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US Strategies for Regional Security US Strategies for Regional Security Report of the 42nd Strategy for Peace Conference Edited by Michael Kraig and James Henderson Convened at Airlie Conference Center,Warrenton, Virginia October 25-27, 2001 Preface trategy for Peace, the Stanley Foundation’s US foreign policy conference, annually assembles a panel of experts from the public and private sectors to assess specific policy Sissues and to recommend future direction. The eighty-seven participants who met at Airlie Center were drawn together in four concurrent round-table discussions to examine the current state of relations and recommend elements of a strategy for peace. All sessions were informal and off the record. In preparing this document following the confer- ence, the rapporteurs tried to convey the areas of consensus and disagreement and the conclu- sions of the discussion. It contains her or his interpretation of the proceeding and is not merely a descriptive, chronological account. The participants neither reviewed nor approved the reports. Therefore, it should not be assumed that every participant subscribes to all recommendations, observations, and conclusions. Production: Amy Bakke, Loren Keller, Margo Schneider, and Eileen Schurk Table of Contents US Strategies for Regional Security Introduction and Summary ................................................................................5 Europe Security in a Europe “Whole and Free”: Staying the Course ................................10 Chair’s Report by Christopher J. Makins, The Atlantic Council of the United States Strategies for European Security ..............................................................................22 Klaus Becher, International Institute for Strategic Studies Building a Euro-Atlantic Community: Europe and the States in 2010 ................27 Simon Serfaty, Center for Strategic & International Studies Participant List for Europe Working Group Discussions ......................................36 Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia Making Headway on the Korean Peninsula..............................................................40 Chair’s Report by Andrew C. Scobell, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia Security: US Policy Options..............54 Samuel S. Kim, Columbia University Korean Peninsula Security: A South Korean View of US Foreign Policy and Defense Strategies ................................................................................................65 Chung-in Moon, Yonsei University Participant List for Korean Peninsula Working Group Discussions ....................76 Middle East and Persian Gulf Middle East Security in the Near and Long Term ..................................................80 Chair’s Report by Geoffrey Kemp, The Nixon Center The United States and De Facto Nuclear Weapon States: A Post-September 11 Perspective ..............................................................................88 Avner Cohen, University of Maryland School of Public Affairs Marvin M. Miller, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Nuclear Temptations: The Middle East as a Case Study ......................................104 Ibrahim A. Karawan, The University of Utah Participant List for Middle East Working Group Discussions ............................109 South Asia After the Attacks: India-Pakistan Relations and US Policy Toward the Subcontinent After September 11 ....................................................................112 Chair’s Report by Lee A. Feinstein, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and The German Marshall Fund of the United States Enduring Features in the South Asian Neighborhood: PolicyOptions for the United States After September 11......................................123 James C. Clad, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Cambridge Energy Research Associates The South Asian Nuclear Conundrum: US Interests and Choices ......................133 Lewis A. Dunn, Science Applications International Corporation Securing Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Complex....................................................144 David Albright, Institute for Science and International Security Participant List for South Asia Working Group Discussions ..............................155 Opening Remarks ............................................................................................157 Richard H. Stanley, The Stanley Foundation The Stanley Foundation Conference Staff ....................................................162 The Stanley Foundation ..................................................................................163 Introduction and Summary By Michael Kraig and James Henderson Program Officers, The Stanley Foundation US Strategies for Regional Security For the 2001 Strategy for Peace Conference, the Stanley Foundation invited US officials and policy experts to consider US foreign policy and defense strategies for achieving regional secu- rity in four major areas of the world: Europe; the Middle East and Persian Gulf; South Asia; and within Northeast Asia, the Korean peninsula. Participants were asked to view the strategic, economic, and political dynamics of individual regions in their entirety. For each separate work- ing group, two to three participants were asked prior to the conference to author “thought- pieces” or short policy briefs on US foreign policy options. These pieces served as a primer for discussion and are reprinted in their entirety within this report. The chair of each working group was then asked to write their own short reports synthesizing, analyzing, and summarizing both the working group discussions and the commissioned briefs. Working group discussions at Airlie House were informal and off the record. Therefore, the primary policy recommendations listed at the beginning of each chair’s report in the follow- ing sections of this publication should be viewed as the chair’s own interpretations of the substance of discussions. Why a Focus on Regions? It may seem that the new realities of transnational terrorism and the global “war on terror” require a purely global focus in conceptualizing US foreign and security policies over the long term. Alternately, many experts might point to the necessity of shoring up US bilateral relations with key potential allies, especially European allies and individual developing countries from these four regions. Both the global and the bilateral points of view are necessary in any compre- hensive assessment of US policy options. However, one only has to consider the international events of the first post-Cold War decade to find compelling reasons not to abandon a broad regional outlook as a necessary component of national security strategy: • Yugoslavia’s disintegration and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophes were initially not treat- ed as strategic interests for the United States. However, the potential for instability spreading to regional neighbors threatened the values, political principles, and military credibility of the North American Trade Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU). • Regional differences have repeatedly challenged the norms and goals of global nonprolifera- tion regimes. The threat environments of the Middle East, South Asia, and the Korean penin- sula have required supplementary strategies for preventing the spread of missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). • The Persian Gulf region—particularly Iraq’s relationships with its neighbors—and the dis- pute between Israel and Palestine constitute the two primary unresolved regional problems that are fueling the Al Qaeda-related transnational terrorist cells in more than 60 countries around the wo r l d . Successful resolution of these diverse national security challenges will require that the United States deal with the regional issues involved, align regional initiatives with global concerns and regimes, and use US bilateral relations to leverage solutions. In this regard, sound regional secu- rity frameworks can provide essential economic, political, and military foundations for making global security initiatives workable. The primary substantive focus of each separate working group, and the associated findings and policy recommendations, are briefly outlined below. A more complete and detailed set of rec- ommendations can be seen at the beginning of each chair’s report. European Security The attacks of September 11 have renewed the centrality of the Euro-Atlantic partnership between the United States and Europe and made clear that threats to European security will increasingly come from unstable states and regions bordering Europe. Special attention was focused on the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean, and the Near East. Key findings and recommendations were: • The Euro-Atlantic partnership and transatlantic community are still central components of US and regional security after September 11. • Europe and the United States should work to further integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic system, a goal now made easier by President Putin’s recent policies. • The primary powers and responsibilities of the EU and NATO should not be confused with each other, and membership should not be viewed as automatic. Neither the EU nor NATO is a full-service institution. • In the Balkans, the United States and its European allies have little choice but to carry on with their present policies. Continued involvement by both the United States and the EU is critical to future progress and stability in the region. • Turkey remains simultaneously
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