The US Army and the Battle for Baghdad: Lessons Learned
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C O R P O R A T I O N The U.S. Army and the Battle for Baghdad Lessons Learned—And Still to Be Learned David E. Johnson, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, Brenna Allen, Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile, James Hoobler, Michael Schwille, Jerry M. Sollinger, Sean M. Zeigler For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3076 Library of Congress Control Number: 2019940985 ISBN: 978-0-8330-9601-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Lessons Learned from 13 Years of Conflict: The Battle for Baghdad, 2003–2008, spon- sored by the Office of Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Army. The project was intended to capture key lessons to help the U.S. Army and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) retain institutional knowledge and capabilities, as well as to serve as a history of the U.S. Army’s efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan from 2001 to 2016. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is HQD146863. This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doc- trine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corpora- tion, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. RAND operates under a “Federal-Wide Assurance” (FWA00003425) and com- plies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as “the Common Rule,” as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND’s Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government. iii Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary .............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ................................................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ....................................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Study Approach ........................................................................................ 1 Organization of This Report ......................................................................... 2 CHAPTER TWO Prewar Planning ...................................................................................... 7 Civilian Prewar Planning ............................................................................. 9 Prewar Military Planning ........................................................................... 23 Lessons from This Era ............................................................................... 38 CHAPTER THREE Occupation ........................................................................................... 43 The Military Picture ................................................................................. 44 ORHA’s Short-Lived Tenure ........................................................................ 54 Coalition Provisional Authority and the American Attempt at Occupation ...................59 CPA Orders 1 and 2 ..................................................................................65 Rebuilding the Iraqi Security Forces: An Orphaned Mission ...................................74 Lessons from This Era ................................................................................81 CHAPTER FOUR The Casey Period ....................................................................................89 Key Debates ............................................................................................89 Military Situation and Strategy: Actions on the Ground to Control Baghdad ................91 Embassy Challenges: Reconstruction in a War Zone ............................................ 99 v vi The U.S. Army and the Battle for Baghdad: Lessons Learned—And Still to Be Learned Civilian Policy Views from Washington and Baghdad ......................................... 103 Efforts to Create Iraqi Security Forces and Defense Institutions .............................. 109 Lessons from This Era .............................................................................. 119 CHAPTER FIVE The Surge ............................................................................................ 123 Key Debates: The Surge Versus the Iraq Study Group Report ................................ 123 Military Situation and Operations ................................................................ 125 A Tough Seven Months ............................................................................ 126 Counterinsurgency and the Surge ................................................................. 130 Counterinsurgency Operations in Practice ...................................................... 131 Special Operations Command Ramps Up ....................................................... 136 Countering the Shia Element ...................................................................... 137 The Battle of Sadr City ............................................................................. 138 Civilians and the Surge: One Surge, Many Stories ............................................. 142 Civilians and the Surge ............................................................................. 149 Iraqi Security Forces Through 2008 ............................................................. 152 Creating an Enterprise in Security Force Assistance—Changing MNSTC-I .............. 154 Increased Training Efforts ........................................................................ 157 Problems with MOI—Police, Corruption, and Security ....................................... 159 Adviser Teams—Did the United States Get It Right? ......................................... 162 Did the Surge Work? ............................................................................... 163 Lessons from This Era .............................................................................. 168 CHAPTER SIX Withdrawal ......................................................................................... 171 The Military Story .................................................................................. 172 SOFA: Tried and Failed ............................................................................ 176 Politicization of the Iraqi Security Forces ........................................................ 188 Postmortem .......................................................................................... 191 Lessons from This Era .............................................................................. 194 CHAPTER SEVEN Overarching Lessons for the U.S. Army ....................................................... 197 The Nature of the Lessons from Iraq—and the Constraints on Learning ................... 198 Overarching Lessons from the Iraq War and Recommendations for the Army ............. 203 Final Thoughts ...................................................................................... 233 APPENDIX Timeline of Major Events in the Battle for Baghdad ........................................ 235 References ........................................................................................... 269 Figures and Tables Figures 5.1. Anbar Province, Iraq .................................................................. 127 5.2. Baghdad Belts .......................................................................... 134 5.3. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance and Strike Assets Employed in the Battle of Sadr City................................................. 140 Tables 2.1. Timetable of Civilian Prewar Planning for Phase IV............................... 22 2.2. Phase IV Troop-to-Task Analysis, May 2003 ........................................35 7.1. Specific Lessons for the U.S. Army, by Chapter ..................................