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Elevating the Future of Mobility Passenger Drones and Flying Cars Elevating the Future of Mobility

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Elevating the Future of Mobility Passenger Drones and Flying Cars Elevating the Future of Mobility Part of a Deloitte series on the future of mobility Elevating the future of mobility Passenger drones and flying cars Elevating the future of mobility The Deloitte US Firms provide industry-leading consulting, tax, advisory, and audit services to many of the world’s most admired brands, including 80 percent of the Fortune 500. Our peo- ple work across more than 20 industry sectors with one purpose: to deliver measurable, lasting results. Deloitte offers a suite of services to help clients tackle challenges related to the future of mobility, including setting strategic direction, planning operating models, and implementing new operations and capabilities. Our wide array of expertise allows us to become a true partner throughout an organization’s comprehensive, multidimensional journey of transformation. Passenger drones and flying cars CONTENTS Introduction | 2 Passenger drones and flying cars are nearing commercial availability | 3 Challenges to taking flight | 7 Disrupting mobility—again | 10 Moving to the skies | 12 Endnotes | 13 1 Elevating the future of mobility Introduction “Mark my words. A combination of airplane and motorcar is coming. You may smile. But it will come.” — Henry Ford, 19401 CENTURY ago, aviation pioneer Glenn Cur- grips with these changes to terrestrial mobility, ad- tiss debuted the Autoplane, a three-seat car- vances in flying cars could add, literally, an entirely A cum-aircraft with removable wings.2 Ever new dimension to an already complex landscape. since, automobile and aviation enthusiasts have While we are early in this journey, market seg- been dreaming of “flying cars.” Flying can replace ments seem to be forming, some early entrants are driving in cities around the globe, saving people’s experimenting, regulations are being formulated, time as trips that take hours on the ground can be and technology is developing. This study looks at reduced to minutes in the air, improving productivi- the emerging market for personal mobility, explor- ty and quality of life. After decades of failed projects ing both the current state of the technology—includ- and false starts, we may now be on the threshold of ing the rapid advances made in recent years—as well this vision becoming a practical reality. as the many hurdles that remain before flying cars This new class of vehicles is emerging in the midst become widely adopted. It also examines impor- of an already dramatic transformation in the way tant questions related to the regulatory framework people and goods move around. Driven by a series and supporting infrastructure. Finally, the study of technological and social trends, from ridesharing explores how widespread use of passenger drones and bikesharing to electric and autonomous vehicles could reshape urban mobility, and suggests some and beyond, the future of mobility could ultimately key steps players in aerospace and other industries create a more integrated transportation system that can do now to prepare for this exciting possibility, is faster, cheaper, cleaner, and safer than today’s.3 as well as what disruptions to possibly expect. Even as players across a host of industries come to This study’s findings are based on both primary and secondary research. As part of our research, we interviewed subject matter experts and senior executives at leading aerospace and automotive companies as well as start-ups that are involved in the development of passenger drones and flying cars. 2 Passenger drones and flying cars Passenger drones and flying cars are nearing commercial availability HE technology and product development of • Traditional flying cars: A traditional flying passenger drones and traditional flying cars car would be a vehicle where the driver/pilot Tseem to be swiftly progressing. These vehicle can drive the vehicle in its car configuration to concepts have been under development since the an airport, reconfigure the vehicle to an airplane 1980s, and various prototypes already exist, with mode, and then fly to a destination airport. It is the majority capable of vertical takeoff and landing designed to carry people and fly medium to long (VTOL). A VTOL vehicle is an aircraft that takes off, distances (50 to 200 miles). Currently, it would hovers, and lands vertically and does not require need to be operated by a licensed pilot, but it runways. For this study, our definition of VTOL could be made fully autonomous and pilotless/ excludes any type of helicopter. While traditional driverless over time. In the near future, flying helicopters have had this capability since their in- cars are likely to become VTOL capable. ception, most are considered highly energy inef- • Revolutionary vehicles: Revolutionary ve- ficient, seeming to prevent large-scale operations. hicles, which are expected to be a combination Many companies today are instead focusing on of passenger drone and traditional flying car, electric or hybrid-electric designs with VTOL capa- would be fully autonomous vehicles that can bilities. These vehicles, popularly called flying cars start or stop anywhere, with speed and range or passenger drones, are designed to accommodate (distances greater than 200 miles) beyond pas- around two to five passengers or the equivalent car- senger drones and the traditional flying cars. go weight; be highly energy efficient, with reduced These vehicles have advanced VTOL capability or zero emissions; and be substantially quieter than and therefore can land and take off from almost a traditional helicopter.4 anywhere because they may not require an es- Several categories exist under the broad group tablished airport/vertiport. These would likely of these proposed urban mobility vehicles, each be piloted by a licensed pilot initially, but they with distinct characteristics and potential uses: could be made fully autonomous over time. • Passenger drones: A passenger drone is ex- pected to be an electric or hybrid-electric quad- Figure 1 lists and compares some of the major copter (although some may have more than four flying car and passenger drone manufacturers and rotors) that can be used to move people or cargo their proposed vehicles. between both established and on-demand origi- With the increasing popularity of small un- nation and destination points. These vehicles manned aerial vehicles or drones, and regulations can be either manually piloted, remotely piloted, increasingly supporting their commercial use, pas- or fully autonomous. When piloted, the pilots re- senger drones and flying cars appear to be moving quire a license or certification. Passenger drones closer to reality, with aerospace and aircraft design would cover short to medium-range distances technology being developed rapidly. Many passen- (up to 65 miles). ger drone and flying car manufacturers have already 3 Elevating the future of mobility Figure 1. Key specifications of major passenger drones and flying cars under development DEVELOPMENT START 1983 MOLLER Skycar HYBRID VTOL United States BATTERY PROTOTYPE 40 MAX SPEED (KM/H) & PERMIT GAS 0 MAX RANGE (KM) 4 ROTORS 2 SEATS AURORA FLIGHT SCIENCES eVTOL United States 1989 N/A MAX SPEED (KM/H) N/A MAX RANGE (KM) PAL-V Pal-V 9 ROTORS 2 SEATS Netherlands 10 MAX SPEED (KM/H) 400 MAX RANGE (KM) 2 ROTORS 2 SEATS TERRAFUGIA Transition 2001 United States 1 MAX SPEED (KM/H) 40 MAX RANGE (KM) 1 ROTOR 2 SEATS JOBY AVIATION S2 United States 0 MAX SPEED (KM/H) ZEE.AERO Zee.Aero 2006 0 MAX RANGE (KM) United States 1 ROTORS 2 SEATS N/A MAX SPEED (KM/H) N/A MAX RANGE (KM) 5 ROTORS 2 SEATS 2009 E-VOLO Volocopter Germany 2010 MAX SPEED (KM/H) AEROMOBIL Flying Car 100 Slovakia 100 MAX RANGE (KM) 1 ROTORS 2 SEATS 0 MAX SPEED (KM/H) 2012 0 MAX RANGE (KM) 1 ROTOR 2 SEATS 2014 LILIUM Lilium A3 (AIRBUS) Vahana Germany United States 00 MAX SPEED (KM/H) N/A MAX SPEED (KM/H) 2016 00 MAX RANGE (KM) 00 MAX RANGE (KM) 36 ROTORS 5 SEATS 8 ROTORS 1 SEAT EHANG 184 China AIRBUS PopUp MAX SPEED (KM/H) France 100 MAX RANGE (KM) MAX SPEED (KM/H) 0 N/A 8 ROTORS 1 SEAT N/A MAX RANGE (KM) 4 ROTORS 2 SEATS Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Drone Industry Insights. Deloitte Insights deloitte.com/insights 4 Passenger drones and flying cars passed the conceptualization/design phase, and a regulatory hurdles are cleared, passenger drones majority of them are currently in the prototyping are expected to get wings by 2018–2020, and tra- and testing stage, with most manufacturers expect- ditional flying cars by 2020–2022, while revolu- ing delivery by 2020 (figure 2). tionary vehicles could be a reality only by 2025.5 In terms of technology, the industry is at an advanced development phase, and if safety and Figure 2. Current development phases of passenger drones and flying cars Current phase MANUFACTURER/ Development CONCEPT/ Launch/ PROTOTYPING TESTING PRODUCTION Vehicle name start DESIGN delivery AEROMOBIL/ 2010 2020 Flying Car AIRBUS/PopUp 2016 2020 AIRBUS/Vahana 2016 2020 AURORA (BOEING)/ 1989 2020 eVTOL EHANG/184 2014 2018 E-VOLO/Volocopter 2012 2018 JOBY AVIATION/S2 2009 N/A LILIUM/Lilium 2014 2019 MOLLER/Skycar 1983 2020 PAL-V 2001 2018 TERRAFUGIA/ 2006 2019 Transition VRCO/NeoXCraft N/A 2020 ZEE.AERO/Zee 2010 N/A Source: Deloitte analysis based on data from Drone Industry Insights, company websites, and press releases. Deloitte Insights | deloitte.com/insights WHAT’S CURRENTLY IN THE AIR? China’s Ehang has already tested its self-flying passenger drone, named184 , which was showcased at the Consumer Electronics Show in 2016. This quadcopter has already been tested in Dubai, where it is expected to be operational as early as 2018, according to the company. However, Ehang still needs to obtain an aviation license. Aurora Flight Sciences, acquired by Boeing in October 2017, unveiled the eVTOL, with the prototype tested in the beginning of 2017.
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