Moscow Defense Brief Your Professional Guide Inside # 2, 2010 MiG: Back From the Brink Advertisment CONTENTS Global Security #2 (20), 2010 The Arms Non-Reduction Treaty 2 PUBLISHER Centre for Analysis of International Relations Strategies and Russia’s Middle East Policy: All Tactics, No Strategy 6 Technologies Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Deal with Ukraine – CAST Director & Publisher the Political Aspects 8 Ruslan Pukhov Editor-in-Chief Mikhail Barabanov Defense Industries Advisory Editors RAC MiG: Back From the Brink 11 Konstantin Makienko Alexey Pokolyavin Iskander-M Missile Triggers Industry Upgrade Program 13 Researchers Russian Defense Procurement in 2009 16 Ruslan Aliev Sergey Denisentsev Polina Temerina Dmitry Vasiliev Arms Trade Editorial Office Russian Loans for Arms Contracts 20 3 Tverskaya-Yamskaya, 24, office 5, Moscow, Russia 125047 phone: +7 495 251 9069 Armed Forces fax: +7 495 775 0418 Russia’s Army Reform Enters New Stage 22 http://www.mdb.cast.ru/ To subscribe, contact phone: +7 495 251 9069 Facts & Figures or e-mail: [email protected] Russian Combat Aviation Losses in Armed Moscow Defense Brief is published by the Centre for Analysis of Strategies Conflict Zones in 1999-2010 24 and Technologies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording Our Authors 32 or otherwise, without reference to Moscow Defense Brief. Please note that, while the Publisher has taken all reasonable care in the compilation of this publication, the Publisher cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions in this publication or for any loss arising therefrom. Authors’ opinions do not necessary reflect those of the Publisher or Editor Translated by: Ivan Khokhotva Computer design & pre-press: ZEBRA-GROUP www.zebra-group.ru Cover Photo: MiG Corporation’s best hope: MiG-29K carrier-based fighter Photo by: Russian Aircraft Corporation “MiG” (RAC MiG) © Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, 2010 Printed in Russia # 2, 2010 Moscow Defense Brief 1 Global Security The Arms Non-Reduction Treaty Mikhail Barabanov he new US-Russian Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty 60 of the 111 bombers (44 B-52H’s and 16 B-2A’s) and 12 of T(START) signed on 8 April in Prague has been hailed as the the 14 Ohio-type subs count as deployed (at any given time new stage of nuclear arms reductions and a worthy successor – two of the subs are listed as undergoing maintenance), the to the 1991 START-1 agreement. A closer inspection of the United States is now considered to have 798 strategic delivery terms of the new treaty reveals, however, that the mountain vehicles. That means that only about 100 of them will have to has in fact given birth to a mouse. be cut under the new treaty. The new ceilings for the Russian and American strategic Apparently, Washington’s plan is to cut only 100 silo- nuclear forces are as follows: based Minuteman III missiles and 12 B-52H bombers (the • 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads latter will be given non-deployed status rather than actually • 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles, including destroyed). What is more, the terms of the treaty do not even intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine- require the destruction of the silos now housing the ICBMs to launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and heavy be scrapped. Theoretically, that enables the United States to bombers stockpile all 100 Minuteman III missiles to be cut under the • 800 deployed and non-deployed strategic delivery new agreement with Russia. And it should not be forgotten vehicles, including ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers that although in theory those missiles are fairly aged, all and heavy bombers of them have been thoroughly upgraded in recent years. Under the new treaty, the exact structure of the nuclear Their solid-fuel engines and guidance systems have all been arsenals is left to the two governments, so long as the overall replaced, so in essence we are looking at new ICBMs that can ceilings are observed. In other words, the treaty does not set remain in service for many years to come. individual limits on the numbers of ICBMs, SLBMs or heavy Once all the cuts under the new treaty have been bombers. implemented by 2020, America will still have: The counting rules, however, have been redrawn. For • 350 silo-based Minuteman III ICBMs, each carrying a missile delivery systems, the procedure of tallying the multiple single warhead; warheads that can be fitted onto each missile produces a result • 14 Ohio-type subs armed with 24 Trident II SLBMs each that is quite close to the actual numbers. But for strategic (that includes the two “non-deployed” subs undergoing bombers, it was decided not to adjust the score for the number maintenance, so the total number of deployed SLBMs of warheads each plane can carry – meaning that one bomber will be 1,152); now counts as a delivery vehicle for a single warhead. • 111 bombers (including 48 deployed ones: 32 B-52H’s At first glance, the treaty promises to cut the two and 16 B-2A’s). countries’ nuclear arsenals by a third (from 2,200 warheads That means that after all the cuts under the new treaty each) compared to the numbers agreed in the 2002 SORT the United States will still have 797 strategic delivery vehicles, treaty. This ostensible achievement is being touted as another 686 of them deployed, with a total of 1,550 warheads, as big step towards universal nuclear disarmament. tallied under the new counting rules. It is easy to see, however, that the terms of the new treaty The actual reductions Russia will have to effect in order mandate a bare minimum of actual nuclear reductions. to comply with the new treaty are even less onerous. The truth Most of the advertized cuts are in fact the product of creative is, Russia’s nuclear arsenal is already at or even below the new accounting. ceilings. At the time of the signing of the treaty, Russia had a The United States now has a total of 450 silo-based total of just 640 strategic delivery vehicles – only 571 of them Minuteman III missiles (carrying somewhere between 550 deployed. That number includes: and 800 nuclear warheads, as some of those missiles have • 368 land-based ICBMs, namely: been fitted with three warheads each). America also has 14 • 59 heavy silo-based R-36MUTTH (SS-18 Mod 4) and nuclear-powered Ohio-type submarines, each carrying 25 R-36M2 (SS-18 Mod 5) missiles; Trident II D-5 SLBMs, fitted with four warheads each – for • 70 silo-based UR-100NUTTH (SS-19 Mod 3) a total of 336 SLBMs and 1,344 warheads. Finally, it has 111 missiles; strategic bombers (93 B-52H’s and 18 B-2A’s) – each now • 171 mobile Topol (SS-25) missiles; counts as a delivery vehicle for a single warhead. The total US • 50 silo-based Topol-M (SS-27A) missiles; tally is therefore 897 strategic delivery vehicles. But since only • 18 mobile Topol-M (SS-27B) missiles. 2 # 2, 2010 Moscow Defense Brief The Arms Non-Reduction Treaty Global Security • 12 nuclear-armed submarines carrying a total of 196 now completely unaccounted for. The biggest beneficiary of SLBMs, including: this ploy is the Unite States. If each of the 48 deployed strategic • 6 Project 667BDRM (Delta IV class)subs; bombers the Americans plans to keep were to be counted as a • 4 Project 667BDR (Delta III class); carrier of 10 cruise missiles, Washington would have either • 1 Project 941UM (Typhoon class); to cut almost all of its Minuteman III ICBMs to comply with • 1 Project 955 (Yuri Dolgorukiy). the new ceilings, or slash the number of warheads fitted onto • 76 deployed bombers (13 Tu-160 Blackjack and 63 Tu- the Trident II SLBMs. 95MS Bear H). In essence, the new treaty completely eliminates the Of the 12 Russian nuclear-armed subs, only eight are existing workable system of controls over strategic aviation deployed - four each of Project 667BDRMs and Project (especially considering that America can declare a large part 667BDRs. Each sub carries 16 SLBMs, for a total of 128 of its bombers as non-deployed). It enables both sides to deployed missiles. fudge the numbers of their air-launched nuclear warheads It therefore becomes evident that Russia needs no actual on a truly grand scale - to put it bluntly, America and Russia reductions to comply. If anything, it may need to bring some can now have as many of those warheads as they like. of its numbers up to the new limits, not down. Even before In order for this ruse to work, the new treaty imposes a the Prague treaty was signed, Russia’s nuclear arsenal had ceiling on the total numbers of deployed warheads (1,550), shrunk all of its own accord over the past year or so from but skirts the issue of non-deployed warheads, which are not 809 to 640 strategic delivery vehicles, following the mass subject to any limits whatsoever. In practice that allows each decommissioning of old ICBMs and nuclear-armed subs. side to have an unlimited number of warheads - so long as they That, in fact, was one of the main bones of contention are declared as non-deployed. Meanwhile, both sides can keep during the talks. Moscow insisted on lowering the ceiling 100 non-deployed strategic delivery vehicles each (including to 500-550 strategic delivery vehicles – that is how many it combat-ready strategic bombers), and now they don’t even will soon be left with, treaty or no treaty, due to the natural have to destroy the silos left after the decommissioning of attrition of its ageing nuclear arsenal.