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Review of Bothnian Sea Shore-Level Displacement Data and Use of a GIS Tool to Estimate Isostatic Uplift

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Working Report 2009-17 Review of Bothnian Sea Shore-Level Displacement Data and Use of a GIS Tool to Estimate Isostatic Uplift Arto Vuorela Teea Penttinen Anne-Maj Lahdenperä February 2009 POSIVA OY Olkiluoto FI-27160 EURAJOKI, FINLAND Tel +358-2-8372 31 Fax +358-2-8372 3709 Working Report 2009-17 Review of Bothnian Sea Shore-Level Displacement Data and Use of a GIS Tool to Estimate Isostatic Uplift Arto Vuorela Teea Penttinen Anne-Maj Lahdenperä Pöyry Environment Oy February 2009 Base maps: ©National Land Survey, permission 41/MML/09 Working Reports contain information on work in progress or pending completion. The conclusions and viewpoints presented in the report are those of author(s) and do not necessarily coincide with those of Posiva. Review of Bothnian Sea Shore-Level Displacement Data And Use of a GIS Tool to Estimate Isostatic Uplift ABSTRACT The aim and approach of the study were to produce source data estimates necessary for modelling the future biosphere. The study updated the list of 14C datings of sea-level index points, which show when lakes and mires were isolated from the Baltic Sea due to isostatic uplift. The study concentrated on the Bothnian Sea, especially the Olkiluoto area. The older Finnish datings (a list of 260 sea-level index points determined in 1995) were checked and revised as needed. New data was available for 56 Finnish and 41 Swedish index points. State-of-the-art 14C calibration methods were applied. Various available data were used to estimate the parameters of the glacio-isostatic uplift model's slow component. The component describes the uplift in relation to time using parameters Bs, which is related to the uplift's total duration, and As, which is half of the total uplift possible in the period lasting from the Last Glacial Maximum to the distant future. The Bs values were estimated by means of 1) crustal thickness and 2) shoreline displacement curves. In applying method 1, this study revised the function describing the relationship between crustal thickness and Bs and created a new derivative-based method that also estimates the parameter As without radiocarbon datings and using only crustal thickness and current uplift maps. In method 2, sea-level index point subsets along the Finnish and Swedish coasts of the Bothnian Sea were selected from the revised database, and their datings and elevations were used to determine the corresponding land uplift parameters. The parameter value distributions were used to produce maps. The values of the inertia factor Bs are on average 6% higher than those calculated in 2001 but they are 10% lower in the Olkiluoto region. According to the interpolations of the new and old data, the estimated uplift at Olkiluoto for AD 12000 is 2.8 m (7%) less than calculated previously. The derivative-based method predicts an uplift for AD 12000 at Olkiluoto that is only 0.5 m more than that predicted previously. Both the shore-level displacement method and the derivative-based method propose that there is a local maximum of As northeast of the Gulf of Bothnia. The northern part of the As distribution’s maximum is farther east than in the previous results, and the Bs distribution is wider. The remaining slow uplift at Olkiluoto is 91.5–95.5 m according to the derivative method and 83.8 m according to the shore-level displacement method. The modelling uncertainties include those due to crustal properties and the eustasy model. The fast uplift parameters were only partly revised by means of re-calibration and correction of the Ancylus Lake’s level. It would be useful to recalculate the parameters also at other old sites in Fennoscandia using the IntCal04 method and revised versions of the models presented in 2005. Especially the time of the fast component’s maximum rate (Tf) could be determined more precisely. The fast uplift is closely related to the period when crustal movements were probable. This period and the solidity of the bedrock were not investigated. It is probable that the blocks bounded by the tectonic lines are moving in different ways. The movements could not be determined in this regional analysis but they seem to be similar on average. Keywords: glacio-isostatic uplift, isostatic uplift, glacial isostatic adjustment, post- glacial rebound, shoreline displacement, shore-level displacement, isolation, sea-level index point, 14C, Bothnian Sea, eustasy GIS, palaeogeography Selkämeren alueen rannansiirtymätietojen tarkistus ja GIS-sovellus isostaattisen maankohoamisen arviointiin TIIVISTELMÄ Työn näkökulma oli tulevaisuuden biosfäärimallinnuksen tarvitsemissa lähtötiedoissa. 14C-ajoitusten lista, joka koskee järvien ja soiden isolaatiota Selkämerestä maan- kohoamisen takia, päivitettiin. Työ kohdistui Selkämeren ja erityisesti Olkiluodon alueelle. Aiemmat suomalaiset ajoitukset (vuonna 1995 koottu 260 rannankorkeuden indeksipisteen lista) läpikäytiin. Uutta tietoa oli 56 pisteestä Suomesta ja 41:stä Ruotsista. 14C-kalibroinnin nykymenetelmiä sovellettiin. Eri aineistoilla arvioitiin edelleen jatkuvan hitaan maannousukomponentin parametrien arvoja glasio-isostaattisessa mallissa, joka kuvaa maankohoamista ajan suhteen para- metreilla Bs (joka viittaa maannousun kokonaiskestoon) ja As (puolet maksimaalisen jäätikön jälkeen tapahtuvan maannousun kokonaismäärästä). Bs:ää arvioitiin 1) maan- kuoren paksuuden ja 2) rannansiirtymäkäyrien avulla. Menetelmässä 1 tarkennettiin maankuoren paksuuden ja Bs:n välistä funktiota kuvaavaa yhtälöä sekä kehitettiin uusi derivaattapohjainen menetelmä, jossa myös As arvioidaan ilman radiohiiliajoituksia pelkistä maankuoren paksuuden ja nykyisen maankohoamisen kartoista. Menetelmässä 2 valittiin tarkennetusta pisteistöstä Suomen ja Ruotsin Selkämeren rannikoilta osajoukkoja, joiden kunkin ajoituksista ja korkeusasemista ratkaistiin maankohoamisen parametreja. Parametrien arvojen jakaumista tehtiin karttoja. Hitauskertoimen Bs arvot ovat keskim. 6 % suurempia kuin v. 2001 arvioidut, mutta Olkiluodolle 10 % pienempiä. Aiemmin ratkaistujen alueiden kanssa interpoloiden saatiin Olkiluodolle maankohoamista vuonna 12000 jKr. 2,8 m (7 %) vähemmän kuin aiemman mallin tulosten perusteella. Derivaattamenetelmän perusteella Olkiluodon maannousu vuonna 12000 jKr. on vain 0,5 m suurempi kuin aiempien tulosten perus- teella. Sekä rannansiirtymiskäyrä- että derivaattamenetelmän mukaan As:llä on paikallinen maksimi Pohjanlahdelta koilliseen. As-jakauman maksimin pohjoisosa siirtyi edellisiin tuloksiin verrattuna idemmäksi, samoin Bs:n jakauman maksimi leveni. Olkiluodolle on hidasta maankohoamista jäljellä derivaattamenetelmien mukaan 91,5– 95,5 m tai rannansiirtymiskäyrämenetelmän perusteella 83,8 m. Mallinnuksen epävarmuuksiin kuuluvat muun muassa maankuoren ominaisuudet ja merenpinnan nousumalli. Maankohoamisen nopean komponentin tarkentamista sivut- tiin uudelleenkalibroinnin ja Ancylus-järven tasokorjauksen kautta. Olisi hyödyllistä mm. ratkaista parametreja Fennoskandian muissakin kohteissa IntCal04-menetelmällä ja Påsse & Anderssonin vuonna 2005 esittämillä mutta tarkistetuilla malleilla. Tarken- nusta saataisiin etenkin nopean komponentin maksimin ajankohtaan (Tf). Nopea komponentti liittyy erityisesti aikaan jolloin maankuoren liikkeet olivat todennäköisiä. Tätä tai kallioperän eheyttä ei tutkittu. Tektonisten linjojen rajaamat lohkot toden- näköisesti liikkuvat eri tavalla. Tässä alueellisen tason tarkastelussa liikkeitä ei määri- telty, mutta ne vaikuttavat pitkällä aikavälillä samanlaisilta. Avainsanat: glasiaali-isostasia, maankohoaminen, maannouseminen, postglasiaalinen muodonpalautusilmiö, rannansiirtyminen, kuroutuminen, rannankorkeuden indeksi- piste, 14C, Selkämeri, eustasia, eustaattinen nousu, GIS, paleomaantiede ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study has been carried out by Pöyry Environment Oy according to a Posiva Oy research contract. On behalf of Posiva, the study was patiently and encouragingly supervised by Ari T. K. Ikonen. The authors would like to thank him and all the experts involved, of whom many are mentioned in the text. The study is largely based on the extensive work of Associate Professor Tore Påsse and late Leif Andersson, Ph.Lic., who together developed the models. Dr. Arto Miettinen from the Norwegian Polar Institute has reviewed the report and provided useful comments. Dr. Irmeli Vuorela provided comments on the usefulness of the samples. Dr. Högne Jungner and many others helped to interpret if the δ13C corrections had been carried out or not. Dr. Markku Oinonen from the Dating Laboratory of the University of Helsinki kindly offered to conduct the δ13C corrections of the old Hel- samples and to calculate the 1σ and 2σ lower and upper limits of the datings’ calibrations. Prof. Markku Poutanen, Dr. Jaakko Mäkinen and senior researcher Pekka Lehmuskoski, M.Sc., from the Finnish Geodetic Institute helped by providing the latest information on the current apparent land uplift and isostatic uplift and on the elevation systems. Prof. Veli-Pekka Salonen, Helsinki University, and geophysicist Eero Heikkinen, Pöyry Environment Oy, also made useful comments. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT TIIVISTELMÄ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 7 1.1 Background ........................................................................................... 7 1.2 Objectives ............................................................................................ 10 1.3 Organisation of the report ...................................................................
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