E.1 Demographic Profile Introduction Communities constantly change as the residents mature and marry, have children, and go through the various stages of life. In addition, people are continually moving to and from the community. By studying demographic trends, a community can better understand the changes taking place and plan for the future needs of its residents. This section provides a picture of county and municipal growth trends that affect the region now and are likely to affect it in the future. Analysis of population trends, coupled with the housing analysis chapter, provides a context for making decisions about land use and the nature and intensity of development to be either encouraged or discouraged. Data included in this chapter are derived from the United States Census Bureau. Description of Terms The following terms are found throughout this chapter and are listed as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. Educational attainment – The highest level of education completed in terms of the highest degree or the highest level of schooling completed. Family – A group of two or more people who reside together and who are related by birth, marriage, or adoption. Family household (Family) – A family includes a householder and one or more people living in the same household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption. All people in a household who are related to the householder are regarded as members of his or her family. A family household may contain people not related to the householder, but those people are not included as part of the householder’s family in census tabulations. Thus, the number of family households is equal to the number of families, but family households may include more members than do families. A household can contain only one family for purposes of census tabulations. Not all households contain families since a household may comprise a group of unrelated people or one person living alone. Household – A household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence. Income – “Total Income” is the sum of the amounts reported separately for wages, salary, commissions, bonuses, or tips; self-employment income from own non-farm or farm businesses; including proprietorships and partnerships; interest, dividends, net rental income, royalty income, or income from estates and trusts; Social Security or Railroad Retirement income; Supplemental Security Income (SSI); any public assistance or welfare payments from the state or local welfare office; retirement, survivor, or disability pensions; and any other sources of income received regularly such as Veterans’ (VA) payments, unemployment compensation, child support, or alimony. Per capita income – average obtained by dividing aggregate income by total population in a given area. Population – all people, male and female, child and adult, living in a given geographic area. Population density – the total population within a geographic entity divided by the number of square miles of land area of that entity measured in square kilometers or square miles. Poverty - Following the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB’s) Directive 14, the Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to detect who is poor. If Imagine West Shore represents a collaborative planning effort among Camp Hill, Lemoyne, and Wormleysburg to build upon our location, promote our diversity, and encourage opportunities for revitalization to realize our vision of serving as the gateway to the West Shore. E.1-1 Final Draft - January 9, 2009 Imagine West Shore the total income for a family or unrelated individual falls below the relevant poverty threshold, then the family or unrelated individual is classified as being “below the poverty level”. Historic Population Trends In this section, historic population trends in the Imagine West Shore (IWS) municipalities are compared to population trends in the state, county, and other boroughs of similar size in Cumberland County. These comparisons can be used to determine if changes in population are unique to a municipality’s certain circumstances, or if the trends are occurring on more of a regional or state level. Figure E.1.1 graphically shows population change between 1970 and 2005. Table E.1.1 lists numerical population data for this same time period and provides tabulations on the percent change in population over each decade. Figure E.1.1. Historic Population, 1970-2005 12,000 Camp Hill Borough 10,000 Lemoyne Borough 8,000 Wormleysburg Borough 6,000 Mechanicsburg Borough Population 4,000 New Cumberland Borough 2,000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Year Source: Cumberland County Planning Commission Trends in Pennsylvania and Cumberland County • During the 1970s and 1980s, population growth in the state was nearly stagnant. Population growth increased slightly in the 1990s, when the state saw a 3.4% increase in the number of residents. Between 2000 and 2005, population increase is estimated at 1%. • The population in Cumberland County has increased at a much faster rate than the state between 1970 and 2005. The most growth occurred in the 1970s, when the population increased by 13.6%. The population increased by nearly 10% in both the 1980s and the 1990s, and growth between 2000 and 2005 is estimated at 4.4%. Imagine West Shore represents a collaborative planning effort among Camp Hill, Lemoyne, and Wormleysburg to build upon our location, promote our diversity, and encourage opportunities for revitalization to realize our vision of serving as the gateway to the West Shore. E.1-2 Final Draft - January 9, 2009 Imagine West Shore Imagine West Shore Regional and Municipal Trends • Although Cumberland County has seen considerable increases in population between 1970 and 2005, the IWS region experienced population decline in each of these decades. The region’s population declined by 3,721 residents, 21%, between 1970 and 2005. • Camp Hill Borough was the only municipality in the region to see decline in each decade. Wormleysburg Borough saw a slight increase in population in the 1980s and Lemoyne saw a slight increase in the 1990s. However, it is estimated that the population of each borough has decreased between 2000 and 2005. • This trend is not unique to the IWS region. New Cumberland and Mechanicsburg Boroughs have also seen decreases in population between 1970 and 2005. • In general, the movement to the suburbs that began in the 1950s and largely occurred through the 1980s is reflected in the trends presented here. As people started to migrate away from the City of Harrisburg and the densely populated boroughs, the outer townships in Cumberland County and surrounding counties have seen their populations increase. In Cumberland County, the increases in population in the townships have outpaced the decreases that have occurred in many of the boroughs. • Recently, revitalization efforts in the city and many of the surrounding boroughs have sparked a renewed interest in the urban environment. These places are now seen as attractive destinations to many young professionals and older adults that are approaching retirement as well. The younger demographic appreciates the livelihood and sense of community; active adults appreciate the availability of daily conveniences within a short walk. • As the IWS revitalization efforts continue and the planning program is implemented, the region can expect to see a reverse in the trend of population decline that has occurred over the last 35 years. Table E.1.1. Historic Population Trends, 1970-2005 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005 Location 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 % Change % Change % Change % Change Pennsylvania 11,794,005 11,864,751 0.6% 11,881,643 0.1% 12,281,054 3.4% 12,405,348 1.0% Cumberland 158,177 179,625 13.6% 195,257 8.7% 213,674 9.4% 223,089 4.4% County Camp Hill 9,931 8,422 -15.2% 7,831 -7.0% 7,636 -2.5% 7,424 -2.8% Borough Lemoyne 4,625 4,178 -9.7% 3,959 -5.2% 3,995 0.9% 3,952 -1.1% Borough Wormleysburg 3,192 2,796 -12.4% 2,847 1.8% 2,670 -6.2% 2,651 -0.7% Borough IWS Region 17,748 15,396 -13.3% 14,637 -4.9% 14,301 -2.3% 14,027 -1.9% Total Mechanicsburg 9,385 9,487 1.1% 9,452 -0.4% 9,042 -4.3% 8,818 -2.5% Borough New Cumberland 9,803 8,051 -17.9% 7,665 -4.8% 7,349 -4.1% 7,127 -3.0% Borough Source: Cumberland County Planning Commission Population Projections The Cumberland County Planning Commission has developed municipal population projections for each of the municipalities in the county, and for the county as a whole, for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020. The Imagine West Shore represents a collaborative planning effort among Camp Hill, Lemoyne, and Wormleysburg to build upon our location, promote our diversity, and encourage opportunities for revitalization to realize our vision of serving as the gateway to the West Shore. E.1-3 Final Draft - January 9, 2009 Imagine West Shore projections are presented and discussed in this section. Figure E.1.2 graphically shows the projected population for the IWS municipalities as compared to New Cumberland Borough and Mechanicsburg Borough. Numerical population projection data for these boroughs, the region, and the county as a whole are shown in Table E.1.2. Population projections for the IWS region will be utilized in conjunction with recent housing trends to determine future housing needs for the area. This information will then be incorporated into the future land use plan for the region. Figure E.1.2. Historic Population and Population Projections, 2000-2020 12,000 Camp Hill Borough 10,000 Lemoyne Borough 8,000 Wormleysburg Borough 6,000 Mechanicsburg Borough Population 4,000 New Cumberland Borough 2,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year Source: Cumberland County Planning Commission Cumberland County Projections • The population in Cumberland County is expected to continue to increase in the coming years.