02 2019 Marte Nilsen Ne Lynn Aung Ne Lynn Stein Tønnesson Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Peace In 2017, its members joined a seven- joined members its 2017, In alliance (FPNCC) political member in the test to put is cohesion The NA’s cracks on down the as government 2019 the members, its of one (AA) agreed to China have and build an Economic Corridor from Bengal part as of of the Bay to Yunnan Initiative & Road Belt China’s The stability of the Economic Corridor between the peace from benefit would Northern the and government Myanmar Alliance The Northern a is Alliance (NA) coalition of four armed groups PRIO POLICY BRIEF • • • • Brief Points • Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security Peace (MIPS) Institute for Myanmar As of February 2019, Myanmar’s Northern Myanmar’s FebruaryAs 2019, of in the player a key is Alliance (NA) by armed Prodded conflicts. country’s has China, government the Myanmar in informal talksengaged with the NA’s part a broader are of who members, four Political the Federal alliance: political Negotiation and Consultative Committee the 2018, December On 21 (FPNCC). declared ArmyMyanmar (Tatmadaw) in the unilateral ceasefire a four-month armies NA the four three of where areas in the a major army engaged is Yet operate. against operation thecounter-insurgency the Arakanfourth member: Army (AA), carried surprise a attackwho out against in on Rakhine State Police Guard Border Facebook On 5 February 2019, 4 January. the Northern of the accounts down closed calling them members, Alliance its and the is What organizations”. “dangerous members Northern Can Alliance? its Myanmar’s in full participants become peace process? Join the Peace Process? Peace the Join Will Myanmar’s Northern Alliance Alliance Northern Will Myanmar’s

Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) www.prio.org ISBN: 978-82-7288-951-6 (print) PO Box 9229 Grønland, NO-0134 Oslo, Norway Facebook: PRIO.org 978-82-7288-952-3 (online) Visiting Address: Hausmanns gate 3 Twitter: PRIOUpdates What is Myanmar’s Northern Alliance? and dominated by Christian Baptists. Its main predecessor, the Palaung National Liberation forces are in Kachin State, but at least one Army, had agreed to a ceasefire in 1991 and The Northern Alliance (NA) is a military brigade operates in northern Shan State. disarmed in 2005. From the outset in 2009, coalition of four armed groups, each of which the TNLA has enjoyed vast public support, also has a political wing: Arakan Army/ In 2008, the KIO became frustrated as the and is likely to have 4–5,000 active fighters. United League of Arakan (AA/ULA); Kachin government ignored it in the consultations for It recruits them from the scattered villages Independence Army/Organization (KIA/ Myanmar’s new constitution. This frustration in the Palaung highlands of northern Shan KIO); Myanmar National Democratic Alliance grew when a sympathetic party was prohibited State, and taxes road transportation. The TNLA Army/Myanmar National Truth and Justice from taking part in the 2010 elections. In June rarely clashes with the Tatmadaw, but in 2018 Party (MNDAA/MNTJP); and Ta’ang National 2011, armed conflict broke out between the it fought the SSA/RCSS (SSA-South), which, Liberation Army/Palaung State Liberation Front KIA and Tatmadaw, and has continued since. after signing the NCA, moved north from its (TNLA/PSLF). None of these groups have a In December 2012, the Tatmadaw launched an southern strongholds, entering TNLA territory. ceasefire agreement with the government. offensive against the KIO capital Laiza, taking This exacerbated ethnic suspicions between the control of the hills overlooking it. Yet, President highland Palaung and lowland Shan; thousands In April 2017, the four groups formed the Thein Sein ordered the Army to stop short of of civilians were displaced. The Tatmadaw did Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative invading it, perhaps to leave room for talks. not intervene except when its own positions Committee (FPNCC) together with three groups were threatened. The SSA/SSPP (SSA-North) who do have bilateral ceasefire agreements with The KIO took active part in the talks that led has joined the TNLA in a fighting alliance the government: Shan State Army/Progress to the NCA but did not sign it. The leaders in aimed at pushing the RCSS back south. This Party (SSA/SSPP); Shan State East National Laiza may have anticipated Aung San Suu Kyi’s has spurred an internal Shan conflict. Democratic Alliance Association/Peace and victory in the November 2015 elections, and Solidarity Committee (NDAA/PSC); and hoped that she would offer better terms. In June Rakhine /Party (UWSA/UWSP). 2016, she met KIO leader N’Ban La. Later on, However, none of the FPNCC members have she established a new National Reconciliation The Arakan Army (AA) was formed in 2009 signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement and Peace Center and a Peace Commission, by the charismatic Tun Myat Naing. Since its (NCA) from October 2015, which formulates but maintained the existing NCA as an entry homeland is in the west, it seems paradoxical the basic principles for Myanmar’s official peace ticket to the peace process. Three Union Peace that it belongs to a northern alliance. Its first process. The government insists that only NCA Conferences were held in 2016–18, but the KIO fighters, however, were recruited from among signatories can be full participants in the Union could only attend as observer. migrant workers in the Kachin jade mines and Peace Conferences in the capital Naypyidaw. were trained by the KIA, and its headquarters Ten groups, with the Karen National Liberation The KIA’s reasons for joining the NA and remain on KIA-held territory. Only since Army/Union (KNLA/KNU) and the Shan State FPNCC in 2016–17 were pragmatic. Just a small 2015 has AA moved troops into Rakhine and Army/Restoration Council for Shan State (SSA/ river separates the KIO capital from China. By southern Chin State. A rapidly growing number RCSS) as most important, have signed the NCA. co-operating with the China-oriented groups of AA-Tatmadaw clashes took place there during in Wa, Mongla and Kokang, the KIA hoped 2015–19. When the NA was formed, its immediate task to avoid isolation. The resumption of armed was to attack the Tatmadaw (Armed Forces struggle in 2011 had been popular among the The Tatmadaw’s expulsion of Rohingya to of Myanmar) in Monekoe town, near China. Kachin youth, who were tired of a ceasefire Bangladesh in 2017 seemed dangerous from the In 2015, the MNDAA had almost overrun the that failed to bring much benefit and allowed AA’s perspective: It could make people believe Kokang capital Laukkaing, and in March 2018 land grabbing and exploitation of resources. By that the Rohingya – not the Tatmadaw – were it attacked police stations and a casino there. 2017, however, the Kachin again seemed war their main adversary. The AA wants to resurrect These offensives were motivated by a shift in weary. The KIA had lost much territory and the ancient Arakan, which was conquered by the Tatmadaw’s tactics from ground battles to faced recruitment challenges. Lately, however, Burma in 1784. using artillery and aerial bombardment. The there have been few clashes, and the KIO and NA needed to show military initiative. government plan again to talk. In February 2018, the police fired into a Rakhine crowd who were marking the anniversary of the We shall now present the seven FPNCC Kokang 1784 defeat, killing seven. Their martyrdom members, before assessing the likelihood that and the government’s detention of Rakhine they may join the peace process. The main force in the Monekoe and Laukkaing nationalist MP Aye Maung helped the AA gain offensives was the MNDAA, which has 2–3,000 support. It has close informal ties with the Kachin regular troops. Its leaders were driven out of Arakan National Party, which in 2015 won 22 Myanmar in 2009, and their attempt in 2015 to seats in the Rakhine State parliament. The KIA was founded in 1961 and has upwards make a comeback failed. They may now want to of 5,000 regular troops. From 1994–2011 it had negotiate their return to Laukkaing. On 4 January 2019, the AA raided four police a bilateral ceasefire with the government, and posts in northern Rakhine, killing fifteen its political wing, the Kachin Independence Palaung officers. This provoked a joint decision by Organization (KIO), governed substantial State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and parts of Kachin State from its capital Laiza. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing to send The KIO/KIA is predominantly ethnic Kachin was founded in 2009 with KIO support. Its reinforcements and crush the AA. They are

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willing to negotiate with the AA leaders but phones. They do not seek independence but Burmese king in Mandalay. Shan State contains do not accept any presence of their fighters in want to secede from Shan State and have their a great number of ethnic minorities: Wa, Pa’o, Rakhine. own ethnic state in Myanmar. Hence their Palaung, Kachin, etc. most obvious adversary is not the Myanmar Wa government but the SSA/RCSS, which fights for The rivalry between the SSA/SSPP and SSA/ Shan unity. The Wa’s reputation suffers from RCSS is a Cold War remnant. Leaders close to Just like the MNDAA and NDAA, the UWSA their trade in drugs. Yet, the 1989 ceasefire has China took a leftist position, while those closer was founded amidst the Burmese Communist never been broken. The Wa did not take part to Thailand opted for an ethno-nationalist Party’s collapse in 1989 by people who had been in the NCA negotiations but want to change program, after first having served the drug-lord the backbone of a four-decade rebellion. The it. They influence other groups through the Khun Sa. The RCSS envisions an ethnic UWSA is said to have 30,000 active troops, but FPNCC. Shan homeland with many minorities, while the actual number may be closer to 20,000. the SSPP sees a Shan territory with multiple On 9 May 1989, it agreed to a ceasefire with Shan ethnic groups. The Shan National League for Myanmar’s military junta. This was one of many Democracy, one of the few ethnic parties that did bilateral ceasefires: NDAA, 11 March 1989; The Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) was well in the 2015 elections, is closer to the SSPP MNDAA, 30 June 1989; SSPP, 2 September formed in 1971 as the political wing of the Shan than to the RCSS. Many Shan are dissatisfied 1989; Palaung State Liberation Army, 21 April State Army. Shan is the largest of Myanmar’s that their armed groups fight each other. 1991; and KIA, 24 February 1994. The UWSA ethnic states. Ethnic Shan form a clear controls two separate territories on the borders majority but have never been united politically. Mongla to China and Thailand. The Wa use the Chinese Historically, the Shan States were run by local language, Chinese currency and Chinese mobile lords, some of whom paid allegiance to the The NDAA’s 3–4,000 troops guard a www.prio.org www.prio.org PRIO POLICY BRIEF 02 2019 mountainous triangle along the border to China in the spirit of Panglong, that fully guarantees member in its homeland. and Laos, between the two Wa territories. In democratic rights, national equality and the August 2016, the Mongla sent observers to the right to self-determination on the basis of liberty, The whole peace process thus seems to be in first Union Peace Conference and commented equality and justice while upholding the jeopardy. Yet China needs stability along the positively on the NCA, while the UWSP staged principles of non-disintegration of the union, economic corridor it will be building through a walk-out. Shortly afterwards, the UWSA non-disintegration of national solidarity and Shan State, Mandalay and Rakhine to a conducted an exercise with 600 troops entering perpetuation of national sovereignty.” port and a new industrial zone on the coast. Mongla territory. Since then, the NDAA has China has told the FPNCC that stability at the coordinated its policies with the Wa. Like the The NCA is meant to serve as the foundation border is essential. At the time of writing, the UWSA, the NDAA enjoys a bilateral ceasefire for a nationwide peace process, but was signed Tatmadaw’s unilateral ceasefire seems to hold with the government, which was reconfirmed before any nationwide agreement had been in the north, while the fighting goes on in the in 1991. reached. This provoked a division between west. China tries to persuade the northern (southern) signatories and (northern) non- groups and the Myanmar government to make The FPNCC and the Nationwide signatories. The division now manifests itself peace. These pressures are welcomed by some, Ceasefire Agreement in deadly clashes in Shan State and a Rakhine while they worry others. They could have the insurgency in the west. potential to bring all relevant parties to the At the first Union Peace Conference in August– negotiating table. September 2016, the UWSP (Wa), NDAA/PSC Can the North Be Included in the Peace (Mongla), SSPP (Shan) and KIO (Kachin) were Process? observers, while the MNTJP (Kokang), PSLF List of Acronyms (Palaung) and ULA (Arakan) were not invited. The fact that the FPNCC members were invited AA/ULA: Arakan Army/United League of The Wa delegation walked out on the first day. as observers to the second and third Union Arakan Only the NCA signatories were accepted as Peace Conferences opened up a prospect FPNCC: Federal Political and Negotiation Con- full participants. Just before the second Union for them to become full participants. In sultative Committee Peace Conference in May 2017, the FPNCC was 2018, however, the cooperation between the established at a meeting in Wa State with the government and the NCA signatories ran into a KIA/KIO: Kachin Independence Army/Orga- aim to negotiate changes in the Nationwide crisis. The Tatmadaw demanded that everyone nization Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). commit to non-secession before real talks could KNLA/KNU: Karen National Liberation Army/ begin. It also moved troops into areas where the The NCA’s name is misleading, since it is KNU claims control, and it criticized the RCSS MNDAA/MNTJP: Myanmar National Demo- neither nationwide nor a mere ceasefire. It might for moving troops to northern Shan. The KNU cratic Alliance Army/Truth and Justice Party be called a “partial peace process agreement”; and RCSS then suspended their participation (Kokang) partial because less than half of Myanmar’s in ceasefire monitoring. The whole process NA: Northern Alliance armed groups have signed, “peace process” seemed in shambles. NCA: Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement because it is more than just a ceasefire. It defines NDAA/PSC: Shan State East National Demo- the basic principles to guide the process, with Can the NA/FPNCC remain united? This must cratic Alliance Association/Peace and Solidarity paragraphs reflecting at once the ethnic quest be difficult if one or two members are left to Committee (Mongla) for autonomy, the democratic aspirations of face the Tatmadaw alone on the battlefield. On PNLA: Pa’o National Liberation Army the whole nation, and the Tatmadaw’s concern 12 December 2018, the AA, MNDAA and TNLA SSA/RCSS: Shan State Army/Restoration for unity. Paragraph 1a thus reads (with ethnic declared a willingness to pursue a ceasefire. Council of Shan State (SSA-South) words in italics, democratic words underlined, On 21 December, the Tatmadaw declared a SSA/SSPP: Shan State Army/Progressive Party and military words in bold): four-month unilateral ceasefire in the north and (SSA-North) east but not in Rakhine and Chin States, where “Establish a union based on the principles the AA operates. Then, just as the new year TNLA/PSLF: Ta’ang National Liberation of democracy and federalism in accordance had begun, the AA launched its 4 January raid. Army/Palaung State Liberation Front with the outcomes of political dialogue and The Tatmadaw is now trying to root out one NA UWSA/UWSP: United Wa State Army/Party

THE AUTHORS THE PROJECT PRIO Stein Tønnesson is a historian and Research ‘At the Fringe of Myanmar’s Peace Process: The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) is a Professor at PRIO who served as leader of The KIA and the Northern Alliance’ is a PRIO non-profit peace research institute (estab- the East Asian Peace Program at Uppsala project led by Dr. Marte Nilsen with funding lished in 1959) whose overarching purpose University, 2011–17. by Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is to conduct research on the conditions for Ne Lynn Aung is the Senior Research Manager aims to engage stakeholders in Myanmar’s peaceful relations between states, groups and at MIPS. peace process in discussion about the inclu- people. The institute is independent, interna- sion of those ethnic armed groups that have tional and interdisciplinary, and explores is- Marte Nilsen is a historian of religions and not yet signed the Nationwide Ceasefire sues related to all facets of peace and conflict. Senior Researcher at PRIO. Agreement.

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