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Treball Final De Màster Análisis económico sobre la liberalización del transporte ferroviario español de alta velocidad MÀSTER Treball realitzat per: Cristian Longo Barrio Dirigit per: Àlvar Garola Crespo Màster en: Enginyeria de Camins Canals i Ports Barcelona, Juny 2020 Departament d’Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental (DECA) TREBALL FINAL DE TREBALL FINAL Agradecimientos: Agradecer a Àlvar Garola por su apoyo y dedicación durante la dirección de este trabajo. Agradecer también a mi familia y amigos por el apoyo durante todos estos años, en especial a Luis, Diego y Elena. A todos, muchas gracias. Resumen 2 RESUMEN El transporte ferroviario ha sido un elemento vertebrador de las ciudades desde la revolución industrial hasta la actualidad. Desde sus inicios, la construcción de las líneas ferroviarias en España ha tendido a adelantarse a la demanda, dificultando la correcta explotación de este modo de transporte. Este hecho provocó en varias ocasiones la quiebra de operadores ferroviarios privados, los cuales fueron absorbidos por otras compañías, estableciendo oligopolio. Con la nacionalización de la red, Renfe acusó los mismos problemas que sus predecesores, y con un material rodante y un trazado anticuado no podía hacer frente a los nuevos modos de transporte que aparecían para competir en el mercado. Avión y automóvil redujeron notablemente la demanda ferroviaria, obligándola a ejercer un papel residual si no mejoraba sus prestaciones. Con la llegada de la alta velocidad, el ferrocarril fue capaz de volver a captar gran parte de cuota de mercado en corredores de medio-largo recorrido gracias a su reducción de tiempo de viaje y sus altas prestaciones. Pese a su mejora en la cuota de mercado, la rentabilidad de las líneas es cuestionable. Las características técnicas necesarias para operar a alta velocidad requieren tolerancias, trazados y obras de fábrica que encarecen su construcción, lo cual provoca que desde un punto de vista de contabilidad económica y social solamente sea rentable su explotación si se consideran como costes hundidos los costes de construcción. Conocido esto y la fragmentación de los transportes en Europa, la Unión Europea ha aplicado diversos paquetes de normativas para la creación de un mercado europeo de transporte, liberalizando el mercado y permitiendo el acceso a operadores extranjeros. En el caso del transporte aéreo, favoreció la creación de un espacio aéreo único liberalizado. Con esta liberalización se obtuvieron rebajas de precios generalizadas gracias a la entrada de operadores de bajo coste, además de la apertura de nuevas rutas. En el caso ferroviario, era necesaria la separación vertical entre administración de infraestructuras y operadores, y en los países donde se ha aplicado se han obtenido reducciones de precios, aumento de demanda y de frecuencias debido a la competencia. Al aplicar el modelo de precio tiempo en la línea de Madrid-Barcelona, se ha obtenido que el coste generalizado de la Alta Velocidad es menor al del avión, y que la entrada de nuevos operadores puede captar volúmenes considerables de usuarios, dependiendo altamente de la elasticidad escogida. En cuanto a la rentabilidad, se ha aplicado el valor actual neto (VAN) para el cálculo de la rentabilidad, considerando solamente los costes de adquisición de los trenes. Palabras clave: Sistema ferroviario, liberalización, Alta Velocidad ferroviaria, transporte aéreo, reparto modal, demanda, elasticidad, rentabilidad Abstract 3 ABSTRACT Rail transport has been a backbone of cities since the industrial revolution until today. Since its implementation, the construction of railway corridors in Spain has tended to anticipate demand, making it difficult to properly operate this mode of transport. This fact caused on several occasions the bankruptcy of private railway operators, which were absorbed by other companies, establishing an oligopoly. With the nationalization of the network, Renfe suffered the same problems as its predecessors, and with a rolling stock and an outdated layout it could not cope with the new modes of transport that appeared to compete in the market. Aircraft and automobiles significantly reduced rail demand, forcing it to play a residual role if it did not improve its performance. With the arrival of high speed, the railway was able to re-capture a large part of the market share in medium-long-haul corridors thanks to its reduction in travel time and high performance. Despite its improvement in market share, the profitability of the lines is questionable. The technical characteristics necessary to operate at high speed require tolerances, layouts and factory works that make its construction more expensive, which means that from an economic and social point of view, its operation is only profitable if construction costs are not taken into account. Knowing this and the fragmentation of transport in Europe, the European Union has applied various packages of regulations to create a unified transport market, liberalizing and allowing access to foreign operators. In case of air transport, it favoured the creation of a single liberalized airspace. With this liberalization, generalised price reductions were obtained thanks to the entry of low-cost operators, in addition to the opening of new routes. In the railway case, the vertical separation between infrastructure administration and operators was necessary, and in the countries where it has been applied, price reductions, increased demand and frequencies have been obtained due to competition. By applying a time-price model on the Madrid-Barcelona line, it has been obtained that the generalized cost of High Speed is less than the one of the plane, and that the entry of new operators can capture considerable volumes of users, highly depending on the chosen elasticity. Regarding profitability, the net present value (NPV) has been applied to calculate profitability, considering only the acquisition costs of the trains. Keywords: Railway system, liberalization, High Speed Railway, air transportation, modal share, demand, elasticity, profitability Abstract 4 TABLA DE CONTENIDOS Resumen ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Tablas e ilustraciones .................................................................................................................... 8 Glosario ....................................................................................................................................... 11 1. Introducción ........................................................................................................................ 13 2. Objetivo y alcance del estudio ............................................................................................. 14 3. Evolución del sistema ferroviario en España ....................................................................... 15 3.1 La llegada del ferrocarril a España: primeros años ..................................................... 15 3.2 La etapa privada: competencia y crisis ferroviaria ...................................................... 17 3.2.1 La ley ferroviaria de 1855 ........................................................................................ 18 3.2.2 Las grandes compañías ferroviarias ........................................................................ 19 3.2.2.1 MZA ................................................................................................................. 19 3.2.2.2 Norte ............................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2.3 Otras compañías .............................................................................................. 20 3.2.3 Final de siglo XIX: La crisis de 1866 ......................................................................... 20 3.2.3.1 Efectos económicos derivados del ferrocarril ................................................. 22 3.2.4 Siglo XX: Hacia la nacionalización ............................................................................ 23 3.3 Monopolio público: dictadura y democracia .............................................................. 25 3.3.1 La creación de RENFE .............................................................................................. 26 3.3.2 Competencia entre modos ...................................................................................... 27 3.3.3 El ferrocarril en democracia .................................................................................... 28 4. Marco actual del transporte en Europa .............................................................................. 30 4.1 Unión Europea ............................................................................................................. 30 4.1.1 El transporte de mercancías en Europa .................................................................. 30 4.1.2 El transporte de viajeros en Europa ........................................................................ 32 4.2 España ......................................................................................................................... 34 4.2.1 El transporte de mercancías en España .................................................................. 34 4.2.2 El transporte de viajeros en España .......................................................................
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