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NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring December 30, 2009

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NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring December 30, 2009 NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring December 30, 2009 Objective of this monitoring: Between December 2009 and March 2010, to more regularly monitor key features of Niger’s current and near‐future food security to inform decision‐making related to external assistance. Off‐season and flood recession agriculture • Dams and depressions normally used for off‐season cropping were generally not well filled compared to normal, which resulted in the abandonment of several irrigation sites. Approximately 1,745 hectares are projected to be cultivated in vegetable crops, benefitting 60,800 producers in 544 sites, including 71 sites developed with support from FAO. The area planted is down between 5‐10 percent nationally compared to normal due to poor rainfall and as much as 30 percent from 2008 and average in Goroubéri (Commune 1 de Niamey), Tchia, Kagari, Boubout (Mirriah), Tam (Mainé Soroa), and Bosso (Diffa). Two or three vegetable harvests are possible in a normal year, but this year water will be scarce as of February, thereby reducing the production cycle and number of potential harvests. • Prices for vegetable products are also above their levels of last year with possible positive effects on vegetable to cereal terms of trade. For example, in Mirriah (Zinder) the price of tomatoes was 100 FCFA/kg in December 2008, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 59 kg of millet. In December 2009, the price of tomatoes was 200 FCFA/kg, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 95 kg of millet. If off‐season production in Mirriah falls by more than 40 percent below normal, however, these improved terms of trade will not result in improved purchasing power. Good terms of trade are also not likely to be sufficient to meet the food gap in most areas. Pastoral conditions • The pastoral situation is characterized by a drying up of ponds and depletion of grazing in many pastoral and agropastoral areas of Diffa, Zinder, Tahoua, and Tillaberi. In most of the pastoral zone, the available forage will not suffice for the current animal population beyond February. Grazing is nonexistent in the north of Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, Abalak, Tchintabaraden, and N’Guigmi departments and animal body conditions there will be critically poor by the end of January. • The animal‐to‐millet terms of trade are below last year’s high levels: 23 percent lower for bulls, 11 percent lower for male sheep, and 20 percent lower for male goats. As the current poor situation progresses, animal body conditions are expected to reach a critical low point in March/April in the northern parts of Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, Tanout, and N’Guigmi departments, resulting in widespread destocking at low prices and abnormal animal mortality. • The pastoral and agropastoral households Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, and N’Guigmi face extreme forage deficits. Some households have left their lands in search of grazing in the far north where the forage is relatively average. The exhaustion of northern pastures between February and April will force the animals to move to dry season pastures in the south. To get there, they must cross several hundred kilometers completely devoid of pasture, which could result in massive deaths of livestock. Labor • Following the poor agricultural production in agricultural villages of the agro pastoral and pastoral belts in eastern Niger, a number of households left their villages of origin (mostly from Diffa, Tanout and Mirriah (the millet belt of Zinder region), and Gouré), in October for urban centers and areas of recessional cropping in search of daily labor. There is an unusually high presence of migrant workers ‐ particularly women and young girls and boys ‐ in urban centers, resulting in a greater supply than demand, which is normal. These women and young people come for domestic work for which salaries range normally from 5,000 to 7,500 FCFA (plus food), depending on the amount of work and experience. The current monthly salaries range from 2,500 to 7,000 FCFA (plus food). The daily wage for men is also declining from a stable 1000 FCFA per day in from 2008 through September 2009 to as low as 750 per day in December 2009. FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Niamey 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring December 30, 2009 Food Prices and Terms of Trade • Markets are well provisioned, but prices for millet, sorghum, maize, and cowpea remain higher than the nominal five‐ year average and are rising abnormally for the post‐harvest period. Cowpea prices are highest, more than 40 percent above both last years’ price and the average for December. • In December, the situation of livestock markets is characterized by supply more than 50 percent above normal and weak demand. The demand for large animals fell on all markets, but was particularly noticeable on the export markets. On the Gabi market, an export market frequented by speculators, traders, and Nigerian importers, demand is as much as 90 percent lower than in December 2008. • As a result, prices for animals are lower than last year. The lowest animal prices compared to the same period of 2008 are those of cows and bulls on the pastoral markets, including Dakoro, Gouderam, Tchintabaraden, and Aderbisnatt. Though prices nationally are about 20 percent nominal levels at this time last year, prices on these markets are approximately 70 percent below last years’ levels. Despite the high holiday demand, prices for small ruminants are between 5 and 15 percent lower than last year’s nominal prices. The progressive deterioration of animal body conditions and increase of grain prices will result in a collapse of livestock‐to‐cereal terms of trade as of March similar to that of 2005. Regional food availability, import expectations • Currently, the Niger markets are well supplied from neighboring countries including Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo. In December 2009, prices of millet and maize are higher on the Nigerien market than on the border markets of Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, which favors the import of these cereals. The exchange rate of the Naira against the CFA also encourages imports. • No abnormal official or unofficial government action impedes the flow of grain between the countries. However, given the drop in millet production regionally, neighboring countries may restrict the outflow of cereals to secure national consumption needs. Health and Nutrition • Admissions of malnourished children into recuperation centers was generally stable in November and December. However, data available as of the end of December indicate that about twice as many children were receiving treatment for malnutrition in December 2009 than in December 2008, with the greatest increases being reported in N’guigmi, Mirriah, Guidan Roudji, Dakoro, Tanout, and Mayahi. • In 2009 the Government of Niger implemented new WHO screening standards for malnutrition. The academic literature has not found the new WHO standards to have a very significant impact on rates of global acute malnutrition. Also the increase in malnutrition is unlikely to be caused by poor health conditions. Though malaria rates are slightly higher this year than last, the incidence of current both meningitis and measles are far below last year’s levels, and the areas of higher incidence of disease do not correspond with those with higher incidence of malnutrition. • In June 2009, however, the government reinstated feeding programs that had ceased in most areas in mid‐2008. A significant increase in caseloads was observed immediately in centers where this change occurred. A proportion of the increased caseload can therefore be attributed to the changes in the feeding programs. However, the areas experiencing the greatest increases in caseloads between December 2008 and December 2009 are also among those most affected by the poor agricultural season, indicating that food insecurity is contributing significantly to a below‐ normal nutritional status of the population. Interventions • The current level of national security stock (SNS) is 21,884 tons, and purchases are underway for an additional 6,000 tons. The goal for the SNS this year is 50,000 tons. In addition, the level of the food security reserve (RAS) is currently 42,694 tons. • The national agency for the prevention and management of food crises is preparing a plan to support vulnerable populations as of February/March, which includes cash for work, sales of grain and animal feed at subsidized prices, food distributions, and nutritional recovery assistance, though no public intervention is yet underway. However, some NGOs such as Save the Children and the Irish Red Cross have launched operations such as cash transfers and distribution of goats in their areas of intervention including Tessaoua, Magaria, Matameye, and Tanout. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring December 30, 2009 Most likely scenario through September 2010 • Given above‐normal grain prices and very low prices for animals, we will observe moderate‐to‐high food insecurity from January to April 2010 in agro pastoral and pastoral areas, where the access to food is poor for households with a reduced capital stock. With a normal installation of the rainy season in May‐June 2010, the return of migrant laborers and their cash and in‐kind resources could improve the situation slightly. July‐September is the hunger season, which will be particularly difficult this year in the pastoral and agropastoral areas of Tanout Ouallam, Tillaberi, Mirriah, Gouré, Diffa, Maine Soroa, Nguigmi, Filingué, Dakoro and Mayahi even if the rains progress well.
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