YG Entertainment

(122870 KQ ) Shifting to a new generation of artists

Entertainment 1Q18 preview: In line with consensus For 1Q18, we expect YG Entertainment to post consolidated revenue of W87.1bn Company Report (-18.5% YoY) and operating profit of W8.5bn (-42.9%), in line with the consensus. Japan April 25, 2018 concert revenue likely included Big Bang’s last dome tour (650,000 attendees), held in 2017 prior to the military enlistment of key members, and some of iKON’s 2H17 tour (100,000 attendees). We believe domestic album revenue was lackluster except for iKON’s comeback album (100,000 copies sold). Meanwhile, YG Entertainment is keeping a tight grip on the music streaming market, supported by new album releases (Maintain) Trading Buy by iKON (February) and WINNER (April) and a new single by Big Bang

Target Price (12M, W) 32,000 , WINNER, and iKON on solid growth path YG Entertainment’s lineup is shifting to a new generation of artists to fill the earnings Share Price (04/24/18, W) 29,850 void left by Big Bang’s withdrawal. We believe the case of SM Entertainment (041510 KQ/Buy/TP: W47,000/CP: W36,550) provides clues as to the future of YG Entertainment . Expected Return 7% When TVXQ and were on hiatus due to military service, the fan bases for SM Entertainment’s new artists (EXO and SHINee) expanded rapidly, limiting earnings

downside over the past two years and becoming a promising revenue source in 2018. OP (18F, Wbn) 24 Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 27 BLACKPINK’s July Japan arena tour schedule (six performances, 66,000 at tendees) has been confirmed, building on the momentum from a successful showcase (14,000 EPS Growth (18F, %) 11.8 attendees) held in November 2017. It is encouraging that BLACKPINK’s concert Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 15.8 demand is taking shape even before the release of a full-length album, suggesting it P/E (18F, x) 28.7 will be able to coexist with rival girl group , which has already found success in Market P/E (18F, x) 9.5 Japan. WINNER’s Japan tour (100,000 attendees, 11 performances) is set to end this KOSDAQ 873.61 weekend, with additional concerts likely before end-2018. iKON’s schedule is also confirme d: two performances and 200,000 attendees, in line with concerts held in Market Cap (Wbn) 543 2H17. iKON has fewer concerts, but they are larger, which is favorable to margins. Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 Free Float (%) 62.7 Content production presents opportunities Foreign Ownership (%) 15.4 During 4Q17 and 1Q18, YG Entertainment aired in-house-pro duced entertainment Beta (12M) 0.75 content ( Mix Nine and Do the Right Thing ) through JTBC. Although the content 52-Week Low 24,850 production business incurred a W4bn loss in 4Q17, we highlight the firm’s efforts to 52-Week High 36,150 recruit production talent. Notably, in 2H18, the new series YG Future Strategy Office will air on Netflix (NFLX US/CP: US$307.02). We see limited risks of losses, given Netflix’s (%) 1M 6M 12M practice of guaranteeing a fixed margin to producers. We could also see further deals Absolute 5.9 3.6 -4.2 come through, given the company’s well-established talent resourc es (producers and Relative 0.5 -18.5 -31.3 writers).

160 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ Maintain TP of W32,000; Taking a breather until new share catalyst emerges

140 We maintain our Trading Buy call and target price of W32,000 on YG Entertainment. We expect earnings to structurally decline from 2Q18, following the f ull recognition of 120 Big Bang’s last dome tour revenue. Some opportunities still exist, including: 1) growth 100 of the company’s lineup outside of Big Bang; 2) new content ventures; 3) loss reductions at subsidiaries; and 4) the normalization of the concert/management 80 4.17 8.17 12.17 4.18 businesses in China. We advise investors to take into account both: 1) the risks of structural earnings erosion (from 2Q18); and 2) the growing visibility of new opportunities (in 2H18). Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd.

[ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 156 193 322 350 329 315 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 22 32 25 24 23 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 14.1 11.4 9.9 6.9 7.3 7.3

NP (Wbn) 19 28 19 18 20 20 EPS (W) 1,290 1,700 1,094 931 1,041 1,010 ROE (%) 13.4 14.7 7.7 5.7 5.8 5.4

P/E (x) 34.3 26.2 25.9 31.0 28.7 29.6 P/B (x) 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment

Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn, %p) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18F 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 107 72 75 95 87.1 80 77 85 350 329 315 Products 27 32 24 28 20 27 29 27 110 104 106 Albums 5 7 4 2 3 4 5 4 17 16 16 Digital content 13 16 12 14 9 14 15 14 55 53 55 Goods, etc. 8 9 8 12 8 9 9 9 38 35 35 Management 80 41 51 68 67 53 48 58 240 226 209 Concerts 13 7 21 15 6 11 12 11 56 40 42 Advertising 9 12 10 8 9 12 10 8 40 39 41 Royalties 49 6 5 23 31 9 4 18 84 63 39 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 20 30 30 Commissions 4 11 9 11 9 9 10 9 36 37 40 Gross profit 33 25 21 22 26 24 23 26 101 100 99 Operating profit 15 4 1 5 8.5 4 4 8 25 24 23 OP margin (%) 13.9 6.0 2.0 4.8 9.7 5.1 5.2 9.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 Pretax profit 14 6 8 3 9 6 6 6 30 27 26 Net profit 6 5 5 -4 6 4 4 5 12 19 19 Net margin (%) 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 7.1 5.2 5.5 5.4 3.4 5.8 5.9 Net profit attributable to 7 4 6 0 7 4 4 5 17.8 20.3 19.7 controlling interests YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -18.5 10.6 2.6 -11.0 8.7 -5.9 -4.3 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 6.7 -23.7 -14.5 19.8 -1.7 21.8 -6.0 2.2 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 53.0 -16.8 30.2 -5.5 -14.8 3.6 -5.9 -7.2 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -19.9 -1.8 11.2 17.6 6.0 -0.7 -0.8 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -42.9 -5.3 171.3 66.4 -21.0 -4.1 -3.1 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR 2.6 -12.3 -21.0 TTB -15.5 60.3 -2.9 Key assumption Ticket sales volume in Japan 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.7 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Figure 1. Japanese concert attendance will likely decline Figure 2. Music streaming M/S remains solid

(mn persons) 2.0 YG Family BLACKPINK iKON WINNER 2NE1 1.6 Psy Big Bang

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Yang Hyun-suk’s Instagram account, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment

YG Entertainment (122870 KQ/Trading Buy/TP: W32,000)

Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F (Wbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue 322 350 329 315 Current Assets 276 307 354 384 Cost of Sales 227 249 229 216 Cash and Cash Equivalents 62 99 168 208 Gross Profit 95 101 100 99 AR & Other Receivables 29 40 35 33 SG&A Expenses 63 77 76 76 Inventories 16 18 16 16 Operating Profit (Adj) 32 24 24 23 Other Current Assets 169 150 135 127 Operating Profit 32 24 24 23 Non-Current Assets 210 276 237 219 Non-Operating Profit 1 6 3 3 Investments in Associates 14 14 13 12 Net Financial Income 4 7 9 11 Property, Plant and Equipment 61 87 76 70 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 33 63 48 41 Pretax Profit 33 30 27 26 Total Assets 487 584 591 604 Income Tax 19 18 7 7 Current Liabilities 68 73 65 62 Profit from Continuing Operations 14 12 19 19 AP & Other Payables 32 47 42 40 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 2 2 2 Net Profit 14 12 19 19 Other Current Liabilities 36 24 21 20 Controlling Interests 19 18 20 20 Non-Current Liabilities 68 78 78 78 Non-Controlling Interests -5 -6 -1 -1 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 67 75 75 75 Total Comprehensive Profit 19 6 19 19 Other Non-Current Liabilities 1 3 3 3 Controlling Interests 22 13 6 5 Total Liabilities 136 151 143 140 Non-Controlling Interests -4 -7 14 13 Controlling Interests 281 343 360 376 EBITDA 39 34 50 36 Capital Stock 8 9 9 9 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 14 -8 47 32 Capital Surplus 160 209 209 209 EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 9.7 15.2 11.4 Retained Earnings 110 124 141 158 Operating Profit Margin (%) 9.9 6.9 7.3 7.3 Non-Controlling Interests 69 89 88 87 Net Profit Margin (%) 5.9 5.1 6.1 6.3 Stockholders' Equity 350 432 448 463

Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Cash Flows from Op Activities 32 22 47 32 P/E (x) 25.9 31.0 28.7 29.6 Net Profit 14 12 19 19 P/CF (x) 11.0 12.9 13.5 21.4 Non-Cash Income and Expense 30 31 24 9 P/B (x) 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 Depreciation 3 4 11 5 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 13.8 8.6 11.0 Amortization 4 6 15 7 EPS (W) 1,094 931 1,041 1,010 Others 23 21 -2 -3 CFPS (W) 2,570 2,245 2,214 1,393 Chg in Working Capital 7 -7 2 1 BPS (W) 16,007 17,816 18,675 19,546 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -5 -13 4 2 DPS (W) 200 150 150 150 Chg in Inventories -4 -4 2 1 Payout ratio (%) 23.2 22.7 14.2 14.6 Chg in AP & Other Payables 12 15 -1 -1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Income Tax Paid -24 -22 -7 -7 Revenue Growth (%) 66.8 8.7 -6.0 -4.3 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -68 -54 25 10 EBITDA Growth (%) 50.0 -12.8 47.1 -28.0 Chg in PP&E -18 -30 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 45.5 -25.0 0.0 -4.2 Chg in Intangible Assets -2 -5 0 0 EPS Growth (%) -35.6 -14.9 11.8 -3.0 Chg in Financial Assets -52 11 25 10 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 13.0 10.7 9.2 9.6 Others 4 -30 0 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 20.5 20.1 18.8 19.6 Cash Flows from Fin Activities 63 71 -4 -3 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 30.8 22.7 20.6 21.2 Chg in Financial Liabilities 4 10 0 0 ROA (%) 3.3 2.2 3.3 3.1 Chg in Equity 64 50 0 0 ROE (%) 7.7 5.7 5.8 5.4 Dividends Paid -6 -4 -4 -3 ROIC (%) 13.7 7.1 11.3 12.8 Others 1 15 0 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 38.9 35.1 32.0 30.2 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 28 37 69 40 Current Ratio (%) 404.8 419.4 541.0 617.4 Beginning Balance 34 62 99 168 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) -38.1 -32.8 -44.2 -50.1 Ending Balance 62 99 168 208 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) 21.4 14.0 12.0 11.6 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment

APPENDIX 1

Important Disclosures & Disclaimers 2-Year Rating and Target Price History

Company (Code) Date Rating Target Price (W) YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870) 02/22/2018 Trading Buy 32,000 80,000 12/05/2017 Buy 39,000 09/05/2017 Buy 35,000 60,000 01/02/2017 No Coverage 11/09/2016 Buy 36,000 40,000 08/11/2016 Buy 45,000 20,000 05/12/2016 Buy 60,000

03/22/2016 Buy 50,000 0 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr 18

Stock Ratings Industry Ratings Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving Trading Buy : Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight : Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening Sell : Relative performance of -10% Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆)) * Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months. * Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development. * The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings. * The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Equity Ratings Distribution & Investment Banking Services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Equity Ratings Distribution 74.13% 15.92% 9.95% 0.00% Investment Banking Services 75.00% 11.11% 13.89% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2018)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst Certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

Disclaimers This report was prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo, a broker-dealer registered in the Republic of Korea and a member of the Korea Exchange. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith and from sources believed to be reliable, but such information has not been independently verified and Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein or of any translation into English from the Korean language. In case of an English translation of a report prepared in the Korean language, the original Korean language report may have been made available to investors in advance of this report. The intended recipients of this report are sophisticated institutional investors who have substantial knowledge of the local business environment, its common practices, laws and accounting principles and no person whose receipt or use of this report would violate any laws or regulations or subject Mirae Asset Daewoo or any of its affiliates to registration or licensing requirements in any jurisdiction shall receive or make any use hereof. This report is for general information purposes only and it is not and shall not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to effect transactions in any securities or other financial instruments. The report does not constitute investment advice to any person and such person shall not be treated as a client of Mirae Asset Daewoo by virtue of receiving this report. This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment

situations, or needs of individual clients. The report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Information and opinions contained herein are as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this report and the income from them may depreciate or appreciate, and investors may incur losses on investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents do not accept any liability for any loss arising out of the use hereof. Mirae Asset Daewoo may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the opinions presented in this report. The reports may reflect different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates and their directors, officers, employees and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo.

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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 April 25, 2018 YG Entertainment

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