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YG Entertainment (122870.KQ) Positives Abound

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YG Entertainment (122870.KQ) Positives Abound YG Entertainment (122870.KQ) Positives abound Company Comment │ Feb 1, 2019 In addition to unveiling two new boy groups and a solo artist this year, YG Ent should see its presence expand in the US. Backed by its growing artist lineup and greater use of existing artists, we expect the firm to enjoy sound earnings improvement in 2019. We suggest YG Ent as our entertainment Buy (maintain) sector top pick. TP W56,000 (maintain) CP (19/01/31) W43,500 Sector Entertainment Two boy groups and So-mi to debut this year Kospi/Kosdaq 2,204.85 / 716.86 Market cap (common) US$707.41mn At YG Ent, two new boy groups are slated to debut this year. Through the reality Outstanding shares (common) 18.2mn singing show YG Treasure Box, the company has selected members for the boy 52W high (’18/12/26) W48,950 group Treasure. The group should soon release a digital track and start low (’18/03/08) W27,050 Average trading value (60D) US$12.25mn contributing to the company’s sales. The firm also plans to form a second boy Dividend yield (2018E) 0.32% group from YG Treasure Box participants by Feb 4. With some of the new Foreign ownership 16.2% members already disclosed, the group is projected to debut within the year. Major shareholders Having recently signed a contract with The Black Label (a consolidated HS Yang & 6 others 21.2% subsidiary of YG Ent), So-mi, the winner of the reality singing show Produce NAVER 9.1% 101, is expected to debut as a solo artist in 2Q19. Considering the high public Share perf 3M 6M 12M awareness of So-mi, we expect her to fare as well as Chung Ha, another Produce Absolute (%) 18.0 30.6 47.0 101 star. Relative (%p) 6.8 41.3 87.3 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F Sales 349.9 278.0 344.6 508.0 BLACKPINK to make US stage debut at Coachella Valley Festival Chg 8.7 -20.5 24.0 47.4 BLACKPINK is due to make its first official appearance in the US music scene OP 24.2 9.5 28.7 49.0 at the Coachella Valley Music Festival in April. With the group’s US debut OPM 6.9 3.4 8.3 9.6 expected to enhance its popularity in the US, US digital music sales (including NP 17.8 7.1 24.7 39.0 those from YouTube) should increase. Among the multiple K-pop groups at EPS 991 392 1,357 2,145 Korea’s top-three entertainment companies (SM, YG, and JYP), BLACKPINK Chg -15.4 -60.4 246.2 58.1 is likely to make most progress in the global market this year. P/E 29.1 121.2 32.1 20.3 P/B 1.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 2019, a year of promise for YG Ent EV/EBITDA 11.8 42.2 19.2 11.9 ROE 5.7 2.1 6.9 10.1 Expecting the firm to both enjoy a series of positive momentum-boosting events Debt/equity 35.1 18.6 18.1 16.5 in 2019 and post stable earnings growth, we maintain a Buy rating and TP of Net debt -210.2 -146.5 -184.1 -216.0 W56,000 on YG Ent, recommending it as our entertainment sector top pick. Unit: Wbn, %, won, x Note 1: NP excludes minority interests The firm likely recorded favorable 4Q18 digital music sales thanks to the strong 2: EPS, P/E, P/B, ROE based on NP (excl minority interests) performance of: 1) solo songs from BLACKPINK’s Jennie (titled SOLO) and Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates WINNER’s MINO (Fiance); and 2) the song Millions from K-pop group WINNER. That said, YG Ent is likely to book lower-than-expected 4Q18 OP of W3.5bn, due to deferred overseas revenue recognition related to Jennie’s SOLO (to 1Q19). Meanwhile, 4Q18 earnings at consolidated subsidiary YG PLUS likely continued to improve, backed by robust growth at both its music distribution business (secures commissions from music streaming platforms, including NAVER VIBE) and its cosmetics business. Hazell Lee, Analyst 822)768-7535, [email protected] YG Entertainment www.nhqv.com Two boy groups and So-mi to debut this year Two boy groups YG Ent selected members for its boy groups WINNER and iKON through the reality TV consisting of YG show Win: Who is Next. The company then ran another reality show YG Treasure Box Treasure Box (on online platforms such as NAVER V Live and YouTube) to select members for a new participants to boy group. The show racked up 0.44mn subscribers and 57.77mn views on NAVER V debut this year Live, as well as 0.47mn subscribers on YouTube. By nationality, the largest number of subscribers came from Indonesia, followed by Japan and the Philippines. As such, the show has offered opportunities for YG Treasure Box participants to build fan bases overseas. The company’s new boy group Treasure is expected to release a digital track in the near term. Out of the remaining YG Treasure Box participants, the firm plans to select and announce members for another new boy group by Feb 4. Little information is available yet regarding the second group. That said, as Japanese members are expected to join both groups, they are likely to actively perform in Japan. YG Ent’s main Having recently signed a contract with The Black Label (a consoliated subsidiary of YG artist linup to Ent), So-mi, the winner of the reality TV show Produce 101, is set to make her debut as a expand to six on solo artist by 2Q19. Even though they have yet to make their official debuts, the two boy debut of two new groups and So-mi—which will bring YG Ent’s main artist linup up to six artists this boy groups and one year—have already built strong fan bases. Accordingly, they are expected to fare well. solo artist Meanwhile, once Big Bang’s members (except Seungri) are discharged from the military by end-2019, they should contribute greatly to YG Ent’s earnings from 2020. Noting such points, we believe that the company boasts strong earnings growth potential, and as such, we suggest it as our top pick for the entertainment sector. Upcoming boy group Treasure – Seven numbers (including a Second upcoming boy group – Only out of six numbers Japanese member) have been announced (including a Japanese member) have been announced Source: YG Ent, NH I&S Research Center Source: YG Ent, NH I&S Research Center 2 YG Entertainment www.nhqv.com 4Q18 preview (K-IFRS consolidated) (Unit: Wbn, %) 4Q18E 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 1Q19F Estimates y-y q-q Previous Consen Sales 95.5 77.3 62.7 65.2 72.8 -23.8 11.6 73.9 79.9 OP 3.5 1.9 1.8 2.3 3.5 0.1 52.6 4.1 5.2 OPM 3.7 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.8 5.5 6.4 Pre-tax profit 2.6 2.9 1.7 3.2 3.8 42.6 18.4 4.3 8.4 NP (excl minority -0.1 2.3 -0.1 2.0 2.9 TTP 48.5 3.4 6.3 interest) Source: WISEfn, NH I&S Research Center estimates Earnings forecasts (IFRS consolidated) (Unit: Wbn, won, x, %) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F Sales - Revised 349.9 278.0 344.6 508.0 - Previous 349.9 279.1 366.4 501.2 - Change -0.4 -5.9 1.4 OP - Revised 24.2 9.5 28.7 49.0 - Previous 24.2 10.1 30.0 49.1 - Change -5.9 -4.3 -0.2 OPM - Revised 6.9 3.4 8.3 9.6 EBITDA 34.3 19.0 36.0 55.4 NP (excl minority interests) 17.8 7.1 24.7 39.0 EPS - Revised 991 392 1,357 2,145 - Previous 416 1,413 2,150 - Change -5.8 -4.0 -0.2 P/E 29.1 121.2 32.1 20.3 P/B 1.6 2.7 2.3 2.1 EV/EBITDA 11.8 42.2 19.2 11.9 ROE 5.7 2.1 6.9 10.1 Note: EPS, P/E, P/B, and ROE based on NP (excluding minority interests) Source: NH I&S Research Center estimates 3 YG Entertainment www.nhqv.com Quarterly earnings forecasts (Unit: Wbn, %) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18E 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2017 2018E 2019F Sales 106.9 72.3 75.2 95.5 77.3 62.7 65.2 72.8 79.9 85.9 88.4 90.4 349.9 278.0 344.6 Physical/digital/merchandise 26.6 31.7 24.1 30.1 19.6 25.8 29.9 27.9 32.6 34.2 35.8 35.3 112.5 103.2 137.9 Physical music 5.2 6.5 3.7 2.5 2.1 3.4 2.6 3.7 3.9 2.7 1.8 2.6 18.0 11.7 11.0 Digital music 13.0 15.9 12.1 14.1 11.3 13.0 14.1 16.6 18.6 21.8 22.9 21.0 55.1 55.0 84.4 Merchandise (others) 8.3 9.3 8.2 13.5 6.2 9.4 13.3 7.6 10.0 9.7 11.1 11.7 39.3 36.4 42.5 Concert 12.5 7.0 21.5 15.1 1.8 1.2 4.8 11.8 15.8 16.3 17.2 17.7 56.1 19.5 67.0 Ad 9.2 12.3 10.4 8.0 7.3 7.9 7.0 8.1 9.0 9.8 9.9 9.4 39.9 30.2 38.2 Royalty 49.3 5.8 5.4 21.4 34.7 5.0 4.0 5.3 6.0 3.8 6.3 6.4 81.8 49.0 22.5 Performance fee 5.1 4.2 4.7 6.4 3.2 4.7 3.7 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.2 20.3 16.0 21.0 Production - - - 3.9 3.3 0.4 1.3 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.9 5.6 6.0 Commission 4.2 11.2 9.2 10.7 7.4 14.2 9.0 9.3 4.5 9.5 6.8 9.4 35.4 39.9 30.2 (Reference) YG PLUS 8.8 9.0 7.3 7.7 6.7 13.1 17.7 27.8 23.6 29.6 28.2 31.6 32.7 65.4 113.0 Sales y-y (%) 47% -6% -26% 36% -28% -13% -13% -24% 3% 37% 36% 24% 9% -21% 24% COGS 73.9 47.6 54.4 73.2 56.8 41.0 43.7 48.8 53.4 56.7 57.4 59.0 249.2 190.3 226.5 Album 17.7 18.1 16.2 19.1 11.0 18.0 21.5 20.0 22.7 23.9 24.3 24.0 71.1 70.5 94.8 Concert 10.1 6.0 18.1 12.3 2.2 1.4 4.4 10.7 13.6 13.2 13.9 14.3 46.6 18.7 55.0 Service 46.1 23.6 20.0 33.8 36.4 18.9 14.8 17.5 15.6 18.2 17.8 19.3 123.6 87.6 71.0 Production 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 COGS-to-sales ratio 69% 66% 72% 77% 73% 65% 67% 67% 67% 66% 65% 65% 71% 68% 66% COGS y-y (%) 49% -12% -25% 46% -23% -14% -20% -33% -6% 38% 32% 21% 10% -24% 19% GP 33.0 24.6 20.8 22.3 20.5 21.7 21.5 24.0 26.5 29.3 30.9 31.4 100.7 87.7 118.1 GPM 31% 34% 28% 23% 27% 35% 33% 33% 33% 34% 35% 35% 29% 32% 34% GP y-y (%) 42% 7% -27% 11% -38% -12% 3% 8% 29% 35% 44% 31% 6% -13% 35% OP 14.8 4.3 1.5 3.5 1.9 1.8 2.6 3.5 5.2 6.9 8.4 8.2 24.2 9.8 28.7 OPM 14% 6% 2% 4% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 9% 7% 4% 8% OP y-y (%) 56% -36% -88% 0% -87% -59% 78% 0% 170% 291% 219% 134% -24% -59% 192% NP (excl minority interests) 7.3 4.4 6.2 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 2.0 2.9 4.4 5.7 6.9 7.6 17.8 7.1 24.7 NPM (cont.) 7% 6% 8% 0% 3% 0% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 5% 3% 7% NP 3% -34% 88% -105% -68% TTL -68% TTP 92% TTP 252% 161% -5% -60% 246% (excl minority interests) %y-y Note: Service = Ad+royalty+performance fee+commission Source: YG Ent, NH I&S Research Center estimates 4 YG Entertainment www.nhqv.com STATEMENT
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