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Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd. Assigned 'BBB-' Rating; Outlook Stable

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Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd. Assigned 'BBB-' Rating; Outlook Stable 19-Mar-2019 05:38 EDT View Analyst Contact Information We expect Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. Ltd. to continue to gain market share, supported by good product design, improving quality, and a strong pipeline of new models at its subsidiaries. This is despite uncertainties in global auto demand. In our view, the China-based automaker will maintain modest leverage, thanks to its stable profitability and strong operating cash flows. On March 19, 2019, S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BBB-' long-term issuer credit rating to Zhejiang Geely Holding. The stable outlook reflects our view that Zhejiang Geely Holding will continue to gradually grow its auto revenue and profit, and sustain moderate leverage over the next 12-24 months, despite a competitive and volatile market. HONG KONG (S&P Global Ratings) March 19, 2019--The rating on Zhejiang Geely Holding reflects our expectation that the company will continue to strengthen its position in the global and China's automotive industry over the next 12-24 months. In our view, Zhejiang Geely Holding could also improve its groupwide competitive position. This will be supported by sustained technology improvement, strong product pipeline, platform synergy, and successful marketing and sales execution of its major subsidiaries Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (Geely Auto), Lynk & Co, and Volvo Car AB (Volvo Car). We expect Geely Auto to continue its solid sales momentum over the next 12-24 months, outpacing market growth. The sales momentum would stem from the sustained quality improvements on the back of its research and development (R&D) effort and comprehensive cooperation with Volvo Car. We anticipate that Geely Auto's new models in 2019-2020 will continue to have strong visual appeal and good product design, like they did in 2017-2018, which should enhance the brand's attractiveness. Zhejiang Geely Holding is one of the major auto manufacturing groups in China with about 7% market share in 2018, up from 5.5% in 2017. Its core subsidiary, Geely Auto, posted strong sales growth in 2018 despite weak market demand in China, thanks to its rising brand popularity and strong rollout of new models. Volvo Car's strong market position could help Zhejiang Geely Holding solidify its standing in the higher-end spectrum of the auto market. Volvo Car is a key beneficiary of solid demand for high-end vehicles, amid overall lackluster auto sales. Volvo Car continues to improve its image globally through launches of additional models under its Scalable Product Architecture platform and through its involvement in initiatives like autonomous cars and electric vehicles, such as the launch of the Polestar brand. We expect Zhejiang Geely Holding to largely maintain its profitability over the next 12-24 months, because of ongoing cost controls and platform synergy despite intense competition and various industry challenges. Volvo Car is facing some short-term margin pressure, mainly from intense competition and higher tariffs. However, Geely Auto should slightly improve its profitability, driven by higher average selling price (ASP), economies of scale, and centralized procurement. Nevertheless, the group's operations will be subjected to the cyclical and competitive nature of the Chinese and global auto markets. Zhejiang Geely Holding has a somewhat smaller scale and market share, and weaker name recognition than major global automakers such as Volkswagen and Toyota. Zhejiang Geely Holding's leverage is likely to moderately decline over the next 12-24 months. This decline will be supported by strong operating cash flow generated from auto sales. However, we believe the company needs to continue to make significant capital expenditures on R&D and capacity additions to maintain technological competence and meet market demand. This will constrain the speed at which it can improve its credit metrics, in our view. Zhejiang Geely Holding's leverage rose to an estimated 1.0x-1.5x in 2018 from a low base of 0.5x in 2017 due to the substantial borrowings to fund the acquisition of stake in AB Volvo. The stable outlook reflects our view that Zhejiang Geely Holding will continue to gradually grow its auto market share, revenue, and profit, while maintaining moderate leverage over the next 12-24 months. This is despite the strongly competitive nature of the automotive industry, leading to persistent profitability pressure and potential volatility in revenue. We may raise the rating on Zhejiang Geely Holding if the group can significantly strengthen its product competitiveness, leading to a material increase in market share in the Chinese and global passenger vehicle markets. This improvement will help the group's adjusted EBITDA margin to rise above 10% on a sustained basis. This also assumes the group will largely maintain its current leverage profile with financial prudence. We may also raise the rating if the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio drops well below 1.0x for an extended time. We may lower the rating on Zhejiang Geely Holding if the company's market share and cost competitiveness worsen substantially, leading to a significant drop in group sales volume over an extended period or a decline in EBITDA margin to below 6%. We may also lower the rating if the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio increases to and consistently stays at or above 2x, with no increase in sales volume, possibly due to a severe industry downturn or significant cost overruns from its expansion and technology development projects. Zhejiang Geely Holding was established in 1986 and the group launched its automotive business in 1997. Zhejiang Geely Holding is a global automotive group, owning many international automotive brands, including Geely Auto, Lynk & Co, Volvo Car, Polestar, PROTON, Lotus, Terrafugia, etc. The group's business spans the entire automotive value chain, from research, development and design to production, sales, and service. RELATED CRITERIA General Criteria: Methodology And Assumptions: Assigning Equity Content To Hybrid Capital Instruments Issued By Corporate Entities And Other Issuers Not Subject To Prudential Regulation, Jan. 16, 2018 Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology: The Impact Of Captive Finance Operations On Nonfinancial Corporate Issuers, Dec. 14, 2015 Criteria | Corporates | General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014 Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria | Corporates | General: Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - Industrials: Key Credit Factors For The Auto And Commercial Vehicle Manufacturing Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 General Criteria: Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating, Oct. 1, 2010 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Criteria - Insurance - General: Hybrid Capital Handbook: September 2008 Edition, Sept. 15, 2008 Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at www.standardandpoors.com for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at www.capitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on S&P Global Ratings' public website at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. .
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