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Media / Entertainment Content Is King 2018 Outlook | Media / Entertainment Content is king Jeong-yeob Park +822-3774-1652 [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] Content is king 3 I. Broadcast content: Opening of global age 4 II. TV/digital ads: Focus on those with edge in digital ads 5 III. Film: Stabilizing at home and expanding overseas 6 IV. Entertainment agencies: New businesses create synergies with main businesses 7 V. Investment strategy and valuation VI. Top Picks & Stocks To Watch 8 (Top Picks) CJ E&M, SM Entertainment (Stocks To Watch) J Contentree, CJ CGV, YG Entertainment [Conclusion] Stock ratings and target prices 9 [Summary] Content is king Expansion of channels for broadcast content - New media: Regional expansion of global OTT services; Broadcast increasing likelihood of sales to China Companies that generate revenue from content - Conventional media: General programming channels and direct content sales: cable TV have increased time slots for dramas sales CJ E&M, J Contentree, IHQ, NEW Shift in content revenue growth driver (advertisement direct sales) Evolving into content production companies - Continued efforts to secure production staff (PDs, writers, etc.) Companies that have production staff and platform: Entertainment - Cross-shareholding investments between platform CJ E&M, YG Entertainment, SM Entertainment, SM C&C, agencies companies and entertainment agencies IHQ Content produced for web/broadcast/new platforms to continue to expand Target marketing is gaining in importance Companies that display ad targeting - TV ads: Targeting by channel TV ads and high digital market share: - Digital ads: Both the digital media’s share Digital ads CJ E&M, J Contentree in user time and digital ad rates are rising Stabilization of domestic business + @ Companies that have domestic theater sites Film - Price hikes, stable theater attendance, and new growth drivers: platform and higher labor costs likely - Favorable competitive environment CJ CGV, J Contentree due to decrease in new site openings Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2017 Outlook [Media / Entertainment] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Golden age of media content OTT services have • OTT services have diversified content distribution channels, making conventional broadcasting/production diversified content companies only one of the content distribution options • Current: Production ⇒ Programming ⇒ Broadcasting ⇒ Consumption (mostly on TVs) distribution channels • Going forward: Reflecting diverse production/consumption patters, the production of content optimized for digital platform will likely increase • Content revenue growth driver has shifted from advertising to direct sales OTT services have dramatically changed conventional media value chain Over-the-top (OTT) services OTT services offer content to all devices via internet Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2017 Outlook [Media / Entertainment] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Golden age of media content OTT services have • The OTT market is growing rapidly, as the digital consumption of video content have partially replaced real-time diversified content TV watching and theater attendance • Content format optimization regarding business model of global OTT players is well underway distribution channels • Digital ads: Short clip/real-time/web-only content (NAVER TV, Kakao TV, YouTube) • Direct ad sales: Premium content offered on TV and theaters (Netflix, Amazon Prime) Digital consumption of video content is increasing OTT market is growing rapidly (EB) (US$bn) 80 Other 100 PC internet video ads CAGR = 25.3% File sharing Mobile video ads Video 70 On-demand content Music 80 Subscription content 60 Web surfing SNS Software downloads 50 60 40 40 30 CAGR = 46.1% 20 20 10 0 0 2017 2022F 2012 2017F 2021F Source: Ericsson, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: PwC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| 2017 Outlook [Media / Entertainment] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Golden age of media content OTTs to facilitate content • The OTT market has begun to stage strong growth as digital devices are replacing - albeit partially - TVs and distribution theaters as a means of consuming video content • Business models and content formats for various OTT services have become increasingly sophisticated: Digital ads: short clips, real-time/web-only content, etc. NAVER TV, Kakao TV, YouTube, etc. Direct ad sales: TV/movie content, premium content, etc. Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc. Global OTT players by revenue model and content format CJ E&M: Growth in content sales vs. ad revenue/licensing fees (%) 25 2013-2017F CAGR 20 15 10 5 0 Ad revenue/Licensing fees Content sales Showbox: Growth in theater revenue vs. ancillary revenue (%) 30 2012-2016 CAGR 20 10 0 Theater revenue Ancillary revenue Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| 2017 Outlook [Media / Entertainment] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Golden age of media content OTT growth to continue • Leading OTT players: Focusing on market expansion; in the US, the downtrend in cable TV subscribers and growth in new OTT subscribers are both slowing Netflix: Cumulative overseas subscribers outnumbered US subscribers in 3Q17 Amazon: Subscriber growth is strong in Canada, India, Japan, and Europe • Large late-comers: Strengthening forays into the market; competition between content producers and platforms is also intensifying Disney: Pulled its content from Netflix and decided to launch its own platform in 2019 Apple: Expanding its content pool based on the iTunes platform; acquiring competitive overseas content producers Competition to secure quality content to intensify globally Competition Competition for for fees advertisers (subscriptions) (ratings) Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7| 2017 Outlook [Media / Entertainment] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Golden age of media content 1) Global OTTs • Competition between platforms should lead to an increase in content investments • Platforms are expected to pursue two-track strategies: 1) outsourcing of local content to attract local subscribers; and 2) integration of production processes global distribution after producing high-budget content • Since early-2017, Korean drama sales have increased in both volume and price • Global OTTs’ preference for Korean content in sourcing content that targets Asia will likely remain strong for a while Content sales to Netflix could exceed Korea’s total TV content Growth in Netflix’s content investments continues exports (US$mn) (US$bn) 18.3% YoY 8 700 Netflix's content investments 7.0 6.0 6 4.6 5.0 600 4 3.2 2.4 500 1.8 2 0.9 0.1 0.2 400 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 300 Netflix’s external investments in Asia (2018 est.) Asian Variety 15% % of Asian investments Netflix’s external licensing budget 200 overseas investments/ /external investments overseas investments: (a)investments (b) 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% Drama 75% (a)*(b) 100 30% 40% 12% 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 40% 50% 20% 1 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 0 2005 2010 2014 2015 Breakdown Netflix's 45% 55% 25% 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 broadcastingbroadcastingbroadcastingbroadcasting by genre potential 50% 60% 30% 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 exports exports exports exports investments in Asia 60% 70% 42% 2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 Source: KOCCA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Netflix, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 8| 2017 Outlook [Media / Entertainment] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Golden age of media content 2) Resurgence of China • Copyright sales represent the biggest portion of Korea’s total content exports; renewed expectations for content exports to China as attractive content • Despite restrictions on Korean content in China following the THAAD deployment, we are upbeat on: 1) the continued market improvement in the competitiveness of Korean content; and 2) the increase in pricing power over other distribution channels (e.g., OTTs) • The proliferation of global OTT services has heightened the possibility of a recovery in Korea’s China-bound content exports; more diversified pricing schemes (e.g., holdbacks) Cases of copyright sales to China Content exports by distribution channel Per-episode % of total (US$mn) Other (L) Programs (L) (%) Format sales (L) Time block (L) Titles price production Release date Producers 350 90 (W mn) costs Video/DVD sales (L) % of programs (R) Hwa & Dam The Heirs 0.2 Oct. 2013 280 Pictures 80 My love from the Star 0.4 Dec. 2013 HB Entertainment 210 70 Fated to Love You 1.2 July 2014 140 My Lovely Girl 2 Sept. 2014 60 70 Pinocchio 2.8 Nov. 2014 0 50 Hyde, Jekyll, Me 1 Jan. 2015 KPJ 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Chorokbaem The Producers 1.7 May 2015 Media Content exports by destination: Resumed growth in China-bound Descendants of the Sun 2.5 20% Feb. 2016 NEW Exports, strong upside in exports to Southeast Asia and North America Moon lovers: Scarlet Heart Other (L) US/Canada (L) 4 65% Aug. 2016 (US$mn) (%) Ryeo 300 Southeast Asia (L) China/Hong Kong (L) 40 Uncontrollably Fond 3 50% Sept. 2016 IHQ Japan (L) % of Southeast Asia (R) 250 35 Entourage 2.8 55% Nov. 2016 Studio Dragon 200 Hwarang: The Beginning 2.5 Dec. 2016 30 150 Saimdang, the History 2.7 Jan. 2017 25 100 Cases where proceeds from China-bound sales represent 20 over 50% of total production costs 50 The Legend of the Blue Sea +5 50% Nov. 2016 Studio Dragon 0 15 The Goblin
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