. VI/2016 vol Contributors of this volume Roman Bäcker | Kazimierz Dadak | Zurab Davitashvili | Dariusz WEER Gawin | Paweł Kowal | Stanisław Koziej | Olga Lavrinenko | Warsaw Agnieszka Legucka | Agnieszka Magdziak-Miszewska | Jan Malicki | Larysa Myrogorodska | Justyna Olędzka | Teimuraz Papaskiri | East Vladimer Papava | Jan Piekło | Galyna A. Piskorska | Oleksii Polegkyi | Tetiana Poliak-Grujić | Natalia Yakovenko | Krzysztof Żęgota European Review Volume VI/2016 THE WARS OF RUSSIA OF WARS THE editorial discussion The Wars 1990-2015 STUDIUM EUROPYWSCHODNIEJ E UNIWERSYTET WARSZAWSKI P aac Potockich, Krakowskie Przedmiecie 26/28, 00-927 W arszawa of Russia Tel. 22 55 22 555, fax225522 222, e-mail:[email protected]; www.studium.uw.edu.pl R Gawin | Kowal | Koziej | Magdziak-Miszewska | Malicki Warsaw East European Conference INTERNATIONAL BOARD: Egidijus Aleksandravičius, Vytautas Magnus University Stefano Bianchini, University of Bologna Miroslav Hroch, Charles University Yaroslav Hrytsak, Ukrainian Catholic University Andreas Kappeler, University of Vienna Zbigniew Kruszewski, University of Texas, El Paso Jan Kubik, University College London Panayot Karagyozov, Sofi a University Alexey Miller, Russian Academy of Sciences Richard Pipes, Harvard University Mykola Riabchuk, Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Alexander Rondeli, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies John Micgiel, Columbia University Barbara Törnquist-Plewa, Lund University Th eodore Weeks, Southern Illinois University EDITORIAL COMMITTEE: Jan Malicki, University of Warsaw (Director of the WEEC – Warsaw East European Conference, chair of the Committee) John Micgiel (chair of the WEEC Board), University of Warsaw Wiktor Ross (secretary of the WEEC Board, University of Warsaw) EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Paweł Kowal ASSISTANT EDITOR Jan Jerzy Malicki LANGUAGE EDITOR Bolesław Jaworski ISBN: 978-83-61325-49-9 ISSN: 2299-2421 Copyright © by Studium Europy Wschodniej UW 2016 TYPOGRAPHIC DESIGN J.M & J.J.M. LAYOUT Jan Malik PRINTING Zakład Grafi czny UW, nr zam. /2016 STUDIUM EUROPY WSCHODNIEJ E UNIWERSYTET WARSZAWSKI Pałac Potockich, Krakowskie Przedmieście 26/28, 00-927 Warszawa Tel. 22 55 22 555, fax 22 55 22 222, e-mail: [email protected]; www.studium.uw.edu.pl Preface, Paweł Kowal . 7 Th e Wars of Russia. Warsaw East European Review Editorial Discussion . 9 I. RUSSIA. STATE, SYSTEM, PEOPLE Roman Backer, Evolution of Russia’s Contemporary Political System . 33 Justyna Olędzka, Socio-Political Changes in Russia after 1991 –“Escape from Freedom” or “Lost in Transformation”? . 43 Olga Lavrinenko, Determinants of Protest Attitudes: Subjective Well-Being, Value Orientations, and Intentions to Participate in Protest Actions in Russia . 55 Teimuraz Papaskiri, Reconsidering Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century . 69 Oleksii Polegkyi, Soviet Mythology and Memory of World War II as Instruments of Russian Propaganda. 77 II. RUSSIA – A DIFFICULT NEIGHBOUR Tetiana Poliak-Grujić, Implementing Eastern Partnership Initiative: Challenges and Obstacles . 93 Agnieszka Legucka, Russia’s Peacekeeping Operations in the Post-Soviet Space: “Mirotvorchestvo” Applied . 109 Krzysztof Żęgota, Th e Kaliningrad Region - Key to Security in East-Central Europe . 121 III. RUSSIA. PRICE OF AGGRESION Natalia Yakovenko, Galyna A. Piskorska, Th e Russian-Ukrainian Confl ict as a Th reat to European Security . 139 Kazimierz Dadak, Price of Aggression: Th e Impact of Sanctions on the Russian Economy . 151 Larysa Myrogorodska, Economic Triggers in Ukraine and Crimea in 2014-2020 . 162 Jan Piekło, OSCE “BIS”: A New European Security Initiative . 181 IV. MISCELLANEA Prof. Dr. Alexander Rondeli: In Memoriam . 191 CONTRIBUTORS . 201 Foreword ear readers, in your hands you hold the most recent volume of Warsaw East European Review, the yearly academic journal published by the Centre for DEast European Studies of the University of Warsaw. Previously, WEER was published as a follow-up to the Warsaw East European Conference – probably the largest Polish academic conference dedicated to Eastern policy, with well over a decade of tradi- tion. Th is year, we wish to widen the format of WEER somewhat, giving the publication a more monographic shape, thus the selection of articles and the editorial discussion of experts, that precedes and binds them into one volum e. Th is publication should find a place on the shelf of every scholar of East European issues, as well as amateur enthusiasts interested in the region. Following in the footsteps of last year’s WEEC, “Russia and its Neighbours”, we have prepared the volume entitled “Russia, its Neighbours and War”, and have invited scholars from over a dozen universities to contribute to it. Th e texts fall into three sections: the fi rst has to do with system changes in Russia, while the second concerns relations between Russia and its neighbours. Th e third and nalfi one attempts to address the most diffi cult question – Russia’s wars with its neighbours. More precisely, the tragedies we have recently observed almost as if we were on the spot, thanks to mass media. Th e Russian-Georgian War in 2008, the war with Ukraine and armed interven- tion in Crimea in 2014; these confl icts have opened a new chapter in Russia’s relations with its neighbours, as well as with the West. Th ey have severely damaged levels of trust in the region for many years to come, and put the question on the agenda – how far might the contemporary Kremlin go in its use of force? As the editorial team, we have no doubts that this subject-matter will fi nd a wide audience of interested readers. Th e year, our host, the University of Warsaw, celebrates the two hundredth year of its existence. On this occasion, we the editors wish the university all the best for the future, and also off er our heartfelt congratulations on this magnifi cent anniversary. Paweł Kowal 7 July 2016 WEEReview vi/2016 7 Th e Wars of Russia Warsaw East European Review Editorial Discussion with: Dariusz Gawin, Stanisław Koziej, Agnieszka Magdziak-Miszewska and Jan Malicki led by: Paweł Kowal Paweł Kowal1: Why don’t we start with a surprise for Ms Agnieszka Magdziak- Miszewska. Th is will be an excellent introduction to our discussion – a secret crypto- gram from the Polish embassy in Moscow to the Polish Foreign Ministry at the start of the Chechen War. As you know, it is very rare for them to declassify documents from the Th ird Polish Republic so soon. We can read the predictions that you wrote at the time of the start of the fi rst Russian war of the post-Cold War era, which were written between Christmas and New Year and signed Magdziak-Miszewska. Agnieszka Magdziak-Miszewska2: If Ambassador Stanisław Ciosek [who origi- nated from the Polish United Worker’s Party – editor’s note PK] didn’t entirely agree with what I was writing, he signed the cryptogram to the Foreign Ministry in Warsaw: “Ciosek from Magdziak”. When as the deputy ambassador I was carrying out the re- sponsibilities of chargé d’aff aires, naturally I signed with my own name. Kowal: I brought the cryptogram not only to give Madam Minister some enjoyment, but to return to the key – in my opinion – moment, at which the end of the breakup of the Soviet Union can be dated. If we understand the process of the breakup of the USSR 1 Paweł Kowal – WEER editor-in-chief, historian, political scientist, publicist. He works in the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences, College of Europe in Natolin and lectures and the Centre for East European Studies UW. He publishes on the topics of system transformation in Central and Eastern Europe. Co-creator of the Warsaw Uprising Museum; from 2005-2014, he was MP in the Polish Sejm and European Parliament. In 2006-2007, he was secretary of state at the Ministry of Foreign Aff airs. 2 Agnieszka Magdziak-Miszewska – Polish literary philologist, theatrologist, journalist and diplomat. In the years 1984-1989, she was head of section in the monthly Więź. Following this, in 1989-1991, she was director of the independent Centre for International Studies in Warsaw. In 1991-1995, deputy ambassador and plenipotentiary for the Embassy of Poland in Moscow. From 1995, she was deputy chief editor of Więź, and, as of 2001, programme director and coordinator of the Eastern Programme of the Centre for International Studies. At the same time, in 1995-1998, she was secretary of the programme advisory committee of the Centre for Eastern Studies. From 1998 to 2000 – adviser for Polish-Jewish relations in the Prime Minister’s Offi ce. Since 2000, she is a member of the International Auschwitz Council. In 2001- 2005, deputy ambassador, and then Consul General of Poland in New York. After returning home – chief adviser to the Prime Minister’s for Polish-Jewish relations. From 2006 to 2012, she was Ambassador of Poland to Israel, and after her return she served as adviser to the Minister of National Defence. WEEReview vi/2016 9 The Editorial Discussion: Russia, its neighbors and the war as such a process, and not just a moment in history, then I feel that the act in which this process is halted is the moment when federal troops cross into Chechnya. Th ey do not halt the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, or the “External Empire”, not some spheres of infl uence, but simply the breakup of that which was the fi rst seed, the heart of the Soviet Union – in other words, the Russian Federation. Th e First Chechen War was also about the non-disintegration of the Russian Federation, to stop the further breakup of the Em- pire, already after the formal dissolution of the USSR, when they had shrunk to just Rus- sia – in other words, the state of things before the creation of the Soviet Union in 1922. I propose that we start from this point. How do you interpret the role of war in contemporary Russian politics? How do you interpret the role of the army in contemporary Russia? I remember a story which Włodzimierz Bączkowski describes in his fundamental work “Rosja: Wczoraj i Dziś” [Russia: Yesterday and Today].