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YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Shifting to a new generation of artists Entertainment 1Q18 preview: In line with consensus For 1Q18, we expect YG Entertainment to post consolidated revenue of W87.1bn Company Report (-18.5% YoY) and operating profit of W8.5bn (-42.9%), in line with the consensus. Japan April 25, 2018 concert revenue likely included Big Bang’s last dome tour (650,000 attendees), held in 2017 prior to the military enlistment of key members, and some of iKON’s 2H17 tour (100,000 attendees). We believe domestic album revenue was lackluster except for iKON’s comeback album (100,000 copies sold). Meanwhile, YG Entertainment is keeping a tight grip on the music streaming market, supported by new album releases (Maintain) Trading Buy by iKON (February) and WINNER (April) and a new single by Big Bang Target Price (12M, W) 32,000 BLACKPINK, WINNER, and iKON on solid growth path YG Entertainment’s lineup is shifting to a new generation of artists to fill the earnings Share Price (04/24/18, W) 29,850 void left by Big Bang’s withdrawal. We believe the case of SM Entertainment (041510 KQ/Buy/TP: W47,000/CP: W36,550) provides clues as to the future of YG Entertainment . Expected Return 7% When TVXQ and Super Junior were on hiatus due to military service, the fan bases for SM Entertainment’s new artists (EXO and SHINee) expanded rapidly, limiting earnings downside over the past two years and becoming a promising revenue source in 2018. OP (18F, Wbn) 24 Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 27 BLACKPINK’s July Japan arena tour schedule (six performances, 66,000 at tendees) has been confirmed, building on the momentum from a successful showcase (14,000 EPS Growth (18F, %) 11.8 attendees) held in November 2017. It is encouraging that BLACKPINK’s concert Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 15.8 demand is taking shape even before the release of a full-length album, suggesting it P/E (18F, x) 28.7 will be able to coexist with rival girl group Twice, which has already found success in Market P/E (18F, x) 9.5 Japan. WINNER’s Japan tour (100,000 attendees, 11 performances) is set to end this KOSDAQ 873.61 weekend, with additional concerts likely before end-2018. iKON’s schedule is also confirme d: two performances and 200,000 attendees, in line with concerts held in Market Cap (Wbn) 543 2H17. iKON has fewer concerts, but they are larger, which is favorable to margins. Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 Free Float (%) 62.7 Content production presents opportunities Foreign Ownership (%) 15.4 During 4Q17 and 1Q18, YG Entertainment aired in-house-pro duced entertainment Beta (12M) 0.75 content ( Mix Nine and Do the Right Thing ) through JTBC. Although the content 52-Week Low 24,850 production business incurred a W4bn loss in 4Q17, we highlight the firm’s efforts to 52-Week High 36,150 recruit production talent. Notably, in 2H18, the new series YG Future Strategy Office will air on Netflix (NFLX US/CP: US$307.02). We see limited risks of losses, given Netflix’s (%) 1M 6M 12M practice of guaranteeing a fixed margin to producers. We could also see further deals Absolute 5.9 3.6 -4.2 come through, given the company’s well-established talent resourc es (producers and Relative 0.5 -18.5 -31.3 writers). 160 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ Maintain TP of W32,000; Taking a breather until new share catalyst emerges 140 We maintain our Trading Buy call and target price of W32,000 on YG Entertainment. We expect earnings to structurally decline from 2Q18, following the f ull recognition of 120 Big Bang’s last dome tour revenue. Some opportunities still exist, including: 1) growth 100 of the company’s lineup outside of Big Bang; 2) new content ventures; 3) loss reductions at subsidiaries; and 4) the normalization of the concert/management 80 4.17 8.17 12.17 4.18 businesses in China. We advise investors to take into account both: 1) the risks of structural earnings erosion (from 2Q18); and 2) the growing visibility of new opportunities (in 2H18). Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 156 193 322 350 329 315 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 22 32 25 24 23 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 14.1 11.4 9.9 6.9 7.3 7.3 NP (Wbn) 19 28 19 18 20 20 EPS (W) 1,290 1,700 1,094 931 1,041 1,010 ROE (%) 13.4 14.7 7.7 5.7 5.8 5.4 P/E (x) 34.3 26.2 25.9 31.0 28.7 29.6 P/B (x) 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn, %p) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18F 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 107 72 75 95 87.1 80 77 85 350 329 315 Products 27 32 24 28 20 27 29 27 110 104 106 Albums 5 7 4 2 3 4 5 4 17 16 16 Digital content 13 16 12 14 9 14 15 14 55 53 55 Goods, etc. 8 9 8 12 8 9 9 9 38 35 35 Management 80 41 51 68 67 53 48 58 240 226 209 Concerts 13 7 21 15 6 11 12 11 56 40 42 Advertising 9 12 10 8 9 12 10 8 40 39 41 Royalties 49 6 5 23 31 9 4 18 84 63 39 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 20 30 30 Commissions 4 11 9 11 9 9 10 9 36 37 40 Gross profit 33 25 21 22 26 24 23 26 101 100 99 Operating profit 15 4 1 5 8.5 4 4 8 25 24 23 OP margin (%) 13.9 6.0 2.0 4.8 9.7 5.1 5.2 9.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 Pretax profit 14 6 8 3 9 6 6 6 30 27 26 Net profit 6 5 5 -4 6 4 4 5 12 19 19 Net margin (%) 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 7.1 5.2 5.5 5.4 3.4 5.8 5.9 Net profit attributable to 7 4 6 0 7 4 4 5 17.8 20.3 19.7 controlling interests YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -18.5 10.6 2.6 -11.0 8.7 -5.9 -4.3 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 6.7 -23.7 -14.5 19.8 -1.7 21.8 -6.0 2.2 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 53.0 -16.8 30.2 -5.5 -14.8 3.6 -5.9 -7.2 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -19.9 -1.8 11.2 17.6 6.0 -0.7 -0.8 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -42.9 -5.3 171.3 66.4 -21.0 -4.1 -3.1 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR 2.6 -12.3 -21.0 TTB -15.5 60.3 -2.9 Key assumption Ticket sales volume in Japan 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.7 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1. Japanese concert attendance will likely decline Figure 2. Music streaming M/S remains solid (mn persons) 2.0 YG Family BLACKPINK iKON WINNER Epik High 2NE1 1.6 Psy Big Bang 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Yang Hyun-suk’s Instagram account, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ/Trading Buy/TP: W32,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F (Wbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue 322 350 329 315 Current Assets 276 307 354 384 Cost of Sales 227 249 229 216 Cash and Cash Equivalents 62 99 168 208 Gross Profit 95 101 100 99 AR & Other Receivables 29 40 35 33 SG&A Expenses 63 77 76 76 Inventories 16 18 16 16 Operating Profit (Adj) 32 24 24 23 Other Current Assets 169 150 135 127 Operating Profit 32 24 24 23 Non-Current Assets 210 276 237 219 Non-Operating Profit 1 6 3 3 Investments in Associates 14 14 13 12 Net Financial Income 4 7 9 11 Property, Plant and Equipment 61 87 76 70 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 33 63 48 41 Pretax Profit 33 30 27 26 Total Assets 487 584 591 604 Income Tax 19 18 7 7 Current Liabilities 68 73 65 62 Profit from Continuing Operations 14 12 19 19 AP & Other Payables 32 47 42 40 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 2 2 2 Net Profit 14 12 19 19 Other Current Liabilities 36 24 21 20 Controlling Interests 19 18 20 20 Non-Current Liabilities 68 78 78 78 Non-Controlling Interests -5 -6 -1 -1 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 67 75 75 75 Total Comprehensive Profit 19 6 19 19 Other Non-Current Liabilities 1 3 3 3 Controlling Interests 22 13 6 5 Total Liabilities 136 151 143 140 Non-Controlling Interests -4 -7 14 13 Controlling Interests 281 343 360 376 EBITDA 39 34 50 36 Capital Stock 8 9 9 9 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 14 -8 47 32 Capital Surplus 160 209 209 209 EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 9.7 15.2 11.4 Retained Earnings 110 124 141 158 Operating Profit Margin (%) 9.9 6.9 7.3 7.3 Non-Controlling Interests 69 89 88 87 Net Profit Margin (%) 5.9 5.1 6.1 6.3 Stockholders' Equity 350 432 448 463 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Cash Flows from Op Activities 32 22 47 32 P/E (x) 25.9 31.0 28.7 29.6 Net Profit 14 12 19 19 P/CF (x) 11.0 12.9 13.5 21.4 Non-Cash Income and Expense 30 31 24 9 P/B (x) 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 Depreciation 3 4 11 5 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 13.8 8.6 11.0 Amortization 4 6 15 7 EPS (W) 1,094 931 1,041 1,010 Others 23 21 -2 -3 CFPS (W) 2,570 2,245 2,214 1,393 Chg in Working Capital 7 -7 2 1 BPS (W) 16,007 17,816 18,675 19,546 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -5 -13 4 2 DPS (W) 200 150 150 150 Chg in Inventories -4 -4 2 1 Payout ratio (%) 23.2 22.7 14.2 14.6 Chg in AP & Other Payables 12 15 -1 -1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Income Tax Paid -24 -22 -7 -7 Revenue Growth (%) 66.8 8.7 -6.0 -4.3 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -68 -54 25 10 EBITDA Growth (%) 50.0 -12.8 47.1 -28.0 Chg in PP&E -18 -30 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 45.5 -25.0 0.0 -4.2 Chg in Intangible Assets -2 -5 0 0 EPS Growth (%) -35.6 -14.9 11.8 -3.0 Chg in Financial Assets -52 11 25 10 Accounts Receivable
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