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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Global Platform Revenue Exhibits Strong Growth YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Global platform revenue exhibits strong growth 3Q18 review: Parent and YouTube both better than expected Entertainment For 3Q18, YG Entertainment reported consolidated revenue of W65.2bn (-13.3% YoY ) and operating profit of W2.6bn (+77.8% YoY). Operating profit fell short of our Results Comment estimate, which did not include content production losses (W1.7bn ). Still, we believe the company pe rformed in line with market expectations, considering the unfavorable November 12, 2018 earnings variables it faced in the quarter. Revenue from YouTube was also better than expected. Despite a widely anticipated void in concerts, Seungri, iKON, and BLACKPINK made great strides in the quarter. In particular, 1) BLACKPINK’s success drove robust digital (Maintain) Buy music revenue (W14.1bn; -11.3% YoY). 2) In addition, revenue from YouTube, a key area of focus, grew strongly to more than W3bn, likely exceeding the 1H18 total. Even after excluding one-time revenue from G-Dragon ’s documentary, YouTube revenue was Target Price (12M, W) 60,000 better than our expectation of W2bn. We believe domestic digital music sales, a relatively stable source of income, and global platform sales (YouTube ads, Apple Share Price (11/09/18, W) 36,200 Music/Spotify licensing, etc.), a fast-growing source of income, will both continue to make an increasing contribution to profits. Expected Return 66% 3) The content production business recorded a loss of W1.7bn (vs. loss of W10.1bn in 4Q17-2Q18), due to higher-than-expected fixed costs. Upcoming programs include YG Treasure Box and another new title for Netflix (NFLX US/CP: US$301.00). We see risks of continued losses . 4) YG Plus remained in the black (operating profit of W0.9bn), OP (18F, Wbn) 12 supported by the recognition of music distribution revenue and smaller losses from Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 12 Moonshot. EPS Growth (18F, %) -57.2 BLACKPINK, iKON, and WINNER to become increasingly active Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 11.3 YG Entertainment’s resources and fan base are shifting toward the company’s next- P/E (18F, x) 90.9 generation artists. WINNER and iKON are currently working on new content that will be released after their current world tours end. Meanwhile, BLACKPINK is also growing Market P/E (18F, x) 8.4 rapidly in terms of fan base and content development . Overall, we expect a reversal KOSDAQ 687.29 from the past couple of years, which were fraught with delays in artist comebacks. Market Cap (Wbn) 658 BLACKPINK recently released the schedule of its first world tour (eight performances so Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 far confirmed) since its debut two years ago. It also looks highly likely that North Free Float (%) 62.7 America will be added to the group’s world tour . In the meantime, the group’s members will embark on solo projects, starting with Jennie on November 12 th . Against Foreign Ownership (%) 14.3 this backdrop, the company should be able to better leverage its partnership with Beta (12M) 0.71 Universal Music Group (more collaboration with global arti sts), increase the frequency 52-Week Low 27,000 of comebacks (more revenue from global platforms), and diversify concert set lists. We think frequent single releases are especially effective in creating music video content , 52-Week High 46,700 which is key to expanding the global fan base and generating short-term buzz. (%) 1M 6M 12M Retain Buy and TP of W60,000; New and existing revenue sources look robust Absolute -12.1 29.5 20.1 We retain our Buy call and target price of W60,000 on YG Entertainment. The growing Relative -1.9 60.3 24.0 fan bases of BLACK PINK, iKON, and WINNER, which have taken hold as the company’s core acts, are effectively translating into earnings (albums, digital music, concerts, etc.). 180 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ Revenue from global platforms, a key area of focus, also exceeded expectations in 160 3Q18. We believe the latest quarterly results confirm the company’s earnings variables 140 and growth variables are progressing smoothly. 120 We recommend aggressively overweighting YG Entertainment, with the year 2020 in 100 mind. The company’s artist lineup (including Big Bang) wil l become fully active in a year, and we believe the company has strong potential on global platforms. Newer 80 11.17 3.18 7.18 11.18 artists like BLACKPINK, iKON, and WINNER, which are rising fast in Korea and Japan, should meaningfully contribute to profits over the long term. We also think the company is favorably positioned to capitalize on the growing presence of global Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. platforms. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 193 322 350 287 300 449 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 32 24 12 25 54 [email protected] OP margin (%) 11.4 9.9 6.9 4.2 8.3 12.0 NP (Wbn) 28 19 18 8 21 45 EPS (W) 1,700 1,094 931 398 1,052 2,305 ROE (%) 14.7 7.7 5.7 2.3 5.8 11.7 P/E (x) 26.2 25.9 31.0 90.9 34.4 15.7 P/B (x) 3.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates November 12, 2018 YG Entertainment Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn , %, mn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18P 4Q18F 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 107 72 75 95 77 63 65 82 287 300 449 Products 27 32 24 50 20 26 30 35 110 134 197 Albums 18 22 16 17 13 16 17 19 65 79 108 Goods, etc. 8 9 8 34 6 9 13 17 45 54 88 Management 80 41 51 45 58 37 30 46 171 166 253 Concert 13 7 21 15 2 1 5 11 19 33 64 Advertising 9 12 10 8 7 8 7 5 27 27 27 Royalties 49 6 5 1 35 5 4 11 54 42 90 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 3 5 4 6 17 16 19 Commissions 4 11 9 11 8 18 9 11 45 40 42 Production 0 0 0 4 3 0 1 3 8 8 10 Gross profit 33.0 24.6 20.8 22.3 20.5 21.7 21.5 23.9 88 100 148 Operating profit 14.8 4.3 1.5 4.6 2.3 1.4 2.6 6.0 12 25 54 OP margin (%) 13.9 6.0 2.0 4.8 3.0 2.3 4.4 7.3 4.3 8.4 12.1 Pretax profit 13.6 6.0 7.8 2.6 2.9 1.7 3.2 4.7 12 26 56 Net profit 6.0 4.7 5.3 -4.1 0.8 -0.4 1.1 3.3 5 18 39 Net margin (%) 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 1.0 -0.6 1.9 4.0 1.7 6.0 8.7 Net profit (controlling) 7.3 4.4 6.2 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 2.0 3.8 8.0 20.6 45.1 YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -27.7 -13.2 -13.3 -14.6 -18.1 4.7 49.6 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 91.9 -26.3 -18.6 24.5 -30.1 -16.7 21.1 47.0 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 2.6 -28.0 -9.0 -41.8 2.5 -21.3 -2.6 51.7 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -37.8 -11.8 3.4 7.3 -13.0 14.6 47.3 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -84.4 -67.2 77.8 30.0 -51.1 103.6 116.7 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR -87.0 TTR -78.8 TTB -59.7 272.4 119.1 Key assumption Ticket sales volume in Japan 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.2 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1. 24-month forward P/E band (W) 62x 45x 70,000 30x 50,000 18x 30,000 10,000 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 November 12, 2018 YG Entertainment Figure 2. Japanese concert attendance to exceed previous highs in 2020 (mn persons) 2.8 YG Family BLACKPINK iKON WINNER 2.4 Epik High 2NE1 2.0 PSY Big Bang 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. YG Entertainment’s YouTube-related net revenue growing rapidly on simultaneous growth in prices and volume (Wbn) 15 YouTube (Google) net revenue 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 3 3 0 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F Note: All figures are Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates. Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. Quarterly YouTube view count by company (mn views) View count forecasts 1,500 SM (SMTOWN) JYP (jypentertainment + TWICE) 1,200 YG (YG ENTERTAINMENT + BLACKPINK + iKON + WINNER) Big Hit (ibighit + BANGTANTV) 900 600 300 0 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18F 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 1Q20F 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 November 12, 2018 YG Entertainment Figure 5.
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