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Chaillot Paper Nº 68 Chaillot Paper March 2004 n°68 One year on: lessons from Iraq R. Asmus, C. Bertram, C. Bildt, E. Brimmer, M. Dassu, R. de Wijk, J. Dobbins, W. Drozdiak, N. Gnesotto, P. H. Gordon, C. Grant, G. Gustenau, P. Hassner, J. Hulsman, A. Lejins, C. McArdle Kelleher, A. Moravcsik, J. Onyszkiewicz, J. Sedivy, N. Serra and A. Vasconcelos Edited by G. Lindstrom and B. Schmitt 68--Cover-3RD.qxd 15/03/2004 14:50 Page 3 Cha n°67 n°66 In January 2002 the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) beca- me an autonomous Paris-based agency of the European n°65 Union. Following an EU Council Joint Action of 20 July 2001, it is now an integral part of the new structures that will support the further development of the CFSP/ESDP. The Institute’s core mission is to provide n°64 analyses and recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of the European security and defence policy. In carrying out that mission, it also n°63 acts as an interface between European experts and decision-makers at all levels. n°62 Chaillot Papers are monographs on topical questions n°61 written either by a member of the ISS research team or by outside authors chosen and commissioned by the Institute. Early drafts are normally discussed at a semi- n°60 nar or study group of experts convened by the Institute and publication indicates that the paper is considered n°59 by the ISS as a useful and authoritative contribution to the debate on CFSP/ESDP. Responsibility for the views n°58 expressed in them lies exclusively with authors. Chaillot Papers are also accessible via the Institute’s Website: n°57 www.iss-eu.org n°56 n°55 n°54 n°53 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 1 Chaillot Paper March 2004 n°68 One year on: lessons from Iraq Ron Asmus, Christoph Bertram, Carl Bildt, Esther Brimmer, Marta Dassu, Rob de Wijk, James Dobbins, William Drozdiak, Nicole Gnesotto, Philip H. Gordon, Charles Grant, Gustav Gustenau, Pierre Hassner, John Hulsman, Atis Lejins, Catherine McArdle Kelleher, Andrew Moravcsik, Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Jiri Sedivy, Narcis Serra and Alvaro Vasconcelos edited by Gustav Lindstrom and Burkard Schmitt Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 2 Institute for Security Studies European Union Paris Director: Nicole Gnesotto © EU Institute for Security Studies 2004. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for Security Studies. ISSN 1017-7566 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Alençon (France) by l’Alençonnaise d’Impressions. Graphic design by Claire Mabille (Paris). 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 3 Contents n°68 March 2004 Preface Nicole Gnesotto 7 Introduction Gustav Lindstrom 9 Part I — European views 1 Christoph Bertram 13 2 Carl Bildt 21 3 Marta Dassu 29 4 Rob de Wijk 41 5 Nicole Gnesotto 51 6 Charles Grant 61 7 Gustav Gustenau 71 8 Pierre Hassner 79 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 4 Contents 9 Atis Lejins 87 10 Janusz Onyszkiewicz 95 11 Jiri Sedivy 103 12 Narcis Serra 113 13 Alvaro Vasconcelos 121 Part II — American views 14 Ron Asmus 131 15 Esther Brimmer 139 16 James Dobbins 147 17 William Drozdiak 153 18 Philip H. Gordon 161 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 5 Contents 19 John Hulsman 169 20 Catherine McArdle Kelleher 177 21 Andrew Moravcsik 185 a Annexes 195 • About the authors 195 • Abbreviations 199 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 6 One year on: lessons from Iraq 6 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 7 Preface Nicole Gnesotto e 19 mars 2003, les Etats-Unis lançaient les premières opéra- tions militaires sur Bagdad. Depuis Suez, jamais intervention L extérieure n’avait suscité une telle fracture de la communauté internationale et atlantique, le divorce entre Etats se doublant de cli- vages tout aussi massifs entre les opinions publiques et la plupart de leurs dirigeants. Un an après, seule la question des armes de destruction massive irakiennes semble résolue : de l’aveu même du chef des inspections américaines, il n’y en avait pas. Toutes les autres questions – sur la pacification et l’avenir démocratique de l’Irak, les conditions d’une stabilisation régionale, le processus de paix israélo-palestinien, le ter- rorisme international, le rôle des Nations unies, la légitimité de l’usage de la force, les relations entre l’éthique et le stratégique, les conditions d’un partenariat euro-américain, etc. – restent ouvertes, mais tenues prudemment à distance. Entre Européens et Américains, la tendance politique est en effet désormais à l’apaisement et le discours général à la reconstruction : d’un Etat irakien souverain et pacifié, d’un partena- riat euro-américain apaisé, d’une nouvelle relation avec l’ensemble de la région du Golfe et du Moyen-Orient. En mars 2004, tirer les leçons de la guerre s’avère donc un exercice doublement difficile : d’abord parce qu’une année de recul est large- ment insuffisante pour évaluer l’impact structurel de la décision d’in- tervention américaine. Mutatis mutandis, presque trois ans après le renversement des Talibans en Afghanistan, le bilan demeure on ne peut plus ambigu. Ensuite, parce que le bilan varie sensiblement selon l’axe de référence – la réalité du terrain, l’idéologie, les principes d’ac- tion, les perceptions publiques – sur lequel on se situe. Ce Cahier de Chaillot, édité par Burkard Schmitt et Gustav Lind- strom, dresse toutefois une photographie passionnante de l’état des réflexions stratégiques, en Europe comme aux Etats-Unis, un an après le début de la guerre. Nous avons sollicité une vingtaine de personna- lités, parmi les plus représentatives de la communauté stratégique euro-américaine. Toutes avaient été très impliquées, dans leur propre pays mais également dans le débat international, dans l’énorme 7 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 8 Preface polémique transatlantique suscitée dès l’origine par la crise irakienne. Leurs bilans comparés laissent aujourd’hui, à de très rares exceptions près, une surprenante impression de convergences : sur les failles de l’unilatéralisme, sur le besoin d’ONU, sur la complexité du phénomène terroriste, sur les limites de la puissance militaire à l’ère de la mondia- lisation, sur la nécessité et les vertus d’un partenariat équitable. Comme si l’un des effets majeurs de la guerre en Irak avait été de met- tre en lumière les vulnérabilités propres de l’Union et de l’Amérique : la première impuissante parce que trop divisée, la seconde moins puis- sante parce que trop souveraine. Paris, mars 2004 8 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 9 One year on: Introduction lessons from Iraq Gustav Lindstrom The war on Iraq was without any doubt the main international event in the security arena in 2003. In 2004, the ramifications of the war are taking centre stage as policy-makers gauge the future of Iraq, the Middle East, transatlantic relations and the role of inter- national organisations. This Chaillot Paper takes stock of the consequences of the war in Iraq one year after the initiation of the military campaign in March 2003. Rather than provide a definitive or conclusive verdict on the implications of the war, its objective is to offer a number of viewpoints concerning developments in its aftermath. Given the divergences that the war created, not only between the United States and Europe but also within the EU, we invited a wide spec- trum of authors to participate in this project in order to get as rep- resentative a picture as possible. To do so, twenty-one authors from Europe and the United States were asked to respond to five questions covering different aspects of international relations. Respondents were asked to give their views on the consequences of the war in Iraq on: Z the war on terrorism; Z the Greater Middle East; Z the European Union’s role as a global actor; Z transatlantic relations; Z the international system. All authors, irrespective of nationality or background, were given the same guidance questions so as to facilitate the compari- son of viewpoints across all five dimensions. We asked that the contributions be kept short, placing emphasis on the identifica- tion of the most important trends rather than detailed accounts of events. To ensure that individual opinions and approaches were not too constrained by the format, the editing process was kept to a minimum. 9 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 10 One year on: lessons from Iraq The net result is a vivid and complex picture of the state of international affairs, providing a unique snapshot of develop- ments post-Iraq – including perceptions of their intended and unintended consequences. This paper should be of interest to analysts, academics, and policy-makers concerned with international relations. It should also interest individuals following developments in key functional areas such as terrorism or transatlantic relations. For those specifically interested in the state of transatlantic relations, the Institute recently covered that dimension in its transatlantic book Shift or rift. Assessing US-EU relations after Iraq (November 2003). 10 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 11 One year on: lessons from Iraq I Part I European views 11 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 12 68-Europeans.qxd 15/03/2004 14:39 Page 13 One year on: lessons from Iraq Christoph Bertram 1 Apart from the fall of Saddam Hussein, America’s war against Iraq and the subsequent occupation produced none of the results in the region promised by those who waged it – and the opposite of what they wanted in America’s relations to allies, alliances and interna- tional institutions.
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