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Infrastruktur-Investments Über Die Gesamte Kapitalstruktur: Megatrends, Strategien, Chancen & Risiken Für Investoren

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Infrastruktur-Investments Über Die Gesamte Kapitalstruktur: Megatrends, Strategien, Chancen & Risiken Für Investoren Infrastruktur-Investments über die gesamte Kapitalstruktur: Megatrends, Strategien, Chancen & Risiken für Investoren Referenten Gianluca Minella, Head of Infrastructure Research, DWS; Dr. Mathias Bimberg, Head of Infrastructure & Hendrik Büttner, Investment Director – Infrastructure, Prime Capital AG; Alex Koriath, Partner, Head of European Pension Practice, Cambridge Associates GmbH 19. Mai 2021 Philipp Bunnenberg Referent Alternative Markets Poppelsdorfer Allee 106 53115 Bonn +49 (0) 228 96987-52 [email protected] Infrastruktur – Zusammenfassung 2 Sprecher Gianluca Minella Dr. Mathias Bimberg Hendrik Büttner Alex Koriath Head of Infrastructure Head of Infrastructure, Investment Director – Partner, Head of European Pension Research – Alternative Prime Capital AG Infrastructure, Prime Practice, Cambridge Associates Investments, DWS Capital AG GmbH 3 Marketing Material PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT STRATEGIC OUTLOOK 2021 DWS Infrastructure Research & Strategy May 2021 Please note certain information in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements. Due to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions made in our analysis, actual events or results or the actual performance of the markets covered by this presentation report may differ materially from those described. The information herein reflect our current views only, are subject to change, and are not intended to be promissory or relied upon by the reader. There can be no certainty that events will turn out as we have opined herein. For Professional Clients (MiFID Directive 2014/65/EU Annex II) only. For Qualified Investors (Art. 10 Para. 3 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA)). Australia and New Zealand: For Wholesale Investors only. Not for public/private/retail distribution. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. For investors in Bermuda: This is not an offering of securities or interests in any product. Such securities may be offered or sold in Bermuda only in compliance with the provisions of the Investment Business Act of 2003 of Bermuda which regulates the sale of securities in Bermuda. 01 MARKET ENVIRONMENT, FUNDRAISING, TRANSACTIONS AND RETURNS For institutional investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. FUNDRAISING OVERVIEW A growing market, gradually expanding from Investment Grade to High Yield PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT FUNDRAISING SUMMARY VIEW Global, % of Total Fundraising ‒ Market: Private infrastructure debt gaining popularity North America Europe Other Geographies among institutional investors. 100% ‒ Demand supported by low interest rates, with investors looking for alternatives to listed debt, providing long 90% duration and better risk-adjusted returns. 80% ‒ Fundraising: Doubling to USD 33 billion in 2019/2020 combined from 2017/2018, excluding direct investments. 70% ‒ North American and European strategies dominate, but 60% APAC strategies growing, particularly for renewables. ‒ Europe: demand supported by (i) SII regulation reducing 50% capital charges for insurance companies and DC pension 40% funds increasingly focusing on secured income strategies. 30% Share of total fundraising volume (%) (%) volume fundraising total of Share ‒ European strategies focus on investment grade (IG), but growing interest for strategies complementing IG 20% portfolios with sub-investment grade (HY) and junior 10% debt. ‒ North America: largest HY infrastructure debt market, 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 but also IG opportunities. Source: Preqin database, as at March 2021. Past performance is not indicative of future results. / 3 For institutional investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT RETURNS Private infrastructure debt providing an entry yield premium over listed non financial corporate debt YIELD TO MATURITY COMPARISON – INVESTMENT GRADE YIELD TO MATURITY COMPARISON – HIGH YIELD (BBB), 2006 - 2020 (BB), 2010 – 2020 10% 10% Private Infrastructure Debt IG EUR BBB, EDHEC Listed Infrastructure Debt EUR BB, iBoxx 9% Listed Infrastructure Debt EUR BBB, iBoxx 9% Private Infrastructure Debt EUR BB, DWS Estimate 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% maturity (%) maturity - maturity (%) maturity to - 4% - 4% to - 3% Yield 3% Yield 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2006-09-30 2007-06-30 2008-03-31 2008-12-31 2009-09-30 2010-06-30 2011-03-31 2011-12-31 2012-09-30 2013-06-30 2014-03-31 2014-12-31 2015-09-30 2016-06-30 2017-03-31 2017-12-31 2018-09-30 2019-06-30 2020-03-31 2020-12-31 2010-06-30 2010-12-31 2011-06-30 2011-12-31 2012-06-30 2012-12-31 2013-06-30 2013-12-31 2014-06-30 2014-12-31 2015-06-30 2015-12-31 2016-06-30 2016-12-31 2017-06-30 2017-12-31 2018-06-30 2018-12-31 2019-06-30 2019-12-31 2020-06-30 2020-12-31 Source: IHS Markit, Edhec Infrastructure, * BB Private Infrastructure Yield to Maturity estimated on the basis of DWS database of transactions with publicly available information. DWS estimate, as at April 2021. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Notes: Rating category for private infrastructure debt was broadly estimated on the basis of entry yield and default probability levels. / 4 For institutional investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT RISK PROFILE Infrastructure credit losses lower than non-financial corporates, particularly for high yield debt: supported by real asset and essential service nature AVG. BBB CUMULATIVE DEFAULT RATES AVG. BB CUMULATIVE DEFAULT RATES 1983-2019 1983-2019 Corporate Infrastructure and Project Finance Debt Securities 2.0% 18% Non-Financial Corporate Issuers Corporate Infrastructure and Project Finance Debt Securities 1.8% 16% Non-Financial Corporate Issuers 1.6% 14% 1.4% 12% 1.2% 10% 1.0% 8% 0.8% 0.6% 6% 0.4% 4% 0.2% 2% 0.0% 0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 AVG. BBB CREDIT LOSS RATES AVG. BB CREDIT LOSS RATES 1983-2019 1983-2019 Corporate Infrastructure and Project Finance Debt Securities Corporate Infrastructure and Project Finance Debt Securities 2.0% 12% 1.8% Non-Financial Corporate Issuers Non-Financial Corporate Issuers 1.6% 10% 1.4% 8% 1.2% 1.0% 6% 0.8% 0.6% 4% 0.4% 2% 0.2% 0.0% 0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Source: Moody’s Infrastructure Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2019, 2020. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. / 5 For institutional investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT IN A PORTFOLIO Theoretical portfolio simulation: replacing listed BBB listed corporate debt with private infrastructure debt HISTORICAL PORTFOLIO RETURN SIMULATION (NOT ACTUAL HISTORICAL THEORETICAL PORTFOLIO SIMULATION PORTFOLIO) ALLOCATIONS December 2007 – June 2020, Quarterly December 2007 – June 2020, Quarterly Portfolio A Portfolio B Portfolio A: Portfolio with No allocation to private infrastructure debt No allocation to 5% allocation to Portfolio B: Portfolio with 5% allocation to European private infrastructure debt private European private Index infrastructure infrastructure 200 debt debt iBoxx EUR Sovereigns Index 33% 33% 180 iBoxx EUR Non-Financial Corporates Index 21% 16% BBB 160 MSCI World Index 22% 22% Cash 2% 2% Preqin Private Equity Index 7% 7% 140 MSCI Global Property Fund Index 4% 4% Bloomberg Commodity Index 4% 4% Portfolio level level Portfolio 120 HFRX Global Hedge Funds Index 7% 7% EDHEC Europe Private Infrastructure Debt (rebased, Dec Dec (rebased, = 2007 100) 0% 5% Index (EUR)* 100 Total portfolio 100% 100% 80 Annualised return 5.3% 5.6% Annualised volatility 5.8% 5.5% Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 0.91 1.03 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec Sharpe Ratio (Rf=0%) Notes: * Estimated broadly at BBB based on entry yield and historical default data. Source: Mercer, DWS, MSCI, IHS Markit, Preqin, EDHEC (ScientificInfra), Bloomberg, as at June 2020. No assurance can be given that any forecast, target or opinion will materialise. This analysis is based on a simulation, not an actual portfolio. These model portfolios and percentage allocations are shown for illustrative purposes only and reflect hypothetical performance results and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation, an offer or solicitation. Analysis does not take into account fees and transaction costs. Rebalancing is assumed to be quarterly for liquid part, and no rebalancing is assumed for illiquid part of the portfolio. / 6 For institutional investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited. PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT IN A PORTFOLIO Buy-and-hold risk-adjusted perspective. Moving down the rating scale may provide stronger risk-adjusted returns than increasing duration (when possible) RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS, BUY-AND-HOLD DURATION PREMIUM, PRIVATE INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT As at December 2020, Estimate As at December 2020, EUR, BBB(BBB Estimate EST.) 50 Average Annual risk- Median Yield-to- expected adjusted Asset class**** estimated Maturity as at 40 annual credit return rating Dec 2020 loss estimate 30 EUR Non-Financial 20 BBB 0.5% 0.16% 0.3% Corporates IG 10 Europe Private A 1.2% 0.04% 1.2% Infrastructure Debt IG* bps. 0 Europe Private -10 BBB 1.3% 0.12% 1.2% Infrastructure Debt IG** -20 Europe Private 90% BBB & -30 Infrastructure Debt 1.6% 0.14% 1.5% 10% BB IG/HY*** -40 Europe Private -50 BB 4.0% 0.37% 3.7% Infrastructure Debt HY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Years Source: DWS, IHS Markit, Moody’s, EDHEC (ScientificInfra), as at December 2020.
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