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CPL Resources www.davy.ie Bloomberg: DAVY<GO> Research: +353 1 6148997 Institutional Equity Sales: +353 1 6792816 Davy Research March 21, 2012 Rating: OUTPERFORM Issued 30/06/09 Flash Note: Company update Joshua Goldman, PhD [email protected] / +353 1 6148997 CPL Resources Share Price Performance Price: 298c 350 300 Bottom of cycle established; 300 260 significant upside potential 250 220 200 180 Recent peer reports suggest that UK/Ireland recruitment is 150 140 stabilizing; Ireland showing some green shoots; continental Europe performing well 100 100 • The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Ireland 50 60 Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 shows that 7% of respondents expect an increase in headcount, CPL price (c) Rel to ISEQ overall index (rhs) the highest percentage since the Q4 2008 survey. Key financials (€m) • Recruitment peers have been reporting a consistent message that Year end Jun12E Jun13F Jun14F UK/Ireland is a tough environment (although most companies Group Turnover 292.3 310.9 335.8 have kept gross profits flattish), while continental Europe is EBITDA 8.9 9.7 10.5 performing well. PBT 8.9 9.5 10.4 EPS Basic 23.1 27.1 29.7 • The latest (Q4) QNH data show seasonally adjusted growth of EPS Diluted (Adj) 23.4 27.5 30.0 0.6% in employment and unemployment stabilizing at 14.6% Cash EPS (Diluted) 24.9 29.0 31.6 compared to Q3. Dividend 6.0 7.0 7.0 NBV 179.0 198.7 221.0 Potential for growth from recent strategic moves in Europe and in Valuation healthcare sector P/E 12.7 10.9 9.9 • This month, CPL extended its European footprint with the FCF Yld (pre div) (%) 2.8 7.4 8.8 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 2.3 2.3 acquisition of European Human Resources AB in the Scandinavian Price / Book 1.7 1.5 1.3 market (it now has ten offices outside Ireland). EV / EBITDA 7.1 6.1 5.0 • The company has geographically diversified and now generates Group Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A N/A c.33% of permanent fees from outside Ireland. Company data • CPL also continues to expand its footprint in the fragmented and Reuters/Bloomberg/Xetra DQ5.I/CPL ID/DQ5 high potential healthcare sector with the acquisition of PHC Sector Recruitment Management and Runway Personnel. Shares (m) 30.5 Daily No. Shares Traded (m) 0.082 Past low point of the cycle; operating leverage to kick in over the Free Float (%) 58.6 medium term; significant upside from these levels 52 Week High/Low 305/243.8 • At the current number of consultants, we estimate that mid-cycle Capital Structure the company could generate net income 50% higher than Mkt. Cap (€m) 91.0 Net Debt/(Cash) -32.2 FY2011 and 40% higher than FY2012E. Our estimated peak cycle Deferred consideration/debt- N/A net income is c.146% above FY2011 and 129% above FY2012E. related The company has paid over €10m to shareholders in the form of Pref Shares/Non Eq Min 0.0 • Minority interests N/A dividends and returned €20m in the form of a share buyback in E.V. (€m) 58.9 CY2011. • CPL trades at a discount to the sector with a forward Recent research and research resources calendarised P/E of 11.7x (sector 15.6x). Based on mid-cycle Recent research and financial data on CPL Resources earnings, the company trades at a P/E multiple of 7.9x. • We rate the company as an 'outperform' due to its strong balance sheet (net cash €21.5m), potential for continued returns, strong management team and operating leverage, which could see earnings more than double at the peak of the cycle. Our price target is €4.75. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. J&E Davy, trading as Davy is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Davy is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange and Euronext. For branches in the UK, Davy is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. All prices are as of close of previous trading day unless otherwise indicated. All authors are Research Analysts unless otherwise stated. For the attention of US clients of Davy Securities, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, J&E Davy. Flash Note: CPL Resources March 21, 2012 Introduction CPL is one of the leading recruitment companies in Ireland. There are early signs of stabilisation of the labour market in Ireland. The company has taken the opportunity to diversify its product offering by expanding in the home healthcare and continental European market. It is currently trading at a discount to the market and has not participated in the recent recruitment sector rally despite its recent share buyback (17.9% of share capital at the time), strong balance sheet and growth trajectory. We believe that current levels offer a good entry point. Recruitment sector trading update • The Davy recruitment sector index The Davy recruitment sector index is up 25.4% year-to-date (CPL is up 25.4% year-to-date due to the 15.7%) due to the relatively positive newsflow compared to market relatively positive newsflow expectations. Overall, recruitment companies are seeing a tough but compared to market expectations stabilizing UK/Irish market, while continental Europe is performing well. • In its Q4 trading update, Michael Page reported that EMEA Q4 gross profits were £60.9m, up 15.3% on Q4 2010, while the UK had gross profits of £30.9m, up 0.6% on Q4 2010. The financial services sector and public sector remained challenging. • Hays H1 results revealed that UK net fees were down 6%. The public sector was the main driver of this decrease with net fees down 18% like-for-like, but these have been sequentially stable since April 2011. • This is the first quarterly increase Although historic, the Q4 2011 quarterly national household survey since Q4 2007 (QNHS) shows a stabilizing employment environment in Ireland, with an improving trend in the numbers of people employed. • On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 10,000 on the quarter, bringing total employment back to 1.8m persons. This is the first quarterly increase since Q4 2007. This rise follows falls of 1.1% in Q3 and 0.2% in Q2. • The unemployment rate remains unchanged from Q3 at 14.6%. • The recently released Manpower The recently released Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Employment Outlook Survey for Ireland also suggests that employment conditions are improving on Ireland also suggests that the island. employment conditions are improving • Of the employers surveyed, 7% expect an increase in headcount — the highest percentage since Q4 2008 — while 10% expect workforce numbers to decrease. • The net employment outlook is -3%. When adjusted to remove seasonal variations, the net employment outlook stands at a muted -2%. This is relatively stable both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. 2 Davy Research Flash Note: CPL Resources March 21, 2012 Figure 1: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q2 2012 for Ireland 15% Percent of respondents increasing headcount highest since Q4 2008 10% 5% 0% Seasonally adjusted net outlook negative but stable -5% -10% -15% -20% Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Respondents increase headcount Net employment outlook (seasonally adjusted) Source: Manpower Employment Survey; Davy CPL has expanded its European and healthcare sector footprint CPL has a history of making strategic bolt-on acquisitions, and this trend has continued. The company recently announced that it has acquired European Human Resources AB (ERHAB). ERHAB provides human resources solutions for companies within the Scandinavian market. In the statement, CPL CEO Anne Heraty commented as follows:"I would like to welcome the employees of ERHAB to the CPL Group, this partnership allows us deliver on our strategy to replicate our existing business model in new geographies". Given the brevity of the statement, we assume that the acquisition is relatively small. The acquisition fits well with CPL's strategy of expanding its European footprint. At the time of its financial year results, the company had nine offices outside Ireland and generated c.33% of permanent fees from outside Ireland. CPL has also expanded into the highly fragmented and fast growing healthcare sector with the acquisition of Runway Personnel (acquired April 2011) and PHC Management (acquired November 2011); combined, these cost €1.2m net of cash acquired. Runway Personnel Limited is an Ireland-based company that provides a range of recruitment solutions in the healthcare sector, including to public and private hospitals, care homes and allied health facilities. PHC is a privately-held company that provides quality, person-centred care and support to individuals in their own homes. 3 Davy Research Flash Note: CPL Resources March 21, 2012 CPL has passed the bottom of the cycle and is approaching mid-cycle; valuation does not reflect this Cyclicality of metrics Below we have performed an analysis based on CPL's performance through the cycle. We focus on two key operating metrics: net fee income (NFI) per consultant (i.e. the amount of gross profit each consultant generates) and the conversion ratio (PBT/NFI), which is a measure of efficiency and operating leverage.
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