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Staff Analysis Fsa20-01/02/03 Issues

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Staff Analysis Fsa20-01/02/03 Issues STAFF ANALYSIS FSA20-01/02/03 ISSUES Temporary Fishery Special Action Request FSA20-01, submitted by the Akiak Native Community, requests that the Federal Subsistence Board (Board) take the following actions: • Close Federal public waters of the Kuskokwim River drainage to the harvest of Chinook Salmon except by Federally qualified subsistence users possessing a community harvest permit between June 1, 2020 and July 1, 2020; • Reduce the pool of eligible harvesters based on an Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA) Section 804 Subsistence User Prioritization that was implemented in 2017; and • Consult with 33 communities named in the 2014 Office of Subsistence Management Section 804 Subsistence User Prioritization analysis to establish an appropriate harvest allocation of Chinook Salmon to be distributed among communities within the Kuskokwim River drainage. Temporary Special Action Request FSA20-02, submitted by the Organized Village of Kwethluk, requests the following from the Board: • Close Federal public waters of the Kuskokwim River drainage to the harvest of Chinook Salmon except by Federally qualified subsistence users between June 1, 2020 and July 1, 2020; and • Reduce the pool of eligible harvesters within the Kuskokwim River drainage based on an ANILCA Section 804 Subsistence User Prioritization analysis. Temporary Special Action Request FSA20-03, submitted by Lamont Albertson, requests the following from the Board: • Close Federal public waters of the Kuskokwim River drainage to the harvest of Chinook Salmon except by Federally qualified subsistence users at the beginning of the 2020 Kuskokwim Chinook Salmon run; • Conduct an ANILCA Section 804 Subsistence User Prioritization analysis to reduce the pool of eligible harvesters; and • Request that the Federal in-season manager continue to implement emergency special actions that uphold the conservation mandates under Section 815(1) and (3) of ANILCA by following the model from 2019, where the Federal in-season manager worked with the Kuskokwim River Intertribal Fish Commission, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, and other stakeholders to determine when harvest opportunities should be provided. 1 DISCUSSION The applicable Federal regulations are found in 50 CFR 100.19(b) and 36 CFR 242.19 (Temporary Special Actions) and state that: . After adequate notice and public hearing, the Board may temporarily close or open public lands for the taking of fish and wildlife for subsistence uses, or modify the requirements for subsistence take, or close public lands for the taking of fish and wildlife for nonsubsistence uses, or restrict take for nonsubsistence uses. FSA20-01 The proponent states that Chinook Salmon subsistence harvest within the Kuskokwim River drainage has declined precipitously within the past decade. The last time an Amount Necessary for Subsistence was achieved for Chinook Salmon was in 2009. The harvest outlook for Chinook Salmon for 2020 should trigger the responsibility of the Board to restrict the taking of Chinook Salmon for subsistence uses on public lands of Alaska per the responsibilities specified in Section 802 of ANILCA. Failing to first restrict Chinook Salmon harvest to Federally qualified subsistence users forgoes the Board's additional responsibility to restrict within subsistence users when necessary (ANILCA Section 804). The proponent request that the Board take action to manage the waters within the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge for subsistence harvest of Chinook Salmon in order to fulfill the duties and responsibilities set forth in ANILCA. The proponent believes an allocation model similar to the one employed in 2015 will work to ensure the viability of Chinook Salmon populations as well as continued opportunities for Federally qualified subsistence uses of Chinook Salmon. Allocation of Chinook Salmon harvest to Federally qualified subsistence users beginning June 1, 2020, will not preclude meeting Chinook Salmon escapement goals within the Kuskokwim River drainage. Additionally, allocation will ensure the continued opportunity for subsistence uses by Alaska Natives, which includes subsistence uses of Chinook Salmon. As Congress recognizes, subsistence is “essential to Native physical, economic, traditional, and cultural existence'” (ANILCA Section 801(1)). FSA20-02 The proponent states that Chinook Salmon subsistence harvest within the Kuskokwim River drainage has declined precipitously within the past decade. The last time an Amount Necessary for Subsistence was achieved for Chinook Salmon on the Kuskokwim River was in 2009. The harvest outlook for Chinook Salmon for 2020 should trigger the responsibility of the Board to restrict the taking of Chinook Salmon for subsistence uses on public lands of Alaska per the responsibilities specified in Section 802 of ANILCA. Failing to first restrict Chinook Salmon harvest to Federally qualified subsistence users forgoes 2 the Board's additional responsibility to restrict within subsistence users when necessary (ANILCA Section 804). The proponent requests that the Board take action to manage the waters within the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge for subsistence harvest of Chinook Salmon and other salmon species, in order to fulfill the duties and responsibilities set forth in ANILCA. Such action will also uphold the Board to give priority preference to Federally qualified subsistence users by allowing fishing period openers of at least four total 12-hour openers once per week in June using 6 inch or less mesh-size drift or set nets with gear length restrictions in consultations with tribes. The proponent states that it is the Organized Village of Kwethluk's opinion that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is capable of co-managing the entire Kuskokwim River subsistence fishery. Allowing harvest of Chinook and other salmon species by Federally qualified subsistence users between June l and July l, 2020, will not preclude meeting Chinook Salmon escapement goals within the Kuskokwim River drainage. Additionally, it will ensure the continued opportunity for subsistence uses by Alaska Natives, which includes subsistence uses of Chinook and other salmon species. As Congress recognizes, subsistence is “essential to Native physical, economic, traditional, and cultural existence” (ANILCA Section 80I(1)). FSA20-03 The proponent states that based on new information regarding a set of risk factors, including critical sources of uncertainty and the decade-long decline presented below, that there is a lack of justifiable evidence to support a pre-season decision that the 2020 run of Kuskokwim Chinook Salmon will be, or is highly likely to be, sufficient to support the harvest demands of all user groups authorized by the State on Federal public lands and waters without endangering the health of these populations. The burden of proof rests not on Federally qualified rural residents, but rather on the Federal Subsistence Management Program to provide assurances that Federal direct or delegated management actions under Title III and VIII of ANILCA, or decisions to not take action: 1) Are evidenced-based and informed by sound science and transparent, independent analysis; and 2) Are precautionary in that, when a given action is associated with a high degree of uncertainty or poses risk to the viability of the population of Chinook Salmon or priority subsistence uses, priority should be given to conserving the viability of the population and the continuation of subsistence uses which do not jeopardize that population of Chinook Salmon. The proponent states that Kuskokwim Chinook Salmon populations have suffered a multi-year period of very low productivity and abundance. Alaska Board of Fisheries current Amounts Necessary for Subsistence (ANS) determination for this fishery is 67,200–109,800. Subsistence harvests of Kuskokwim River Chinook Salmon have fallen below the lower limit of the ANS range since 2011, representing an 8-year trend in harvest demonstrating that reasonable opportunities for subsistence uses have not been provided due to lower salmon returns and restricting fishing opportunities for conservation purposes. The 2019 run, the first significant increase in a decade, remains a single year outlier until additional years of total run data suggest otherwise. 3 The proponent further states that of the four risk factors listed below, the first three risk factors all function as drivers of decline, negatively impacting the abundance and/or productivity of the stocks. This makes it critical that the staff analysis include assessment of the cumulative effects among these multiple risk factors. The first two risk factors below can be assessed quantitatively but are not accounted for in the current management reference points being used by the Federal or State managers (spawner/recruit analysis informing the current escapement goal range). The fourth risk factor - uncertainty - can be a driver of decline when it fuels risk-prone management actions. 1. Risks to stock diversity from high harvest rates are not currently accounted for: The mandate for protecting population diversity is found in Title III of ANILCA and in the Alaska Board of Fisheries, Sustainable Salmon Policy. A new paper by Connors et al (2019) identifies several Kuskokwim Chinook Salmon sub-stocks that are currently less productive and therefore at risk of unintentional overharvest under higher exploitation rates within the mainstem mixed-stock fishery. 2. Significant decline in body size and caloric value
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