge capital requirements of railroad railroads fundamentally changed eco- firms (Freeman and Louca 2001). nomic and power structures. In the United 5. Particularly in the United States, railroads States, for example, railroads validated the became a potent symbol of national power continental scale of the American state and, more subtly, instantiated and vali- and the doctrine of manifest destiny3 and dated the American integration of reli- restructured the economy from local and gion, morality, and technology. This was regional business concentrations to trusts reflected in the language used by those (because of scale economies of national who viewed railroads as evidence of hu- markets). With the railroad, economic man ascension to godlike power (Daniel power passed to industrial firms from agri- Webster, e.g.) and the not insignificant in culture; more subtly, so did cultural author- number who viewed them as Satanic: “If ity (Marx 1964; Nye 1994). God had designed that His intelligent crea- 8. The railroads fundamentally and rad- tures should travel at the frightful speed of ically shifted the dominant American

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worldview from Jeffersonian agrarianism, and linkages among social, cultural, belief, tech- an Edenic vision, to a technology-driven nological, and physical systems that lie beyond New Jerusalem (Marx 1964; Nye 1994; most industrial ecology studies to date. In the the Edenic vision is one of humans liv- case of individual analyses and studies, of course, ing in nature without technology, as if in consideration of these broad dimensions of tech- Eden, whereas the New Jerusalem vision nology systems may not be required. But a ro- is one of a high-technology, intensely de- bust industrial ecology that addresses questions signed environment. Both draw from Euro- of technological evolution through time cannot Christian roots, but they have very dif- afford to ignore them. Whether these domains ferent cultural and political implications). are the core or even a part of industrial ecology This cultural schism replays itself even as a field is less important than understanding today, with the sustainability and envi- that these couplings exist and must be evaluated ronmental discourses leaning toward the for relevance and importance depending on the Edenic and the industrial, commercial, and particular analysis at hand. science and technology communities sup- More subtly, industrial ecology is not just a porting the New Jerusalem worldview (Al- technocratic field of study and practice; as with lenby et al. 2007). any intellectual framework, it is also a reflection of its culture, its times, and relevant ideologies. These factors, of course, also arise from (a pri- Technology Clusters marily Enlightenment,4 technocratic, and ratio- The constellation of social, economic, cul- nalistic) culture, and industrial ecology cannot tural, values, theological, institutional, and pol- be independent of them. Thus, the role of tech- icy patterns associated with a core technology is nology systems in structuring cultural attributes by no means unique to railroads. Indeed, the rail- creates a reflexivity underlying industrial ecology road example is only one of what economic histo- that cannot be ignored, but most industrial eco- rians call “long waves” of innovation (sometimes logists remain unaware of the power of technol- called “Kondratiev waves”), with accompanying ogy systems in creating these cultural frameworks cultural, institutional, and economic changes, (reflexivity refers to the way that, as humans de- developing around core fundamental technolo- velop information about themselves and their gies. Each core technology supports “technology systems, it feeds back into their systems, thus clusters”: Railroads and steam technology pow- changing the analysis and system behavior in un- ered a wave from about 1840 to 1890; steel, predictable ways). heavy engineering, and electricity, from about Again, the railroad offers a case in point. The 1890 to 1930; the automobile, petroleum, and shift from technology as a challenge to agrar- aircraft from about 1930 to 1990; the informa- ian Eden to technology as a means to achieve tion cluster, with its computerization of the econ- the New Jerusalem is a critical step in the rela- omy, from about 1990 to the present. Although tionship between technology and theology gen- the dates are somewhat imprecise, the general erally but particularly in the embrace of tech- idea of clusters of technology—which, it cannot nology in the New World. It remains a potent be emphasized enough, always carry with them cultural archetype underlying much of America’s institutional, organizational, economic, cultural, self-image and hence is critical to global cultural and political changes—is a useful one (Freeman and power patterns. For an industrial ecologist and Louca 2001). Thus, specialized professional trying to study genetically modified organisms managerial systems and associated industrial ef- (GMOs) or any culturally charged technology— ficiency techniques (“Taylorism”) characterized especially where major cultural units such as the the heavy industry cluster, whereas a far more net- United States and the European Union disagree worked, flexible structure began to evolve during fundamentally—it is essential to understand this the information cluster (Castells 2000). dimension (Nye 2003). For the industrial ecologist, this is a some- These technology clusters illustrate sev- what daunting landscape, for it implies couplings eral critical points regarding technology. Most

172 Journal of Industrial Ecology FORUM important, technological change cannot be un- a technology of any significance will destabilize derstood as an isolated technocratic event. existing institutions and power relationships and Rather, it represents movements toward new, lo- thus, to some degree, cultural assumptions. Ac- cally stable, earth systems states. These states cordingly, it will be opposed by many. To the ex- integrate natural, environmental, cultural, theo- tent that such opposition is successful, it will not logical, institutional, financial, managerial, tech- halt the evolution of technology, but, in a glob- nological, built, and human dimensions and even alized culture, technological leadership is likely construct our sense of time and space. Technolo- to simply pass to other cultures where opposition gies do not define these integrated earth system is less effective. Second, projecting the effects states, except by convenience, but technologi- of technology systems before they are actually cal evolution can destabilize existing clusters and adopted is not just hard but, given the complex- create conditions leading to the evolution of new ity (especially reflexivity) of the systems, probably ones. impossible. Thus, for example, the time structure It is important to recognize that technology is that we moderns take for granted was not the a major means by which the human will to power time structure of prerailroad American agrarian is reified, expressed, and channeled. This is not society or European cultures; it is a product of our just an academic observation. Cultures that de- technology. Globally ordered time frames were velop technology and create frameworks within not just unpredictable a priori, they were diffi- which it can react on itself and so accelerate its cult to conceive in social and cultural systems own evolution thereby gain power over competi- that had neither any need for nor any concept tors. Because technologies create such powerful of unified and ordered temporal frameworks at comparative advantages between cultures, those a planetary scale. This raises a more subtle but cultures that attempt to block technology will, all equally important point: We are able to perceive things being equal, eventually be dominated by our world and create our cultural constructs only those that embrace it. Thus, technological evo- through the lens that our technology provides. lution will likely be difficult, if not impossible, Virtual reality, courtesy of information and com- to stop, despite the efforts of many in the en- munications technology (ICT), is only the lat- vironmental and sustainability communities. In- est manifestation of a long history of techno- deed, whether and how technology systems can logically mediated human conceptualizations of be moderated in the age of global elites become reality. important research questions extending far be- Unfortunately, however, the problem is not yond mere questions of regulation. As the rate just that the history of technological change of change of these systems continues to accel- indicates that technology systems are far more erate, they stretch the bimodal distribution be- complex than usually contemplated in industrial tween those who constitute the global elite and ecology literature and studies. If the history of who, primarily through education and culture, are technological evolution is a warning, it is an enable to prosper under such conditions and those tirely inadequate one for the wave bearing down who are left behind. The latter have a strong on us. Technological change, as suggested by tendency to seek stability in outmoded ideolo- the example of the railroads, is always potent, gies and fundamentalist movements and become but now we do not just have one or two en- an important, and unpredictable, modulator of abling technologies undergoing rapid evolution, technologies in particular cultures (e.g., the Bush we have the Five Horsemen: nanotechnology, Administration and its opposition to stem cell biotechnology, robotics, ICT, and applied cogni- research). tive science (these technologies are sometimes re- ferred to collectively as NBRIC5; Garreau 2004). These technologies in some ways are the log- Technological Evolution: The ical end of the chapter of human history that Five Horsemen began with the Greeks 2,500 years ago. Nan- The railroad example helps clarify several gen- otechnology extends human will and design to eral principles of technological evolution. First, the atomic level. Biotechnology extends it across

Allenby, The Industrial Ecology of Emerging Technologies 173 FORUM the biosphere, making us, over time, in the words of average life spans, with a high quality of life, are of environmental historian J. R. McNeill (2000), achievable in the next few decades. For example, “lords of the biosphere” (193–194). ICT gives the IEEE Spectrum, a mainstream technical jour- us the ability to create virtual worlds at will nal, ran a series of articles in 2004 on engineering and facilitates a migration of functionality to and aging that concluded that using “engineered information rather than physical structures. negligible senescence” to control aging will al- Robotics and biotechnology merge the biological low average ages of well over 100 within a few and technological realms, enabling integration at decades, and a number of experts claim that the the level of information systems. Cognitive sci- first people who will live to 150 with a high qual- ences rationalize cognition and thus enable ever- ity of life have already been born (IEEE 2004; De expanding cognitive networks that increasingly Grey and Rae 2007). merge human and technology systems, especially From an industrial ecology viewpoint, what is ICT. Think, for example, of the way that Google interesting about this age extension scenario (and has so dramatically extended human memory, any discussion of future technology should be re- creating a cognitive system that includes not garded as a scenario rather than a prediction) is just the human elements but vast swaths of Net that, even though the scientists and technologists technology, or the way that many militaries are are perceiving such possibilities as age extension building “augmented cognition” technologies— as increasingly probable, those in other areas of technologies intended to scan the battlefield for science, engineering, technology and policy, en- threats that are integrated into each soldier’s cog- vironmental and sustainability analysis, and, in- nitive systems (Hutchins 1995). deed, industrial ecology itself remain unaware of Current accelerating rates of technological these possibilities, despite their obviously chal- evolution are unprecedented. They have the ef- lenging implications. In an analysis with a rela- fect of dramatically extending the spaces within tively short time frame (current use of chlorine which humans can, intentionally and uninten- in industrial systems, e.g.), this is not necessarily tionally, impact existing systems and design new problematic, but as industrial ecology begins to ones. In doing so, they not only raise the level extend its analyses through time (e.g., long-term of complexity of systems that we must strive to patterns of material and energy flow or contribu- understand. Because they also give us rapidly in- tions to the dialogue on global climate change, creasing tools to design the human itself, they with its century-long time frames), ignorance of also render contingent much of what we have plausible technology scenarios becomes highly taken to be fixed. problematic. Equally challenging, it is becoming apparent that not just the earth but the human itself is in The Human as Design Space the process of becoming a human design project Consider for a brief moment some of the im- and that substantial changes in what it means to plications for industrial ecology of the NBRIC be human are probably inevitable. N. Katherine wave in just one area, human biology. As good Hayles (1999), for example, in her aptly named industrial ecologists, let us begin by defining rel- book How We Became Posthuman, traces the evo- evant life cycles. But this is not a matter of sim- lution of the posthuman through the concepts ple assumptions or curve extensions anymore. At of homeostasis, reflexivity, and, finally, virtual- one extreme, some predict the achievement of ity. Although Hayles is cautious about the im- “functional human immortality” within 50 years, plications of this ongoing and accelerating pro- either as a result of continuing advances in cess, some foresee enormous potential: Roco and biotechnology or as ICT and computational Bainbridge (2003), in a U.S. National Science power enable downloading of human conscious- Foundation report titled Converging Technologies ness into information networks (Moravic 1988; for Improving Human Performance, for example, Kurzweil 2005). Although such predictions are conclude, “With proper attention to ethical is- viewed by most experts as highly unlikely, there sues and societal needs, converging technolo- is a growing consensus that substantial extensions gies could achieve a tremendous improvement in

174 Journal of Industrial Ecology FORUM human abilities, societal outcomes, the nation’s spaces, are already going in that direction, and productivity, and the quality of life” (ix). They acceleration of such trends promises yet more continue, integration of virtual and real-world environments (generally called augmented reality; “Re- Examples of payoffs may include improv- ality” 2007). Where the human begins and ends ing work efficiency and learning, enhanc- in such systems is ambiguous (Hutchins 1995). ing individual sensory and cognitive capabilities, revolutionary changes in healthcare, Effects of technological convergence on the improving both individual and group cre- human form only one small area of research and ativity, highly effective communication tech- speculation; similar suites of possible scenarios niques including brain-to-brain interaction, are being developed in many other areas. It is ob- perfecting human−machine interfaces in- viously premature to regard most of these predic- cluding neuromorphic engineering, sustain- tions as anything more than possible outcomes. able and “intelligent” environments includ- Indeed, much of the thinking on technological ing neuro-ergonomics, enhancing human futures is marked by a strong tendency to fo- capabilities for defense purposes, reaching cus on a particular aspect of a technology or sustainable development using NBIC tools, its implementation and to implicitly hold other and ameliorating the physical and cognitive social, technological, or environmental systems decline that is common to the aging mind. fixed. This almost automatically ensures that the To some, the idea of the human becoming scenarios are implausible, because technological a design space presages a millenarian conflict of change, especially at this fundamental level and human versus technology (as per the movie The across virtually the entire technology salient, is Matrix); it is, however, equally likely to result integrated with most other human systems, and in the continuing merging of human and tech- under such conditions they, too, will be evolving nology to the end of greater economic efficiency and contingent. Additionally, except for the easy (along the lines of the anime movie The Ghost cases in which particular applications of these in the Shell). The Enlightenment Romantics had core technologies are already in the process of their Frankenstein model, and it remains power- being commercialized, it is very difficult to deter- ful today (as in Greenpeace’s Frankenfood public mine how probable even the most outre´ scenarios relations campaign). If history is any guide, this might be. The line between science fiction and is at best a temporary opposition; previous tech- tomorrow’s headlines has seldom been quite so nological advances, although admittedly of less blurred, in part because technologies frequently potency than the Five Horsemen, have generally tend to follow cultural precedents that are often seen a merging of individuals, institutions, and established in science fiction. Thus, for example, society with the new technologies (think of the the structure of virtual realities shows a strong re- printing press, which was perhaps the first mass semblance to the work of writers such as Gibson externalization of memory, similar to Google but and Stephenson—and, accordingly, not only is at a different scale). That integration seems to it hard to tell the difference between fiction and be the historical pattern should not be taken to soon-to-be fact, the latter is constructed, in fact, imply that changes will be merely incremental, by the former. especially in older concepts of what constitutes the human. Nor does it mean that we will not The Undermining of the see varietals of humans—as, indeed, the “digital Enlightenment—or at Least natives” that are comfortably embedded in their Industrial Ecology ICT networks may already be (Tapscott 2009). At the level of nature, it means that we should The integrated cluster of technology that is expect integrated human/natural/built earth sys- rapidly beginning to redefine our world is also tems, rather than those we currently idealize. In- providing the scientific and technological basis deed, some current “mashups,” in which represen- for dramatically obsolescing many of the assump- tations of the real world are mixed online with tions that underlie industrial ecology. The fol- virtual representations of data sets or imaginary lowing points stand out in particular:

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1. Industrial ecology must learn to un- not only can we not centrally control the derstand and include radically increas- global economy anymore, but it may be ing complexity of at least four differ- impossible to centrally conceptualize it for ent kinds—(1) static, (2) dynamic, (3) much longer, which suggests the reality of “wicked,” and (4) scale—as we realize we distributed collective intelligence rather must begin to design, engineer, and man- than the Cartesian individual cognition age integrated human/natural/built earth that has long been the model of Enlighten- systems at not just facility and indus- ment rationality. Industrial ecology must trial scales but at national, regional, and develop tools adequate to the complexity global scales (see Box 2). This complex- of the systems it purports to analyze. ity has already had profound institutional 2. An important element of this complexity implications in our era: Marxism in the is that it confirms an unavoidable relation- Soviet Union and China collapsed not ship among observer, frame of reference, from external conquest or even from Rea- and derivation of partial and contingent gan’s vaunted spending race but rather truth from underlying complex systems. because the centralized economic model Consider a simple example. If I am inter- adopted by large Marxist societies simply ested in the rates of crime in the city of became incapable of managing the com- Phoenix, I am also implicitly defining the plexity inherent in a modern industrial urban system by its political boundaries, economy (Kauffman 1995). And note that because most measured crimes are local, our economies, financial networks, and and statistics are kept on a jurisdictional technologies have become far more com- basis. If, conversely, I am interested in wa- plex since then. In what amounts to a chal- ter and Phoenix, I am implicitly defining lenge not just to policy but to the paths the system as including the Colorado River of analysis currently popular in indus- basin, not to mention American water law, trial ecology (e.g., mass flow accounting), patterns of tourism that make golf courses

Box 2 production and communication character- izing modern information dense societies. Complexity Wicked complexity arises from the psycho- Complexity is not a unitary concept. One logical and social dimensions of the anthro- way to parse complexity is by identifying pogenic world and its characteristic integrated four different components: static, dynamic, human/natural/built systems, which increas- “wicked,” and scale. Static complexity reflects ingly display the reflexivity and intentionality the numbers of parts and their linkages: For a of human systems and institutions. Reflexivity business manager, static complexity might re- is a key concept in wicked complexity: Infor- flect increasing numbers of competitors, reg- mation developed by humans about human ulations, jurisdictions, stakeholders, activists, systems is, by definition, a new part of the and treaties. For a technology system such human system that it arises from, and thus it as the Internet, static complexity could re- immediately affects and changes the underly- flect the increasing numbers of hubs and ing human system. Finally, there is the ques- linkages that constitute the physical frame- tion of scale: That the Anthropocene arises work underlying Internet services. Dynamic because humans are impacting not just local complexity arises as these factors interact in environments and resource regimes but the new and unanticipated ways and create con- global framework of physical, chemical, and stantly changing emergent behaviors and net- biological systems is new and challenging, in work configurations; this category becomes that no discipline or intellectual framework even more challenging given the acceleration enabling rational understanding at that scale of technological evolution and information yet exists (McNeill 2000; Allenby 2007).

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popular in Scottsdale, and xeriscaping ini- more unstable but renders that which looks tiatives. Yet in both cases the relevant out—including the field of industrial ecol- marker is Phoenix. What is happening, ogy and, indeed, even our selves and our simply, is that my query to the system calls individuality—more contingent as well. forth from an underlying complex world a The dramatic increase of fundamentalism particular network that is responsive to my across most belief systems and in most so- query. The networks that are of interest cieties reflects, in part, an effort to cre- in a particular situation will generally be ate a stable ground even as technology in- determined by the dialectic of the under- eluctably creates a future in which, as Marx lying world with the particular questions presciently noted, all that is solid melts being asked about it. There is a similar- into air (Marx and Engels [1872] 1998). ity to quantum mechanics here: What you Note that this does not mean that the post- perceive when you look at the system is modern solutions of absolute solipsism6 determined by the purpose for which you and relativism are valid (Lyotard 1984). are observing it. The system itself always It does mean, however, that if the mental remains more complex than you are able models and cultural constructs underlying to capture at any one time. industrial ecology are going to continue to 3. The corollary is that a complex system can be adaptive and valid, we must learn to un- only be defined in terms of the reasons for derstand them as contingent and thus eval- which a definition is desired. The query uate their continued validity, especially identifies the particular networks of the in the case of long-term or cross-cultural system that are relevant, and they, in turn, studies. define the boundaries of the system for 5. The traditional focus of industrial ecology the purpose of the inquiry. This reflexivity on material and energy flows is useful but complicates any discussion of a complex of increasingly limited relevance given the system and reduces the value of standard- complexity of the systems emerging in the ized or ideological approaches. Our under- real world. Information and cultural struc- standing and the complex nature of real- tures, especially those associated with rad- ity are not congruent but coupled weakly ical technological evolution, cannot con- through our queries to the latter. The im- tinue to be regarded as beyond the pale of plications for industrial ecology are pro- industrial ecology. The point is not that found: Industrial ecology by its framework, many industrial ecology studies should not which defines what appropriate industrial focus on material and energy flows; rather, ecology queries and assessments are, also it is that the field as a whole must learn significantly bounds the validity of its find- to treat cultural and informational realms ings. Failure to understand and explore with the same sophistication and serious- the implications of this dynamic in part ness as physical realms. explains the continuing conflict between 6. Ideology and rigid worldviews are par- those who view industrial ecology as an ticularly problematic at the dawn of the “objective” science and those who value it anthropogenic world, which, as we have only inasmuch as it directly supports envi- seen, is characterized by exceedingly rapid, ronmental activism. unpredictable, and profound change in 4. The accelerating evolution of technol- fundamental relationships and systems in- ogy systems, especially ICT, combined volving natural, built, and human compo- with the postmodern fragmenting of time, nents of extraordinary static and dynamic space, and culture, dramatically decreases complexity. To begin with, any ideology the stability of all cultural constructs. In is necessarily a simplification of reality; in our particular case, it has two profound ef- fact, that is usually an important part of its fects: It not only renders the social and mass appeal. But because the elements and cultural landscapes that we look out on structure of this simplification necessarily

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lie in the past, not the future, they em- fundamentalist backlash, not just within bed assumptions and implications that are virtually all major religions but within necessarily increasingly anachronistic in a those belief systems—environmentalism, period of rapid and discontinuous change. sustainability—that for many people, es- Moreover, ideology creates an “ends jus- pecially in secular societies, now begin tify the means” mentality; almost by def- to serve theological purposes. This is not inition, the power of the idea trumps the random opposition to modernity but is messy and contingent real world. In a world generated by the fact that, as rates of tech- where technology coupled to state and in- nological change accelerate, increasing dustrial power increasingly exercises broad numbers of people in every society are dis- leverage, the damage that authoritarian enfranchised. They are incapable of keep- ideologies can generate because of this ing pace with continuing change; unable mind-set becomes truly dangerous. Addi- to integrate into the information webs that tionally, as part of the elevation of the idea increasingly define human cognition; and over the real, ideology cuts off informa- aghast at the changes in lifestyle, income tion transfer and dialogue and can thus distribution, relative power relationships, limit dialogue and development of options and changes in sexual and family roles and at precisely the time when adaptation to structures that have resulted. And these new conditions would benefit from such groups have not yet begun to understand discussion. It is not, then, just that ideolo- the degree to which their fundamental gies are generally questionable, although values are rendered contingent by that many of them seem to be in application, self-same progress. Thus, accelerating as any familiarity with the 20th century technological change can only increase would confirm; rather, it is that ideologies opposition to itself—yet it is an impor- are especially dubious in a period of rapid, tant component of cultural dominance. discontinuous, and fundamental change at For those for whom Enlightenment- a global, multicultural scale. For industrial representative democracy is an important ecology in particular, which is in many value, then, technological change creates a ways contested ideological terrain (scien- difficult conundrum: The more it succeeds, tism vs. environmentalism being the most the more it creates an activist opposition obvious conflict at this point), the dangers that hobbles it in democratic cultures, giv- of ideological bias are insufficiently appre- ing the advantage to more autocratic cul- ciated. tures where the elite are able to exercise 7. If industrial ecology as a field is to inte- control. A prediction? No. A reasonably grate its context into its analyses appro- probable scenario that should be of con- priately, it is important to recognize at cern to industrial ecologists? Yes. least some of the difficult policy implications of increasingly rapid technolog- Reinventing the Enlightenment, ical change and the entrained cultural, and Industrial Ecology: A social, economic, and institutional impli- Continuing Saga cations (indeed, even the theological, as discussed in the appendix, available as Industrial ecology is solidly grounded in En- Supplementary Material on the Web). For lightenment thought, and thus it is rendered con- example, it may well be the case that tingent as the Enlightenment itself is—and it the changes we are currently beginning must adapt in the same way. Begin by observ- to experience mark, in fact, the end of ing that complexity and radical contingency have the great Enlightenment project of rad- undermined the Enlightenment as it is now con- ical democratic power. Indeed, the rates structed and as it now underpins global culture. of change we are now experiencing have In some ways, this is desirable, as it opens new already created an increasingly potent options for continued evolution of cultures, the

178 Journal of Industrial Ecology FORUM species, and individuals. Moreover, this is only an transcended yet again by the Enlightenment as extension of the dynamic that has always char- process—and if industrial ecology is to live up acterized the Enlightenment and, arguably, must to its promise, this also must become part of the characterize any cultural system that successfully way industrial ecology thinks of itself. Indeed, evolves to dominate regional and global polities. in some ways industrial ecology is the Enlight- Thus, the Enlightenment as global culture has enment writ small: a nascent effort to apply the succeeded, ironically, because it uniquely car- tools of rationality to increasingly complex, inte- ries within it the seeds of its own negation as grated sociotechnical systems. Thus, the research a uniquely “true” or “valid” culture. Indeed, the agenda suggested by this analysis should be inter- strongest critics of the Enlightenment have been preted in part as an effort to include self-critique internal, from Rousseau ([1754] 1964), whose and even self-negation as integral parts of indus- criticism has become internalized to much of the trial ecology itself—something to be desired, not environmental discourse, to Marx, to Freud, to fought against. Darwin, to postmodernists of all stripes. Thus, thinkers such as Rorty (1989) have emphasized two paradoxical observations: Possible Elements of a Research Agenda 1. Only a structure that, like the European Enlightenment, contained its own critique Although the challenge of understanding and negation within itself could possibly these complex sociotechnical systems is daunt- become the basis for a globalized cultural ing, it is not impossible, and even at this early framework in a multicultural world. stage one can suggest a few areas of research that 2. The Enlightenment framework succeeds might prove fruitful in expanding industrial ecol- only to the extent that it continues to ogy in appropriate ways. A few are listed below; negate itself as a unique source of “truth.” they are best viewed as illustrative rather than In these cases, the Enlightenment tradi- deﬁnitive. tion not only has been the source of the 1. An obvious focus is complexity and com- negation but has itself been transformed, plex adaptive systems and how their study transcended, and made more universal and may be incorporated into mainstream in- encompassing by the dialectic generated dustrial ecology. This has already been sug- by the negation. This dialectical process, gested by some industrial ecologists (e.g., perhaps most closely associated with Marx Ehrenfeld 2004; Allenby 2006) and would and Hegel, is itself an important and self- involve theoretical, applied, and method- conscious facet of the Enlightenment; in ological domains. For example, network fact, much Romantic thought, with the theory is an area of intense interest right important exception of Rousseau, saw the now (Barabasi 2002) and offers a new way dialectic as the process by which human of both framing complex industrial ecology progress toward a reintegrated high civi- problems and integrating social, legal and lization (in religious terms, recovery from regulatory, economic, technological, and the Fall, which was itself seen as introduced natural systems in industrial ecology anal- by intellectualization) occurred. yses. An important topic within this cate- As the original Enlightenment evolved gory is applying our understanding of how through modernity, the relatively integral world- system structure constrains current choices view it entailed shattered against the increasing and future evolution of the system (Kauff- complexity of the cognitive networks that it en- man 1995); tightly coupled systems can be abled: So now must the science and technology far less adaptive than more loosely coupled enterprise, and industrial ecology as a part of systems, but too loose a system is incapable it, transcend—not deny or oversimplify, but in- of evolution. ternalize and transcend—that complexity anew. 2. The resilience of complex human/built/ The Enlightenment as explicit framing has been natural systems is an important framework

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that should become part of the industrial trial ecology work and cross not just disci- ecology research agenda. Although it is plines but the “two cultures” divide identi- similar in some ways to the cultural con- fied by C. P. Snow ([1959]2001), they are struct of sustainability, resilience has been unavoidably an element of systemic indus- more rigorously explored in both the com- trial ecology study and should be under- plexity and the ecological literatures, and stood as such (Allenby 2008a, 2008b). some efforts have been made to apply the 5. Whether earth systems engineering and concept to systems such as cities (Fiksel management is an extension of industrial 2003; Allenby and Fink 2005). Resilience ecology or not, the research areas that studies are not only topical and policy rele- have been identified in that domain, such vant, but at this early stage of development as sustainable infrastructure and sustain- each such study potentially provides valu- able urban systems, have clear overlap with able theoretical input as well. industrial ecology expertise and issues of 3. Emerging technological systems should be- complex adaptive systems (Allenby 2007). come a staple of industrial ecology re- Thus, some effort to integrate across those search for a number of reasons, most im- areas, as well as more traditional ones, such portantly because such technologies have as ecological economics, should continue. the potential to undermine many of the In this light, the desire to define indus- assumptions underlying current industrial trial ecology in contradistinction to other ecology research programs. Among the related fields may be unhelpfully constrain- particular issues that require further re- ing the identification of important research search is the vexed question of the de- areas; more important than ongoing degree to which emerging technologies can bate, perhaps, is the development of an in- be “managed” or constrained; current ef- dustrial ecology capability to work across forts to stop genetically modified agricul- such systems gracefully, regardless of what tural organisms or stem cell research, as the resulting study is called. well as sustainability studies along the lines 6. Adjustment to rapid change requires de- of “go 50 years out and backcast,” indi- velopment of knowledge of options, both cate that our knowledge of the dynamics technological and social. Creating and ex- and behavior of such systems is naive at ploring robust option spaces is an area that best and willfully blind at worst. Equally is seldom explored and sometimes actively important, it becomes apparent that even discouraged, as in the case of geoengineer- institutions that require knowledge of the ing options for climate change mitigation, evolving technological frontier have only but, as a general matter, the more options a partial grasp of the overall technological one has available, the more robust and ra- project at this point (e.g., NRC 2005; CIA tional the reaction to unanticipated con- 2008), which suggests that research iden- sequences can be. tifying reasonable scenarios for emerging technologies and exploring their implica- Conclusion tions remains an important priority. That we do not understand the world we have It is always difficult to perceive correctly dur- already created, much less the one we are ing periods of rapid change, and there is a well- studiously working to create, is a huge chal- known tendency to overestimate the changes oc- lenge to our ability to act rationally, ethi- curring in one’s own time. Nonetheless, the broad cally, and responsibly. and accelerating wave of technological evolution 4. At the scale of these complex systems, ethi- in which, by all indications, we are embedded ar- cal and theological issues cannot be evaded guably constitutes a period of unprecedented and and must be understood as integral parts fundamental physical, emotional, psychological, of the system. Accordingly, although such and cultural change. The increasing range of hu- issues are far beyond most current indus- man technology and design, from the nano scale

180 Journal of Industrial Ecology FORUM to global systems to the human itself as design framework. It is, by understanding industrial ecol- space, puts virtually all of our disciplines, intel- ogy as embracing the complexity of the techno- lectual frameworks, and beliefs in play, in ways logical world that continues to evolve around us, that they have not been before. As this happens, to do our part in raising the contingent rationality we also unintentionally but powerfully under- of the Eurocentric Enlightenment that is passing mine most of the mental models, cultural con- into the wisdom of a new global, multicultural structs, and institutional systems we have created Enlightenment. It is perhaps our most profound to structure our relationships with ourselves, our challenge, not just as industrial ecologists but as institutions, our politics, and our conceptualiza- sentient individuals: tion of our role in the universe and relationship He, only, merits freedom and existence to our deities. We and our world are contingent in a way that, despite the massive changes we Whowinsthemeverydayanew. have experienced in past waves of technology, we have never been before. Clearly, we will need —Goethe, Faust to reconstruct our world, and even ourselves, on the run, as it were. Acknowledgements This is potentially a profound challenge to industrial ecology, which stands at a crossroads. This work was supported by a grant from the As a field, industrial ecology can simply become a Metanexus Institute to promote dialogue and re- relatively minor and increasingly unimportant set search among the sciences, religion, theology, of tools focused on material and energy flows— and philosophy. Portions of this article are based indeed, this is the current path, and it is by far the on the Templeton Research Lecture given at Ari- more comfortable one. Increasingly irrelevant we zona State University on October 22, 2007. I may become, but at least we will have a defined would also like to recognize the contributions by boundary and set of tools. three anonymous reviewers of earlier versions of But that is to overlook the obvious complex- this article, although I remain solely responsible ity and increasingly integrated structure of the for content. regional and global human/built/natural systems, and their emergent behavior, that characterize Notes the anthropogenic earth. This perspective calls for a reinvigorated industrial ecology, one that 1. Although it has been interpreted differently in dif- extends beyond the material and energetic pat- ferent eras, American exceptionalism generally refers terns to the cultural, informational, and techno- to a belief that America differs qualitatively from the rest of the world in its history, institutional logical systems within which they are defined and structure, and ideals and thus plays a unique role in determined. This new industrial ecology will arise world culture and history. from but cannot be defined by our past. It cannot 2. Movie of Robert Oppenheimer recounting his consist of cultural constructs and mental models reaction to the Trinity Test. National Science that are already anachronistic, even if we cannot Digital Library. www.atomicarchive.com/movies/ bring ourselves to admit that just yet. It cannot movies.shtml. be simple, for simplistic solutions and visions are 3. Manifest destiny, a term first popularized in the dysfunctional in a world that is uncertain, un- 1840s, refers to the (American) doctrine that the predictable, and complex, a melange´ of cogni- United States was intended by God to extend from tive networks in dances and patterns that, for the the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans. Its more ex- most part, we do not even perceive yet. But it is cessive proponents occasionally suggested that the doctrine required that the United States absorb important to understand where we have choices Mexico, Canada, or other territories. and where we do not. In particular, our choice is 4. The Enlightenment was the period in European not the anthropogenic world, for that is already history around the 17th and 18th centuries when upon us. Rather, it is whether to grow into our re- reason replaced religion as the source of author- sponsibilities, to be rational, ethical, and authen- ity and the primary mechanism for exploring hu- tic within a contingent and constantly evolving man and natural systems, led by such thinkers as

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Supplementary Material Additional Supplementary Material may be found in the online version of this article: Appendix S1. Theological Implications of Technological Evolution. Please note: Wiley-Blackwell are not responsible for the content or functionality of any supplementary materials supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

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