Russia’s Muslim Strategy by Walter Laqueur

November 1, 2009 :: Number Six ...

Islam is “Russia’s fate.” This was the prediction made a few years ago by Aleksei Malashenko, one of Rus- sia’s leading (and most reliable) experts on Islam. This may be an exaggeration, but perhaps not by much.

Demography is also Russia’s fate; if the And an important player it is. It took Ger- situation and the prospects were less critical, many a mere fifteen years after defeat in the Islam would be less of a threat. With equal First World War to reappear as a major power justice it could be said that Russia’s historical on the global scene. It took Russia about the misfortune (and fate) are its obsession with same time to reemerge after the breakdown imaginary dangers and neglect of real ones. of the Soviet Union. The reemergence was Stalin, it will be recalled, trusted no one, es- made possible, above all, by the boom in the pecially not old Bolsheviks, but he was cer- price of raw materials such as oil and gas, tain that Hitler would not attack the Soviet which Russia has in abundance. Despite all Union. It is a fascinating syndrome, and one the violent ups and downs in the world econ- that has again become crucial with the ree- omy, the demand for these raw materials will mergence of Russia as an important player in continue to be a source of strength for Rus- world politics. sia. At the same time, the new Russia con- ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 1 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard fronts major domestic and external chal- decisive date for Moscow was 1552 when lenges that did not exist (or did not exist to Ivan IV (the Terrible) occupied Kazan and the same extent) before. Russia’s future de- shortly thereafter the whole middle Volga re- pends upon how well it copes with them. gion. But the still-powerful Crimean Khanate raided southern Russia for many more years, One of the main challenges facing Russia is and in 1571 occupied and burned Moscow. its relationship with Islam, both on the inter- nal front and in foreign policy. It would cer- However, once the wars with the Ottoman tainly be too much to say that the Russian empire lost their importance, and the Tsarist leadership and public opinion have failed to empire established itself firmly from the recognize this, but the full importance of the Prussian border to Vladivostok, Russians issue has not been appreciated. The reasons gave little thought to their relations with are not shrouded in secrecy: it is the deeply- Muslim minorities inside Russia and with rooted belief that America, and the West in neighboring Muslim countries. The Russian general, constitute the main peril facing Rus- conquest of the Caucasus inspired two gen- sia in the past, present and the foreseeable erations of Russian writers from Pushkin and future. Lermontov to Tolstoi, but it seemed to be just In fact, Russia and the West share certain another colonial war, comparable to similar common interests in the Middle East and the wars fought by other imperial powers. It was Muslim world in general. But a realization of the attraction of a strange and exotic world this truth collides with the new Russian doc- that inspired them, comparable perhaps in trine as it has developed in recent years, ac- some ways to Kipling’s fascination with In- cording to which Muslim countries are Rus- dia. There was the occasional hostile or con- sia's natural allies in the inevitable and per- temptuous remark, such as Lermontov’s fa- ennial confrontation with the West. This on- mous lullaby about the evil Chechen with his going debate, largely ignored in Western kinzhal (big dagger) crawling about the capitals, forms the subject of this house, obviously up to no good. The fact that paper. Lermontov had called one of his fellow officers a gorets Resistance, romance, neglect (Muslim highlander) led to The Russian encounter with Islam the duel in which he lost his dates back many centuries. In parts life. But by and large, these of Russia, Islam appeared on the were the exceptions. Griboe- scene before Christianity. Just as dov, one of the greatest Rus- Europe was under pressure from sian writers of his day (and a the Ottoman Empire for centuries, diplomat), was killed by a Russia was threatened by Muslim fanatical mob in the Russian powers from both the east and embassy in Tehran. This, south. While the danger to Europe though sadly received, did by abated after the defeat of the Otto- no means generate Islamo- mans before Vienna in 1689, the phobia, as it was considered ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 2 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard more or less normal behavior in less civilized official Communist ideology. This local in- countries. telligentsia had been integrated and given Islam as a religion and a spiritual influence leading positions in their republics. Some had hardly preoccupied the Russian Orthodox even been accepted in the center of power, Church. Russian philosophical and religious just as the Caucasian aristocracy had been thinkers of the nineteenth century such as socially and politically accepted in Tsarist St. Chaadayev, and the Slavophils Chomyakov Petersburg and Moscow. and Solovev, occasionally mentioned Islam But the general inertia and stagnation (zastoi) in their works, but they were not very well- of the 1970s and 1980s also had strong re- informed about the subject and most of what percussion in the Muslim regions. Brezhnev, they wrote was speculation. The Moscow who tried to evade conflict whenever possi- man in the street hardly encountered Islam ble, upbraided the Central Asians on more except perhaps when meeting his janitor; than one occasion for not pulling their among them, Tatars were strongly repre- weight, and for depending on economic and sented. other assistance from the center which could Resistance against Russian domination con- ill afford it, thus becoming more and more of tinued on a local scale, but it was suppressed a burden. by the central authorities without much diffi- Post-Soviet stress culty. Examples include the Central Asia re- bellion in 1916, when about one-third of the The breakdown of the Soviet Union aggra- Kyrgyz people fled to China; and the Bas- vated the situation, when it appeared that the matchi campaign after the Bolshevik take- often-invoked friendship of the peoples over, which last almost seven years. These (druzhba narodov) was not, to put it mildly, were considered events of limited local im- deeply rooted. Many millions of ethnic Rus- portance—tensions inevitable in the relation- sians left the Central Asian republics, where ship between colonial powers and their sub- they were made to feel unsafe and unwanted. jects. The major Muslim republics became politi- It was widely believed among Western ob- cally independent, but in many other respects servers in the 1930s and even after the Sec- their dependence on Moscow continued or ond World War, that the Soviet Union, what- became even stronger. The quality of the new ever its other shortcomings, had succeeded in leadership was bad, and the ideology that had solving the national question. This was the faded was partly replaced by Islam and Isla- consensus that emerged from the books of mism, spearheaded by emissaries from Saudi experts such as Hans Kohn and Walter Ko- Arabia and other Arab and Muslim countries. larz. Hannah Arendt shared their view. The They built hundreds of new mosques, impression was not mistaken—up to a point. launched various religious-nationalist organi- Soviet power had managed to win over sec- zations, and reorganized the hadj, the pil- tions of the native political elite and to edu- grimage to Mecca (albeit at the modest level cate a new intelligentsia which accepted the of about 20,000 pilgrims a year).

______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 3 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard The Moscow central authorities tolerated this character of radical Islam, the Russian for- influx of foreign money and ideas, partly be- eign ministry was preoccupied with the for- cause their main preoccupations were else- eign political impact of anti-Muslim senti- where, partly because they felt powerless to ments on Russia’s relations with the neigh- intervene. The KGB does seem to have been boring Muslim countries. Following the ini- concerned about the spread of “Wahhabi” in- tiative of the then-foreign minister Evgeni fluence, particularly in the northern Cauca- Primakov, the Russian ministry of foreign af- sus, and also the appearance of other radical fairs arranged a high-level conference in Muslim sects and movements such as Hizb 1998 devoted to damage control. (Primakov al-Tahrir. According to some reports, the had started his career as an Arabist and later KGB (now FSB) established some Islamist rose to the highest positions in the state appa- groupings of its own in order to be better in- ratus and the KGB.) The reputation of Russia formed about the activities of these circles. in the Muslim world was already at a low The religious-political reawakening of Islam point due to the Afghan war and the first (and often of radical Islam) coincided with Chechen war (1994-96). To repair some of the growth of a radical nationalist mood the damage, the foreign ministry argued that among the Russian population. This had if Islamophobia were to grow in Russia, this partly to do with the would be a fatal blow influx of Muslims in to the Russian tradi- the major Russian tional of tolerance cities. Greater Mos- and integrity. In cow is reportedly truth, they were wor- now the home of ried lest Russia be close to two million isolated and possibly Muslims (many of miss political oppor- them illegal resi- tunities in the Mus- dents); it is certainly lim world. the European city H o w e v e r, a n t i - with the largest Mus- Russian sentiments lim population. In were by no means the 1990s, individual attacks against Muslims universal in the Muslim world, despite the in these cities led to Muslim complaints impact of the Afghan and Chechen wars. The about the “demonization of Islam” and, as in Organization of the Islamic Conference (to Western Europe, growing Islamophobia. In give but one example) refused on more than truth, the attacks were usually turf wars in or one occasion to accord membership to around local markets, but there is no denying Ichkeria, the political organization of the that the very presence of so many alien new- Chechen rebels. Once Russia withdrew from comers generated hostility and xenophobia. Afghanistan, it ceased to be a target of both While the Russian security services worried Muslim propaganda and military (terrorist) mainly about the subversive and separatist action. There were individual cases of anti- ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 4 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard Russian propaganda and even some sporadic, level contacts continued, perhaps to demon- half-hearted preparations for terrorist action strate that Russia was still interested in the (for instance against Russian diplomats in Middle East and had to be regarded as a ma- Iraq). But there was very little general Mus- jor player. Moscow continued to argue that lim solidarity with Russian Muslims and Iran could be persuaded not to use its nuclear their political demands. Likewise, Russian installations for military purposes, even Muslims showed little interest in the affairs though there was little factual evidence to of their coreligionists in other countries. An this effect. In 2007, the Hamas foreign minis- appeal to contribute money to the victims of ter Mahmud Zahhar paid another visit to the Gaza campaign in 2009 yielded 100,000 Moscow, without any tangible results. The rubles, not an impressive sum considering the only benefit accruing to Russia as the result presence of more than 20 million Muslims in of its mediation was that Muslim countries Russia. refrained from giving open support to fellow During the 1990s, something akin to a Rus- Muslims inside Russia—much to the disap- sian strategy vis-à-vis Islam developed. Rus- pointment of the Islamists within Russia. sia had abandoned old illusions of a close al- In brief, Moscow followed a strategy of me- liance with the “progressive” Arab countries, diation without attaching great hopes to it. such as had prevailed in earlier decades. It On many occasions, Russia emphasized its was well remembered that Arab countries respect for Islam, the Muslim countries and had seldom if ever paid for massive Russian their leaders, as well as the need to promote arms deliveries, which certainly did not gen- reconciliation between different cultures and erate political support. But the idea that Rus- civilizations. At the same time, there was mu- sia could play the role of a mediator between tual distrust and the deep-seated conviction the West (above all America) and the Muslim that any rapprochement with the Muslim world began to take root. So Moscow did not world could only be of a tactical character. approve of the first, let alone the second Iraq Quite obviously the Muslim countries would war; it tried to mediate in the Tadjik civil war not have launched a campaign against Russia (which would have petered out anyway after (just as they refrained from doing so against more than 100,000 people were killed); it China and India), even had Russia not cast made certain suggestions in the context of the itself as “honest broker.” Russia is a major Iranian nuclear program (which led to noth- nuclear power, as are China and India, and ing); and in 2006 it invited the Hamas leader- these considerations are decisive. ship to Moscow. Neither Hamas nor Hezbol- The Muslim landscape lah are now included in the list of terrorist organizations of the Russian intelligence Russia’s internal Muslim problems are no services. doubt of greater political importance than its It did not take long for the Russian leadership relations with foreign Muslim countries. to realize that such attempts at meditation Russian attitudes towards its Muslim minori- failed to produce tangible results or generate ties are full of contradictions, probably inevi- any benefit to Russia. Nevertheless, low- tably so. Moscow insists on absolute loyalty ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 5 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard on the part of its Muslim citizens, but cannot Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are cut off from and does not want to fulfill many of the de- the other Muslim regions, the Russian ethnic mands of even the more moderate elements element is strong in both republics (almost among the Muslims. half in Tatarstan—more in the major cities such as Kazan and Ufa), and there have been This refers above all to the Muslim republics many mixed marriages. The Bashkirs are a on the middle Volga such as Tatarstan and minority in their republic, and the Muslims Bashkortostan. They have a measure of amount to a majority only if the Tatar sector autonomy but want much more. The present is added. However, the relations between the rulers and political elite two ethnic groups has date back to the Soviet not always been smooth. period: Murtaza Rakho- The influence of mod- mov and Mintimer ernist Islam (jadidism) Shaimiev, the political remains strong, and bosses of the two repub- there has been, and con- lics, both in their seven- tinues to be, criticism of ties, began their careers and even contempt for in the Communist era, fundamentalist Islam. gained the Order of (“We do not want to re- Lenin and similar dis- turn to the middle tinctions, and have been ages.”) Opposition to in command since 1991 Moscow is based more and 1993 respectively. on nationalist than relig- They actually belonged ious grounds. to the orthodox wing of the Communist party, The second major con- which was opposed to centration of Russian the Gorbachev reforms. Muslims is Moscow. Es- timates of their number The economic situation vary greatly—between in these two highly indus- 1.5 and 2 million—but trialized regions is better than in most other walking the Moscow street their massive parts of the Russian federation, largely presence is unmistakable. Whole quarters of thanks to the oil industry and its various the capital have been taken over by them, branches. Nevertheless (or because of it), such as Butovo in the far south, but also re- they have made growing political and eco- gions near the big official and unofficial nomic demands of Moscow. The idea that the markets. There are many new mosques first deputy prime minister (or president) of (among them four or five truly big ones), the Russian Federation should be a Muslim Muslim cultural clubs, hospitals, schools, seems to have originated in the Volga region. kindergartens, food shops and even a super- Political separatism has few prospects here: market named Appelsina claiming to be on

______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 6 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard the European level. It is announced that more lieved to have perished in the two Chechen will be opened soon. There are no major wars. Eventually, Russia succeeded in impos- bookshops as yet and no Muslim Russian ing a solution (for the time being), and rela- newspapers, but there is a great deal of activ- tive calm prevails. Grozny, the heavily de- ity on the Internet. (The works of Sayyid stroyed capital, is being rebuilt. Chechnya Qutb, Mawdudi and other radical Muslim has become a partly autonomous Muslim re- thinkers have been translated and can be ob- gion in which the Sharia is the law of the tained without difficulty.) The authorities land; the local authorities have been pressing have been trying to expel the illegals of for the legalization of polygamy. whom there are a great many, closing down To what extent the new Chechen leadership some of the major markets. (This was di- believes in fundamentalist Islam is by no rected not only against Muslims but also means clear; more likely they feel the need against Chinese, other Asians and “people of for an official ideology that could serve as a Caucasian background” in general.) uniting force, and at the same time counteract On the other hand, Luzhkov, the influential the accusations of the rebels that the mem- Moscow mayor, has gone out of his way to bers of the ruling pro-Putin clique are apos- gain popularity among the Muslim residents, tates, hostile to Islam. The rebels, who suf- allocating funds for some of their religious fered heavy blows, not only hate the Russian and cultural institutions (which remain firmly occupiers but also bitterly attack America under the observation of the KGB). Perhaps (which they claim supports Russian oppres- more important, Putin and Medvedev have sion) and denounce the Jews (the source of done the same, sending greetings to the Mus- all global evil). However, not all the declara- lim community on the occasion of their holi- tions attributed to the Chechen opposition on days and even visiting one or another major the Internet can be taken at face value; Rus- mosque. Such practices, aimed at the domes- sian black propaganda seems to be at work. tication of Islam would have been unthink- Nevertheless, the Russian policy of appoint- able ten or even five years ago, and they re- ing more or less trustworthy satraps such as flect the growing im- the younger Kadyrov portance of the Mus- offers no guarantee as lim presence in the far as the future if con- capital. cerned. Moscow is Northern Caucasus is quite aware that their the third and most local representatives dangerous Muslim will press for more and concentration. The ba- more independence sic facts are well (and money), are diffi- known and need not cult to control and, in be reiterated in detail. the final analysis, can- Some 160,000 soldiers not be trusted. and civilians are be- The end of the ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 7 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard Chechen war brought no peace to other parts Russia keeps a close watch over Central of the northern Caucasus. On the contrary, Asia. If radical Islam were to take over po- attacks by Islamist gangs against the authori- litical power in these republics or even only ties in Daghestan, Ingushetia and other re- one or two of them, this would be a major publics and regions increased in 2009, result- disaster for Russia, which considers this vast ing in the killing of police chiefs and other region an integral part of its ”privileged zone leading officials. In June 2009, Yunusbek of influence.” Radical Islam has attempted to Yevkurov, president of Ingushetia, narrowly gain a strong foothold in a variety of ways. escaped death in an attack in which he was The high tide of the activities of the Islamic injured. The situation was deemed suffi- Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which ciently serious for Medvedev to visit Daghes- joined forces with the Taliban, was between tan (for the second time in one year) and In- 1999 and 2004. Hizb al-Tahrir began to send gushetia. It is thought that no Russian presi- its emissaries even earlier. (It was banned in dent has ever done that before. Russia in 2003 and is banned now in most No solution seems to be in sight for stabiliz- other republics, but probably maintains small ing the situation in northern Caucasus, partly underground cells.) Their campaigns were because of the continuing attacks of the ji- defeated by often brutal repression, and of hadists, but also because there seems to be an late there have been relatively few terrorist inherent, traditional inclination towards long attacks. There is reason to assume that radical wars in the region. And if there is no outside Islam has struck root in at least some regions, enemy, Caucasians seem to enjoy fighting but it is difficult if not impossible for outsid- one other.1 There are some forty nationalities ers to know how deep these roots run and and thirty languages in Daghestan alone, and what forces the jihadists could mobilize. the situation in other parts of the region is not In addition to the extremist opposition to the very different. During the Soviet era the con- Central Asian governments, there are more flicts were suppressed. Now the Islamists moderate forces also opposed to the authori- may believe that if they could only succeed ties, and it would be wrong not to differenti- in defeating Russia militarily and expelling ate between these two forces. Moderate op- the Russian civilians, they might impose their position arises from the fact that local gov- own pax Islamica on the region. ernments are authoritarian (only in Tadjiki- The middle Volga region and the Caucasus stan is the opposition represented in parlia- apart, Russia confronts radical Islam in the ment), corrupt and fairly inefficient. It could former Muslim republics of the Soviet Union be argued that Central Asia has never experi- in Central Asia and, to a lesser degree, Azer- enced good, efficient and incorrupt rule, and baidjan. that, as in many other countries, nothing can work in these places without at least a modi-

1 A personal note of recollection: I first visited the northern Caucasus four times between 1957 and 1966, and was one of the first foreigners to be admitted to this region. The strongest impression gained during these visits (apart from the mag- nificent landscape—Switzerland without the tourists) was the tension between the nationalities, even if this seldom found open expression. ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 8 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard cum of corruption. However, there are de- strive for an alliance with the Islamic coun- grees of corruption, and at time of acute eco- tries or at least some of them (above all Tur- nomic crisis these republics could be vulner- key and Iran—the Arab countries usually able to Islamist movements pretending to figure last and Pakistan does not figure at combine the orthodox practice of the true all). On the other hand, a deep distrust pre- faith with honesty and greater efficiency. vails: Putin’s “Russia has only two reliable A new Russian doctrine? allies, its infantry and its artillery” (the say- ing was borrowed from Tsar Alexander III). If Russia has an overall strategy vis-à-vis Is- The fading and discrediting of Marxism- lam and the Muslim world, it is replete with Leninism have required a new doctrine. contradictions and can be understood only (Marx is hardly ever quoted these days and within the framework of how Russians see Lenin only seldom. Stalin had a major come- their place in the world now and in the years back but as a Russian patriot, not as a Marx- ahead. There is the constant contradiction be- ist.) The new Russian doctrine has many fac- tween a feeling of worthlessness and the sen- ets and it ranges from the relatively sober to timent of superiority, of having a mission to the obscure, farfetched and bizarre (which fulfill. Worthlessness found its classical for- suddenly became respectable) to the clini- mulation in Chaadayev’s Philosophical Let- cally mad. ters (1836): we had neither a Renaissance nor an Enlightenment, we have contributed noth- To begin with the ing to world culture, we have not added a last: Yuri Petukhov, single idea, but we disfigured everything we recently deceased, touched. We belong neither to West nor to was a widely read East. Chaadayev was declared a madman by science fiction writer. the Tsar who sent him his doctor several Shortly before his times a week. But Chaadayev’s diagnosis has demise he formulated influenced Russian thinking to this day and is his political views frequently quoted. and prophecies in Russkii mirovoi po- On the other hand, there is the feeling of su- ryadok (The Russian periority, the view of Russia as the Third World Order). Ac- Rome possessed of a unique mission in the cording to him, all world. These feelings of mission were not foreigners are Nean- prominently voiced during the late Soviet pe- derthals and degenerates (the term appears a riod or the decade after, but with the eco- thousand times in his book), Europe and nomic recovery they became not just respect- America were created by Russians and able but achieved almost the status of an offi- should be repossessed, all Russian leaders cial ideology. including Lenin and Khrushchev (a weakling Similar contradictions abound in relations who did not dare to go to war over Cuba) with the Muslim world. On the one hand, were traitors. Only the great Stalin is an ex- there is the conviction that Russia ought to ception. Hitler was a romantic, the First and ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 9 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard Second World Wars were unleashed by the present a synthetic new ideology, a mixture treacherous Americans and the British, Pearl of some of the more disreputable Western Harbor was a magnificent operation, and so elements (Italian neo-fascism in the style of on. The American degenerates, in collabora- Julius Evola, the new right of Alain de Be- tion with the European jackals, want to de- noist in France, and neo-Nazi geopolitics). stroy Russia, and caused the Chernobyl nu- He later realized the need for some specific clear explosion of 1986. Russian elements and adopted an updated Petukhov expressed the thoughts and feeling version of Eurasianism, an ideology first de- of not a few simpleminded compatriots. Al- veloped in the 1920s among Russian émi- exander Dugin and Igor Panarin operate on a grés. more sophisticated level. Few took them se- The Eurasian idea, in one form or another, is riously a decade or so ago, but more recently widely spread among Russian political elite. they have become respectable and even in- One example is Put voinov Allakha: Islam i fluential within the Kremlin (reportedly politika Rossii (The Road of Allah’s Warri- through Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s political ors: Islam and Russian Politics), a basic text mastermind). at the Russian Military Academy and the Dugin began his ideological odyssey in the university of the security services. The book ranks of Pamyat, the ultra-right anti-Semitic was authored by Zhuraviev, Melkov and group in the last days of Soviet rule. When he General Shershnev, all of them teachers at realized that such primitive and outdated these institutions. They regard Islamist sepa- views had no political future, he established ratism a major threat to the survival of Russia his own school. Panarin, on the other hand, and have no sympathy for countries which originally belonged to the liberal dissidents have adopted the Sharia and sponsor ji- but later made his way to the other end of the hadism. But when it comes to strategies of political spectrum. He became known in the how to confront these dangers, the message West following his prediction that America is ex oriente lux: the world has to turn to the would not exist beyond 2010. There would East rather than the West for inspiration and be a civil war and the country would be di- leadership to find a way of salvation. vided into six separate states. Since Russia alone is not strong enough to Dugin (pictured right) counteract American and European influence, seems to enjoy consid- an alliance of Russia, China, India and Iran erable respect among (called RIKI) is envisaged. (The authors, the military, the media otherwise not distinguished by a sense of and even in academic humor, mention that they are aware of Rikki- circles, whereas Pa- Tikki-Tavi, the heroic mongoose in Kipling’s narin’s influence is Jungle Book.) These countries behaved very mainly felt in academe well in the past, and did not exploit the dec- and the foreign minis- ade of Russian weakness after the breakdown try academy. Dugin of the Soviet Union. Furthermore, the RIKI tried for many years to countries are also religiously close to each ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 10 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard other: Russian ethics are close to Asian ethics repercussions of this disaster are far from and have nothing in common with the capi- fully clear among those shaping Russian pol- talist and usurious Protestant ethic as de- icy, both vis-à-vis the Muslim minority at scribed by Benjamin Franklin and Max We- home and Islam in Russian foreign policy. ber. The authors also note that Catholicism is Islam expert Malashenko, for example, be- a far greater danger to Russia than Is- lieves that neither in the short term nor by lam—thus contradicting their earlier claim 2050 will there be any reason to speak of the that is Islam is a major menace. Islamization of Russia. Other observers take Seen in this light, RIKI would become not a less sanguine view, often drawing attention only the leading political and military global to the ethnic background of the recruits to the factor, but also the moral leader of the world. Russian army, which is increasingly of Mus- These are ambitious plans, especially consid- lim origin. In any case, it is not just a matter ering that they involve countries that have of statistics. Much depends from the measure very little in common and in fact deeply dis- of integration of national and religious mi- trust one another. Russia and China, China norities in Russia: will they be loyal to re- and India, Iran and the rest of the world, gime or will the separatist trends become show no great eagerness to collaborate too stronger? closely and are among the most corrupt in the The Russian authorities, while strictly ob- world. Yet this is the geopolitical world view serving developments inside the Muslim conveyed to the trainees of the military communities (and intervening when neces- forces and the state security services. sary), are trying to keep their Muslims con- Russia blinded tent and prevent national strife (“Islamopho- bia”). But they face the growing xenophobia The nationalist right-wingers, both moderate promoted by the Russian right, and popular and extremist, agree that the United States opinion in general (“Russia for the Rus- and its European allies are Russia’s most sians”). The Russian Orthodox Church like- dangerous enemies by far. The fact that the wise follows what they regard as official ap- Soviet Union lost out in the Cold War and peasement of Islam with grave misgivings. eventually collapsed seemed to confirm Rus- They want to preserve their old/new status as sian fears. This has shaped Russian strategy the state religion, and while the Kremlin is to the present day, and probably will do so in vitally interested in good relations with the the foreseeable future. Even if the more ex- Orthodox Church, it finds it increasingly dif- treme fantasies about American intrigues and ficult to pursue a balancing act between the crimes are not shared by the mainstream Orthodox and Islam. Appeals for a dialogue Russian establishment, the preoccupation between the religions are mere eyewash; with America has blinded large sections of there is no such readiness to talk on either the Russian elite to other threats facing their side. country. The Caucasus remains Russia’s soft under- Foremost among these is demographic de- belly and no solution is in sight. Most of the cline: the shrinking of Russia. The political action has shifted from Chechnya to Daghes- ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 11 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard tan, Ingushetia and some of the other regions. American activities should have been wel- Daghestan is very poor, and an independent comed without reservation (and often were), Daghestan without constant help from Russia but there seem to have been doubts of late could hardly exist. But such economic con- about the wisdom of such a policy. The siderations will not stop the fighting; the re- Kremlin may follow the misfortunes of the bels can always argue that they aim at a West in Afghanistan with schadenfreude, but united northern Caucasus. This may be no if the United States and NATO were to with- more than wishful thinking, but useful as a draw from Afghanistan, it would again be- powerful myth while the fighting continues. come a Russian problem as a base for jihadist Russian policy will continue as before: brutal activities in Central Asia. repression of separatism and the imposition Still, regime strategy is dominated by the of a leadership considered trustworthy by American shadow and the conviction that Moscow (and collaborationist by jihadists). what helps the United States must be bad for Otherwise, Russian foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. This appears strange if Islam should Islam and Islamism has been undecided, try- indeed be “Russia’s fate.” But it may take a ing to keep all options open. With America long time for Russia to unlearn its obsession still looming as the great threat, Islamist anti- with the West. ••

Walter Laqueur Middle East Strategy Middle East Papers at Harvard Walter Laqueur has written Middle East more than Strategy at Har- twenty books, vard (MESH) is a translated into project of the Na- as many lan- tional Security guages. He was Studies Program a co-founder at the Weatherhead Center for In- and editor of the Journal of Con- ternational Affairs, Harvard Uni- temporary History in London and versity. MESH is a community of the Washington Quarterly. Con- scholars and practitioners who are Middle East Papers is a series of currently he chaired the Interna- interested in U.S. strategic options occasional studies published by tional Research Council of the for the Middle East. MESH brings Middle East Strategy at Harvard. Washington-based Center for Stra- together some of the most original Middle East Papers is distributed tegic and International Studies strategic thinkers in academe, re- exclusively as an e-publication. (CSIS). He has taught at George- search centers, and government, in Read more about the series and town, Chicago, Harvard, Johns a web-based forum for exchanging download papers here: Hopkins, Brandeis, and Tel Aviv and disseminating ideas. http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh/ universities. He lives in Washing- papers ton, D.C.. Find MESH at: http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/mesh Copyright © 2009 President and Fellows of Harvard College ______Walter Laqueur :: Russia’s Muslim Strategy 12 Middle East Papers :: Middle East Strategy at Harvard