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Comfortdelgro Corporation Ltd 3 March 2017 Asia Pacific/Singapore Equity Research Leasing & Logistics ComfortDelGro Corporation Ltd (CMDG.SI / CD SP) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (02-Mar-17, S$) 2.50 RESEARCH BULLETIN Target price (S$) 3.35 Upside/downside (%) 34.0 Mkt cap (S$/US$ mn) 5,393 / 3,818 Quick Take: SBS emerged as the lowest Enterprise value (S$ mn) 5,014 Number of shares (mn) 2,157 bidder for Seletar bus package Free float (%) 90.0 52-wk price range (S$) 3.01-2.37 ■ SBS Transit lowest bidder amongst nine shortlisted for Seletar bus ADTO-6M (US$ mn) 16.3 package. The LTA announced that it has received nine tenders for the Target price is for 12 months. Seletar bus package, with SBS Transit emerging as the lowest tenderer with Research Analysts a five-year price of S$480.3 mn (figure 1). As a recap, the Seletar bus Louis Chua, CFA 65 6212 5721 package is the third and final bus package put up for competitive tender in [email protected] June 2016, which comprises 24 existing and two new services operated Christopher Siow from Ang Mo Kio, Yio Chu Kang and Yishun Bus Interchanges (details in 65 6212 3062 prior report). The tender is expected to be awarded by the end of March. [email protected] ■ Contract price implies S$3.7 mn per service per annum. Based on the five-year price of S$480.3 mn and a total of 26 services, this works out to S$3.7 mn per service per annum, lower than that of the first two public tenders (Figure 4) and our current assumption of S$4.1 mn for SBS's existing negotiated packages. However, we highlight that this is not directly comparable owing to differences in geography, bus and route profiles. Nevertheless, we think the shorter average route distance of 17.1km per service could have played a part. As the incumbent operator of eight current packages, and 63% of Seletar's routes by distance, we believe SBS's economies of scale were likely supportive of its competitive bid without compromising on margins. ■ Two-envelope process weighted for quality, but SBS should fare well. While the award is contingent on quality proposals submitted by the tenderers, we believe SBS should fare well in this aspect, given smooth operations thus far, vs. Tower Transit and Go-Ahead's operational issues since starting operations in 2016. We highlight that SBS has fared well under the Bus Service Reliability Framework since its introduction in February 2014, such that the LTA has tightened the baseline standard for the GCM since September 2016. Since then, there has been an overall 15% reduction in average additional wait times as well. ■ Modest c.1% accretion to CD 2018E PATMI if awarded. We have previously assumed that SBS will not be awarded the Seletar bus tender, and will lose the 13 existing services from 2018. Assuming 6.5% core bus margins, this would imply additional EBIT of $6.2 mn p.a., excluding inflation adjustments. This would imply a modest S$4 mn or 1.1% accretion to our 2018E PATMI estimates of CD, should SBS be awarded the tender. ■ Rated OUTPERFORM. We believe the change in disclosures has masked the strong profitability and cash flow generation in Singapore buses under the contracting model. We remain positive on CD, and expect the company to continue delivering on its track record of steady dividend & profit growth, with a 6% EPS CAGR to FY19E and 4.5% FY17E dividend yield. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 3 March 2017 Figure 1: SBS the lowest bid amongst 9 tenderers Figure 2: Details of 24 existing routes under Seletar S$ mn Distance Distance Price Price Service Operator Service Operator per (km) (km) (S$ mn) for 5 per service 24 SBS 49.5 269 SBS 8.5 years annum p.a 70 SBS 22.4 800 SMRT 6.9 SBS Transit Ltd 480.3 96.1 3.7 76 SBS 14.9 803 SMRT 2.9 SMRT Buses Ltd 514.5 102.9 4.0 130 SBS 16.3 804 SMRT 8.6 133 SBS 18.4 805 SMRT 6.9 National Express Group plc 536.8 107.4 4.1 135 SBS 33.3 806 SMRT 5.1 Tian San Shipping Pte Ltd / Kumho Buslines 538.8 107.8 4.1 138 SBS 27 811 SMRT 24 Jiaoyun Group / Travel GSH Pte Ltd 547.6 109.5 4.2 162 SBS 20.9 812 SMRT 14.9 Tower Transit Singapore Pte Ltd 575.8 115.2 4.4 261 SBS 4.8 850E SMRT 26 262 SBS 8.4 851 SMRT 24 The Go-Ahead Group Plc 576.3 115.3 4.4 265 SBS 16.1 852 SMRT 24.2 Busways Group Pty Ltd 581.8 116.4 4.5 268 SBS 16.8 860 SMRT 9.4 Woodlands Transport Holdings Pte Ltd 583.4 116.7 4.5 Current: SBS (13), SMRT (11). Average route distance: 17.1km Source: Company data, LTA, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, LTA, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Existing operators share by distance (km) Figure 4: Key aspects of the first two bus tenders 1st Tender (Bulim) 2nd Tender (Loyang) Operator Tower Transit Go-Ahead Tender award date 8-May-15 23-Nov-15 Commencement date May 2016 Sep 2016 Area Jurong West Punggol & Pasir Ris SMRT Depot Bulim Loyang 37% No. of bus routes 26 25 - From SBS Transit 17 22 - From SMRT 8 - - New 1 3 SBS Bus fleet 380-500 400-500 63% Contract duration (yrs) 5 5 Extension option (yrs) 2 2 Bids received 11 10 Contract value (S$ mn) 556 497.7 Contract fee per annum 111.2 99.5 S$ mn per service p.a 4.3 4.0 Source: Company data, LTA, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, LTA, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 5: Details of the eleven negotiated packages under the bus government contracting model No. Package Duration No. of services Service-years1 Average route Contract fee (years) distance (km)2 p.a. Existing New Total (S$ mn)1 SBS Transit: Average duration of 7.25 years, 196 services for total contract fee of S$5,322 mn 1 Bukit Merah 2 18 0 18 36 20.5 73.5 2 Sengkang - Hougang 5 27 3 30 150 20.4 122.5 3 Bedok 7 23 1 24 168 22.4 98.0 4 Tampines 8 24 3 27 216 20.4 110.2 5 Jurong West 8 24 2 26 208 14.2 106.1 6 Serangoon - Eunos 9 22 1 23 207 21.0 93.9 7 Clementi 9 24 0 24 216 23.3 98.0 8 Bishan-Toa Payoh 10 24 0 24 240 18.0 98.0 Total 196 1,441 20.0 800.0 Other operator: Average duration of 6 years, 77 services for total contract fee of S$1,865 mn 1 Sembawang - Yishun 4 23 1 24 92 30.4 95.8 2 Choa Chu Kang - Bukit Panjang 7 32 0 32 224 20.3 127.8 3 Woodlands 7 21 0 21 147 20.6 83.9 Total 77 467 23.5 307.5 Source: LTA, Credit Suisse estimates. 1. Based on Credit Suisse estimates assuming equal contract fees per service per year . 2. Based on CS estimates, using TransitLink data. ComfortDelGro Corporation Ltd (CMDG.SI / CD SP)2 3 March 2017 Companies Mentioned (Price as of 02-Mar-2017) ComfortDelGro Corporation Ltd (CMDG.SI, S$2.5, OUTPERFORM, TP S$3.35) Go-Ahead Group (GOG.L, 2001.0p) SBS Transit (SBVV.SI, S$2.37) Disclosure Appendix Analyst Certification Louis Chua, CFA, and Christopher Siow each certify, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 3-Year Price and Rating History for ComfortDelGro Corporation Ltd (CMDG.SI) CMDG.SI Closing Price Target Price Target Price Closing Price CMDG.SI Date (S$) (S$) Rating 4.0 13-May-14 2.12 2.28 O 14-Aug-14 2.54 2.50 N 3.5 05-Dec-14 2.59 * 11-Feb-15 3.14 2.90 N 3.0 14-Aug-15 3.11 * 29-Feb-16 3.01 3.70 O * 2.5 18-Jul-16 2.90 3.53 2.0 16-Aug-16 2.91 3.60 01- Jan- 2015 01- Jan- 2016 01- Jan- 2017 13-Feb-17 2.50 3.35 O U T PERFO RM * Asterisk signifies initiation or assumption of coverage. N EU T RA L The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received Compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities As of December 10, 2012 Analysts’ stock rating are defined as follows: Outperform (O) : The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* over the next 12 months.
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