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Troubled Partnership: U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Troubled Partnership U.S.-Turkish Relations in an Era of Global Geopolitical Change F. Stephen Larrabee Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Larrabee, F. Stephen. Troubled partnership : U.S.–Turkish relations in an era of global geopolitical change / F. Stephen Larrabee. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4756-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Foreign relations—Turkey. 2. Turkey—Foreign relations— United States. 3. National security—United States. 4. National security—Turkey. 5. United States—Military relations—Turkey. 6. Turkey—Military relations— United States. 7. World politics—1989– 8. Geopolitics. 9. Social change. I. Title. E183.8.T8L36 2010 327.730561—dc22 2009042096 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover image courtesy of AP Photo/Charles Dharapak. © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface With the end of the Cold War, many Turks feared that Turkey would lose its strategic significance in American eyes. These fears, however, have proven to be unfounded. Rather than decreasing, Turkey’s strate- gic significance has increased. Turkey stands at the nexus of four geo- graphic areas of growing strategic importance in the post–Cold War era: the Balkans, the Middle East, the Caucasus/Central Asia, and the Persian Gulf region. In each of these areas, Turkey’s cooperation is critical for achieving U.S. policy goals. However, in recent years—especially since 2003—U.S.- Turkish relations have undergone serious strains. Sharp differences over Iraq and the Kurdish issue have been compounded by differences over the Middle East, particularly relations with Iran, Iraq, and Syria. At the same time, Turkey has witnessed a sharp rise in anti-American sentiment.1 This monograph examines the causes of recent strains in the U.S.-Turkish security partnership and options for reducing these strains. It should be of interest to U.S. policymakers and other U.S. officials monitoring developments in Turkey and its neighborhood. This research was sponsored by the Director of Operational Plan- ning, Policy and Strategy, Regional Issues Directorate, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, Operations, Plans and Requirements, Headquar- ters United States Air Force (AF/A5XX), and was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part 1 See Transatlantic Trends, Transatlantic Trends: Key Findings 2007, Washington, D.C.: German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2007, p. 21. See also Pew Global Attitudes Project, Global Unease with Major Powers, Pew Research Center, June 27, 2007. iii iv Troubled Partnership of a fiscal year 2007 study entitled “Troubled Partnerships: The Grow- ing Challenge of Managing U.S. Security Relationships and Implica- tions for the United States Air Force.” RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO The U.S.-Turkish Security Partnership in Transition ...................... 3 U.S. and Turkish Interests ........................................................ 3 Changing Turkish Perceptions of the Security Partnership ................... 5 The End of the Cold War ......................................................... 6 The Impact of the Gulf War ...................................................... 7 CHAPTER THREE Iraq and the Kurdish Challenge ..............................................11 The March 1, 2003, Parliamentary Vote .......................................12 The Resurgence of the PKK ......................................................14 Growing Anti-American Sentiment ............................................16 The Ralston Mission ..............................................................18 The Shift in U.S. Policy ..........................................................19 Turkish-KRG Relations ..........................................................21 The Impact of the July 2009 Kurdish Elections .............................. 24 The Problem of Kirkuk ...........................................................25 v vi Troubled Partnership The Internal Kurdish Dimension .............................................. 26 Iraq’s Uncertain Political Evolution ............................................ 30 CHAPTER FOUR The Broader Middle East .......................................................33 U.S.-Turkish Differences over Iran and Syria ................................. 34 Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions ........................................................ 36 The Impact of the June 2009 Iranian Presidential Election ..................37 Relations with Syria ...............................................................39 Lebanon and the Broader Regional Stage ..................................... 40 Growing Ties to the Gulf Cooperation Council ..............................41 The Israeli Connection .......................................................... 43 Democracy Promotion in the Middle East ....................................45 CHAPTER FIVE Russia and Eurasia...............................................................47 The Russian Factor ............................................................... 48 Turkish-Armenian Rapprochement .............................................51 The Armenian Genocide Resolution ............................................55 The Broader Regional Dimension .............................................
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