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YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Profit contribution of content production business to be delayed Entertainment 1Q18 review: Earnings disappoint our expectations and the consensus For 1Q18, YG Entertainment reported consolidated revenue of W77.3bn (-27.7% YoY; Results Comment all growth figures hereafter are YoY) and operating profit of W2.3bn (-84.4%), missing May 14, 2018 consensus estimates (W88.1bn and W9.1bn, respectively) and our expectations (W87.3bn and W8.5bn, respectively). There had been bullish expectations on the quarter, due to the anticipated recognition of Big Bang’s last tour prior to the military enlistment of key members. However, the entertainment content production business (which posted a loss of W4bn in 4Q17) weighed on earnings , posting another loss of (Maintain) Trading Buy W3.8bn (versus our original expectation of breakeven). For Japan concerts, the company recognized revenue from Big Bang’ s dome tour (650,000 attendees) and a portion of iKON’s 2H17 tour (100,000 attendees). Concert Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 30,000 attendees fell by 15% (following a record quarter in 1Q17), resulting in a 30% decline in royalties; that said, the decline was broadly within expectations. Album revenue was Share Price (05/11/18, W) 27,350 also lackluster, aside from iKON’s new comeback album released in February (100,000 copies sold). Meanwhile, YG Entertainment appears to be maintaining a tight grip on the music streaming market, supported by new album releases by iKON (Febru ary) Expected Return 10% and WINNER (April) and a new single by Big Bang. Top line should shrink, but profitability should improve OP (18F, Wbn) 21 Revenue will inevitably decline from 2Q18, due to the void left by Big Bang. From 2014 Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 27 to 2017, the group was responsible for 82%, 87%, 84%, and 70% of total concert attendees (based on Japan concerts), respectively, and 40%, 73%, 50%, and 48% of EPS Growth (18F, %) 4.6 domestic album sales, respectively. As we have emphasized before, the company’s transition to a new generation of artists—iKON, BLACKPINK, and WINNER—bears close Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 16.3 watching. The three groups, which are entering their fourth, third, and fifth years after P/E (18F, x) 28.1 their respective debuts, have lower profit sharing ratios than Big Bang (13 years ). As Market P/E (18F, x) 9.5 such, the growth of these groups is positive for profitability. KOSDAQ 865.93 We believe the three groups are basically doing well. iKON has two dome concerts (200,000 attendees) scheduled, which are similar to the group’s 2H17 concerts in size . Market Cap (Wbn) 497 BLACKPINK is about to embark on a bigger-than-expected Japan arena tour in July (s ix Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 performances, 66,000 attendees). WINNER, which wrapped up its Japan tour (11 performances, 80,000 attendees) in April, is now getting ready to launch an arena tour. Free Float (%) 62.7 We expect the three acts’ 2018 Japanese concert ticket sales to be around 37% of Big Foreign Ownership (%) 15.6 Bang’s 2017 figure (1.44mn). Beta (12M) 0.76 52-Week Low 24,850 Profit contribution of content production business to be delayed 52-Week High 36,150 While it is meaningful that YG Entertainment has finally launched its content production business, after working hard to recruit production talent, profit (%) 1M 6M 12M contribution looks likely to take longer than expected. During 4Q17 and 1Q18, in- Absolute -11.1 -9.7 -19.6 house-produced entertainment shows Mix Nine and Do the Right Thing were aired on JTBC (BLACKPINK House is a web-based show). Losses incurred during the two Relative -9.1 -24.9 -39.8 quarters totaled W8bn, close to the shows’ production budgets, which we attribute to the company’s unfavorable contract terms (being new to the business) and the shows’ 170 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ weak ratings. That said, two new series—iKON TV and YG Future Strategy Office , which 150 will air on the web and Netflix, respectively—are unlikely to generate significant losses , 130 given the nature of their platforms. 110 Maintain Trading Buy and lower TP to W30,000 90 We maintain our Trading Buy call on YG Entertainment and lower our target price by 70 6.3% to W30,000, based on 27x our 2018F EPS. Top-line contraction has now become a 5.17 9.17 1.18 5.18 reality. Looking ahead, the key points to watch are the expected improvement in margins, next-generation artist lineup, decline in subsidiary losses, and normalization in China. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (12) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 156 193 322 350 285 273 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 22 32 24 21 26 [email protected] OP margin (%) 14.1 11.4 9.9 6.9 7.4 9.5 NP (Wbn) 19 28 19 18 19 23 EPS (W) 1,290 1,700 1,094 931 974 1,201 ROE (%) 13.4 14.7 7.7 5.7 5.4 6.4 P/E (x) 34.3 26.2 25.9 31.0 28.1 22.8 P/B (x) 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates May 14, 2018 YG Entertainment Table 1. Target price calculation (Wbn, x) Valuation - P/E 2018 F Target market cap 539 Net profit attributable to controlling interests 20 Target P/E 27.0 Target price (W) 30,000 Upside potential (%) 10 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18P 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 107 72 75 95 77 70 64 73 350 285 273 Products 27 32 24 28 19 24 22 21 110 86 90 Albums 5 7 4 2 2 3 3 3 17 12 13 Digital content 13 16 12 14 11 13 12 11 55 48 49 Goods, etc. 8 9 8 12 6 7 6 7 38 26 28 Management 80 41 51 64 58 47 43 51 236 199 183 Concerts 13 7 21 15 2 8 10 8 56 29 32 Advertising 9 12 10 8 7 12 10 8 40 37 38 Royalties 49 6 5 23 35 8 4 18 84 65 40 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 3 7 7 6 20 23 26 Commissions 4 11 9 11 8 9 9 9 36 34 37 Production 0 0 0 4 3 3 3 3 4 11 10 Gross profit 33 25 21 22 20 25 24 26 101 96 100 Operating profit 15 4 1 5 2 6 5 8 25 21 26 OP margin (%) 13.9 6.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 8.1 7.9 11.1 7.2 7.4 9.5 Pretax profit 14 6 8 3 3 7 7 7 30 24 28 Net profit 6 5 5 -4 1 5 5 5 12 16 20 Net margin (%) 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 1.0 7.3 7.5 6.6 3.4 5.4 7.2 Net profit attributable to 7 4 6 0 2 6 6 6 17.8 20.0 23.5 controlling interests YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -27.7 -2.9 -14.4 -23.7 8.7 -18.6 -3.9 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 6.7 -26.9 -25.9 -9.9 -23.2 21.8 -22.0 5.1 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 44.2 -28.0 15.2 -16.6 -19.2 1.9 -15.7 -7.9 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -37.8 1.3 14.4 18.0 6.0 -5.1 5.0 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -84.4 30.6 242.2 76.4 -21.0 -16.3 22.5 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR -87.0 8.3 -9.5 TTB -15.5 30.2 26.1 Key assumption Ticket sales volume in Japan 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 1.8 0.7 0.7 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %, %p) Previous Revised Change Notes 18F 19F 18F 19F 18F 19F Revenue 329 315 285 273 -13.5 -13.2 Reflected 1Q18 results and updated concert schedule Operating profit 24 23 21 26 -12.8 10.6 Lowered gross margin of content production business Net profit 20 20 20 23 -1.8 19.1 Revised tax rate OP margin 7.2 7.4 7.4 9.5 0.2 2.1 Net margin 3.4 5.8 7.0 8.6 3.6 2.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling interests Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 May 14, 2018 YG Entertainment Figure 1. P/E band (W) 60,000 Price (adj.) 50,000 40,000 42x 30,000 35x 29x 20,000 23x 10,000 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2.
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