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Issue No.3 Mar 2020 Technology Review Now is an Opportunity for the Era of Flying Car Mobility Insight Technology Review Kwangki Jeon Now is an Opportunity for Convergence Technology R&D Division the Era of Flying Car Executive Summary v There is increasing interest in flying cars to resolve the problems of traffic congestion and the saturation of means of ground transportation in supercities, and to improve mobility and the quality of life ⚫ In 2030, the number of supercities with more than 10 million population will be increased to 43, and over 5 billion people, more than 60% of the world population, are expected to live in those supercities ⚫ A flying car is a next-generation means of transportation that can travel on the roads and in the sky, drastically improving mobility in urban areas v Recently, large car makers and airplane companies having mass production capabilities and capital strength have entered into the flying car industry and initiated R&D for commercialization ⚫ The companies developing flying cars prefer e-VTOL (electric powered vertical takeoff and landing) and expect that commercialization will be accomplished in 2023 to 2030 ⚫ Morgan Stanley forecasts that the flying car market will drastically increase to 332.1 billion USD (about 385 trillion KRW) in 2030 and 1 trillion 473.9 billion USD (about 1 quadrillion 709 trillion KRW) in 2040 v Cooperation among industry, university, and government-funded research institutes in the fields of vehicles and aviation is required to foster the flying car industry, which is expected to grow rapidly, and to secure competitiveness in the industry early ⚫ The government departments should closely cooperate with each other to improve the laws and systems for fostering the new industry of flying cars and to increase the support for the industry ⚫ A system for evaluating the performance, safety, and reliability should be established early to perform the evaluation in each of the development stages, including the flying car design, essential components and systems development, and complete flying car development Mobility Insight, March 2020, Vol. 3 1 Mobility Insight Technology Review With increasing demand for improving the urban mobility and the quality of life, a new industry of 'flying cars' is emerging to provide a future means of transportation ⚫ In 2030, the number of supercities with more than 10 million population will be increased to 43, and over 5 billion people, more than 60% of the world population, are expected to live in those supercities ⚫ There is increasing demand for new future-oriented mobility to resolve the problems of traffic congestion and the saturation of means of ground transportation in supercities, and to improve the quality of life < Forecast of Megacities in 2030 Worldwide (Unit: million) > 1990 2018 2030 Item Population Ratio Population Ratio Population Ratio Urban 2,290 43.0% 4,220 55.3% 5,167 60.4% Over 10 million 153 2.9% 529 6.9% 752 8.8% population Over 1 million 776 14.6% 1,780 23.3% 2,383 27.8% population Rural 3,041 57.0% 3,413 44.7% 3,384 39.6% Total 5,331 100.0% 7,633 100.0% 8,551 100.0% * Source: World Urbanization Prospects (The 2018 Revision) ⚫ Morgan Stanley forecasts that the flying car market will drastically increase to 332.1 billion USD (about 385 trillion KRW) in 2030 and 1 trillion 473.9 billion USD (about 1 quadrillion 709 trillion KRW) in 2040 2 Mobility Insight, March 2020, Vol. 3 Mobility Insight Technology Review <Prospect of Flying Car (Urban Air Mobility, UAM) Market> * Source: Morgan Stanley Research A flying car refers to an automobile that can travel both on roads and in the sky ⚫ A flying car means an automobile that can run on the roads and fly in the air. In a broad sense, a flying car refers to a next-generation means of transportation having the functions of a car and an airplane ⚫ A flying car is also called a Personal Air Vehicle (PAV), Urban Air Mobility (UAM), Air Taxi, and manned drone Flying cars have various forms depending on the driving method and the takeoff and landing methods ⚫ Flying cars are classified into single mode (flying) and dual mode (flying+driving) flying cars depending on the driving method, and into Conventional Takeoff and Landing (CTOL), Short Takeoff and Landing (STOL), and Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) depending on the takeoff and landing methods ⚫ Flying cars are classified into internal combustion engine, battery power, and fuel cell types depending on the driving energy, and into fixed-wing, rotary-wing and multicopter* types depending on the wing shape * A multicopter refers to a rotary-wing flying car that has two or more rotors (rotary wings) Mobility Insight, March 2020, Vol. 3 3 Mobility Insight Technology Review <Classifications of Flying Cars and Representative Examples> Classification Features Representative Examples - Capable of flying only, like Ehang 216, Workhorse conventional airplanes Single Mode SureFly, Volocopter - Requires complementary (flying) Volocity, Alakai Skai means of ground Uber Elevate, Airbus Vahana Driving transportation Method - Combination of a car and an Terrafugia Transition, Pal-V Dual Mode airplane Liberty, AeroMobile 4.0/5.0, (flying+driving) - Capable of both running on AirBus Pob.Up Next, Toyota roads and flying in the sky SkyDrive CTOL - Takeoff and landing on a (Conventional conventional runway - Takeoff and - Having fixed-wings of Landing) airplane - Capable of short takeoff and STOL Takeoff landing with folded wings (Short Takeoff Pal-V Liberty, AeroMobile 4.0 and - Requires runway of about 80 and Landing) Landing m Methods Terrafugia Transition, Ehang - Capable of vertical takeoff 216, Workhorse SureFly, VTOL and landing without a AeroMobile 5.0, Volocopter (Vertical Takeoff runway Volocity, Alakai Skai, Audi and Landing) - Capable of high-speed flying Pop.Up Next, Toyota immediately after elevation SkyDrive 4 Mobility Insight, March 2020, Vol. 3 Mobility Insight Technology Review Key companies in the world are competitively presenting prototypes and application models of flying cars, and publishing commercialization plans to lead the industry ➊ Trend of Flying Car Development in US ⚫ Uber: Uber is developing 'Elevate,' which is a model for Uber Air (flying taxi) service, and has a plan to commercialize the service in 2023 ⚫ Alakai: Alakai is an aviation start-up that opened in 2019. 'Skai,' which is the world's first 5-passenger, unmanned, single-mode flying car based on a hydrogen fuel cell < Uber ‘Elevate’ and Alakai ‘Skai’ > * Source: Uber and Alakai ➋ Trend of Flying Car Development in EU ⚫ AeroMobile: AeroMobile opened ‘AeroMobile 5.0 VTOL,’ which is a 4-passenger, electric power-driven, VTOL, dual mode flying car. AeroMobile's goal is to release it in 2025 ⚫ Audi: Audi displayed in the 2018 Geneva International Motor Show 'Pop.Up Next,' which is a module-separable, dual mode concept flying car, and is now developing the model < AeroMobile 5.0 VTOL and Audi ‘Pop.Up Next’ > * Source: AeroMobile and Audi Mobility Insight, March 2020, Vol. 3 5 Mobility Insight Technology Review ➌ Trend of Flying Car Development in Japan and China ⚫ Toyota: Toyota has invested 43 million JPY to Cativator (2019) and 394 million USD to Joby Aviation (2020) to develop flying cars ⚫ Geely Auto: Geely Auto took over Terrafugia, which is a US company that developed in 2017 'Transition,' a 2-passenger dual mode flying car. Geely Auto is now evolving to a mobility company <Flying Car Models Developed by Toyota-Joby Aviation and Geely-Terrafugia> * Source : Toyota-Joby Aviation and Geely-Terrafugia ➍ Trend of Flying Car Development in Korea ⚫ Hyundai Motor Company: Hyundai created in September 2019 a new organization for the development of a flying car (UAM), and opened at the CES 2020 'S-A1,' a flying car concept model prepared in cooperation with Uber ⚫ Hanwha Systems: Hanwha Systems entered into the flying car industry (Air Taxi) in July 2019 and acquired 30% stakes in Overair, a US company, in January 2020 at the price of about 30 billion KRW ⚫ Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI): KARI is developing through a national development project 'OPPAV,' which is a 1-passenger, VTOL, single mode flying car (budget: 44.8 billion KRW; development period: 2019 to 2023) 6 Mobility Insight, March 2020, Vol. 3 Mobility Insight Technology Review < Hyundai's flying car model ‘S-A1’ and Hanwha Systems-Overair's ‘Butterfly’ > * Source: Hyundai Motor Company and Hanwha Systems-Overair < Trend of Flying Car Development in Korea and Other Countries > ⚫ Before 2015, flying cars were developed and tested mainly by some innovative start-ups ⚫ Since 2015, large car manufacturers, airplane manufacturers, and IT companies having manufacturing capabilities and capital strength have positively entered into the development of future-oriented high value-added flying cars and the business of Air Taxi service ⚫ Recently, the flying car companies prefer the 'e-VTOL' type, which causes less noise and has an advantage in urban mobility, and have plans to commercialize flying cars in 2023 to 2030 Securing original technologies for core components and systems is necessary to develop flying cars that can safely fly in urban areas as environment-friendly mobility ➊ Development of high-safety, high-output, high-energy density, and high-discharge rate battery pack ∎ The energy density of the currently available battery packs for EVs is about 150 to 180 Wh/kg. Future flying cars will require an energy density of 230 Wh/kg or higher ➋ Development of high-efficiency, ultra-light, low-noise electric propulsion system ∎ Future urban flying cars require a 150 kW high-torque lightweight motor, a high-output motor control inverter, and a 500 kg-thrust, high-performance, low-noise prop-rotor ➌ Development near-integrity safety system similar to large-sized civilian aircraft ∎ Multiple propellers should be used to prevent a fall even when one or two of them is out of order.
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