[Korea] Entertainment May 13, 2021

YG Entertainment Buy (122870 KQ ) (Maintain)

Increasing content leverage TP: W56,000 Upside: 25.8%

Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected]

1Q21 review : Big earnings beat Consolidated revenue of W97bn (+83.9% YoY), OP of W9.5bn (turn to profit YoY) ó In 1Q21, YG Entertainment proved its enhanced fundamentals by overcoming the absence of offline performances/activities with the release of new content (Rosé and Treasure). ó Revenue from albums/digital content/goods was up 170.6% YoY, driven by strong sales of albums (980,000 copies; helped by new releases) and goods. ó Digital content revenue surged 125.6% YoY, boosted by BLACKPINK’s online concert (280,000 paid views and net revenue of around W8bn). ó Revenue from Google came in strong at W4.5bn (excluding BLACKPINK concert; vs. W2.5bn in 1Q20) on the back of new releases and subscriber growth. ó Despite constraints on artist activities, management revenue expanded 44.7% YoY, fueled by luxury advertisers’ (Dior, Saint Laurent and Tiffany & Co.) strong preference for YG artists. ó Elsewhere, the company recorded W15.6bn from TV production (YG Studioplex’s Mr. Queen ) and a valuation gain of roughly W5bn related to Tencent Music Entertainment.

Expectations on 2H21 artist Artist activities to gather steam; IP monetization to strengthen on Weverse incl usion activities and Weverse ó 1) Earnings: During the 2018-20 absence of its main artist group, YG Entertainment built a robust lineup that includes BLACKPINK, Treasure, and iKON. We expect robust ad and appearance income to continue, supported by the growing international profile of the company’s artists. ó Upcoming events: 1) the release of live albums by AKMU, Kang Seung-yoon, and BLACKPINK in 2Q21; and 2) the comebacks of Lisa, Treasure, and iKON in 3Q21 and BLACKPINK in 4Q21 ó 2) Multiple: We believe the inclusion of the company’s artists in the Weverse fan community platform (through collaboration with NAVER/HYBE Corporation ) will strengthen its monetization capabilities. YG Entertainment’s exposure to indirect revenue is only 44% (as of 2020), indicating strong upside to fan base monetization. ó Of note, HYBE Corporation has a 47:53 ratio of direct (albums/performances/ads) to indirect (content/merchandise/licensing) revenue.

Valuation and recommendation Strong case for earnings and multiple expansion in 2021; target valuation is W1tr ó We reaffirm our Buy call and target price of W56,000 on YG Entertainment. Our target valuation of W1tr is based on a P/E of 27x our 12-month forward net profit estimate. ó We believe the long-awaited mobilization of the company’s full lineup could finally happen this year with the comebacks of G-Dragon and BLACKPINK (entire group). ó We find it positive that the company is increasing its content leverage on the heels of its exit from non-core businesses (food/cosmetics). Key data

Current price (5/12/21, W) 44,500 Market cap (Wbn) 820 230 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (21F, Wbn) 40 Shares outstanding (mn) 18 180 Consensus OP (21F, Wbn) 33 Free float (%) 74.0 EPS growth (21F, %) 254.4 Foreign ownership (%) 10.8 130 P/E (21F, x) 24.4 Beta (12M) 1.19

80 Market P/E (21F, x) 12.3 52-week low (W) 28,550 5.20 9.20 1.21 5.21 KOSDAQ 967.10 52-week high (W) 58,700

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Absolute -1.3 1.9 51.4 Revenue (Wbn) 350 269 254 255 362 491 Relative 2.1 -11.4 7.1 OP (Wbn) 24 20 4 6 40 70

OP margin (%) 6.9 7.4 1.6 2.4 11.0 14.3 NP (Wbn) 18 18 -22 9 34 51 EPS (W) 931 911 -1,118 515 1,825 2,773 ROE (%) 5.7 5.1 -6.2 2.7 9.2 12.5 P/E (x) 31.0 52.2 - 86.8 24.4 16.0 P/B (x) 1.6 2.6 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 Div. yield (%) 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. May 13, 2021 YG Entertainment

Table 1. Valuation (Wbn)

Valuation - P/E 21F 22F 12MF Fair market cap 1,026 1,026 1,026 NP (attributable to owners) 34 51 38 Target P/E (x) 30.5 20.1 27.0 Recent three-year avg. Fair price (W) 56,000 56,000 56,000 25.8% upside Source : Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn tickets, %p) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21P 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F Revenue 53 54 66 83 97 68 85 112 255 362 491 Products 16 16 29 43 44 25 39 54 104 163 212 Management 36 38 37 41 53 43 45 58 151 200 279 GP 16.9 19.3 21.1 23.5 28.7 21.5 27.0 41.3 81 119 157 OP -2.5 1.5 1.7 5.4 9.5 2.4 5.9 21.7 6 40 70 OP margin (%) -4.8 2.7 2.5 6.5 9.8 3.5 7.0 19.3 2.3 10.9 14.3 Pretax profit -5.7 14.4 3.5 8.2 20.5 4.5 7.4 23.0 20 55 75 NP -8.9 7.5 1.6 2.9 8.7 3.9 6.4 20.0 3 39 57 Net margin (%) -16.8 14.0 2.4 3.5 8.9 5.8 7.6 17.8 1.2 10.8 11.6 NP attributable to owners -4.2 7.2 1.0 5.4 6.3 3.5 5.8 18.0 9.4 33.6 51.1 YoY Revenue -18.4 -31.4 2.9 77.0 83.9 27.6 29.1 34.7 0.7 41.9 35.5 Products -12.9 -39.1 25.2 94.7 170.6 61.0 35.4 25.8 15.9 56.7 30.0 Management -15.0 -24.2 -5.1 -6.6 44.7 13.9 24.0 44.1 -13.4 31.8 40.0 GP -2.3 -14.0 16.6 32.8 69.6 11.4 28.1 76.1 7.0 46.7 32.5 OP RR TTB TTB -47.3 TTB 64.2 259.0 301.9 42.2 560.3 77.4 NP TTR TTB TTB TTB TTB -47.6 307.8 588.1 TTB 1,139.8 45.4 Major assumptions Album sales 119 158 822 1,559 981 620 900 1,600 2,658 4,101 4,921 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research

Figure 1. Weverse entry to strengthen monetization capabilities

Indirect revenue (merchandise/licensing/content/fan club) (%) Direct revenue (albums/concerts/ads/performance fees) 100

80

60

40

53.4 20 44.0

0 YG Entertainment HYBE Corporation

Note: Digital music revenue not included Source : Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research

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Figure 2. Monetization via fan platforms: Partnerships between new platforms and major content providers

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research

Figure 3. NAVER Z’s ownership (voting rights) structure

YG Plus, 1.3 YG Investment, 1.9 JYP Entertainment, 3.2

HYBE Corporation, 4.5

Snow (common), 89.0

Note: Shareholders other than Snow hold preferred shares. Source : NAVER Z , Mirae Asset Securities Research

Figure 4. Revenue from Google to continue to grow

(Wbn) 20

16 +50% 12

8

4

0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research

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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Revenue 254 255 362 491 Current assets 160 245 329 438 Cost of revenue 178 174 244 334 Cash & equivalents 48 52 124 228 GP 76 81 118 157 AR & other receivables 19 24 34 36 SG&A expenses 71 75 79 87 Inventory 16 33 33 35 OP (adj.) 4 6 40 70 Other current assets 77 136 138 139 OP 4 6 40 70 Non-current assets 356 297 291 284 Non-operating profit -2 14 15 5 Investments in associates 23 17 17 18 Net financial income 2 0 0 0 PP&E 149 165 158 150 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 52 47 46 45 Pretax profit 2 20 55 75 Total assets 516 543 620 722 Income tax 12 7 16 18 Current liabilities 77 104 142 188 Profit from continuing operations -10 14 39 57 AP & other payables 33 38 52 71 Profit from discontinued operations -15 -10 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 13 13 15 15 NP -25 3 39 57 Other current liabilities 31 53 75 102 Attributable to owners -22 9 34 51 Non-current liabilities 18 16 17 17 Attributable to minority interests -3 -6 5 6 Long-term financial liabilities 17 15 15 15 Total comprehensive income -24 3 39 57 Other non-current liabilities 1 1 2 2 Attributable to owners -21 9 107 156 Total liabilities 95 120 159 205 Attributable to minority interests -3 -6 -68 -100 Equity attributable to owners 337 352 384 435 EBITDA 21 22 49 79 Capital stock 9 9 9 9 FCF 19 -6 70 106 Capital surplus 210 218 218 218 EBITDA margin (%) 8.3 8.6 13.5 16.1 Retained earnings 115 125 158 209 OP margin (%) 1.6 2.4 11.0 14.3 Minority interests 85 71 77 82 Net margin (%) -8.7 3.5 9.4 10.4 Shareholders' equity 422 423 461 517

Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Operating cash flow 60 26 74 106 P/E (x) - 86.8 24.4 16.0 NP -25 3 39 57 P/CF (x) 32.6 48.2 12.6 9.8 Non-cash income/expenses 41 14 26 27 P/B (x) 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 Depreciation 14 14 9 8 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.9 39.6 14.2 7.6 Amortization 3 2 1 1 EPS (W) -1,118 515 1,825 2,773 Other 24 -2 16 18 CFPS (W) 838 927 3,527 4,520 Chg. in working capital 42 9 25 40 BPS (W) 18,508 19,082 20,827 23,600 Chg. in AR & other receivables 6 -6 -8 -1 DPS (W) 0 0 0 0 Chg. in inventory 4 -22 0 -2 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chg. in AP & other payables 4 10 7 8 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income tax -15 -4 -16 -18 Revenue growth (%) -5.6 0.4 42.0 35.6 Cash flow from investing activities 10 -11 -3 -1 EBITDA growth (%) -25.0 4.8 122.7 61.2 Chg. in PP&E -40 -32 -2 0 OP growth (%) -80.0 50.0 566.7 75.0 Chg. in intangible assets 1 0 0 0 EPS growth (%) - - 254.4 51.9 Chg. in financial assets 50 3 -1 -1 AR turnover (x) 13.3 14.2 14.7 16.7 Other -1 18 0 0 Inventory turnover (x) 12.9 10.3 10.9 14.4 Cash flow from financing activities -81 -10 2 0 AP turnover (x) 15.4 11.7 12.0 11.9 Chg. in financial liabilities -54 -2 2 0 ROA (%) -4.4 0.6 6.7 8.5 Chg. in equity 0 8 0 0 ROE (%) -6.2 2.7 9.2 12.5 Dividends -3 0 0 0 ROIC (%) -12.0 1.9 14.6 35.4 Other -24 -16 0 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 22.5 28.5 34.6 39.7 Chg. in cash -11 4 72 103 Current ratio (%) 209.3 236.2 231.0 233.5 Beginning balance 59 48 52 124 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -4.6 -6.0 -43.4 -58.7 Ending balance 48 52 124 228 Interest coverage ratio (x) 2.2 8.5 62.9 107.1 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates

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Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history

Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870) 02/25/21 Buy 56,000 80,000 08/13/20 Trading Buy 51,000 05/14/20 Trading Buy 36,000 60,000 02/27/20 Buy 40,000 11/29/19 Hold 40,000 05/14/19 Buy 49,000 20,000 10/24/18 Buy 60,000

0 May 19 May 20 May 21

Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated ( ■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell ( ◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 79.00% 13.00% 7.00% 1.00% Investment banking services 63.16% 31.58% 5.26% 0.00% * Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2021)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.

Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Securities”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Securities except as otherwise stated herein.

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