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Maldives: Overcoming the Challenges of a Small Island State Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2015 MALDIVES OVERCOMING THE CHALLENGES OF A SMALL ISLAND STATE COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MALDIVES OVERCOMING THE CHALLENGES OF A SMALL ISLAND STATE COUNTRY DIAGNOSTIC STUDY ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2015 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 www.adb.org; openaccess.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2015. Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9257-044-6 (Print), 978-92-9257-045-3 (e-ISBN) Publication Stock No. RPT157530-2 Cataloging-In-Publication Data Asian Development Bank Maldives: Overcoming the Challenges of a Small Island State Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2015. 1. Economic development 3. Maldives I. Asian Development Bank The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of said license as well as the Terms of Use of the ADB Open Access Repository at openaccess.adb.org/termsofuse This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Attribution—In acknowledging ADB as the source, please be sure to include all of the following information: Author. Year of publication. Title of the material. © Asian Development Bank [and/or Publisher]. https://openaccess.adb.org. Available under a CC BY 3.0 IGO license. Translations—Any translations you create should carry the following disclaimer: Originally published by the Asian Development Bank in English under the title [title] © [Year of publication] Asian Development Bank. All rights reserved. The quality of this translation and its coherence with the original text is the sole responsibility of the [translator]. The English original of this work is the only official version. Adaptations—Any adaptations you create should carry the following disclaimer: This is an adaptation of an original Work © Asian Development Bank [Year]. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not endorse this work or guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Please contact [email protected] or [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Notes: (1) In this publication, “$” refers to US dollars. (2) ADB recognizes “Hong Kong” or “Hongkong” as “Hong Kong, China.” Contents Foreword vii Preface viii Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations and Acronyms x Maldives Fast Facts xi Executive Summary xii 1. Development Performance 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Small Economy 3 1.3 Growth by Sources of Production 4 1.4 Macroeconomic Environment 6 1.5 Poverty and Inequality 10 1.6 The Challenges Going Forward 11 2. Critical Constraints to Growth 13 2.1 Low Returns to Economic Activity 15 2.2 High Cost of and Limited Access to Finance 36 2.3 Risks that May Become Critical in the Medium to Long Term 45 2.4 Conclusion 56 3. Critical Constraints to Inclusiveness 58 3.1 Poverty and Inequality Diagnostics Framework 58 3.2 Productive Employment Opportunities 59 3.3 Unequal access to opportunities 65 3.4 Access to Infrastructure, Land, and Finance 75 3.5 Social Safety Nets for Inclusiveness 76 3.6 Conclusion 80 4. Challenges the Maldives and Other Small Island Developing States Face 82 4.1 Introduction 82 4.2 Characteristics of Small Island Developing States 83 4.3 Consequences of the Maldives’ Unique Characteristics 85 4.4 Conclusions and Way Forward 96 5. Policy Recommendations 98 5.1 Removing Critical Constraints to Inclusive Growth 98 5.2 Achieving Inclusive Growth 99 5.3 Managing Key Challenges 104 5.4 Addressing Challenges Typical of a Small Island Developing State. 106 5.5 Conclusions 107 References 108 iii Boxes 1.1 The Maldives’ Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats 12 2.1 Summary of the Maritime Transport Master Plan 23 2.2 Snapshot of the Maldives’ Education System 27 2.3 Microfinance in the Maldives 42 2.4 Islamic Banking in the Maldives 43 4.1 Population and Development Consolidation Programs in the Maldives 83 Figures 1.1 Per Capita GDP and GDP Growth 2 1.2 Average Contributions of Major Sectors to GDP Growth, 1986–2014 (percentage points) 4 1.3 Growth Rates of Real GDP, Tourism, and Other Sectors, 1985–2014 (%) 4 1.4 GDP by Expenditure Component in South Asia, 2012 (%) 5 1.5 Composition of the Maldives’ Imports, 1995–2013 ($ million) 6 1.6 Inflation, 2000–2014 (percentage points, June 2012 = 100) 7 1.7 Fiscal Indicators, 2007–2014 (% of GDP) 9 1.8 Components of Government Expenditure in the Maldives, 1995–2014 (% of total expenditure) 9 1.9 Poverty Incidence by Region, 2010 (%) 11 1.10 Expenditure Share by Quintiles, 2003 and 2010 (%) 11 2.1 Investment in Selected Countries, 2006 and 2012 (% of GDP) 13 2.2 Foreign Direct Investment, Net Inflows, 1990–2013, ($ million and % of GDP) 14 2.3 Growth Diagnostic Framework 15 2.4 Share of Expenditure on Infrastructure in Total Government Expenditures, 1990–2013 (%) 16 2.5 Harbors and Airports 17 2.6 Container Cargo Handled at the Malé Commercial Harbor, Actual and Projected, 1995–2015 20 2.7 Flow of Goods from Malé Commercial Harbor to Regional Ports 21 2.8 Traffic at the Ibrahim Nassir International Airport, 1991–2013 25 2.9 Education Expenditure, 2008 (%) 28 2.10 Net Enrolment Rates, 2000–2014 (%) 28 2.11 Quality of Teachers, 2014 (% of teachers who are trained) 30 2.12 Expatriate Employment, 2003–2011 (‘000 people) 31 2.13 Expatriate Employment by Economic Activity, 2011 31 2.14 Local and Expatriate Employment by Economic Activity, 2006 and 2010 (‘000 people) 32 2.15 Local and Expatriate Employment by Occupation, 2006 and 2010 (‘000 people) 32 2.16 Foreign and Domestic Debt, 2008–2014 (% of GDP) 33 2.17 Growth of Claims on the Central Government and the Private Sector by Depository Corporations, 2003-2013 (year-on-year % change) 33 2.18 Current Account Balance, 2001–2014 ($ million) 35 2.19 Financial Account, 2000–2014 ($ million) 35 2.20 Lending Interest Rates 1996–2013 (%) 36 2.21 Interest Rate Spread, 1996–2013 (percentage points) 38 2.22 Domestic Credit Provided to the Private Sector, 1990–2013 (% of GDP) 38 2.23 Breakdown of Private Sector Loans and Advances, 2007–2014 (average share of total) 38 2.24 Rank in “Ease of Getting Credit” in the Maldives and Selected South Asian Countries 40 2.25 Capital Adequacy and Leverage Ratios, 2001–2012 45 2.26 Nonperforming Loans and Provisioning, 2008–2014 (Rf billion) 45 2.27 Electrification Rate, Selected South Asian Countries (% of total population) 46 2.28 Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1990–2012 47 iv 2.29 Electricity Consumption per Capita, Selected South Asian Countries, 1990–2012 (kWh) 47 2.30 Average Diesel Price in the Maldives, 2003–2013 (Rf/liter) 49 2.31 Monthly Fiscal Cost of Subsidies in the Maldives, 2010–2012 (Rf million) 49 2.32 Political Stability and Absence of Violence, 1996–2013 (percentile rank) 51 2.33 Control of Corruption, 1996–2013 (percentile rank) 52 2.34 Government Effectiveness, 1996–2013 (percentile rank) 53 2.35 Rule of Law, 1996–2013 (percentile rank) 53 2.36 Regulatory Quality, 1996–2013 (percentile rank) 54 2.37 Composition of Exports, 1980–2013 ($ million) 55 2.38 Index of Export Concentration Ratio of South Asian Countries, Average of 2010–2013 55 2.39 Technological Sophistication of Exports (EXPY), 1990–2013 56 2.40 Average Product Diversification (Products with Revealed Comparative Advantage), 1990–2013 56 3.1 Diagnostics Framework for Constraints to Reducing Poverty and Inequality 59 3.2 Employment and Real GDP Growth Rates, 1992–2013 (%) 60 3.3 Overview of the Labor Market, 2006 and 2010 (‘000 people) 61 3.4 Unemployment Rate, by Area, Region, Gender, Age Group, and Educational Attainment, 2010 (%) 62 3.5 Share of Employment, by Sector (%) 62 3.6 Share of Employment, by Sex (%) 63 3.7 Average Monthly Income, by Location and Gender (Rf ‘000) 64 3.8 Drug Abuse Cases, by Age Group, 2001–2012 64 3.9 Theft, Robbery, and Drugs-Related Arrests, by Age Group, 2010 64 3.10 Public Expenditure on Education in South Asia (% of GDP) 66 3.11 Educational Attainment among People Aged 15+, Employed
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