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Romania Market Overview Real Estate Highlights H1 2018

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Romania Market Overview Real Estate Highlights H1 2018 Romania Market Overview Real Estate Highlights H1 2018 In Romania ROMANIA MARKET OVERVIEW H1 2018 YoY dynamics of the economy “decelerated from 6.7% in 4Q2017 to 4% YoY in 1Q2018, the slowest pace since 3Q2015. Total stock in Bucharest reached 2.6 million sq m at the end of H1 2018 for class “A & B office buildings. 04 06 10 Romanian Economic Office Investment Overview Market Market 12 14 16 Retail Land Industrial Market Market Market By the end of 2018 approx. 170,000 sq m new retail space are “forecast to be delivered. 18 20 21 Residential Project Property Market Management Taxation 22 Legal Aspects The housing prices in Romania increased “in Q1 2018 by 1.4% compared to Q4 2017. In H1 2018, the modern industrial stock “in Bucharest doubled in comparison with 2015. Contents 2 | KNIGHTFRANK.COM.RO KNIGHTFRANK.COM.RO | 3 ROMANIA MARKET OVERVIEW H1 2018 As regards the supply-side there can be noticed the increase of the primary sector by Romanian Economy 6.7% YoY during January−March. The value added in IT&C also climbed by The convergence 5.4% YoY in 1Q2018. At the same time, the domestic industry advanced by 4.4% YoY, an evolution towards potential supported by the exports’ impulse and by the relaunch of the public investments. Dr. Andrei Radulescu The cyclical component trade/auto- Director Analiza moto repair/transport and warehousing/ Macroeconomica HORECA also rose by 3.7% YoY. On the Banca Transilvania other hand, the construction sector adjusted by 2.1% YoY in 1Q2018. According to the flash estimates of the National Institute of Statistics the Romanian This evolution confirms the maturity phase At the same time, the private consumption with the exports during 2018−2020: annual economy slightly accelerated in 2Q2018 of the post-crisis cycle, in a context of (the main component of the GDP) climbed average paces of 8.6% vs. 6.9%. (4.1% YoY) and rose by 4% YoY in 1H2018. diminishing convergence among the main by 5.8% YoY in 1Q2018, due to the increase of The global For the labour market we forecast the In Romania economies and accumulation of several the real disposable income of the population In the core macroeconomic scenario Banca economy change of the trend (from improvement to YoY dynamics macro-financial challenges in the emerging (the net average real wage rose by 6.6% YoY) Transilvania forecasts the deceleration of increased in deterioration) in the following quarters. of the economy and developing countries. “2Q2018 by the and the positive climate in the credit and real the YoY growth pace from 6.9% in 2017 to “decelerated from In this scenario the annual average rate of 4.3% in 2018, 3.5% in 2019 and 3% in 2020. As regards the supply-side analysis there slowest pace estate markets. unemployment (the structural component) 6.7% in 4Q2017 to In other words, we expect the convergence can be noticed the deceleration of the since 3Q2017, We underline that fixed investments climbed may decline to 4.5% in 2018, but would 4% YoY in 1Q2018, of the growth pace towards potential, manufacturing, due to the intensifying global according to the increase to 4.8% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020. the slowest pace by a higher pace compared with the private with prospects for negative output gap in trade tensions. However, the services sector PMI Composite since 3Q2015. consumption in 1Q2018, for the first time 2019 and 2020, as can be noticed from the In our view the main risk factors to the accelerated last quarter (the best dynamics indicator since 2015, as can be noticed in the figure figure below. dynamics of the domestic economy in since 3Q2014), given the incorporation of the computed below. The inventories also contributed by the short and mid-run are: the global and Digital Revolution. by JPMorgan This scenario is supported by several factors: 1.7pp to the GDP growth pace in 1Q2018. European macro-financial developments, and Markit the maturity of the global and European The US GDP increased by 2.8% YoY in including the evolution of the risk perception Economics. On the other hand, the government post-crisis cycle, the rebalancing of the 2Q2018, the highest pace since 2015, being on the emerging markets and the global consumption adjusted by 3.4% YoY during domestic policy-mix and the deterioration noticed the advance of the fixed investments trade tensions; the economic policy-mix, January−March this year. of the leading indicators (the economic by 5.5% YoY, an evolution supported by the the public tensions, the deterioration of the confidence indicator diminished to the affordable level of the real financing costs and Last, but not least, the imports continued to macroeconomic equilibria and the delay lowest level since September 2014). by the implementation of the fiscal reform. increase by a higher pace compared with the of the structural reforms in Romania; the exports in 1Q2018 (11.4% YoY vs. 8.1% YoY). However, we point out that we may upwardly regional climate. On the other hand, the Euroland economy revise the scenario if structural reforms continued the deceleration process (2.2% YoY accelerate. in 2Q2018, the slowest pace since 1Q2017), GDP, private consumption and fixed investments GDP vs. potential GDP in Romania given the global challenges and the fading YoY (%) According to BT macroeconomic scenario YoY (%) 1998 out of the impact of the unprecedented -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 the investment cycle would continue, given 2020 1999 10 expansionary monetary policy. 1Q10 the exports’ impulse, the low level of the 2Q10 2019 2000 8 3Q10 GDP real financing costs, the relaunch of the In China the GDP decelerated to 6.7% YoY 4Q10 6 1Q11 public investments, the competitive level 2018 in 2Q2018, the weakest growth pace since 2001 2Q11 of the costs and the geo-strategic position 4 3Q2016. 3Q11 4Q11 of Romania. In this scenario the fixed 2017 2 1Q12 2002 In Romania the YoY dynamics of the 2Q12 investments may increase YoY by 4.9% in 0 3Q12 consumption Private economy decelerated from 6.7% in 4Q2017 2018, 3.4% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020. 4Q12 -2 to 4% YoY in 1Q2018, the slowest pace 1Q13 2016 2003 2Q13 As regards the private consumption we -4 since 3Q2015. The domestic demand had a 3Q13 4Q13 forecast YoY growth paces of 6% in 2018, -6 contribution of 5.8pp to the growth pace, an 1Q14 5.8% in 2019 and 5.2% in 2020, an evolution 2015 evolution supported by the expansionary 2Q14 2004 3Q14 supported by the positive labour market policy-mix. 4Q14 1Q15 climate and by the low level of the real 2Q15 2014 There can be noticed the continuity of the 3Q15 interest rate. 2005 4Q15 investment cycle, with the gross fixed capital 1Q16 2Q16 Fixed investments On the other hand, the manoeuvre room of formation climbing by 6.3% YoY in 1Q2018, 2013 2006 3Q16 the government consumption is limited unless given the influence of several factors: the 4Q16 1Q17 the Administration implements consolidation exports’ impulse, the relaunch of the public 2Q17 2012 2007 3Q17 measures, given the high level of the public investments and the affordable level of 4Q17 deficit (risk of getting over 3% of GDP). 2011 2008 GDP the real financing costs (the increase of the 1Q18 2Q18 2010 2009 nominal interest rates was counterbalanced At the same time, we expect the imports Potential GDP by the acceleration of inflation). Source: Eurostat, AMECO, INS to present a better performance compared Source: BT estimates and forecasts based on Eurostat database 4 | KNIGHTFRANK.COM.RO KNIGHTFRANK.COM.RO | 5 ROMANIA MARKET OVERVIEW H1 2018 RENTS and Expo Business Park (36,500 sq m) in the new emerging business hub, Presei Libere Rents stayed similar to previous years. Prime Square; following the same number of sq m, headline rents remained unchanged and were Prime rental Office Market Vastint is finalisaing the third building of reported at around €18–18.50/sq m/month. levels remain stable at Timpuri Noi Offices (20,000 sq m) and VACANCY “18.5 €/sq m/ Business Garden (41,300 sq m). Other large The vacancy rate for Class A and B office month. projects such as Anchor Plaza Metropol Total stock in Bucharest buildings is on a downwardtrend: the market (36,000 sq m), the third phase of Globalworth reached 2.6 million sq m at is experiencing a vacancy of 9%. Campus (30,000 sq m), Globalworth Square the end of H1 2018 for class (29,700 sq m), The Bridge B (25,000 sq m), “A & B office buildings. The latest vacancy indicators are deciding The Light Project (23,000 sq m), Equilibrium the most sought after submarkets, as it I (20,300 sq m), Daniel Danielopolu follows: Calea Floreasca/Barbu Vacarescu (7,000 sq m) and Calea Victoriei 109 with a continuous decrease in vacancy rate, (6,000 sq m) are contributing to the reaching today 2%, and CBD with one of its substantial growth of the expected supply. lowest vacancies in years – 3%. Rounding up the projects on the second half FORECAST of 2018 and 2019 we get a roughly 473,000 By the end of the year we are expecting to of class A office space focused mainly in see another 149,500 sq m of class A offices Center West area (46%) where the current delivered ver eight projects: Orhideea vacancy rate is at 8% and Calea Floreasca/ Towers (36,900 sq m), Sema Parc Berlin Barbu Vacarescu area (21 %)with a vacancy (15,700 sq m), Unirii View (18,700 sq m), of 2%.
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