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YG Entertainment Buy (122870 KQ ) (Maintain) [Korea] Entertainment May 13, 2021 YG Entertainment Buy (122870 KQ ) (Maintain) Increasing content leverage TP: W56,000 Upside: 25.8% Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. Jeong -yeob Park [email protected] 1Q21 review : Big earnings beat Consolidated revenue of W97bn (+83.9% YoY), OP of W9.5bn (turn to profit YoY) In 1Q21, YG Entertainment proved its enhanced fundamentals by overcoming the absence of offline performances/activities with the release of new content (Rosé and Treasure). Revenue from albums/digital content/goods was up 170.6% YoY, driven by strong sales of albums (980,000 copies; helped by new releases) and goods. Digital content revenue surged 125.6% YoY, boosted by BLACKPINK’s online concert (280,000 paid views and net revenue of around W8bn). Revenue from Google came in strong at W4.5bn (excluding BLACKPINK concert; vs. W2.5bn in 1Q20) on the back of new releases and subscriber growth. Despite constraints on artist activities, management revenue expanded 44.7% YoY, fueled by luxury advertisers’ (Dior, Saint Laurent and Tiffany & Co.) strong preference for YG artists. Elsewhere, the company recorded W15.6bn from TV production (YG Studioplex’s Mr. Queen ) and a valuation gain of roughly W5bn related to Tencent Music Entertainment. Expectations on 2H21 artist Artist activities to gather steam; IP monetization to strengthen on Weverse incl usion activities and Weverse 1) Earnings: During the 2018-20 absence of its main artist group, YG Entertainment built a robust lineup that includes BLACKPINK, Treasure, and iKON. We expect robust ad and appearance income to continue, supported by the growing international profile of the company’s artists. Upcoming events: 1) the release of live albums by AKMU, Kang Seung-yoon, and BLACKPINK in 2Q21; and 2) the comebacks of Lisa, Treasure, and iKON in 3Q21 and BLACKPINK in 4Q21 2) Multiple: We believe the inclusion of the company’s artists in the Weverse fan community platform (through collaboration with NAVER/HYBE Corporation ) will strengthen its monetization capabilities. YG Entertainment’s exposure to indirect revenue is only 44% (as of 2020), indicating strong upside to fan base monetization. Of note, HYBE Corporation has a 47:53 ratio of direct (albums/performances/ads) to indirect (content/merchandise/licensing) revenue. Valuation and recommendation Strong case for earnings and multiple expansion in 2021; target valuation is W1tr We reaffirm our Buy call and target price of W56,000 on YG Entertainment. Our target valuation of W1tr is based on a P/E of 27x our 12-month forward net profit estimate. We believe the long-awaited mobilization of the company’s full lineup could finally happen this year with the comebacks of G-Dragon and BLACKPINK (entire group). We find it positive that the company is increasing its content leverage on the heels of its exit from non-core businesses (food/cosmetics). Key data Current price (5/12/21, W) 44,500 Market cap (Wbn) 820 230 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ OP (21F, Wbn) 40 Shares outstanding (mn) 18 180 Consensus OP (21F, Wbn) 33 Free float (%) 74.0 EPS growth (21F, %) 254.4 Foreign ownership (%) 10.8 130 P/E (21F, x) 24.4 Beta (12M) 1.19 80 Market P/E (21F, x) 12.3 52-week low (W) 28,550 5.20 9.20 1.21 5.21 KOSDAQ 967.10 52-week high (W) 58,700 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Absolute -1.3 1.9 51.4 Revenue (Wbn) 350 269 254 255 362 491 Relative 2.1 -11.4 7.1 OP (Wbn) 24 20 4 6 40 70 OP margin (%) 6.9 7.4 1.6 2.4 11.0 14.3 NP (Wbn) 18 18 -22 9 34 51 EPS (W) 931 911 -1,118 515 1,825 2,773 ROE (%) 5.7 5.1 -6.2 2.7 9.2 12.5 P/E (x) 31.0 52.2 - 86.8 24.4 16.0 P/B (x) 1.6 2.6 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 Div. yield (%) 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimat es Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. May 13, 2021 YG Entertainment Table 1. Valuation (Wbn) Valuation - P/E 21F 22F 12MF Fair market cap 1,026 1,026 1,026 NP (attributable to owners) 34 51 38 Target P/E (x) 30.5 20.1 27.0 Recent three-year avg. Fair price (W) 56,000 56,000 56,000 25.8% upside Source : Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn tickets, %p) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21P 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F Revenue 53 54 66 83 97 68 85 112 255 362 491 Products 16 16 29 43 44 25 39 54 104 163 212 Management 36 38 37 41 53 43 45 58 151 200 279 GP 16.9 19.3 21.1 23.5 28.7 21.5 27.0 41.3 81 119 157 OP -2.5 1.5 1.7 5.4 9.5 2.4 5.9 21.7 6 40 70 OP margin (%) -4.8 2.7 2.5 6.5 9.8 3.5 7.0 19.3 2.3 10.9 14.3 Pretax profit -5.7 14.4 3.5 8.2 20.5 4.5 7.4 23.0 20 55 75 NP -8.9 7.5 1.6 2.9 8.7 3.9 6.4 20.0 3 39 57 Net margin (%) -16.8 14.0 2.4 3.5 8.9 5.8 7.6 17.8 1.2 10.8 11.6 NP attributable to owners -4.2 7.2 1.0 5.4 6.3 3.5 5.8 18.0 9.4 33.6 51.1 YoY Revenue -18.4 -31.4 2.9 77.0 83.9 27.6 29.1 34.7 0.7 41.9 35.5 Products -12.9 -39.1 25.2 94.7 170.6 61.0 35.4 25.8 15.9 56.7 30.0 Management -15.0 -24.2 -5.1 -6.6 44.7 13.9 24.0 44.1 -13.4 31.8 40.0 GP -2.3 -14.0 16.6 32.8 69.6 11.4 28.1 76.1 7.0 46.7 32.5 OP RR TTB TTB -47.3 TTB 64.2 259.0 301.9 42.2 560.3 77.4 NP TTR TTB TTB TTB TTB -47.6 307.8 588.1 TTB 1,139.8 45.4 Major assumptions Album sales 119 158 822 1,559 981 620 900 1,600 2,658 4,101 4,921 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Figure 1. Weverse entry to strengthen monetization capabilities Indirect revenue (merchandise/licensing/content/fan club) (%) Direct revenue (albums/concerts/ads/performance fees) 100 80 60 40 53.4 20 44.0 0 YG Entertainment HYBE Corporation Note: Digital music revenue not included Source : Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Mirae Asset Securities Research 2 May 13, 2021 YG Entertainment Figure 2. Monetization via fan platforms: Partnerships between new platforms and major content providers Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Figure 3. NAVER Z’s ownership (voting rights) structure YG Plus, 1.3 YG Investment, 1.9 JYP Entertainment, 3.2 HYBE Corporation, 4.5 Snow (common), 89.0 Note: Shareholders other than Snow hold preferred shares. Source : NAVER Z , Mirae Asset Securities Research Figure 4. Revenue from Google to continue to grow (Wbn) 20 16 +50% 12 8 4 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Mirae Asset Securities Research 3 May 13, 2021 YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Revenue 254 255 362 491 Current assets 160 245 329 438 Cost of revenue 178 174 244 334 Cash & equivalents 48 52 124 228 GP 76 81 118 157 AR & other receivables 19 24 34 36 SG&A expenses 71 75 79 87 Inventory 16 33 33 35 OP (adj.) 4 6 40 70 Other current assets 77 136 138 139 OP 4 6 40 70 Non-current assets 356 297 291 284 Non-operating profit -2 14 15 5 Investments in associates 23 17 17 18 Net financial income 2 0 0 0 PP&E 149 165 158 150 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 52 47 46 45 Pretax profit 2 20 55 75 Total assets 516 543 620 722 Income tax 12 7 16 18 Current liabilities 77 104 142 188 Profit from continuing operations -10 14 39 57 AP & other payables 33 38 52 71 Profit from discontinued operations -15 -10 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 13 13 15 15 NP -25 3 39 57 Other current liabilities 31 53 75 102 Attributable to owners -22 9 34 51 Non-current liabilities 18 16 17 17 Attributable to minority interests -3 -6 5 6 Long-term financial liabilities 17 15 15 15 Total comprehensive income -24 3 39 57 Other non-current liabilities 1 1 2 2 Attributable to owners -21 9 107 156 Total liabilities 95 120 159 205 Attributable to minority interests -3 -6 -68 -100 Equity attributable to owners 337 352 384 435 EBITDA 21 22 49 79 Capital stock 9 9 9 9 FCF 19 -6 70 106 Capital surplus 210 218 218 218 EBITDA margin (%) 8.3 8.6 13.5 16.1 Retained earnings 115 125 158 209 OP margin (%) 1.6 2.4 11.0 14.3 Minority interests 85 71 77 82 Net margin (%) -8.7 3.5 9.4 10.4 Shareholders' equity 422 423 461 517 Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Operating cash flow 60 26 74 106 P/E (x) - 86.8 24.4 16.0 NP -25 3 39 57 P/CF (x) 32.6 48.2 12.6 9.8 Non-cash income/expenses 41 14 26 27 P/B (x) 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 Depreciation 14 14 9 8 EV/EBITDA (x) 26.9 39.6 14.2 7.6 Amortization 3 2 1 1 EPS (W) -1,118 515 1,825 2,773 Other 24 -2 16 18 CFPS (W) 838 927 3,527 4,520 Chg.
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