NIGER Food Security Outlook January - September 2008 • The food situation is deteriorating in northern Figure 1. Current food security assessment, January departments affected by armed conflict. Food security through March 2008 conditions are poor across Ouallam, Téra, Dakoro, Keita, Tahoua, Abalak, Mayahi, Tanout, Gouré, Dogon Doutchi, Loga, Nguigmi and Mainé Soroa departments due to dwindling reserves and an erosion in purchasing power. According to the findings by the joint survey of vulnerability to food insecurity conducted in November‐ December of 2007, 1,441,967 persons are classified as severely food‐insecure (12 percent of the country’s population), up from a figure of 1,100,000 for the same period of 2006. The food situation in Tillabery, Say, Filingué and Konni departments is improving and the state of nutrition is stable in the southern part of the country (Figure 1). • In the most likely scenario for the period from April Source: FEWS NET Niger through June of this year, off‐season crop availability will decline and households will begin to deplete their grain reserves, particularly in Doutchi, Loga, Ouallam and Téra departments and in large portions of the agropastoral area of Tahoua, Maradi, Zinder and Diffa departments. Crops will be available on local markets, but there will be a small seasonal upswing in prices. The food situation in the third quarter of the year, from July through September, should be normal for that time of year, with an average start‐of‐ season for 2008/09 crops in June and farmers and traders unloading their inventories and selling their grain crops. • The worst‐case scenario for the period from April through June would be a poor start‐of‐season for the 2008/09 agropastoral season and heavy pressure on domestic markets. In this scenario, heavier demand would drive up prices and erode the food access of poor, food‐deficit households. Conditions would steadily deteriorate in the third quarter of the year, from July through September, creating extreme food security problems, particularly in the northern part of the country and in pastoral areas, triggering abnormal population movements. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington Niamey 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 73 43 20 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008 Current food security conditions, January through March 2008 On the whole, the food situation in Niger is normal for this quarter. In general, the previously stable food situation continued into January across the country, with conditions in certain departments (e.g., Tillabery, Say and Kollo) actually improving following good harvests of irrigated rice crops. Similar improvements have occurred in departments like Filingué where intensive off‐season potato and vegetable farming has increased food availability. Sentinel site data from high‐risk areas of the country, and collected by the WFP, FAO, FEWS NET, CILSS, UNICEF, SIMA and other organizations, showed 70.12 percent of households classified as food‐secure in December 22007, compared with 71.6 percent in November, 59.4 percent in August and 55.7 percent in June. The prevalence of child (6‐59 months) malnutrition also declined from 17.5 percent in June of last year to 12.4 percent in August, 10.8 percent in November and 8.9 percent in December. This data is collected from a group of 6,650 households in 445 villages across 80 selected “communes” (or counties) in high‐risk areas targeted by the annual meeting of the National Food Crisis Prevention and Management Network in Niger held in March of 2007. These improvements are the result of a number of factors, namely: • Good 2007 harvests, except in the West, where the rains ended earlier than usual but whose negative effects were tempered by rice‐growing and truck‐farming activities along the Niger River and in Filingué; • Good availability of on‐farm carry‐over inventories from 2005 and 2006; • Regular market supplies; • Low market demand for grain crops due to the availability of off‐season crops as substitute foods and the existence of large household food stores; • The completion of procurements for the rebuilding of national food security reserves; • Stable or low grain prices compared with the 2002/06 average, with localized price hikes in grain‐short areas of Ouallam, Loga, Mayahi, Dakoro, Tanout and Tchirozérine or targeted hikes in the case of corn; and • A sustained demand for livestock and favorable prices for pastoralists thanks to abundant pasture and water resources. Despite these generally good conditions, there are serious to critical malnutrition problems in Diffa, Aguié, Guidan Roumdji, Bouza, Say, Mirriah, Matameye, Mainé Soroa, N’Guigmi, Dosso, Dakoro, Illéla, Keita, Kollo and Téra departments, as households transition from a period of growing food availability to a period of scarcity, with a lack of dietary diversification. There are reports of deteriorating conditions from parts of the central region known for their traditionally high rates of malnutrition related to poor caring practices. Moreover, the food situation in the northern part of the country is still extremely worrisome. The flow of food supplies to this area is obstructed by ongoing conflict between Niger’s regular army and an armed group known as the Niger Movement for Justice (MNJ) since February of last year. Though current grain prices in the area of fighting are near or below the 2002/06 average (thanks to timely mobilization of the national food security reserve), tourism, livestock‐raising and truck‐farming activities, which had been pumping billions of CFA francs into the local economy in recent years, are nonexistent since the government placed this region on a state of alert in August of last year. As a result, local residents are facing hardship, triggering population movements in rural areas of the conflict zone. According to a number of sources, more than 3,000 residents have fled the area for Arlit and Agadez. Having abandoned their homes and their property, their already alarming food and health situation is now further aggravated by their limited access to the humanitarian aid marshaled by different agencies, organizations and NGOs. Markets, trade and food access Market supplies are ample and the levels of on‐farm, trader and grain bank inventories are good, particularly in the case of millet, the main staple of the local diet in Niger. As of December 31st of last year, the level of government reserves administered by Niger’s National Grain Marketing Board (OPVN) was also quite high (78,103 MT compared with the 110,000 MT target figure), with supplies positioned in all parts of the country. Only corn prices are running high compared with the 2002/06 average and figures for the same time last year due to production deficits in exporting countries and the tightening of world market supplies. However, corn consumption is Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008 mostly limited to urban areas and, at least for the Figure 2. Nominal retail prices for millet on the Maradi cross- time being, only poor urban households are feeling border surplus market from January 2002 to December 2007 the effects of rising corn prices. compared with the 2002/06 average Thus, on the whole, the good 2005, 2006 and 2007 harvests are keeping grain prices stable on most markets in crop‐producing areas, as in the case of Maradi, which is considered a reference market for Niger (Figure 2), where current market conditions show a visible improvement over the five‐year average. This, in turn, has improved terms of trade for livestock/grain this year. Movements in livestock prices favored pastoralists throughout all of last year, with the low price of grain strengthening the grain access of pastoral households. There was an improvement in market conditions and price levels in grain‐short areas such as Tchirozérine, Diffa and Tanout between 2006 and 2007, except on Source: SIMA and FEWS NET Niger certain local markets such as Ouallam, which saw Figure 3. Nominal retail prices for millet on markets in grain- virtually no change (Figure 3). This generally short areas of Ouallam, Tchirozérine, Tanout and Diffa in 2005, encouraging situation, with prices actually declining in 2006 and 2007 some cases, was attributable to an adequate grain supply and normal domestic and outside demand. However, violence in the northern part of the country has eroded market supplies in that region, with truckers reluctant to enter the area. These structurally deficit areas were unable to take full advantage of the lower prices produced by the good harvests in grain‐ surplus areas across the south. Most likely food security scenario April through June 2008 The most likely food security scenario for the period from April through June is one of adequate grain Source: SIMA and FEWS NET Niger availability on domestic markets (with supplies of off‐season crops depleted and dwindling grain reserves from last season), with prices inching upwards in the face of a growing demand from grain‐short households. The rise in prices should be comparable to a normal seasonal upswing in prices, provided the balance is not upset by outside demand. In contrast, a look ahead to the situation in pastoral areas shows the condition of livestock beginning to deteriorate as pasture and water resources become increasingly scarce with the onset of the dry season. However, trends in terms of trade could continue to benefit pastoralists.