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Singapore Land Transport Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date Singapore 23 November 2015 Transportation Singapore Land Industry Update Transport Joshua Lee, CFA Joe Liew, CFA Go Ahead wins Loyang bus parcel; focus Research Analyst Research Analyst (+65) 6423 5723 (+65) 6423 8507 should move to the sale of bus assets [email protected] [email protected] Goassets Ahead Group is the lowest bidder; Winners to date are foreign operators Focus stocks The Land Transport Authority (LTA) has awarded the contract for the second ComfortDelgro (CMDG.SI),SGD3.07 Buy Price bus (Loyang) package to Go Ahead Group PLC (GAG) for a five-year period Target SGD3.88 with an estimated total fee of S$497.7m. GAG will operate 25 bus services out SMRT Corporation (SMRT.SI),SGD1.44 Buy Price of the new Loyang Bus Depot and manage two bus interchanges – Pasir Ris Target SGD2.32 Source: Deutsche Bank and Punggol. The tender was evaluated on quality (greater weightage) and price factors. The bus contracting regime (GCM) will be implemented in two tranches from 3Q16 and the Loyang depot will be handed over to GAG in Bid Prices from Loyang bus package December 2015 to allow sufficient time for recruitment and training purposes. No. Company Country 5Y bid With this note, we transfer primary coverage of SMRT from Joe Liew to (SGDm) Joshua Lee. 1 Go-Ahead Group UK 497.7 Maintaining our 9% GCM EBIT margin forecast; no wins for incumbents 2 Woodlands Singapore 532.5 Transport While we note that the winning fee for Loyang is c.10% lower than the first (Bulim), there are more feeder services, which could lead to shorter routes and 3 Keolis France 535.2 fewer drivers hence lower costs for the second parcel. Therefore we maintain 4 SBS Transit Singapore 545.9 our 9% EBIT margin forecast. We continue to believe the SBST(CD subsidiary) / 5 Tian San / Kumho Singapore 569.9 SMRT will not win the third parcel given: (1) the track record of wins so far; (2) / HK they have been allocated nine out of 12 parcels; and (3) it is logical for the 6 SMRT Buses Singapore 598.1 government to bring in new players to promote a more competitive landscape. 7 Transdev France 603.7 8 Busways Group Australia 631.4 Sale of bus assets the next bus reform catalyst – should happen before Aug 16 Source: Land Transport Authority We estimate that a one-off cash sale of bus assets, factoring in 20% off NBV, will net S$900m (42c/share) and S$350m (23c/share) for CD and SMRT. Our asset sale scenario is more conservative than the leasing of buses to the government. Proceeds of the sale should be used to pay off debts for SMRT and fund acquisitions or fund a special dividend for CD. The recent waiver of the Bus Service Enhancement Programme (BSEP) loan for transfer of SBST/SMRT buses at NBV by the end of this year is a positive, in our view. Figure 1: Bus tender timeline : we do not expect any wins from incumbents Bulim Loyang 3rd package (DBe) Tender open 3-Oct-14 15-Apr-15 Nov-15 Tender close 19-Jan-15 14-Aug-15 Feb-15 Winner announcement 8-May-15 23-Nov-15 May-15 Implementation 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 Initial fleet 380 400 2021 expected fleet 500 500 24 (existing 16 SBST / Bus routes 25 (existing 22 SBST) 8 SMRT) Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Land Transport Authority In addition to GCM, rail reform and regulations on Uber should boost the sector An asset-light reform scenario for SMRT’s NSEWL in FYMar19 makes up 49c/share of our SMRT target price. An announcement of rail reform could see a rally similar to that of the GCM announcement in 2014. We also believe that private car apps will be subject to greater regulations next year, given the minister’s commitment to leveling the playing field. The Land Transport sector remains one of our top sector picks in Singapore hence we maintain Buy on CD / SMRT with target prices of S$3.88 / S$2.32 respectively. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong The views expressed above accurately reflect the personal views of the authors about the subject companies and its(their) securities. The authors have not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES PLEASE VISIT http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr; MCI (P) 124/04/2015. .
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