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Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives

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Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives Submitted by: RMSI Delivering a world of solutions Volume 1 & 2 May 2006 United Nations Development Programme Maldives Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives Volume 1: Main Report Submitted by A7, Sector 16 Noida, UP 201301, INDIA Tel: +91-120-251-1102, 2101 Fax: +91-120-251-1109, 0963 [email protected] www.rmsi.com May 2006 FOREWORD The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 has been a test of resilience for the people of Maldives. Long regarded as “safe” from such large scale disasters, the country was for the first time made aware of its vulnerability to high impact, ‘region-wide’ events like the tsunami. This recognition has urged measures to pragmatically integrate disaster risk reduction and risk management perspectives into the government’s planning and policy agenda. In retrospect, it is apparent that there was an acute need for a comprehensive examination of where the risks from multiple hazards are concentrated in Maldives and also, who are most affected by them. To fully address this now, UNDP in close cooperation with the national authorities has commissioned this study on Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives. This study provides a comprehensive risk analysis of Maldives with description of various hazards, vulnerabilities and potential damage and loss scenarios. The analysis provides the most complete hazard mapping exercise of the country till date and it is based on geographical evidence, historical data and projections of future hazards. It likewise assesses the complete range of vulnerabilities to multiple hazard events, which will inform coping and adaptive strategies for communities at risk. This study is positioned to provide key findings which will influence development planning in the Maldives, and support the Government in reducing disaster risks. To enable such policy planning for the national development programme, this study’s risk profiling will also play a critical role in deciding which islands can be designated as “safe islands”. The findings of this study have obvious implications for a wide range of Ministries to effectively incorporate risk and vulnerability reduction in their plans, strategies and national programmes. This report will also be a useful reference for disaster risk reduction and management practitioners, and agencies/organizations involved in disaster management for the country. The UN System through UNDP’s Disaster Risk Management Programme will continue to seek ways to strengthen policy planning through such and other comprehensive assessments. Patrice Coeur-Bizot Resident coordinator United Nations System in Maldives UNDP - RMSI Contents CONTENTS Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................................5 Glossary .............................................................................................................................................6 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................. 12 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... 13 1. Objectives ..................................................................................................................................................................... 13 2. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................... 14 3. Key Findings................................................................................................................................................................. 15 4. Recommendations .................................................................................................................................................... 17 5. Future Scope of Study.............................................................................................................................................. 20 Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................. 21 1.1 Background and Context ..................................................................................................................................... 21 1.2 Objectives of the Study ........................................................................................................................................ 22 1.3 Country Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 22 1.4 Structure of the Report ......................................................................................................................................... 23 Chapter 2: Methodological Framework ....................................................................................... 24 Chapter 3: Digital Base Map .......................................................................................................... 26 3.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................ 26 3.2 Meta Data of the Base Map ................................................................................................................................. 26 Chapter 4: Tsunami Hazard ........................................................................................................... 30 4.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 30 4.2 Indian Ocean Tsunami, 2004 .............................................................................................................................. 30 4.3 Tsunami Modeling Approach ............................................................................................................................. 31 4.4 Tsunami Hazard Zoning........................................................................................................................................ 38 Chapter 5: Storm Hazard ............................................................................................................... 39 5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 39 5.2 Methodology for Wind and Surge Hazards .................................................................................................. 39 5.3 Results and Discussion.......................................................................................................................................... 41 5.4 Cyclonic Wind Hazard Zoning ............................................................................................................................ 43 5.5 Storm Surge Hazard Zoning ............................................................................................................................... 45 5.6 Methodology for Rainfall Hazard...................................................................................................................... 48 5.7 Results and Discussion.......................................................................................................................................... 48 5.8 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) ....................................................................................................... 51 UNDP - RMSI 1 Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives Chapter 6: Earthquake Hazard ...................................................................................................... 52 6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 52 6.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................ 52 6.3 Seismic Hazard Zoning ......................................................................................................................................... 54 Chapter 7: Hazard of Sea Level Rise .............................................................................................56 7.1 The Hazard of Sea Level Rise .............................................................................................................................. 56 7.2 Future Climate Change Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 56 Chapter 8: Physical Vulnerability and Risk .................................................................................. 58 8.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 58 8.2 Risk to Buildings ...................................................................................................................................................... 58 8.3 Risk to Agriculture..................................................................................................................................................
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