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| | 2019 2019 1 ISSUE PAPER WORKING

WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 01 | 6 FEBRUARY 2019 areThe authors grateful to Li ofHKUST Hanrui assistance. for IEMS research Jianwei Xu isaNon-resident ([email protected]) Fellow at Bruegel. GarciaAlicia Herrero Fellow ([email protected]) isaSenior at Bruegel. ALICIA GARCIA HERREROALICIA AND GARCIA JIANWEI XU ANALYSIS INITIATIVE: A BIG DATA OF ’S BELT ROAD AND COUNTRIES’ PERCEPTIONS perceptions oftheBRI. to attract attention inthemedia, itis notstatistically relevant forcountries’ tends to be. theotherhand, whileinvestment On undertheBRI also seems mentioned in the media, the more negative a country’s perception of the BRI of theBRI indifferent countries. We find that themore frequently is trade topics are whichperceptions these the inthenewsaffects with discussed investment. Finally, regression use we analysis to identify how thefrequency frequently theBRI. associated with Themost common topics are trade and We ourto identify use dataset articles also ofmedia thetopics that are most participate intheBRI that andthose donot. differenceperceptions in countries ofthe thatbetween BRI officially all having negative views. very Interestingly, there isnosignificant there are marked differencessome countrieswith in level, at thecountry as awhole, except , South have apositive perception oftheBRI, but and regions. We findthat the generallyBRI is positively All received. regions perceptions ofChina’s andRoad Belt Initiative (BRI) indifferent countries Drawing onaglobal database articles, ofmedia quantitatively we assess

1

푤푗,푝,푐−푤푗,푛,푐 푇푗,푐 = ∈ (−100, +100) 푤푗,푐 1 T = ∑푗 푇푗,푐 ∈ (−100, +100) 푁푐

2

3

4

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

-0.5 Sub-Saharan & (the Europe(the North Pacific and North EU) Non-EU) America and the Africa Media sentiment average

Negative Positive

Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa Zimbabwe

East Asia & Pacific

Middle East & North Africa

Europe (EU) Poland Sweden Finland Netherland

Europe (Non-EU) Ukraine Belarus

North America US

Latin America Venezuela & Caribbean South Asia

-4 -2 0 2 4 6

5

6

ToneBRITradeInvestmentiiiii=++++0123

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Maldives Bosnia and Herzegovina Guyana Poland Norway Iraq Bhutan Ecuador Nicaragua Ukraine Belgium Chile Czech Uruguay Vanuatu Ireland Moldova Denmark Australia Mexico Romania Montenegro South Africa Canada Bolivia Switzerland Venezuela Cuba Sri Peru Bahamas Hungary Sweden Bulgaria Estonia Argentina Haiti Germany Latvia Austria Turkey Spain Thailand Pakistan Panama Syria Slovakia Macedonia Finland Lithuania Tajikistan Serbia Costa Rica Greece Thrinidad and Tobago Colombia Zimbabwe Brazil Luxembourg Papua New Croatia Afghanistan Italy Belarus Viet Nam Ethiopia China Slovenia Uzbekistan Yemen Jamaica Portugal Jordan Laos Tanzania Liberia Botswana -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Tone(Non-BRI countries) Tone(BRI countries)

Negative Positive -3 6

Sub-Saharan Africa

Most negative: Most positive: Most frequent: A Chinese Most frequent: Investment in Most positive: infrastructure could Most negative: Expand foreign energy company The trade deficit trade within free BRI is expected is involved in an with China could help develop local None to increase trade and add new trade zone under alleged bribery be increased. the BRI. cooperation. scandal. economic opportunities. East Asia & Pacific

Most negative: Most frequent: Most positive: Most frequent: Most positive: Military Investment in Investment in Most negative: Connectivity is Connectivity is expansion may infrastructure is infrastructure is benefit to socio- benefit to socio- affect benefit to benefit to None economic economic sovereignty. development. development. development. development. Middle East & North Africa Most frequent: Most Most positive: Investment in Most negative: Most frequent: Most positive: negative: Investment in infrastructure Investment from Investment from Insecurity infrastructure Deglobalisation China has China has for workers development development trend is opposite could boost increased under increased under involved in could boost to BRI. BRI. BRI. BRI projects. economic growth economic growth Europe (EU)

Most frequent: Most positive: Most negative: Most positive: Most negative: Most frequent: The negative Trade Expand political Quality of Huge investment BRI is expected trade balance opportunities are influence products from may cause debt to increase trade with China may increasing under through BRI in China has problem. cooperation. grow. BRI. the . improved.

Europe (Non-EU)

Most frequent: Most negative: Huge investment may Most negative: Most frequent: Most positive: trigger debt problem; Most Improve Cooperation in trade Huge The process investment may The process needs to be positive: mutually and investment fairer (more local None under BRI can beneficial could be increased trigger debt be made fairer. problem labour and cooperation. under BRI. participation) Latin America & Caribbean Most negative: Most frequent: Most positive: Most negative: There exist issues of Countries could Most frequent: Most positive: Chinese There exist unlawfulness under the strengthen Most projects under BRI can provide investment in Jamaica issues of BRI; Huge investment cooperation BRI are in opportunities for other contributes to generate unlawfulness may cause debt with China infrastructure sector, countries to expand economic growth, under the BRI. problem. under the BRI. which produce a lot export to China and create job opportunities greenhouse gas and engage in international in local area. may cause trade. environment problem.

South Asia

Most negative: Most positive: Most frequent: Most negative: China engages Maldives may fall BRI will enhance Most frequent: Most positive: BRI in land into debt trap when cooperation between Insecurity for BRI could strengthen could strengthen win- grabbing in facing huge China and Maldives workers win-win cooperation win cooperation Maldives. investment from through increasing trade, involved in BRI between countries between countries China under the BRI. investment and . projects

1 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/26/c_136394003.htm 2 https://www.fes-connect.org/trending/south-africas-dilemma-in-the-belt-and-road-initiative-losing-africa-for-china/ 3 http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/big_read/30326442 4 http://www.espectador.com/internacionales/china-y-eeuu-superpotencias-camino-de-un-conflicto 5 https://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/vanuatu-should-beware-of--strategic-strings-20180411-h0ym9h 6 https://www.gisreportsonline.com/gis-dossier-the-south-china-sea,defense,2488.html 7 https://www.arabherald.com/news/253522676/is-says-it-killed-2-captive-chinese-nationals-in-pakistan 8 https://www.railfreight.com/corridors/2018/03/07/amsterdam-added-to-new-silk-road-with-new-rail-freight-line/ 9 https://geopolitica.eu/more/in-english/2724-china-poland-and-the-belt-and-road-initiative-the-future-of-chinese-engagement-in- central-and-eastern-europe 10 https://logistyka.wnp.pl/chinczycy-beda-hamowac-inwestycje-wzdluz-nowego-jedwabnego-szlaku,304330_1_0_0.html

11 https://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-and-one-belt-one-road-alternative-oil-scto-belarus-state-press-digest/ 12 http://www.capital.ba/zamke-na-kineskom-putu-svile/ 13 https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/bosnia-herzegovina-air-pollution-worsens-in-tuzla-while-govt-plans-for-more-coal- power 14 http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business-report/caribbean-must-dynamicaly-engage-with- china_126355?profile=1283&template=MobileArticle 15 https://www.stabroeknews.com/2017/news/world/07/01/sri-lankas-top-court-dismisses-case-chinese-industrial-zone-deal/ 16 http://afghanistantimes.af/chinas-role-key-in-afghanistans-stability/ 17 https://maldivesindependent.com/business/chinese-lending-puts-maldives-at-risk-of-debt-distress-136331 WORKINGPAPER

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