Food Security Outlook January - September 2008

• The food situation is deteriorating in northern Figure 1. Current food security assessment, January departments affected by armed conflict. Food security through March 2008 conditions are poor across , Téra, , Keita, , , , , Gouré, Dogon Doutchi, Loga, Nguigmi and Mainé Soroa departments due to dwindling reserves and an erosion in purchasing power. According to the findings by the joint survey of vulnerability to food insecurity conducted in November‐ December of 2007, 1,441,967 persons are classified as severely food‐insecure (12 percent of the country’s population), up from a figure of 1,100,000 for the same period of 2006. The food situation in Tillabery, Say, Filingué and Konni departments is improving and the state of nutrition is stable in the southern part of the country (Figure 1).

• In the most likely scenario for the period from April Source: FEWS NET Niger through June of this year, off‐season crop availability will decline and households will begin to deplete their grain reserves, particularly in Doutchi, Loga, Ouallam and Téra departments and in large portions of the agropastoral area of Tahoua, Maradi, and departments. Crops will be available on local markets, but there will be a small seasonal upswing in prices. The food situation in the third quarter of the year, from July through September, should be normal for that time of year, with an average start‐of‐ season for 2008/09 crops in June and farmers and traders unloading their inventories and selling their grain crops.

• The worst‐case scenario for the period from April through June would be a poor start‐of‐season for the 2008/09 agropastoral season and heavy pressure on domestic markets. In this scenario, heavier demand would drive up prices and erode the food access of poor, food‐deficit households. Conditions would steadily deteriorate in the third quarter of the year, from July through September, creating extreme food security problems, particularly in the northern part of the country and in pastoral areas, triggering abnormal population movements.

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source: FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 73 43 20 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

www.fews.net/niger NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008

Current food security conditions, January through March 2008

On the whole, the food situation in Niger is normal for this quarter. In general, the previously stable food situation continued into January across the country, with conditions in certain departments (e.g., Tillabery, Say and Kollo) actually improving following good harvests of irrigated rice crops. Similar improvements have occurred in departments like Filingué where intensive off‐season potato and vegetable farming has increased food availability.

Sentinel site data from high‐risk areas of the country, and collected by the WFP, FAO, FEWS NET, CILSS, UNICEF, SIMA and other organizations, showed 70.12 percent of households classified as food‐secure in December 22007, compared with 71.6 percent in November, 59.4 percent in August and 55.7 percent in June. The prevalence of child (6‐59 months) malnutrition also declined from 17.5 percent in June of last year to 12.4 percent in August, 10.8 percent in November and 8.9 percent in December. This data is collected from a group of 6,650 households in 445 villages across 80 selected “communes” (or counties) in high‐risk areas targeted by the annual meeting of the National Food Crisis Prevention and Management Network in Niger held in March of 2007.

These improvements are the result of a number of factors, namely:

• Good 2007 harvests, except in the West, where the rains ended earlier than usual but whose negative effects were tempered by rice‐growing and truck‐farming activities along the Niger River and in Filingué; • Good availability of on‐farm carry‐over inventories from 2005 and 2006; • Regular market supplies; • Low market demand for grain crops due to the availability of off‐season crops as substitute foods and the existence of large household food stores; • The completion of procurements for the rebuilding of national food security reserves; • Stable or low grain prices compared with the 2002/06 average, with localized price hikes in grain‐short areas of Ouallam, Loga, Mayahi, Dakoro, Tanout and Tchirozérine or targeted hikes in the case of corn; and • A sustained demand for livestock and favorable prices for pastoralists thanks to abundant pasture and water resources.

Despite these generally good conditions, there are serious to critical malnutrition problems in Diffa, Aguié, Guidan Roumdji, , Say, , , Mainé Soroa, N’Guigmi, Dosso, Dakoro, Illéla, Keita, Kollo and Téra departments, as households transition from a period of growing food availability to a period of scarcity, with a lack of dietary diversification. There are reports of deteriorating conditions from parts of the central region known for their traditionally high rates of malnutrition related to poor caring practices. Moreover, the food situation in the northern part of the country is still extremely worrisome. The flow of food supplies to this area is obstructed by ongoing conflict between Niger’s regular army and an armed group known as the Niger Movement for Justice (MNJ) since February of last year. Though current grain prices in the area of fighting are near or below the 2002/06 average (thanks to timely mobilization of the national food security reserve), tourism, livestock‐raising and truck‐farming activities, which had been pumping billions of CFA francs into the local economy in recent years, are nonexistent since the government placed this region on a state of alert in August of last year. As a result, local residents are facing hardship, triggering population movements in rural areas of the conflict zone. According to a number of sources, more than 3,000 residents have fled the area for and . Having abandoned their homes and their property, their already alarming food and health situation is now further aggravated by their limited access to the humanitarian aid marshaled by different agencies, organizations and NGOs.

Markets, trade and food access

Market supplies are ample and the levels of on‐farm, trader and grain bank inventories are good, particularly in the case of millet, the main staple of the local diet in Niger. As of December 31st of last year, the level of government reserves administered by Niger’s National Grain Marketing Board (OPVN) was also quite high (78,103 MT compared with the 110,000 MT target figure), with supplies positioned in all parts of the country.

Only corn prices are running high compared with the 2002/06 average and figures for the same time last year due to production deficits in exporting countries and the tightening of world market supplies. However, corn consumption is

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008

mostly limited to urban areas and, at least for the Figure 2. Nominal retail prices for millet on the Maradi cross- time being, only poor urban households are feeling border surplus market from January 2002 to December 2007 the effects of rising corn prices. compared with the 2002/06 average

Thus, on the whole, the good 2005, 2006 and 2007 harvests are keeping grain prices stable on most markets in crop‐producing areas, as in the case of Maradi, which is considered a reference market for Niger (Figure 2), where current market conditions show a visible improvement over the five‐year average. This, in turn, has improved terms of trade for livestock/grain this year. Movements in livestock prices favored pastoralists throughout all of last year, with the low price of grain strengthening the grain access of pastoral households.

There was an improvement in market conditions and price levels in grain‐short areas such as Tchirozérine, Diffa and Tanout between 2006 and 2007, except on Source: SIMA and FEWS NET Niger certain local markets such as Ouallam, which saw Figure 3. Nominal retail prices for millet on markets in grain- virtually no change (Figure 3). This generally short areas of Ouallam, Tchirozérine, Tanout and Diffa in 2005, encouraging situation, with prices actually declining in 2006 and 2007 some cases, was attributable to an adequate grain supply and normal domestic and outside demand.

However, violence in the northern part of the country has eroded market supplies in that region, with truckers reluctant to enter the area. These structurally deficit areas were unable to take full advantage of the lower prices produced by the good harvests in grain‐ surplus areas across the south.

Most likely food security scenario

April through June 2008

The most likely food security scenario for the period from April through June is one of adequate grain Source: SIMA and FEWS NET Niger availability on domestic markets (with supplies of off‐season crops depleted and dwindling grain reserves from last season), with prices inching upwards in the face of a growing demand from grain‐short households. The rise in prices should be comparable to a normal seasonal upswing in prices, provided the balance is not upset by outside demand. In contrast, a look ahead to the situation in pastoral areas shows the condition of livestock beginning to deteriorate as pasture and water resources become increasingly scarce with the onset of the dry season. However, trends in terms of trade could continue to benefit pastoralists. The nutritional situation could also deteriorate in certain departments (e.g., Mirriah, , Matameye and ), with rapidly dwindling household food stores and the depletion of supplies of off‐season crops allowing for a more diversified local diet.

Child malnutrition rates are expected to rise in many areas with the depletion of income from cash crops, despite better prevention and treatment programs for malnutrition. The already poor nutritional situation will be further aggravated by outbreaks of seasonal illnesses such as meningitis and measles (with the beginning of the March heat), primarily affecting departments close to or along the country’s border with Nigeria (Guidan Roumdji, Maradi (municipality), Mayahi, , Madarounfa, Magaria, Matameye, Mirriah, Zinder (municipality), Birni NKonni, Keita, Doutchi, Filingué, Illéla and ).

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008

Moreover, the persistent violence in the north will help expand Table 1. Scenario indicators severe food insecurity problems in impacted areas with the slow‐down in trade between areas of fighting in the north and Most likely food security scenario, April through the southern part of the country. At the same time, there will be June 2008 government reserves available as a source of supply for these northern areas. • Regular market supplies and a small normal seasonal upswing in grain prices; As a result of these conditions, the most likely scenario for the • Favorable terms of trade for pastoralists; period from April through June is one of: • Violence in the north obstructing trade between northern and southern Niger and hampering • Normal seasonal market supplies with near‐average market tourism activities, which are the mainstay of the prices and localized price hikes on markets in food‐short food economies of local residents; areas, triggering grain access problems for poor households • Normal seasonal deterioration in the state of child in these areas, with mass reliance on village or community nutrition; and reserves by food‐short households; and • Existence of government reserves as a source of • High corn prices due to reported deficits in corn‐producing supply for northern areas of the country. countries. Most likely food security scenario, July through September 2008 Recommended measures include: • Good start-of-season and good progress of the • Regular monitoring of market conditions, trade flows and growing season;

prices; • Unloading of on-farm and trader inventories, with • Strengthened relief programs by the government and NGOs certain household depleting their food stores; in food‐deficit areas in the form of cash‐for‐work activities; • Poor harvests of off-season crops; • Social marketing programs to improve food access; • Erratic market supplies in grain-short areas, with a • Strengthened prevention and treatment programs for child growing demand and rising prices; malnutrition, primarily involving awareness‐raising, • Use of government reserves; vaccination campaigns and blanket feeding programs; • Seasonal deterioration in nutritional conditions; • Help in replenishing grain banks, village‐level reserves and and cooperative stores; • Good conditions in pastoral areas and good milk • Interventions aimed at sustaining demand for livestock and availability improving livestock prices for pastoralists; • Timely use of the national food security reserve beginning in May in certain areas, particularly in the north, to bolster food availability.

July through September 2008

The third quarter of the year (July through September) coincides with the lean period in Niger. Assuming the 2008 rainy season (running from June through the end of September) begins normally, the most likely food security scenario may involve a normal food situation, but with serious hardships for children in households running short of food and income. Moreover, a normal start‐of‐season would help improve conditions in pastoral areas and, thus, milk and egg production as sources of protein and income for residents of these areas. These same normal start‐of‐season conditions in countries to the South would put early‐maturing cowpea, groundnut and corn crops on the market by the end of July or the beginning of August.

However, some households will deplete their food stores and rely on assistance programs, government subsidy programs or community food reserves to enable them to pursue their normal livelihoods. Their food situation could also be eased by gainful employment opportunities afforded by stepped‐up farming activities at this time of year.

With the persistent social tension in the northern part of the country, food availability will be ensured by the governments large national food security reserve.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4 NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008

More specifically, this scenario assumes:

• A normal, near‐average start‐of‐season for 2008/09 crops in June‐July; • The regular unloading of on‐farm and trader inventories, with the depletion of on‐farm reserves in food‐short areas, a sizeable drop in the level of grain reserves in surplus areas and normal growth in demand in areas posting deficits; • Regular market supplies in general, some transport constraints due to impassable roads during the rainy season; • Seasonally high market prices, particularly in food‐short areas in need of assistance through cash for work and social marketing programs; • Better food availability in areas along the Niger River following harvests of second‐season irrigated rice crops; • Deterioration in the nutritional situation in traditional hardship areas (Matameye, Mirriah, Magaria and Madaroufa); • Normal demand for livestock, with favorable terms of trade for pastoralists with the improvement in conditions in pastoral areas, with good milk availability; and • Reliance on village‐level reserves or the national food security reserve to meet food needs in the north and in areas plagued by food shortages such as Ouallam, pastoral areas and other flood‐stricken areas or areas cut off by impassable roads.

Recommended measures include:

• Regular monitoring of market conditions, trade flows and prices; • Replenishment of village‐level reserves, grain banks and the national food security reserve; • Subsidy programs to improve food access; and • Strengthened prevention and treatment programs for malnutrition.

Figure 4. Most likely food security assessment, April Figure 5. Most likely food security assessment, July through June 2008 through September 2008

Source: FEWS NET Niger Source: FEWS NET Niger

Worst‐case food security scenario

April through June 2008

In the worst‐case scenario, market conditions begin to deteriorate in April, producing abnormally large rises in grain prices. The smooth operation of domestic markets will be disrupted by heavy demand in Nigeria, with high prices comparable to price levels in 2005. (The price of millet in Ouallam stood at 371 CFAF/kg in August of 2005.) Patterns of regional trade would be disrupted by trade diversion, adversely affecting the regular flow of supplies to Niger during this period.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5 NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008

The situation could further deteriorate in June‐July if the agropastoral season gets off to a poor start. In this scenario, the beginning of the growing season would be affected by heavy rainfall and large‐scale flooding, destroying crops and washing away acres of tuber crops. In pastoral areas, poor rainfall would result in poor pasture production and the drying up of watering holes, leading to deteriorations in animal body conditions and terms‐of‐trade.

The household food situation would be marked by a steady depletion of family food reserves and mass buying on markets at ever‐higher prices. The nutritional situation in villages would deteriorate as supplies of off‐season crops are exhausted, with outbreaks of seasonal illnesses such as meningitis and measles. Moreover, persistent, increasingly widespread violence in the northern part of the country would cut off the market access of residents of this area, eventually making the local population extremely food‐insecure.

Manifestations of the severe food insecurity problems affecting Table 2. Scenario indicators all parts of the country under this scenario for the period from April through June could include: Worst-case food security scenario, April through June 2008 • Food access problems in the wake of a visible rise in prices on markets across the country due, mainly, to • Exhaustion of supplies of off-season crops; the growing demand for grain in Nigeria; • Depletion of on-farm reserves; • Food shortages and heavy speculation by traders; • Erratic market supplies and rising grain prices; • Depleted on‐farm grain reserves in many villages; • Imposition of barriers to trade in grain by • Limited exports of food crops by Benin, Burkina Faso neighboring countries (Nigeria, Benin, Mali and and Mali, primarily affecting residents of food‐short and Burkina Faso); urban areas largely dependent on imports for their food • Poor conditions in pastoral areas and unfavorable terms of trade for pastoralists; supplies; • Violence in the north disrupting trade between the • Poor coverage of cash‐for‐work programs mounted by northern and southern parts of the country; and the government and NGOs in different parts of the • Mass use of the national food security reserve for country; social marketing programs, threatening to deplete • Food shortages on many markets and inability of the it before the end of the lean period. national food security reserve to manage the situation; • A major deterioration in the state of child nutrition; Worst-case food security scenario, • Hoarding by farmers and traders in Niger; July through September 2008 • A deterioration in the condition of livestock and unattractive prices for pastoralists due to poor pasture • Late start and poor progress of the growing production and the low levels of watering holes; season; • Disruptions in deliveries of supplies to grain banks, • Erratic market supplies and above-average prices cooperative stores and markets in the northern part of since November of 2007; the country due to civil unrest. • Hoarding by farmers and traders; • Imposition of barriers to trade in grain by Recommended measures include: neighboring countries (Nigeria, Benin, Mali and Burkina Faso); • Escalation in disputes between farmers and • Monitoring of markets and trade flows; herders; • Strengthened cash for work programs; • Depletion of on-farm reserves; • Awareness‐raising campaigns for farmers and traders to • Inability of government reserves to meet food sensitize them to the need to replenish grain banks and needs in the North; village and community reserves; • Deterioration in the nutritional situation; and • Social marketing programs; and • Poor conditions in pastoral areas and poor milk • The lifting of barriers to regional trade, taking availability. advantage of opportunities afforded under ECOWAS trade agreements.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6 NIGER Food Security Outlook January through September 2008

July through September 2008

In the worst‐case scenario for the period from July through September a deterioration in market conditions and rise in prices beginning in the second quarter of the year (April through June) and a poor start for this year’s agropastoral season in June/July will result in most parts of the country being highly or extremely food‐insecure. There will be food shortages across the country, with most of the population grappling with poor food access. The situation in the north will be especially critical, where the combination of food shortages and persistent violence will make local markets dysfunctional and isolate this area of fighting from the rest of the country. There may be population movements from pastoral areas southwards, with an escalation in disputes between farmers and herders due to shortages of pasture and watering holes for livestock. Under these circumstances, government grain supplies from the national food security reserve will be insufficient to meet a growing demand in all parts of the country. The state of nutrition will also deteriorate in virtually all areas of the country.

Possible contributing factors to such a scenario include:

• A late start‐of‐season and disruption in the progress of the growing season; • Hoarding by farmers and traders in Niger; • Low market supplies; • An abnormal hike in prices on all markets with the onset of the lean period, a growing demand for grain in Nigeria and speculation by traders; • Poor pasture production and a visible faltering in demand for livestock, driving down the market value of animals; • The inability of the national food security reserve, grain banks, cooperative stores and village‐level reserves to meet spot needs.

Such adverse conditions could not be addressed by the types of intervention mechanisms currently in place in Niger. An appeal for massive international aid may be necessary in this case. Moreover, there is an increasingly pressing need to take a less rurally‐focused approach in which humanitarian and development programs also address food insecurity problems in urban areas.

Figure 6. Worst-case food security assessment, April Figure 7. Worst-case food security assessment, July through June 2008 through September 2008

Source: FEWS NET Niger Source: FEWS NET Niger

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7