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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) a Busier Schedule Ahead for 2014

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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) a Busier Schedule Ahead for 2014 YG Entertainment (122870 KQ) A busier schedule ahead for 2014 Entertainment Disappointing 3Q results on absence of “Psy” effect YG Entertainment’s 3Q consolidated revenue and operating profit came in at W29.7bn (- Results Comment 1% YoY) and W6.3bn (-14% YoY; OP margin of 21.5%), respectively. Key events reflected December 2, 2013 in 3Q included the September release of G-Dragon’s second full-length album “Coup D’Etat” (around 200,000 copies sold), the artist’s Japanese dome tour in 2Q (total attendance of 220,000) and two domestic concerts, and Daesung’s Japanese tour (total (Maintain) Buy attendance of 100,000). The company’s ex-Japan concert revenue fell sharply, as G-Dragon’s overseas concerts Target Price (12M, W) 57,000 were skewed towards Japan. Royalty income from Psy’s overseas concerts which we originally anticipated earlier this year did not come to pass. In 3Q, expenses slightly Share Price (11/29/13, W) 49,600 increased due to the company’s new business initiatives, which have yet to realize any concrete revenue. Expected Return 15% Weakness to extend into 4Q13, but look for strong earnings momentum in 1Q14 OP (13F, Wbn) 24 We project 4Q operating profit to remain flat QoQ, as only two major events – Psy’s Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 26 domestic concerts and the release of 2NE1’s mini album – are due to be reflected in the quarter. EPS Growth (13F, %) 11.1 Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 13.5 However, we expect earnings to sharply improve in 1Q14, as the company should P/E (13F, x) 24.2 recognize revenue for Big Bang’s Japanese dome tour, which began in November and is Market P/E (13F, x) 11.4 set to last through January 2014 (five cities with a target audience of 770k), and the KOSDAQ 517.06 group’s Seoul concert slated for January 2014. Market Cap (Wbn) 512 In addition, Big Bang is set to hold ex-Japan concerts in 2014, while 2NE1 (which had no Shares Outstanding (mn) 10 official overseas concerts in 2013) is expected to perform in Korea, Japan and Southeast Free Float (%) 58.2 Asia from March 2014. After a long hiatus following the debut of 2NE1 in 2009, the Foreign Ownership (%) 2.5 company is likely to introduce new artists in 2014. The duo Akdong Musician and the boy Beta (12M) 1.14 group WINNER, both of which have already become household names through reality 52-Week Low (W) 45,350 competition programs, are set to release new albums in the coming year. 52-Week High (W) 90,000 Lower TP to W57,000 on downward revision of 2013F EPS (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute -4.6 -24.3 -14.2 We maintain our Buy rating, but lower target price to W57,000. We lowered our 2013F Relative -4.3 -26.5 -19.9 EPS by 13.6% in light of the sluggish 3Q results and the continued weakness expected in 4Q. Our downward revision to 2014F EPS is more moderate, as we see better earnings Share price 160 KOSDAQ next year. Upbeat expectations on artist lineup expansions and new businesses 140 (especially in China) should materialize in 2014. 120 100 80 60 11/12 3/13 7/13 11/13 Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 58 78 107 125 151 178 Internet/Game/Entertainment OP (Wbn) 14 18 22 24 31 37 Chang-kwean Kim OP Margin (%) 23.6 22.7 20.2 19.4 20.8 20.6 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 10 13 19 21 29 33 [email protected] EPS (W) 1,289 1,663 1,849 2,053 2,758 3,182 ROE (%) 61.4 26.5 21.6 19.9 22.4 21.5 P/E (x) 0.0 22.1 33.3 24.2 18.0 15.6 P/B (x) 0.0 5.2 7.1 4.8 4.0 3.3 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. December 2, 2013 YG Entertainment Table 1. YG Entertainment’s annual earnings (Wbn, %) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F Revenue 11 19 36 45 78 107 125 CD 2.0 5.9 6.5 8.1 11.9 13.4 15.4 Digital 3.4 3.3 6.8 5.8 8.5 15.3 19.0 Other 0.8 1.2 3.1 3.4 6.8 6.3 4.9 Concert 2.0 1.5 4.9 6.4 17.4 24.2 22.1 Product endorsements 2.0 3.2 6.9 10.5 11.9 11.9 13.2 Royalties 0.2 0.3 3.4 4.6 7.4 22.6 36.6 Broadcast appearances 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 6.8 6.5 7.0 Commissions 0.9 2.8 1.7 3.0 7.4 6.3 7.1 Goods 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 % of revenue CD 17.8 31.6 18.2 18.1 15.2 12.6 12.3 Digital 29.9 17.7 19.0 13.0 10.9 14.3 15.2 Other 7.1 6.6 8.7 7.5 8.7 5.9 3.9 Concert 17.4 7.9 13.8 14.3 22.3 22.8 17.6 Product endorsements 17.4 17.2 19.4 23.4 15.3 11.2 10.5 Royalties 2.1 1.8 9.5 10.3 9.4 21.2 29.2 Broadcast appearances 0.0 0.0 5.6 6.6 8.8 6.1 5.6 Commissions 8.3 15.2 4.7 6.7 9.5 5.9 5.7 Goods 0.0 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 0.6 1.4 7.4 13.6 17.8 21.5 24.3 OP margin 5.2 7.5 20.7 30.4 22.8 20.2 19.4 Net profit 0.5 1.6 4.2 9.6 12.9 18.8 21.2 NP margin 4.4 8.6 11.7 21.4 16.5 17.6 16.9 YoY Revenue 61.3 92.7 25.4 74.5 36.4 17.5 CD 186.4 10.9 24.8 46.4 13.2 14.3 Digital -4.3 106.1 -14.3 46.6 79.5 24.6 Other 49.3 154.4 8.3 101.7 -7.9 -22.1 Concert -27.2 237.0 29.9 173.1 39.2 -9.1 Product endorsements 60.2 117.2 51.3 13.7 0.0 10.4 Royalties 33.8 943.3 36.7 58.9 207.6 61.8 Broadcast appearances - - 47.1 132.0 -4.7 7.2 Commissions 197.3 -40.5 79.4 145.4 -15.2 12.9 Goods - 10.5 -85.5 -100.0 - - Notes: Figures are based on K-GAAP through 2010; From 2011, figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised % chg. 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F 2013F 2014F Revenue 137 165 125 151 -8.8 -8.8 Operating profit 27 32 24 31 -10.7 -3.1 Pretax profit 33 39 29 38 -13.3 -2.8 Net profit 25 29 21 28 -13.5 -3.1 EPS(W) 2,378 2,838 2,053 2,758 -13.6 -2.8 OP margin 19.8 19.6 19.4 20.8 -0.4 1.2 Net margin 17.8 17.8 16.9 18.9 -0.9 1.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; Net profit refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 December 2, 2013 YG Entertainment Table 3. YG Entertainment’s quarterly revenue breakdown (Wbn, %) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Revenue 17.9 22.8 30.0 35.9 29.6 30.8 29.7 CD/DVD 2.97 3.79 6.13 4.88 2.42 1.80 5.43 Digital 1.37 2.30 2.58 4.68 2.80 2.27 2.65 Goods 1.99 1.03 1.65 1.59 1.69 1.77 1.29 Subtotal 6.33 7.12 10.36 11.15 6.91 5.83 9.38 Concert 3.16 0.10 7.83 13.26 5.20 12.42 1.73 Endorsement 3.19 3.38 2.20 3.16 2.81 3.20 3.68 Royalties 2.21 7.66 7.01 5.74 11.33 6.27 11.43 Commission 1.98 2.27 0.98 1.04 0.93 1.46 1.94 Copyright 1.01 2.38 1.59 1.56 2.45 1.58 1.53 % of revenue Revenue 16.6 16.6 20.5 13.6 8.2 5.8 18.3 CD/DVD 7.6 10.1 8.6 13.0 9.5 7.4 8.9 Digital 11.2 4.5 5.5 4.4 5.7 5.7 4.3 Goods 35.4 31.2 34.6 31.0 23.3 18.9 31.6 Subtotal 17.7 0.4 26.1 36.9 17.5 40.4 5.8 Concert 17.8 14.8 7.3 8.8 9.5 10.4 12.4 Endorsement 12.4 33.6 23.4 16.0 38.2 20.4 38.5 Royalties 11.1 10.0 3.3 2.9 3.1 4.7 6.5 Commission 5.6 10.4 5.3 4.3 8.3 5.1 5.2 Operating profit 3.6 4.1 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.5 6.4 OP margin 19.9 18.0 24.7 17.8 21.2 17.9 21.4 Net profit 3.0 3.5 5.8 6.5 4.2 5.5 3.9 NP margin 16.9 15.3 19.3 18.0 14.0 17.8 13.3 Notes: K-IFRS non-consolidated basis Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 December 2, 2013 YG Entertainment YG Entertainment (122870 KQ/Buy/TP: W57,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F12/15F (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue 107 125 151178 Current Assets 92 108 132 159 Cost of Sales 65 74 88 101 Cash and Cash Equivalents 53 55 74 96 Gross Profit 42 51 63 76 AR & Other Receivables 13 15 19 22 SG&A Expenses 21 27 32 40 Inventories 4 5 6 7 Operating Profit (Adj) 22 24 31 37 Other Current Assets 4 5 6 7 Operating Profit 22 24 31 37 Non-Current Assets 26 35 42 49 Non-Operating Profit 3 4 6 7 Investments in Associates 3 9 15 21 Net Financial Income -2 -2 -2 -3 Property, Plant and Equipment 11 11 10 10 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 4 6 6 6 Intangible Assets 8 10 10 11 Pretax Profit 25 29 38 43 Total Assets 118 142 173 208 Income Tax 6 8 9 11 Current Liabilities 20 23 28 33 Profit from Continuing Operations 19 21 28 33 AP & Other Payables 12 14 17 20 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 19 21 28 33 Other Current Liabilities 8 10 11 14 Controlling Interests 19 21 29 33 Non-Current Liabilities 0 3 6 8 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 0 0 0 0 Total Comprehensive Profit 18 21 28 33 Other Non-Current Liabilities 0 3 6 8 Controlling Interests 18 21 28 33 Total Liabilities 20 27 34 41 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Controlling Interests 97 115 139 167 EBITDA 24 28 3541 Capital Stock 5 5 5 5 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 4 15 22 26 Capital Surplus 47 47 47 47 EBITDA Margin (%) 22.8 22.0 23.4 22.9 Retained Earnings 45 63 87 115 Operating Profit Margin (%) 20.2 19.4 20.8 20.6 Non-Controlling Interests 0 0 0 0 Net Profit Margin (%) 17.6 16.9 18.9 18.5 Stockholders' Equity 97 116 140 167 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/12 12/13F 12/14F12/15F 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Cash Flows from Op Activities 12 16 25 29 P/E (x) 33.3 24.2 18.0 15.6 Net Profit 25 23 28 33 P/CF (x) 28.9 21.0 15.8 13.8 Non-Cash Income and Expense 1 4 7 8 P/B (x) 7.1 4.8 4.0 3.3 Depreciation 1 1 1 1 EV/EBITDA (x) 23.2 15.6 11.7 9.6 Amortization 2 3 3 4 EPS (W) 1,849 2,053 2,758 3,182 Others -4 -2 0 0 CFPS (W) 2,130 2,364 3,145
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