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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Turning Negatives Into Positives

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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Turning Negatives Into Positives YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Turning negatives into positives 2Q18 review: Still in the black Entertainment For 2Q18, YG Entertainment reported consolidated revenue of W62.7bn (-13.2% YoY) and operating profit of W1.4bn (-67.6% YoY), remaining in the black despite worries over a possible Results Comment loss. In entertainment content production, losses sequentially declined, and consolidated August 13, 2018 subsidiary YG Plus turned a profit (albeit a small one) for the first time in 14 quarters. Core business results were weak in 2Q18, as was expected given that it was the first quarter of Big Bang’s absence. Notably, concert revenue recognized only proceeds from small-scale concerts in Korea and royalties from performer Daesung’s solo small-venue tour in Japan. (Upgrade) Buy The entertainment content production business (“The Icon TV”) remained in the red, but the extent of losses declined to W2.3bn in 2Q18 (vs. -W4bn in 4Q17 and -W3.8bn in 1Q18) . Target Price (12M, W) 43,000 Meanwhile, earnings at YG Plus improved thanks to: 1) the joint music business with NAVER (035420 KS/Buy/TP: W1,000,000/CP: W771,000; e.g., music service through VIBE); and 2) Share Price (08/10/18, W) 35,000 fixed-cost reductions for the cosmetics brand Moonshot (reducing its domestic footprint from three stores to one). Expected Return 23% Turning negatives into positives There are several reasons for the poor performance of YG Entertainment’s shares from OP (18F, Wbn) 8 2016 to 1H18. 1) For an extended period, there was low visibility on the debut/comeback Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 12 and concert schedules of the new generation of artists (iKON, BLACKPINK, and WINNER). 2) In addition, the company’s diversification into the dining, fashion, and cosmetics businesses EPS Growth (18F, %) -63.0 led to a higher cost burden. 3) Finally, the void left by Big Bang—YG Entertainment’s biggest Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 10.2 earnings driver—added to concerns. P/E (18F, x) 101.7 Market P/E (18F, x) 9.0 However, recent developments make us believe the negatives are turning into KOSDAQ 784.81 positives, and we believe the more favorable atmosphere will persist for over a year. 1) Visible growth in next-generation lineup: Korean artists, especially those signed by YG Market Cap (Wbn) 636 Entertainment, are making fast advances in Japan. It has taken two years less for iKON and Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 BLACKPINK to land dome concerts in Japan compared to previous dom estic groups (which Free Float (%) 62.7 usually held Japan dome concerts four to five years after their debuts). In addition, iKON, Foreign Ownership (%) 15.0 BLACKPINK, and WINNER, which are less than five years old, have relatively low profit- Beta (12M) 0.59 sharing ratios. As such, the rapid growth of these groups prior to their contract renewals 52-Week Low 24,850 should prove favorable to profitability, at least for the next three years. With global tours 52-Week High 41,750 kicking off from August, we expect the fan bases of these three groups to continue to grow. (%) 1M 6M 12M 2) Improvement in new businesses: The cosmetics business has reduced losses by scaling Absolute -10.5 22.8 25.4 back on domestic operations. For the content production business, cumulative losses Relative -7.2 31.8 2.3 amounted to W10bn from 4Q17 to 2Q18, but the extent of losses has likewise declined. Going forward, the content busines s is likely to favor new platforms that guarantee a fixed 150 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ margin, such as Netflix [NFLX US/CP: US$345.87], over less profitable conventional 130 channels. 110 3) Big Bang’s solid fan base: Big Bang garnered the second-highest concert attendance in Japan in 2017 (after Sandaime J Soul Brothers). After completing military service, Big Bang is 90 likely to maintain its ticket-selling power, as was the case with TVXQ and Super Junior in 2H17. 70 8.17 12.17 4.18 8.18 Maintain TP of W43,000 and upgrade to Buy We maintain our target price of W43,000 on YG Entertainment , but upgrade our rating Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. to Buy (from Trading Buy) in light of the stock’s increased upside potential. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 156 193 322 350 269 290 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 22 32 24 8 29 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 14.1 11.4 9.9 6.9 3.0 10.0 NP (Wbn) 19 28 19 18 7 25 EPS (W) 1,290 1,700 1,094 931 344 1,271 ROE (%) 13.4 14.7 7.7 5.7 2.0 7.0 P/E (x) 34.3 26.2 25.9 31.0 101.7 27.5 P/B (x) 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.8 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates August 13, 2018 YG Entertainment 3Q18 preview: New artists embarking on Asia and Japan tours iKON plans to tour Asia beginning on August 18 th following their new album release. The tour will include 13 performances in Japan (including two dome concerts; total attendance of 200,000) and stops in eight cities outside of Japan. BLACKPINK is launching its Japan tour next week. Not only is the size of the tour bigger than expected (seven performances; 80,000 attendees), but the group also confirmed a Kyocera Dome (Osaka) performance later this year, just 15 months after its debut in Japan. WINNER is embarking on an Asia tour on August 19 th , visiting at least eight cities. The group is also set to release a new album this summer. Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 107 72 75 95 77 63 58 71 350 269 290 Products 27 32 24 50 20 26 20 22 133 88 91 Albums 5 7 4 2 2 3 4 3 18 13 13 Digital content 13 16 12 14 11 13 12 11 55 47 49 Goods, etc. 8 9 8 34 6 9 5 7 59 28 28 Management 80 41 51 45 58 37 38 49 217 182 199 Concerts 13 7 21 15 2 1 4 9 56 16 30 Advertising 9 12 10 8 7 8 7 5 40 27 27 Royalties 49 6 5 1 35 5 5 12 62 56 49 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 3 5 7 5 20 20 23 Commissions 4 11 9 11 8 18 14 16 35 55 61 Production 0 0 0 4 3 0 3 3 4 9 10 Gross profit 33 25 21 22 20 22 18 23 101 84 105 Operating profit 15 4 1 5 2 1 0 5 25 8 29 OP margin (%) 13.9 6.0 2.0 4.8 3.0 2.2 -0.7 7.2 7.2 3.2 10.0 Pretax profit 14 6 8 3 3 2 1 4 30 10 30 Net profit 6 5 5 -4 1 0 1 3 12 4 21 Net margin (%) 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 1.0 -0.6 1.7 3.8 3.4 1.5 7.1 Net profit (controlling) 7 4 6 0 2 0 1 3 17.8 6.7 24.8 YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -27.7 -13.2 -22.8 -25.6 8.7 -23.1 7.8 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 91.9 -26.3 -18.6 -16.0 -56.3 46.4 -34.0 4.0 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 2.6 -28.0 -9.0 -26.0 8.5 -6.0 -16.4 9.6 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -37.8 -11.9 -11.7 4.8 6.0 -16.7 25.4 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -84.4 -67.6 TTR 12.3 -21.0 -66.4 241.1 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR -87.0 TTR -80.9 TTB -15.5 -65.4 402.5 Key assumption Ticket sales volume in Japan 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.9 0.5 1.0 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %, %p) Previous Revised Change Note 18F 19F 18F 19F 18F 19F Revenue 267 282 269 290 1.0 2.9 Reflected updated concert/event schedule Operating profit 11 28 8 29 -22.2 3.4 Net profit 11 26 7 25 -41.1 -3.3 OP margin 4.1 9.9 3.2 10.0 -0.9 0.1 Net margin 4.3 9.1 2.5 8.6 -1.8 -0.5 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; net profit is attributable to controlling interests. Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 13, 2018 YG Entertainment Figure 1. Lower average age at debut is positive for profitability (%) 72 COGS ratio 70 68 66 64 62 60 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2.
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