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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Tide Set to Turn

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YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Tide Set to Turn YG Entertainment (122870 KQ ) Tide set to turn Entertainment Raise TP to W43,000 Company Report We raise our target price on YG Entertainment to W43,000 . We acknowledge that the absence of Big Bang creates an unfavorable base for 2018-19 earnings, especially as July 23, 2018 the group was responsible for 84% of Japanese concert attendance over the past five years. However, we are encouraged by the faster-than-expected growth of the company’s new artists. To reflect this, we raised our target price by applying a P/E of 25x to the average of our earnings estimates for 2019 (increase in iKON/BLACKPINK concert attendees) and 2020 (550,000 attendees after Big Bang’s comeback). (Maintain) Trading Buy For months, the company has struggled with a number of headwinds. While top-line contraction looked certain, the timing of artist comebacks was not. Meanwhile, the new Target Price (12M, W) ▲ 43,000 broadcasting/OTT content business has done poorly financially. However, we think t he tide is about to turn. In addition to the growth of BLACKPINK, iKON, and WINNER, we Share Price (07/20/18, W) 37,150 now expect the broadcasting/OTT content business to also contribute to profits from September ( YG Future Strategy Office for Netflix [NFLX US/CP: US$361.05]). Expected Return 16% Expectations on concert demand amid a growing global fan base, a turnaround in subsidiaries, and the resumption of Chinese concerts could also materialize over time. Margins to improve faster than expected OP (18F, Wbn) 10 The fanbase of YG Entertainment’s next-generat ion artists is growing at an impressive Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 16 pace, as demonstrated by the early advances of the company’s newer artists into Japanese dome concerts. It has taken two years less for iKON and BLACKPINK to land EPS Growth (18F, %) -37.4 dome concerts compared to previous domestic groups (w hich usually held Japan dome Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 10.4 concerts four to five years after their debuts). P/E (18F, x) 63.7 iKON, BLACKPINK, and WINNER, which are entering their fourth, third, and fifth years, Market P/E (18F, x) 9.0 respectively, have much lower profit-sharing ratios than Big Bang (13 years). As such, KOSDAQ 791.61 the rapid growth of these groups prior to their contract renewals should prove favorable to profitability, at least for the next three years. With a busy schedule Market Cap (Wbn) 676 planned in 2H18, we expect the three groups to continue to see their fan bases grow. Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 th Free Float (%) 62.7 iKON plans to tour Asia beginning on August 18 following their new album release. Foreign Ownership (%) 14.5 The tour will include 13 performances in Japan (including two dome concerts; total attendees of 200,000) and stops in eight cities outside of Japan. Beta (12M) 0.60 52-Week Low 24,850 BLACKPINK is launching a tour i n Japan next week. Not only is the size of the tour 52-Week High 41,750 bigger than expected (seven performances; 80,000 attendees), but the group also confirmed a Kyocera dome tour later this year, just 15 months after its debut in Japan. (%) 1M 6M 12M WINNER is set to release a new a lbum this summer, which is likely to be followed by an Absolute 9.1 25.5 21.2 arena tour. Relative 15.8 39.5 3.6 2Q18 preview: Revenue contraction to lead to small loss 150 YG Entertainment KOSDAQ For 2Q18, we forecast YG Entertainment to report consolidated revenue of W59.7bn 130 (-17.4% YoY) and an operating loss of W0.2bn (turning to loss YoY). We believe revenue contraction led to a slight loss in the quarter. Being the first quarter of Big Bang’s 110 absence, the recognition of Japanese concert attendees was likely minimal. 90 We expect another loss from the new broadcasting content production business. While iKON TV (which aired in 2Q18) likely helped boost the group’s fan base, we think 70 7.17 11.17 3.18 7.18 margins on the series were disappointing. That said, we believe losses were smaller compared to the past two quarters (W4bn in 4Q17 and W3.8bn in 1Q18), during which the shows Mix Nine , BLACKPINK House , and Do the Right Thing were aired. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F Revenue (Wbn) 156 193 322 350 267 282 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 22 22 32 24 10 28 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 14.1 11.4 9.9 6.9 3.7 9.9 NP (Wbn) 19 28 19 18 11 26 EPS (W) 1,290 1,700 1,094 931 583 1,314 ROE (%) 13.4 14.7 7.7 5.7 3.3 7.1 P/E (x) 34.3 26.2 25.9 31.0 63.7 28.3 P/B (x) 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.9 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates July 23, 2018 YG Entertainment New artists rising to top levels more quickly than before Amid favorable concert market conditions, new Korean idol groups are rising to top levels (as represented by dome tours) at an accelerating pace, with the advance visible across both male and female groups. Looking at relatively recent cases, the first Japan dome tours took place in: 1) November 2015 for EXO (six performances; 43 months after its domestic debut and right after its Japanese debut); 2) October 2017 for BTS (two performances; 52 months after its domestic debut and 40 months after its Japanese debut); and 3) May 2017 for iKON (two performances; 19 months after its domestic debut and 16 months after its Japanese debut). More recently, BLACKPINK confirmed in July that it would hold its first dome concert (27 months after its domestic debut and 15 months after its Japanese debut) at the end of the year. Venue size per performance (Zepp/hall/arena/dome) is a key factor determining the scale and profitability of an entire tour. The closer an artist gets to doing dome tours, the larger the concert capacity and the lower the cost ratio—which is good for both revenue and profitability. In fact, dome tours are necessary for an artist to attract annual attendees of 500,000. The faster pace at which artists are reaching dome tour status is also positive for entertainment companies, as newer contracts yield better profitability Figure 1. Comparison of profitability by concert venue size and artist contract status (%) 25 Dome/stadium Arena/hall 20 15 10 5 0 Debut contract Renewed contract Source: Media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. Pace at which Korean artists are reaching dome tour status is accelerating No. of months between domestic debut and first dome concert 100 No. of months between Japanese debut and first dome concert 80 60 40 20 0 TVXQ Big Bang Kara Girls' Generation SHINee EXO BTS iKON BLACKPINK Source: Media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 July 23, 2018 YG Entertainment Table 1. Target price calculation (Wbn, x) Valuation - P/E 2019-20F Avg. Target market cap 779 Net profit attributable to controlling interests 31 Target P/E 25.0 Target price (W) 43,000 Upside potential (%) 15.7% Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18F 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 107 72 75 95 77 60 58 71 350 267 282 Products 27 32 24 28 19 22 20 23 110 85 94 Albums 5 7 4 2 2 3 3 3 17 12 13 Digital content 13 16 12 14 11 13 12 11 55 47 50 Goods, etc. 8 9 8 12 6 6 5 8 38 25 31 Management 80 41 51 64 58 38 38 48 236 182 188 Concerts 13 7 21 15 2 2 6 12 56 21 34 Advertising 9 12 10 8 7 12 10 8 40 37 37 Royalties 49 6 5 23 35 7 5 12 84 58 49 Appearance fees 5 4 5 6 3 7 7 5 20 22 23 Commissions 4 11 9 11 8 9 9 9 36 34 36 Production 0 0 0 4 3 2 3 3 4 10 10 Gross profit 33 25 21 22 20 19 20 26 101 85 103 Operating profit 15 4 1 5 2 0 1 7 25 11 28 OP margin (%) 13.9 6.0 2.0 5.0 3.0 -0.4 2.5 10.3 7.2 4.1 9.9 Pretax profit 14 6 8 3 3 1 3 6 30 14 31 Net profit 6 5 5 -4 1 1 2 4 12 8 21 Net margin (%) 5.6 6.6 7.1 -4.3 1.0 1.7 3.9 6.0 3.4 3.1 7.6 Net profit (controlling) 7 4 6 0 2 1 3 5 17.8 11.4 25.7 YoY Revenue 46.5 -6.5 -25.7 35.8 -27.7 -17.4 -22.6 -25.3 8.7 -23.8 5.8 Products 43.9 46.5 -0.9 6.7 -26.9 -31.0 -15.7 -16.9 21.8 -23.1 10.5 Management 47.4 -27.1 -33.6 44.2 -28.0 -6.8 -25.9 -24.4 1.9 -22.9 3.6 Gross profit 42.2 7.1 -27.5 10.6 -37.8 -23.0 -2.9 14.8 6.0 -15.4 21.4 Operating profit 56.3 -36.1 -87.8 30.0 -84.4 TTR -1.7 60.9 -21.0 -56.8 156.5 Net profit -6.8 -27.8 133.7 RR -87.0 -78.9 -56.9 TTB -15.5 -29.8 156.1 Key assumption Ticket sales volume in 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.9 0.5 1.0 Japan Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of concerts and includes our estimates.
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