P R E FA C E It has been our privilege to lead a unique effort over the past three years, one that has been rooted in the spirit of Andrew Carnegie’s quest for peace in the early part of the twentieth century. Carnegie, an authentic pioneer in both industry and philanthropy, searched for and sought to estab- lish conditions and institutions conducive to durable peace. For this purpose he created four founda- tions, three peace palaces, and made many proposals for arbitration of international disputes, courts of various kinds—including the World Court—and an international police force. He provided ideas, buildings, and money for social action to overcome the perennial scourge of war. It was in this spirit that the Board of Trustees of Carnegie Corporation of New York created the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict in 1994. The Commission—16 international leaders and scholars with long experience and path- breaking accomplishments in conflict prevention and conflict resolution—deliberately sought a worldwide, long-term view and faced many fundamental issues of human conflict in all their com- plexity. The Commission sponsored research by leading scholars and policymakers and is dissemi- nating the products of this work in a series of reports, background papers, and books. This final report will be disseminated throughout the world as a stimulus to preventive policies and actions at the highest levels of governments and international organizations. We have worked closely as cochairs with Executive Director Jane Holl and her dedicated staff, who managed an enormous number of projects and meetings. The Commission also has a dis- tinguished international Advisory Council of 42 eminent practitioners and scholars who have con- tributed their thoughtful advice. Altogether, the contributions of Commissioners, staff, and advisors have been immense, and we will continue to draw on these resources in the two years of follow-up to the Commission’s work. It is particularly interesting and relevant that many Commissioners have tried to help resolve very bitter conflicts, often at a late stage. We challenged ourselves in this enterprise to ask what might have been done at an early stage to avert mass violence and achieve a just outcome. These are very hard problems. If it were otherwise, prevention would have gained ascendancy long ago. Prevention is based on long-range foresight, anticipation, and action. In this effort, the Commission used the best available knowledge to discern the major risk factors that increase the likelihood of mass violence. We then examined what steps might be taken to counteract or avoid the risk factors, especially through changes in the behavior of leaders and their constituencies. We focused attention on the pivotal institutions that can shape and support constructive behavior while avoiding the risk factors and dangerous directions. Thus, in seeking to prevent the deadly conflicts xi leading to mass violence, we explored ways in torically new and very threatening is the which governments, intergovernmental organi- destructive power of our weaponry and its zations, and the institutions of civil society ongoing worldwide proliferation. Also new is could help to build favorable conditions in the technology that permits rapid, vivid, widely which different human groups can learn to live broadcast justification for violence. This com- together amicably. The application of such pre- bination is what will make the world of the vention concepts in the public health sphere is next century so dangerous. In such a world, f a m i l i a r, for example, in the provision of human conflict is a subject that deserves the immunizations through the combined efforts of most careful and searching inquiry. It is a sub- institutions of scientific research, health care, ject par excellence for fresh thinking and pub- and education. We have found a similar view of lic understanding. the prevention process useful in this arena of All these considerations are made international conflict. The Commission had a more complex by the rapid and drastic world vision of a worldwide system of conflict pre- transformation in which we are living as the vention. twentieth century draws to a close. The power Peace and equitable development will of technological advance and global economic require not only effective institutions, but also integration to change social conditions is a crit- greater understanding and respect for diff e r- ical issue for the conflict agenda. The eco- ences within and across national boundaries. nomic and social changes fostered by global We humans do not have the luxury any longer technological developments in information and of indulging our prejudices and ethnocentrism. telecommunication—combined with parallel They are anachronisms of our ancient past. The developments in research and development on worldwide historical record is full of hateful space, energ y, materials, and biotechnology— and destructive behavior based on religious, are likely to be profound and pervasive. racial, political, ideological, and other distinc- H i s t o r i c a l l y, technological advances tions—holy wars of one sort or another. Wi l l have resulted in social and economic transfor- such behavior in the next century be expressed mations on a vast scale. This is especially with weapons of mass destruction? If we can- likely when fundamental new technologies are not learn to accommodate each other respect- unfolding across the entire frontier of scientific fully in the twenty-first century, we could and engineering research and are rapidly dis- destroy each other at such a rate that humanity seminated throughout the world. The impact will have little to cherish. over the long term has been positive. Along the The human species has a virtuoso w a y, there have been massive dislocations. In capacity for making harsh distinctions between this context, it is worth recalling the severe dis- groups and for justifying violence on whatever ruptions of the industrial revolution; they had scale the technology of the time permits. It is much to do with the emergence of Communism disturbing that fanatical behavior has a way and fascism, especially the Nazi catastrophe. of recurring dangerously across time and The contemporary world transforma- locations. Such behavior is old, but what is his- tion, with all its intense pressures and unfore- seen consequences, tends to pull people toward strongly supportive groups. These groups, in xii PREVENTING DEADLY CONFLICT turn, particularly with charismatic, inflamma- avoiding escalation in a crisis, but also of creat- tory leadership, may easily become harsh, sep- ing a durable basis for peaceful alternatives. In aratist, and depreciatory toward others. A the long run, we can be most successful in pre- deadly combination of severe social stress and venting ethnic, religious, and international wars distinctively hateful, fanatical leadership can by going beyond ways to avert immediate con- produce mass killing, even genocide. Such frontation between hostile groups to promote conditions occur again and again. The seduc- democracy, market economies, and the creation tive justifications for hideous atrocities can be of civil institutions that protect human rights. provided to fill in the murderous blanks, as Effective preventive strategies rest on three ori- they were by Hitler, Stalin, and Pol Pot. entations: early responses to signs of trouble; a Indeed, they can be spread more efficiently and comprehensive, forward-looking approach to vividly than ever before by advanced telecom- counteract the risk factors that trigger violent munications. Such intergroup tensions may conflict; and an extended effort to resolve the readily be exacerbated by deteriorating eco- underlying causes of violence. All of these are nomic conditions, erosion of social norms, or considered in the Commission’s work. mass migration. Hateful attitudes may be The recommendations of this report directed either toward outsiders or minorities in are addressed to leaders and governments as one’s own country—or both. well as many elements of the international Now there are great new worldwide c o m m u n i t y, among them the democracies, the opportunities and profound stresses that will United Nations, regional organizations, the a ffect human development in ways hard to business community, the global scientific com- foresee. Surely there is no basis for compla- m u n i t y, educational and religious institutions, c e n c y. The frustrations and uncertainties in a the media, and nongovernmental organizations. complex, rapidly changing world can trigger Only with the active participation of all these scapegoating of highly visible groups—e.g., groups can we move toward the vision of an minorities, immigrants, or government off i- international system for preventing deadly con- cials—who then become targets of irrational, flict. What we seek is a way of thinking that hateful, or extremist responses. These chal- becomes pervasive in many institutions and in lenges have serious implications for societies public understanding. throughout the world. It is crucial to seek fac- As we examined the relevant institu- tual and analytical bases for policies and prac- tions, we found them all to be modest in pre- tices that could help us to cope with such ventive achievements and not strongly oriented problems and take advantage of the immense, to this great mission. Indeed, several have at emerging opportunities in an equitable way. times done more harm than good in cultivating In view of these momentous develop- hatred and inciting violence. Yet the people of ments, the recent rash of “internal” wars and the world cannot let that record stand. T h e genocides, and the wide scope of our mandate, stakes are simply becoming too high, the dan- the Commission has developed a comprehen- gers in the next century too great. So we have sive approach to preventing deadly conflict. In sought ways to strengthen each actor for pre- our view, prevention consists not only of vention, to find good examples (even if rare), and to identify the best practices through which P R E F A C E xiii their potential could be fulfilled.