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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) Potential of New Artists and Businesses Has Yet to Be Proven

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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) Potential of New Artists and Businesses Has Yet to Be Proven YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) Potential of new artists and businesses has yet to be proven Entertainment 2Q revenue up 34.2% YoY, operating profit up 36.5% YoY YG Entertainment’s 2Q revenue and operating profit grew 34.2% and 36.5% YoY to Results Comment W30.6bn and W5.5bn, respectively. Net profit climbed 56.5% YoY. Overall, 2Q results August 30, 2013 met expectations thanks to revenue recognition from Psy’s domestic concerts and G- Dragon’s concerts outside of Japan. In 3Q, we project YG Entertainment to deliver record-high earnings, backed by G-Dragon’s (Maintain) Buy Japan dome tour (320,000 attendees based on maximum seating capacity), Daesung’s Japan concerts (70,000 attendees based on maximum seating capacity), and new album releases by Target Price (12M, W) 59,500 2NE1 and Seungri. We forecast 3Q operating profit of W8bn on revenue of W40bn. Share Price (08/29/13, W) 49,250 Boy band to debut via reality competition show; Big Bang set for 4Q dome tour YG Entertainment has not introduced a single new idol group following the debut of Expected Return 21% 2NE1 four years ago and Big Bang eight years ago. However, the entertainment firm plans to debut a new boy group through a reality program called WIN (set to premiere OP (13F, Wbn) 27 on August 23rd), which will feature eleven contestants competing in two teams. Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 29 We revise down our 2013F and 2014F net profit by 7.2% and 12.3%, respectively. EPS Growth (13F, %) 28.6 Although revenue from Psy’s overseas concerts has not yet been reflected, we believe Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 22.4 2013 overseas concert revenue has been largely in line with expectations. We note that P/E (13F, x) 20.7 G-Dragon’s concerts have been attracting much larger-than-expected crowds. Market P/E (13F, x) 9.6 On the other hand, we expect a decline in overseas royalties from Japanese-language KOSDAQ 520.37 albums (released through local agents). We note that royalties from Japanese albums Market Cap (Wbn) 508 and digital music are one of the company’s most profitable sources of revenue. Shares Outstanding (mn) 10 Free Float (%) 58.2 Looking forward into 2014, we expect: 1) Chinese concerts to begin generating meaningful Foreign Ownership (%) 3.2 revenue, 2) a clearer picture of Psy’s overseas concert schedule to emerge, and 3) the firm’s Beta (12M) 0.93 pop group lineup to expand with the addition of a new girl group. However, we believe the 52-Week Low (W) 45,350 contribution of the company’s most profitable sources of income (such as overseas albums 52-Week High (W) 108,700 and domestic digital music) will be smaller than expected. (%) 1M 6M 12M Lower TP to W59,500; Potential of new artists or Psy effect yet to be confirmed Absolute -12.1 -26.4 -19.5 We maintain Buy on YG Entertainment, but slash our target price by 30% to W59,500 Relative -12.5 -20.5 -18.4 (from W85,000), in light of downward adjustments to our 2013F and 2014F EPS. We Share price also believe the current stock price reflects a growth premium relative to other 220 KOSDAQ entertainment or media players, but we have yet to see any concrete evidence that 170 validates the potential of new artists or businesses. 120 YG Entertainment has initiated a number of new businesses: including 1): the launch of 70 YG Channel on China’s largest online video website Youku, together with Samsung 8/12 12/12 4/13 8/13 Electronics, 2) the opening of a hologram concert hall at Everland, and 3) a W5bn investment in Red Rover, a 3D animation company. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 58 78 107 137 165 185 Internet/Game/Entertainment OP (Wbn) 14 18 22 27 32 35 Chang-kwean Kim OP Margin (%) 23.6 22.7 20.2 19.8 19.6 18.7 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 10 13 19 25 29 31 [email protected] EPS (W) 1,289 1,663 1,849 2,378 2,838 3,045 ROE (%) 61.4 26.5 21.6 22.7 22.4 20.1 P/E (x) 0.0 22.1 33.3 20.7 17.4 16.2 P/B (x) 0.0 5.2 7.1 4.7 3.8 3.2 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 30, 2013 YG Entertainment Table 1. Annual earnings (Wbn, %) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F Revenue 11.5 18.5 35.7 44.8 78.1 106.6 137.3 CD 2.0 5.9 6.5 7.3 9.6 11.9 13.5 Digital 3.4 3.3 6.8 5.8 7.3 8.8 12.1 Overseas 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 31.8 53.4 77.7 Management 4.2 5.0 17.2 21.0 25.5 25.3 28.3 Other 1.8 4.4 5.2 6.0 3.9 7.1 5.7 Revenue breakdown CD 17.8 31.6 18.2 16.4 12.3 11.2 9.8 Digital 29.9 17.7 19.0 13.0 9.3 8.3 8.8 Overseas 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 40.8 50.2 56.6 Management 36.9 26.9 48.3 47.0 32.6 23.8 20.6 Other 15.4 23.8 14.5 13.4 5.0 6.7 4.1 Operating profit 0.6 1.4 7.4 13.6 17.8 21.5 27.2 OP margin 5.2 7.5 20.7 30.4 22.7 20.1 19.8 Net profit 0.5 1.6 4.2 9.6 12.9 18.8 24.5 Net margin 4.4 8.6 11.7 21.5 16.6 17.6 17.9 YoY Revenue 61.3 92.7 25.4 74.5 36.4 28.8 CD 186.4 10.9 12.9 30.7 24.2 13.0 Digital -4.3 106.1 -14.3 25.9 20.5 37.5 Overseas 586.0 67.8 45.5 Management 17.4 246.5 22.0 21.3 -0.7 11.7 Other 149.2 17.7 15.6 -35.0 82.0 -20.2 Operating profit 132.2 433.6 83.9 30.7 20.9 26.9 Net profit 217.5 159.9 131.4 34.3 45.0 30.6 Notes: Figures are based on K-GAAP through 2010; 2011- figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised % chg. 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F Revenue 129 165 137 165 6.4 -0.1 Operating profit 29 38 27 32 -5.9 -14.3 Pretax profit 35 44 33 39 -5.2 -12.5 Net profit 26 33 25 29 -7.2 -12.3 EPS (W) 2,559 3,237 2,378 2,838 -7.1 -12.3 OP margin 22.4 22.8 19.8 19.6 -2.6 -3.3 Net margin 20.5 20.2 17.8 17.8 -2.6 -2.5 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 August 30, 2013 YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ/Buy/TP: W59,500) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F12/15F (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue 107 137 165185 Current Assets 92 111 136 161 Cost of Sales 65 81 96 106 Cash and Cash Equivalents 53 56 75 96 Gross Profit 42 56 69 79 AR & Other Receivables 13 17 20 23 SG&A Expenses 21 29 37 45 Inventories 4 6 7 7 Operating Profit (Adj) 22 27 32 35 Other Current Assets 4 5 6 7 Operating Profit 22 27 32 35 Non-Current Assets 26 36 43 50 Non-Operating Profit 3 6 6 7 Investments in Associates 3 9 15 21 Net Financial Income -2 -2 -2 -3 Property, Plant and Equipment 11 11 10 10 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 4 6 6 6 Intangible Assets 8 10 10 11 Pretax Profit 25 33 39 41 Total Assets 118 146 179 211 Income Tax 6 9 9 10 Current Liabilities 20 26 31 35 Profit from Continuing Operations 19 25 29 31 AP & Other Payables 12 15 18 20 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 19 25 29 31 Other Current Liabilities 8 10 13 14 Controlling Interests 19 25 29 31 Non-Current Liabilities 0 2 4 6 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Total Comprehensive Profit 18 24 29 31 Other Non-Current Liabilities 0 2 4 6 Controlling Interests 18 24 29 31 Total Liabilities 20 28 35 41 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Controlling Interests 97 119 144 170 EBITDA 24 30 3639 Capital Stock 5 5 5 5 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 4 16 23 25 Capital Surplus 47 47 47 47 EBITDA Margin (%) 22.8 22.2 22.0 21.0 Retained Earnings 45 66 91 118 Operating Profit Margin (%) 20.2 19.8 19.6 18.7 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Profit Margin (%) 17.6 17.9 17.8 17.0 Stockholders' Equity 97 119 144 170 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F12/15F 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Cash Flows from Op Activities 12 16 26 28 P/E (x) 33.3 20.7 17.4 16.2 Net Profit 25 27 29 31 P/CF (x) 28.9 18.3 15.3 14.3 Non-Cash Income and Expense 1 4 7 7 P/B (x) 7.1 4.7 3.8 3.2 Depreciation 1 1 1 1 EV/EBITDA (x) 23.2 14.0 11.2 9.9 Amortization 2 3 3 4 EPS (W) 1,849 2,378 2,838 3,045 Others -4 0 0 0 CFPS (W) 2,130 2,689 3,224 3,448 Chg in Working Capital -8 -5 -2 -1 BPS (W) 8,675 10,572 12,906 15,371 Chg in AR & Other Receivables -9 -4 -3 -2 DPS (W) 300 400 500 600 Chg in Inventories -2 -1 -1 -1 Payout ratio (%) 16.5 16.8 17.6 19.7 Chg in AP & Other Payables 6 1 3 2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 Income Tax Paid -6 -9 -9 -10 Revenue Growth (%) 36.4 28.8 20.2 12.0 Cash Flows from Inv Activities 3 -14 -2 -1 EBITDA Growth (%) 20.1 25.2 19.3 6.8 Chg in PP&E -6 -1 0 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 20.9 26.9 18.7 7.1 Chg in Intangible Assets -4 -4 -4 -4 EPS Growth (%) 11.2 28.6 19.4 7.3 Chg in Financial Assets 9 -10 0 0 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 11.8 9.6 9.3 9.0 Others 4 2 23 Inventory Turnover (x) Cash Flows from Fin Activities 1 0 -4 -5 Accounts Payable Turnover (x) 89.6 62.0 60.1 58.2 Chg in Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 ROA (%) 18.1 18.6 18.0 16.1 Chg in Equity 1 0 0 0 ROE (%) 21.6 22.7 22.4 20.1 Dividends Paid 0 -3 -4 -5 ROIC (%) 94.3 80.6 85.7 87.8 Others 0 0 0 0 Liability to Equity Ratio (%) 20.6 23.1 24.3 24.1 Increase (Decrease) in Cash 16 3 20 21 Current Ratio (%) 462.3 432.5 441.3 467.0 Beginning Balance 37 53 56 75 Net Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Ending Balance 53 56 75 96 Interest Coverage Ratio (x) Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 August 30, 2013 YG Entertainment APPENDIX 1 Important Disclosures & Disclaimers Disclosures (W) YG Entertainment As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest 120,000 with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
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