Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger

Analysis Coordination

March 2019 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

About FEWS NET Created in response to the 1984 famines in East and West Africa, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides early warning and integrated, forward-looking analysis of the many factors that contribute to food insecurity. FEWS NET aims to inform decision makers and contribute to their emergency response planning; support partners in conducting early warning analysis and forecasting; and provide technical assistance to partner-led initiatives. To learn more about the FEWS NET project, please visit www.fews.net. Acknowledgements This publication was prepared under the United States Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Indefinite Quantity Contract, AID-OAA-I-12-00006. The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Recommended Citation FEWS NET. 2019. Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger. Washington, DC: FEWS NET.

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Table of Contents Executive Summary ...... 1 Background ...... 1 Summary of Classification Conclusions ...... 1 Food Consumptions Quality ...... 3 Food Consumption Quantity ...... 4 Nutrition ...... 5 Summary of Underlying and Limiting Factors ...... 6 IPC Chronic Analysis Background Methodology ...... 7 Chronic Food Insecurity Niger Area of Analysis Overviews ...... 8 Agadez Region ...... 8 1: Eastern Agadez - Oases: Dates, Salt, and Trade Dominant Zone ...... 8 2: Central Agadez - Air Massif Irrigated Gardening Dominant Zone ...... 11 3: Western Agadez - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism Dominant Zone ...... 15 Diffa Region ...... 18 4: Southeastern Diffa – Irrigated Peppers Dominant Zone ...... 18 5: Central Diffa - Agropastoral Dominant Zone ...... 22 6: Western Diffa - Natron Salt and Small Basin Irrigated Dates dominant zone ...... 26 7: Northeastern Diffa - Lake Chad Flood-Retreat Cultivation and Fishing dominant zone ...... 29 8: Northern Diffa - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant zone ...... 33 Dosso Region ...... 37 9: Northern Dosso - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone ...... 37 10: Southern Dosso - Cereals and Fan-Palm Products dominant zone ...... 41 Maradi Region ...... 44 11: Northern Maradi - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant zone ...... 44 12: Central Maradi - Agropastoral dominant zone ...... 48 13: Southwestern Maradi - Irrigated Cash Crops dominant zone ...... 52 14: Southeastern Maradi - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone ...... 56 Tahoua Region ...... 60 15: Northern Tahoua - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant ...... 60 16: Southwestern Tahoua - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant ...... 64 17: Southeastern Tahoua - Irrigated Cash Crops dominant zone ...... 68 18: Central Tahoua - Agropastoral dominant zone ...... 72 Tillaberi Region ...... 76 19: Northern Tilaberi - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism ...... 76 21: Southern Tillabéri - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone ...... 83

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Zinder Region ...... 87 22: Northern Zinder - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant zone ...... 87 23: Central Zinder - Agropastoral dominant zone...... 91 24: Southern Zinder - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone ...... 95 Annex 1. Participant List ...... 99 References ...... 101

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List of Figures Figure 1. Chronic food insecurity classification for Niger ...... 1 Figure 2. Proportion of households facing severe quality deficits (Level 3 and 4) by area of analysis ...... 4 Figure 3. Proportion of households facing severe quantity deficits (Level 3 and 4) by area of analysis ...... 5 Figure 4. Proportion of households facing severe chronic malnutrition (Level 3 and 4) by area of analysis ...... 6 Figure 5. Zone 1 Reference map ...... 8 Figure 6. Zone 2 Reference map ...... 11 Figure 7. Zone 3 Reference map ...... 15 Figure 8. Zone 4 Reference map ...... 18 Figure 9. Zone 5 Reference map ...... 22 Figure 10. Zone 6 Reference map ...... 26 Figure 11. Zone 7 Reference map ...... 29 Figure 12. Zone 8 Reference map ...... 33 Figure 13. Zone 9 Reference Map ...... 37 Figure 14. Zone 10 Reference Map ...... 41 Figure 15. Zone 11 Reference Map ...... 44 Figure 16. Zone 12 Reference Map ...... 48 Figure 17. Zone 13 Reference Map ...... 52 Figure 18. Zone 14 Reference Map ...... 56 Figure 19. Zone 15 Reference Map ...... 60 Figure 20. Zone 16 Reference Map ...... 64 Figure 21. Zone 17 Reference Map ...... 68 Figure 22. Zone 18 Reference Map ...... 72 Figure 23. Zone 19 Reference Map ...... 76 Figure 24. Zone 20 Reference Map ...... 79 Figure 25. Zone 21 Reference Map ...... 83 Figure 26. Zone 22 Reference Map ...... 87 Figure 27. Zone 23 Reference Map ...... 91 Figure 28. Zone 24 Reference Map ...... 95

List of Tables Table 1. Proportion of population in CFI level classification ...... 2 Table 2. Food consumption quality by zone ...... 4 Table 3. Food consumption quality by zone ...... 5 Table 4. Nutrition by zone ...... 6 Table 5. Key indicators of dietary quality in Eastern Agadez ...... 9 Table 6. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Eastern Agadez ...... 9 Table 7. Key indicators of nutrition in Eastern Agadez ...... 10 Table 8. Key indicators of nutrition in Eastern Agadez ...... 10 Table 9. Key indicators of dietary quality in Central Agadez ...... 12 Table 10. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Central Agadez ...... 13 Table 11. Key indicators of nutrition in Central Agadez ...... 13 Table 12. Final convergence Central Agadez ...... 14 Table 13. Key indicators of dietary quality in Western Agadez ...... 15 Table 14. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Western Agadez ...... 16 Table 15. Key indicators of nutrition in Western Agadez ...... 16 Table 16. Final convergence Western Agadez ...... 17 Table 17. Key indicators of dietary quality in Southeastern Diffa ...... 19

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Table 18. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Southeastern Diffa ...... 20 Table 19. Key indicators of nutrition in Southeastern Diffa ...... 20 Table 20. Final convergence Southeastern Diffa ...... 21 Table 21. Key indicators of dietary quality in Central Diffa ...... 23 Table 22. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Central Diffa ...... 23 Table 23. Key indicators of nutrition in Central Diffa ...... 24 Table 24. Final convergence Central Diffa ...... 25 Table 25. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Western Diffa ...... 27 Table 26. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Western Diffa ...... 27 Table 27. Key Indicators of nutrition in Western Diffa ...... 28 Table 28. Final convergence Western Diffa ...... 28 Table 29. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northeastern Diffa ...... 30 Table 30. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northeastern Diffa ...... 30 Table 31. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northeastern Diffa ...... 31 Table 32. Final convergence Zone Northeastern Diffa ...... 32 Table 33. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Diffa ...... 33 Table 34. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Diffa ...... 34 Table 35. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Diffa ...... 35 Table 36. Final convergence Northern Diffa ...... 35 Table 37. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Dosso ...... 38 Table 38. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Dosso...... 38 Table 39. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Dosso ...... 39 Table 40. Final convergence Northern Dosso ...... 40 Table 41. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southern Dosso ...... 41 Table 42. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southern Dosso...... 42 Table 43. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southern Dosso ...... 43 Table 44. Final convergence Southern Dosso ...... 43 Table 45. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Maradi ...... 45 Table 46. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Maradi ...... 46 Table 47. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Maradi ...... 46 Table 48. Final convergence Northern Maradi ...... 47 Table 49. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Maradi ...... 49 Table 50. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Maradi ...... 50 Table 51. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Maradi ...... 50 Table 52. Final convergence Central Maradi ...... 51 Table 53. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southwestern Maradi...... 52 Table 54. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southwestern Maradi ...... 53 Table 55. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southwestern Maradi ...... 54 Table 56. Final convergence Southwestern Maradi ...... 55 Table 57. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southeastern Maradi ...... 56 Table 58. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southeastern Maradi ...... 57 Table 59. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southeastern Maradi ...... 58 Table 60. Final convergence Southeastern Maradi ...... 58 Table 61. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Tahoua ...... 61 Table 62. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Tahoua ...... 61 Table 63. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Tahoua ...... 62 Table 64. Final convergence Northern Tahoua ...... 63 Table 65. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southwestern Tahoua ...... 65 Table 66. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southwestern Tahoua ...... 65 Table 67. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southwestern Tahoua ...... 66 Table 68. Final convergence Southwestern Tahoua ...... 66

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Table 69. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southeastern Tahoua ...... 68 Table 70. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southeastern Tahoua...... 69 Table 71. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southeastern Tahoua ...... 70 Table 72. Final convergence Southeastern Tahoua ...... 70 Table 73. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Tahoua ...... 73 Table 74. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Tahoua ...... 73 Table 75. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Tahoua ...... 74 Table 76. Final convergence Central Tahoua ...... 74 Table 77. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Tilaberi ...... 77 Table 78. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Tilaberi ...... 77 Table 79. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Tilaberi ...... 78 Table 80. Final convergence Northern Tilaberi ...... 78 Table 81. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Tillabéri ...... 79 Table 82. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Tillabéri...... 80 Table 83. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Tillabéri ...... 81 Table 84. Final convergence Central Tillabéri ...... 81 Table 85. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southern Tillabéri ...... 84 Table 86. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southern Tillabéri ...... 84 Table 87. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southern Tillabéri ...... 85 Table 88. Final convergence Southern Tillabéri ...... 85 Table 89. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Zinder ...... 88 Table 90. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Zinder ...... 88 Table 91. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Zinder...... 89 Table 92. Final convergence Northern Zinder ...... 90 Table 93. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Zinder ...... 92 Table 94. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Zinder ...... 92 Table 95. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Zinder ...... 93 Table 96. Final convergence Central Zinder ...... 93 Table 97. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southern Zinder ...... 96 Table 98. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southern Zinder ...... 96 Table 99. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southern Zinder ...... 97 Table 100. Final convergence Southern Zinder ...... 98

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Acronyms and Abbreviations CEMDD Children Eating Minimum Dietary Diversity CFI chronic food insecurity CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel EVIAM Enquête Conjointe sur la Vulnerabilité à l’Insecurité Alimentaire des Menages FCS Food Consumption Score FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GSU Global Support Unit HDDS Household Dietary Diversity Score HEA Household Economy Approach HH households HHS Household Hunger Scale IDP Internally displaced population INS Institut National de la Statistique ISS Information Support System IPC Integrated Phase Classification LSMS Living Standards Measurement Study MCHN Maternal child health and nutrition NGO Non-governmental organization rCSI reduced coping strategy index SSEXR Starchy Staple Expenditure Ratio UN United Nations USAID U.S. Agency for International Development WFP World Food Programme

Famine Early Warning Systems Network viii Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Executive Summary

Background In May 2018, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), and the Integrated Phase Classification Global Support Unit (IPC GSU) convened stakeholders from a variety of Nigerien ministries, international and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and United Nations (UN) agencies to prepare a chronic food insecurity analysis using IPC tools. The objective of this exercise was to both understand the dynamics of chronic food insecurity in Niger and to inform future chronic analysis within the larger region. Using a range of data on the quantity and quality of food consumption, levels of malnutrition, and a variety of contributing factors, participants classified the severity of chronic food insecurity for 24 zones comprising 13 dominant livelihood zones in Niger. The analysis teams estimated the size of chronically food insecure populations, and highlighted the key limiting and underlying factors. Figure 1 presents the final conclusions of this analysis. Figure 1. Chronic food insecurity classification for Niger

Source: May 2018 Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis Workshop

Summary of Classification Conclusions The IPC-Chronic Classification consists of four levels of chronic food insecurity (CFI) severity, specifically: Minimal CFI (Level 1), Mild CFI (Level 2), Moderate CFI (Level 3), and Severe CFI (Level 4). Analysis considers three food security domains: food consumption (quality), food consumption (quantity), and chronic malnutrition. Based on an analysis of these domains, with data disaggregated for 24 classification zones of Niger (determined by the intersection of Regions and Livelihood Zones), the entire country was classified as Moderate CFI (Level 3), except zone 14 (Southeastern Maradi) and zone 23 (Central Zinder) that were classified as Severe CFI (Level 4). Overall, 32 percent of Niger’s 19.3 million people were classified as Moderate (Level 3) or Severe (Level 4) CFI. The estimated prevalence of Moderate and Severe CFI was highest in Agadez, Diffa, Maradi, Tillaberi, and Zinder regions (Zones 3, 6, 11, 20, 22, 23 and 24) where it ranged between 40 and 50 percent, compared to 30

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 1 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019 to 35 percent in other parts of the country. Collectively, Zinder had the highest prevalence of moderate and severe CFI nationally. The prevalence of moderate and severe CFI was lowest in Southeastern Diffa and Central Maradi, though even here a quarter of the population has moderate and severe CFI. Nationally, one third of Nigerien households face moderate and severe chronic food insecurity, experience seasonal food deficits for two to four months per year, and have poor dietary diversity. Millet, sorghum, and vegetables are widely grown and households in the dryer, northern parts of the country depend on transhumant livestock as primary livelihoods. Many households are also heavily dependent on petty commerce, and the poorest are engaged in more precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood, and forage for animals and work as artisans. Throughout the country, many men migrate during the dry season to work as laborers in southern Niger or other parts of West Africa. As to be expected, access to safe water sources and improved sanitation is problematic for many given the dry, Sahelian conditions. Many also report that the water table is being depleted and pasture is becoming increasingly scarce, requiring transhumant herders to move longer distances with their livestock and camels. Many households are likely to have moderately stunted children and very limited resilience to shocks, such as recurrent drought and desertification due to both climate change and overexploitation of natural resources, such as the Lake Chad Basin in eastern Niger and desert areas of Agadez, Diffa, Tahoua, and Zinder. Table 1. Proportion of population in CFI level classification Regions Classification Pop. Level 1 % Level 2 % Level 3 % Level 4 % # > L3 % > L3 Zones Agadez 1: Eastern 21,426 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Agadez (Bilma) 2: Central Agadez (Arlit, 456,897 182,758 40 114,224 25 91,379 20 68,534 15 159,913 35 Iferouane, Tchirozerine) 3: Western Agadez 104,199 31,259 30 31,259 30 26,049 25 15,629 15 41,678 40 (Aderbisinat, Ingall) Diffa 4: Southeastern Diffa (Bosso, 282,889 99,011 35 113,156 40 42,433 15 28,289 10 70,722 25 Diffa) 5: Central Diffa 157,518 55,131 35 47,255 30 31,503 20 23,627 15 55,130 35 (Maïné Soroa) 6: Western Diffa 120,305 36,091 30 30,076 25 36,091 30 18,046 15 54,137 45 (Goudoumaria) 7: Northeastern 87,782 35,112 40 26,334 30 17,556 20 8,778 10 26,334 30 Diffa (N’Guigmi) 8: Northern 61,932 24,773 40 18,580 30 12,386 20 6,193 10 18,579 30 Diffa (N’Gourti) Dosso 9: Northern 2,212,665 663,799 30 774,433 35 442,533 20 331,900 15 774,433 35 Dosso (ZME05) 10: Southern 325,953 146,679 45 81,488 25 65,190 20 32,595 10 97,785 30 Dosso (Gaya) Maradi 11: Northern 66,237 16,559 25 16,559 25 23,182 35 9,935 15 33,117 50 Maradi (Bermo) 12: Central Maradi 1,504,839 413,830 27.5 752,419 50 225,725 15 112,862 7.5 338,587 23 (Dakoro, Mayahi) 13: Southwestern 568,763 170,629 30 199,067 35 113,752 20 85,314 15 199,066 35 Maradi (Madarounfa) 14: Southeastern Maradi (Aguie, Gazaoua, 1,832,382 549,714 30 641,333 35 274,857 15 366,476 20 641,333 35 Guidan- Roumdji, Tessaoua) Tahoua 15: Northern Tahoua (Abalak, 573,536 114,707 20 258,091 45 114,707 20 86,030 15 200,737 35 Tassara,

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Regions Classification Pop. Level 1 % Level 2 % Level 3 % Level 4 % # > L3 % > L3 Zones Tchintabaraden , Tillia) 16: Southwestern Tahoua 1,177,342 470,936 40 353,202 30 294,335 25 58,867 5 353,202 30 (Bagaroua, Birni NKonni, Illéla, Malbaza) 17: Southeastern Tahoua (Bouza, 1,638,543 655,417 40 491,562 30 327,708 20 163,854 10 491,562 30 Keita, Madaoua) Zone 18: Central Tahoua 717,259 286,903 40 215,177 30 143,451 20 71,725 10 215,176 30 (Tahoua) Tillaberi 19: Northern TIlaberi (Abala, 333,857 83,464 25 133,542 40 66,771 20 50,078 15 116,849 35 Ayorou, Banibangou) 20: Central Tilaberi (Bankilare, 1,595,944 398,986 25 558,580 35 398,986 25 239,391 15 638,377 40 Filingué, Oullam, Téra, Tillabéri) 21: Southern Tilaberi (Gotheye, Kollo, 1,458,318 291,663 20 656,243 45 291,663 20 218,747 15 510,410 35 Say, Tagazar, Torodi) Zinder 22: Northern Zinder (Tarka, 168,192 50,458 30 33,638 20 75,686 45 12,614 5 88,300 53 Tesker) 23: Central Zinder (Damagaram 1,256,731 377,019 30 251,346 20 377,019 30 251,346 20 628,365 50 Takaya, Gouré, Tanout) 24: Southern Zinder (Dungass, Magaria, 2,625,311 656,328 25 918,859 35 656,328 25 393,797 15 1,050,125 40 Matamè, Mirriahm, Takeyta) Grand Total 19,348,820 5,811.226 30 6,716,423 35 4,149,290 21 2,654,627 14 6,803,917 35 IPC Chronic Food Insecurity Level Descriptions Level 1 – No CFI In a common year, households (HH) are continuously able to access and consume a diet of acceptable quantity and quality for an active and healthy life. HH livelihoods are sustainable and resilient to shocks. HHs are not likely to have stunted children. Level 2 – Mild CFI In a common year, HHs are able to access a diet of adequate quantity, but do not always consume a diet of adequate quality. HH livelihoods are borderline sustainable, though resilience to shocks is limited. HHs are not likely to have moderately or severely stunted children. Level 3 – Moderate CFI In a common year, HHs have ongoing mild deficits in food quantity and/or seasonal food quantity deficits for 2 to 4 months of the year and consistently do not consume a diet of adequate quality. HH livelihoods are marginally sustainable and resilience to shocks is very limited. HHs are likely to have moderately stunted children. Level 4 - Severe CFI In a common year, HHs have seasonal deficits in quantity of food for more than 4 months of the year and consistently do not consume a diet of adequate quality. HH livelihoods are very marginal and are not resilient. HHs are likely to have severely stunted children. Food Consumptions Quality In order to assess food consumption quality for each zone, the analysis teams reviewed a variety of available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including direct evidence such as children (6–23 months) eating minimum dietary

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diversity (CEMDD) and starchy staple expenditure ratio Table 2. Food consumption quality by zone (SSEXR) collected for the DHS (2012) and the Niger Classification Zones Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Government’s Enquête Conjointe sur la Vulnerabilité à 1: Eastern Agadez N/A N/A N/A l’Insecurité Alimentaire des Menages au Niger (EVIAM) 2: Central Agadez 30-40% 35-45% 20-30% (2013 and 2015) and the enquête nationale sur les 3: Western Agadez 20% 80% conditions de vie des ménages et l'agriculture (LSMS) 2014 4: Southeastern Diffa 35-45% 40-50% 10-20% from the World Bank (2014). Indirect evidence was drawn from indicators such as Minimum Acceptable Diet (DHS 5: Central Diffa 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% 2012 and USAID DDL 2013), child dietary diversity (DHS 6: Western Diffa 30-40% 25-35% 30-40% 2012, EVIAM 2013 and 2015) and child consumption of 7: Northeastern Diffa 35-45% 50-60% 0-10% fruits, vegetables, meat and dairy (DHS 2012). 8: Northern Diffa 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% Based on reliability scores assigned by each of the review 9: Northern Dosso 15-25% 45-55% 25-35% teams, they concluded that the strongest piece of evidence 10: Southern Dosso 30% 25% 45% on dietary quality was the SSEXR data collected by the World 11: Northern Maradi 15-25% 55-65% 15-25% Bank in 2014 for each zone. None of the indirect evidence 12: Central Maradi 25% 70% 5% had an equally high reliability since such data was collected 13: Southwestern Maradi 10-20% 55-65% 20-30% for entire regions, e.g., Agadez, rather than the specific 14: Southeastern Maradi 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% classification zones analyzed for the study. In addition, data 15: Northern Tahoua 20% 20% 60% collected for the entire country in 2010 and 2012 were 16: Southwestern 40% 30% 30% deemed to have lower reliability since they were Tahoua exceptional years. Data collected between late 2015 to early 17: Southeastern Tahoua 45% 40% 15% 2018 in the southeastern areas of Diffa region that border 18: Central Tahoua 50% 30% 20% Nigeria and Chad were directly affected by the Boko Haram 19: Northern Tillabéri 16% 84% insurgency and were also considered exceptional years for 20: Central Tillabéri 30% 50% 20% these areas, thus data was less reliable. 21: Southern Tillabéri 10-20% 60-70% 15-25% 22: Northern Zinder 10% 25% 65% The most reliable data from SSEXR was collected only once in 2014, thus it was not possible to identify a trend or make 23: Central Zinder 25-35% 40-50% 20-30% statistically valid comparisons. However, current data 24: Southern Zinder 20% 30% 50% reveals that some zones have a more profound problem Figure 2. Proportion of households facing severe quality with food consumption quality, notably the following deficits (Level 3 and 4) by area of analysis classification zones: Southern Dosso (10), Northern Tahoua (15), Northern Zinder (22), and Southern Zinder (24). The lack of dietary diversity is likely linked to poor incomes, constrained access to a diverse array of foods and limited knowledge about the importance of dietary diversity. One of the shortfalls of this analysis concerns both the limited data available on this indicator and lack of historical data that would point to specific trends. In addition, data for CEMDD was only available by regions rather than the bifurcated zones used for this analysis. Food Consumption Quantity The analysis teams reviewed indicators pertinent to food consumption quantity data drawn from various direct and indirect evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct Source: May 2018 Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis Workshop evidence included Food Consumption Score (FCS) (Niger Government (2015–2017) World Food Programme (WFP) Food Security Assessments (2008–2016), NCA 2015, EVIAM 2013, 2015 and 2017), the household dietary diversity score (Niger Government 2015-2017, USAID DDL 2013 and EVIAM 2013, 2015 and 2017), Household Economy Approach (HEA) Survival Deficit (FEWS NET 2013), minimum meal frequency for children (WFP 2013), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS) (USAID DDL 2013). Important indirect evidence included the Reduced Coping

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Strategies Index (rCSI) (WFP FSA 2008–2016), number of Table 3. Food consumption quality by zone meals consumed per day (WFP 2014), months of household Classification Zones Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 food stocks (EVIAM 2013, 2015 and 2016 and ESS Niger 1: Eastern Agadez 50-60% 25-35% 10-20% Government 2017), and presence of hunger in the 2: Central Agadez 50-60% 20-30% 15-25% household (USAID DDL 2013). Many of the analysis teams 3: Western Agadez 35-45% 30-40% 20-30% found that FCS, HEA Survival Deficit, and minimum meal 4: Southeastern Diffa 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% frequency for children were among some of the most 5: Central Diffa 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% reliable direct evidence since such data was collected by 6: Western Diffa 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% classification zone. Some of the most reliable indirect 7: Northeastern Diffa 60-70% 10-20% 15-25% evidence was collected by WFP such as rCSI, number of 8: Northern Diffa 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% meals consumed per day and household dietary diversity, 9: Northern Dosso 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% which was also collected by the Niger government for the 10: Southern Dosso 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% 2013 and 2015 EVIAM reports. 11: Northern Maradi 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Food consumption quantity appears to be worsening for 12: Central Maradi 70-80% 15-25% 0-10% most of Nigerien households based on reliable data from 13: Southwestern 55-65% 15-25% 15-25% FCS gathered by the Niger Government and WFP between Maradi 14: Southeastern 2008 and 2017. Current data reveals that some zones have 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% Maradi a greater problem with food consumption quantity, notably 15: Northern Tahoua 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Western Agadez (3), Southeastern Maradi (14), and 16: Southwestern 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% Northern Tillabéri (19). Central Maradi (12) appears to have Tahoua 17: Southeastern the best overall food consumption quantity. The conclusion 65-75% 10-20% 10-20% from this study can be that overall crop and livestock Tahoua 18: Central Tahoua 70% 20% 10% production has the potential to sufficiently covering food 25-35% 20-30% needs, but poor incomes, recurrent drought and erratic 19: Northern Tillabéri 40-50% rainfall, and high food prices may constrain the ability of 20: Central Tillabéri 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% poor households to purchase their entire food basket on a 21: Southern Tillabéri 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% regular basis. Other evidence shows that households cope 22: Northern Zinder 45-55% 25-35% 10% with the challenges extant in this challenging, dry 23: Central Zinder 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% environment by diversifying livelihoods and migrating 24: Southern Zinder 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% during the dry season for work to enhance incomes, ostensibly to bolster food consumption quantity, among Figure 3. Proportion of households facing severe quantity other pressing household needs. deficits (Level 3 and 4) by area of analysis Nutrition The analysis teams reviewed indicators pertinent to nutrition data drawn from various direct and indirect evidence collected between 2010-–2017. Direct evidence indicators included data on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2013 and 2015 Institut National de la Statistique (INS) surveys. In a limited number of zones, stunting data (chronic malnutrition) from SMART surveys conducted in 2010–2012, NCA in 2015, and the Niger Government’s Enquête Démographique et de Santé du Niger (EDSN) report from 2017 were available. Indirect evidence was drawn from USAID DDL 2013 report related to underweight and wasting (acute malnutrition) among children 6–59 months. Some Source: May 2018 Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis Workshop nutrition data was deemed unreliable since it had been collected by region rather than department level, and though the methodology and sample size of the DHS conducted in 2012 was solid, this was considered an exceptional year. The lack of reliable and recent direct evidence on nutrition, such as stunting in children 6–59 months makes it difficult to discern accurate levels of malnutrition at present or identify historical trends. The data collected for the DHS 2012 occurred during an exceptional year and it was collected by region rather than Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

departments. However, data collected for the INS surveys in Table 4. Nutrition by zone 2013 and 2015 was deemed more reliable and collected at Classification Zones Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 the department level. Regrettably, sources from other 1: Eastern Agadez 0% 0% 0% studies were also missing apart from a handful of cases. In 2: Central Agadez 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% addition, indirect evidence was also largely absent. Based on 3: Western Agadez 65% 20% 15% the data that was available, the highest prevalence of 4: Southeastern Diffa 40-50% 20-30% 25-35% malnutrition was evident in Southeastern and Central Diffa 5: Central Diffa 40-50% 20-30% 25-35% (Zones 4 and 5), Northern, Central, Southwestern and 6: Western Diffa 50-60% 20-30% 15-25% Southeastern Maradi (Zones 11, 12, 13 and 14) and 7: Northeastern Diffa 65% 20-25% 10-15% Southern Zinder (Zone 24). Notably, the high prevalence of 8: Northern Diffa 50-60% 25-35% 10-20% malnutrition throughout Maradi Region was inconsistent 9: Northern Dosso 55-65% 15-25% 10-20% with the region’s relatively better food consumption quality and quantity data. 10: Southern Dosso 65% 20% 15% 11: Northern Maradi 50% 20% 30% Summary of Underlying and Limiting Factors 12: Central Maradi 40-50% 20-30% 25-35% As a landlocked country that is mostly made up of desert and 13: Southwestern 35-45% 30-40% 20-30% increasingly impacted by both climate change and Maradi 14: Southeastern insecurity, Nigeriens have traditionally employed a range of 30-40% 30-40% 25-35% Maradi coping mechanisms over many centuries to survive in such 15: Northern Tahoua 60% 20% 20% a challenging environment. The bulk of the population is 16: Southwestern 60-70% 20-30% 5-15% concentrated in the southern part of the country where Tahoua 17: Southeastern agro-ecological conditions support farming of staple grains 50-60% 20-30% 15-25% such as millet and sorghum, as well as irrigated vegetables Tahoua and a variety of cash crops. Livestock are valued throughout 18: Central Tahoua 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Niger but inhabitants in the northern regions that abut and 19: Northern Tillabéri 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% include the Sahara Desert depend on transhumant and 20: Central Tillabéri 60% 25% 15% nomadic migration with livestock and camels as their main 21: Southern Tillabéri 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% livelihood. Nonetheless, desertification and recurrent 22: Northern Zinder 50% 30% 20% drought are having an adverse effect on pasture, crop 23: Central Zinder 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% production and the water table. Many are also migrating 24: Southern Zinder 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% seasonally during the dry season to bolster their incomes. As a result, food access is a problem for many households due Figure 4. Proportion of households facing severe chronic to low incomes and the lack of road infrastructure in remote malnutrition (Level 3 and 4) by area of analysis areas. Similarly, food availability is constrained by the decline in crop production caused by erratic rainfall and recurrent drought and shortage of land in the most productive zones. Worsening indicators related to food consumption quantity, as noted above, also support this conclusion. Finally, the medium to high prevalence of malnutrition among children may be linked to limited accessibility of diversified foods, the lack of knowledge about the importance of a diversified diet, extremely low literacy (12 percent) and school attendance rates, and limited availability of health services and agents in remote areas. Access to potable water and improved sanitation also pose a problem for many. Recurring hazards such as drought, animal and crop disease, flooding, and more recent Source: May 2018 Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis Workshop insecurity caused by Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin and various armed groups near the Malian border in Tillaberi and Tahoua departments also contribute to food insecurity for affected populations. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

IPC Chronic Analysis Background Methodology This chronic food security analysis for Niger was conducted following the IPC tools and protocols for chronic food insecurity analysis. Tools and procedures for chronic food insecurity analysis were released by the IPC as an addendum to the IPC v2.0 manual and were rolled out beginning in 2014. The IPC defines chronic food insecurity as “food insecurity that persists over time, mainly due to structural causes.” Under this definition, “persistence” is defined as food insecurity that exists even during non-exception periods (i.e., periods when no atypical events occur). In practice, IPC chronic analysis means collecting available data from the past 10 years, analyzing it in the context of the IPC’s Chronic Reference Table (Table 1), and giving more weight during this analysis to data that was collected during non-exceptional periods. More information on IPC tools and procedures for chronic food insecurity analysis can be found on the IPC’s website at www.ipcinfo.org. The analysis in Niger was coordinated by a technical committee composed of members from the CILSS, FEWS NET, the government of Niger, and the IPC GSU. The CILSS leads the Cadre Harmonisé, the system through which nations in West Africa conduct food security analysis and present regional food assistance needs. All the agencies worked jointly in implementing this first chronic food security analysis in West Africa. Funding for the analysis exercise was provided by USAID through the FEWS NET activity. The process of analysis for Niger began with stakeholder meetings in Niamey in September 2016. These awareness raising meetings with key partners and stakeholders were facilitated by the Cadre Harmonisé national unit in Niger, which is chaired by the Ministry of Agriculture. During these discussions, partner agencies selected analysts within their organizations who would participate in the analysis, identified exceptional periods during the last 10 years, and discussed data requirements for analysis. Both 2010 and 2012 were classified as exceptional due to drought. Leading up to the analysis, available food security data and information from the previous 10 years was collected from partner agencies. These data were re-analyzed as needed, and then entered into online analysis worksheets on the IPC’s Information Support System (ISS) by a team of data consultants. Brief context documents were also drafted for each classification zone in Niger and pre-loaded into the ISS. One challenge that the analysis team confronted was that much of the data was still being entered during the first seven days of the analysis workshop. As such, the teams had to work on the zone overviews early in the second week while the final data was being inputted. As a result, it did not enable the teams to maximize the time available to conduct the analysis. In the week prior to the analysis, analysts received a five-day IPC training on chronic food insecurity analysis. The training covered all IPC tools and procedures for chronic food insecurity analysis and was facilitated by the IPC GSU and FEWS NET. Participants in the training, as well as the analysis the following week, included analysts from government, NGOs, and UN agencies in addition to those from the CILSS, IPC, and FEWS NET. A full list of participants can be found in Annex 1. The chronic food insecurity analysis workshop was held the week of April 30, 2018 in Niamey, Niger. Members of the analysis team were divided into Zone analysis groups based on their local knowledge of particular areas of the country. Analysis groups began by considering whether there were any county-specific exceptional periods from the previous 10 years. Analysts then completed a data inventory. While most of the data and information that would be useful for classification was pre-identified and entered into the ISS portal, analysts were able to enter additional data and information that was available. Working in their analysis groups, analysts then considered four food security domains: contributing factors, dietary quality, dietary quantity, and nutritional status. During and after analyzing these separate domains, the groups used a convergence of evidence approach to classify households into the four levels of chronic food insecurity. Lastly, underlying and limiting factors of chronic food insecurity were identified. All analyses were vetted by the core technical advisory group. Following the analysis, a technical writing consultant, who had participated in the analysis drafted the analysis report based on the content and classifications entered into the ISS. This report was first reviewed by FEWS NET and some minor revisions were made. It was then shared with the Niger Cadre Harmonisé national unit, the CILSS, and the IPC GSU for feedback before release.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Chronic Food Insecurity Niger Area of Analysis Overviews

Agadez Region 1: Eastern Agadez - Oases: Dates, Salt, and Trade Dominant Zone Departments: Bilma Eastern Agadez is a sparsely populated department located Figure 5. Zone 1 Reference map in the most remote part of Niger and part of the Ténéré - a region in the south-central Sahara Desert consisting of a vast plain of sand that stretches from northeastern Niger into western Chad. It encompasses the livelihood zone known as N01: Northeast Oases: Dates, Salt and Trade, and Bilma Department. The population of 21,426 live in a handful of oases scattered throughout the department. Bilma town is the largest of these with mostly “urban” inhabitants. Salt production (table salt and salt lick for livestock) is the most important livelihood where it has been a source of income for many centuries.1 Nonetheless, production is under threat as many salt pans have been buried by encroaching sand dunes and strong winds. In addition, farm gate salt prices are low since they primarily Source: FEWS NET sell to passing desert caravans due to non-existent roads (ibid). Most households have access to some irrigated land to grow wheat, vegetables, and other fruits for domestic consumption and the local market. Wealthier households use motorized pumps to remove water from wells whereas poorer ones use hand operated devices known as shadufs to remove well water for irrigation and home use. In oasis towns such as Bilma, dates are prevalent and represent the most important commodity exported from the area. An average household may have 100 date palm trees over 200-500 m². The wealthiest households have date plantations that are 20 acres or more. Given the extremely low precipitation in this zone, there is only a brief rainy season that occurs in August. As noted, irrigation is necessary for most crop production in Bilma. Dates are harvested between September and November and sold in December. Salt extraction occurs from January to August each year. The main shocks households confront in the zone include insecurity, crop pests, and sand storms. Insecurity in the region has a negative impact on households’ livelihoods and ability to access markets to purchase their needs. Sand storms and agricultural pests negatively impact date palm production and some irrigated crops. In addition to these shocks, two villages were devastated by a fire in early 2017 that affected 254 people and 1,007 date palm tree were destroyed. A rare flood in mid-2017 destroyed 119 homes and displaced 761 people. Food security parameters in Eastern Agadez Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to the zone, the analysis team confronted the challenge of limited data relevant to the zone apart from children (6–23 months) eating minimum dietary diversity (CEMDD) collected for the DHS in 2012 and the EVIAM in 2013 and 2015. However, this data was deemed to have limited reliability since the indicator referred to the entire Agadez Department. The zone is sparsely populated and more remote with different livelihoods compared to NE-02. Indirect evidence was missing, but there was some data related to underlying/causal factors pertaining to livelihood strategies, percentage of population below poverty line, and percentage of cash expenditure spent on food. Such evidence reveals that Bilma households spend most of their income on food - 70–80 percent and the same range of households are below the national poverty line of $1.90 per day. A survey conducted for Eastern Agadez showed that households here diversify their incomes with an emphasis on crop production, petty commerce, and salaried work. Few households rely on precarious sources of income such as sale of wood or casual labor. In contrast to other areas in the Agadez Region, practically

1 http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/05/protecting-nigers-desert-salt-pans/ Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

no households rely on livestock. Nonetheless, the lack of reliable direct and indirect evidence on Food Consumption Quality did not permit the analysis team to reach a minimum confidence level to classify this indicator. Table 5. Key indicators of dietary quality in Eastern Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 15% 85% Children eating minimum dietary diversity 2013 EVIAM 1 45% 55% 2015 EVIAM 1 22% 78% Conclusion Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year. Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to food consumption quantity in Eastern Agadez drawn from direct evidence such as Food Consumption Score (FCS) and indirect evidence using household dietary diversity. The FCS was derived from indicators collected by the Niger Government and World Food Programme (WFP), while indirect evidence was sourced from the government’s EVIAM studies in 2014, 2016, and 2017. Based on FCS data alone, it suggests that a minority of households (5–15 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). Nonetheless, there was a spike in food deficits in 2015 whereby nearly a third reported poor food consumption (WFP 2015). In addition, household dietary diversity score (HDDS) data reveals that over half of households have poor dietary diversity – a figure that is inconsistent with the FCS data and percentage of households in Level 4. Indirect evidence related to the number of food groups consumed in the past 24 hours was not consistent from year to year. Various studies showed that between 2 and 36 percent of households consume less than three food groups per day, thereby placing them in a Level 4 category. The same direct evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. Multi-year FCS suggest between 7 and 23 percent of households are in Level 3, respectively. Indirect evidence using household dietary diversity showed that between 10 and 38 percent of households are in Level 3. Table 6. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Eastern Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2013 WFP FSA 2 82% 15% 4% 2014 WFP FSA 2 81% 7% 12% 2015 WFP FSA 2 46% 23% 32% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2015 Niger Gov 1 13% 50% 37%

2016 Niger Gov 1 33% 33% 33% 2017 Niger Gov 1 74% 17% 9% 2017 EVIAM 1 22% 21% 57% 2015 EVIAM 2 19% 29% 53% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 4% 15% 81% Household Dietary Diversity Score 2016 Niger Gov 2 0% 67% 33% (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 1 47% 41% 12% 2017 Niger Gov 1 14% 32% 54%

2014 EVIAM 2 54% 33% 13% Household dietary diversity 2016 EVIAM 2 26% 38% 36% 2018 ? 1 88% 10% 2% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE Conclusion 50-60% 25-35% 10-20%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 9 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most households produce food for consumption with irrigated well water. Earnings from date palm and salt production are reported to be low and vary by zone but support households’ ability to buy food. Household dependence on the market for food and their coping strategies when their food stocks are depleted are unclear. Nutrition The analysis team only had a single indicator pertinent to nutrition data for Eastern Agadez drawn from stunting data from the 2012 DHS. There was no indirect evidence related to nutrition. Stunting data was determined to have low reliability since it was collected in an exceptional year and pertinent to the entire region, thus unlikely indicative of the situation in the zone. However, this single piece of data shows high prevalence of stunting in children 6–59 months. The general lack of various data points and low reliability of stunting data did not permit the team to reach a minimum confidence level to classify the zone. Table 7. Key indicators of nutrition in Eastern Agadez

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Stunting among Children 2012 DHS 1 60% 14% 26% (6-59 months) DIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion

Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from contributing factors suggest that 60–70 percent of the population have access to an improved water source, but in many cases, it is at least a 30-minute walk to access water. Further, only 30 percent of households practice good hygiene practices. The vast and remote nature of Eastern Agadez may also constrain access to health services, diverse foodstuffs, and the adoption of good nutrition by adults and their young children. Overall findings The general lack of data on Eastern Agadez did not permit the analysis team to determine a breakdown of the population who face varying levels of chronic food insecurity. Table 8. Key indicators of nutrition in Eastern Agadez Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 0-10 0-10 10-20 70-80 Food consumption - Quality Food consumption - Quantity Nutrition Overall convergence Population affected Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Bilma to improve their food security status, including: • Lack of roads to/within Eastern Agadez contributes to higher food prices and constrains food access • Extremely low precipitation constrains agricultural production, but necessitates livelihood diversification • Poor access to improved water and sanitation constrains issues related to health and food utilization

Key conclusions and justification Insufficient data to determine justification.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 10 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

2: Central Agadez - Air Massif Irrigated Gardening Dominant Zone Departments: Arlit, Iferouane, Tchirozerine Most of the population of these departments fall largely Figure 6. Zone 2 Reference map within the Aïr Massif Irrigated Gardening livelihoods zone (NE-02), with some in Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism (NE-03) and Cropping/Herding with High Work Outmigration (NE-06) livelihood zones. The collective population of this zone is estimated at 456,897 (INS 2012) and includes the departments of Arlit, Iferouane, and Tchirozerine. This region in the Sahara Desert is generally mountainous and rocky with valleys and some plains that have cultivable soils suitable for vegetable gardening. Annual rainfall ranges between 150–300 mm and the population in this zone depend on irrigated farming and livestock as their main livelihoods. Despite limited precipitation, wild grasses and pasturage support small livestock. Camels are broadly used for animal traction and transport. Production of irrigated Source: FEWS NET millet, wheat, maize, and vegetables in the Aïr zone represent the primary source of revenue for households. Onions are the most important vegetable produced, followed by Irish potatoes, garlic, and tomatoes. Citrus fruits are grown in the small enclave of Timia. The poorest households work for more affluent households as agricultural laborers or in towns and they are heavily dependent on the market to procure their food. In addition to these predominant livelihoods, the Agadez region is home to Niger’s most important source of foreign exchange and exported mineral – uranium. Uranium is mined close to the mining towns of Arlit and Akokan, 900 km north-east of the capital Niamey on the southern border of the Sahara desert and on the western range of the Aïr mountains.2 There are three major mines licensed to the French company Areva (rebranded Orano) known as SOMAIR in Arlit/Arlette (Arlit commune), COMINAK in Akouta, Imorauren (80 km south of Arlit) and a Chinese investment known as SOMINA in Azelik (150 km northwest of Agadez) (ibid). These mines have created employment opportunities but also pose health risks to the local population since uranium’s first discovery in 1957 in Azelik. Uranium production has decreased in recent years due to low global prices. Agadez’s limited rainfall occurs between July and September when most of the crops are planted. Wheat and vegetables are planted in September and this is the period when poorer households can earn income from agricultural labor and many people return from the mass exodus that occurs during the lean season. The harvest and marketing of crops occurs in March and April. Apart from agriculture, some households grow and harvest leaves from moringa trees, prepare charcoal, or work as artisans throughout the year. The Tuareg are the dominant group in this zone and are known for their skill as silversmiths and create jewelry. One part of this zone is dominated by trade, such as the town of Agadez where goods have traversed the Trans Saharan trade route for centuries. The poorest households comprise 24 percent of the population and have very few assets, such as small ruminants, limited irrigated land and work as laborers or sell wood or animal fodder to supplement their income. Food security parameters in Central Agadez Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Central Agadez, the analysis team reviewed a variety of available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) and the starchy staple expenditure ratio (SSEXR) collected for the DHS (2012) and the World Bank (Table 9). Indirect evidence was drawn from the 2012 DHS and EVIAM 2013 and 2015 related to the dietary diversity of children 6–24 months.

2 http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/niger.aspx Famine Early Warning Systems Network 11 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR collected by the World Bank in 2014. It indicated that 53 percent of households face Mild Chronic Food Insecurity (Level 2) and 4 percent face Moderate or Severe Chronic Food Insecurity (Levels 3 and 4). These proportions proved difficult to converge given the variance in the figures. Children’s dietary diversity data were the most prominent indicators but were ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 30–40 percent of households were in Level 1, 30–40 percent in Level 2, and 25–35 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that households spend over 70 percent of their income on food but the harsh conditions of the desert require that the majority of households have diverse income sources and are able to cover more than 150 percent of their survival needs. Despite the apparent resilience of households in the zone, dietary diversity among children is poor. Though HDDS data is missing, the SSEXR data appears quite good and may reflect the diverse number of vegetables grown in this region. Table 9. Key indicators of dietary quality in Central Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Children eating minimum 2012 DHS 1 15% 85% dietary diversity

EEE Starchy Staple Expenditure DIRECT 2014 World Bank 2 44% 53% 4% EVIDENCE Ratio

2012 DHS 1 48% 52% Dietary diversity of children 6- 2013 EVIAM 1 55% 45% 24 mos EVIAM INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 1 78% 22%

Conclusion 30-40% 35-45% 20-30% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Central Agadez drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2013 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and Minimum Meal Frequency (children) indicators were collected by WFP and the Niger Government in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. The Food Security Assessment and the Household Economy Approach (HEA) Survival Deficit indicators were collected by FEWS NET in 2016 (Table 10). Indirect evidence was drawn from household dietary diversity data in the 2016 EVIAM report. Reliable, direct evidence (2013–2017) suggests that a minority of households (15–25 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by the absence of households with HEA survival deficits, and roughly a third of children do not eat a minimum number of meals per day, i.e., considered Level 3 and 4. However, there was an improvement in FCS between 2013 and 2017 as well as HDDS between 2015 and 2017. Indirect evidence was derived from dietary diversity for households in Arlit, Iferouane and Tchirozerine with wide discrepancies noted between areas. For example, only 8.6 percent of Arlit households had consumed less than three food types in the last 24 hours compared to 26.8 percent in Iferouane and 41.8 percent in Tchirozerine. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Central Agadez were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP between 2013 and 2017 suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that shows steady improvement for FCS, but less so for dietary diversity. Data on children eating the minimum meal frequency was also available, and considered, though it was combined with Level 4 data and shows that 30–40 percent of children do not eat the minimum number of meals. Based on an assessment of these various data, remaining 50–60 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that the challenging conditions of the desert necessitate livelihood diversification. Livestock rearing and petty commerce appear to be the most important livelihoods followed by agriculture, handicrafts and salaried work. Very few households engage in the sale of wood/forage or casual labor which are normally indicative of poor households. Given the harsh climatic conditions, farming does not produce enough food for consumption throughout the

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 12 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019 year, so it can be assumed that most households are dependent on the market for food purchases or migrate seasonally and typical of the nomadic nature of the people who live here. Nonetheless, indirect evidence shows that households have been able to increase the availability of food stocks stored in the home for longer periods when comparing data from 2013 and 2017 and more recent years. Table 10. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Central Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2013 WFP FSA 2 55% 26% 19% 2014 WFP FSA 2 64% 14% 23% 2015 WFP FSA 2 91% 7% 2% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2015 Niger Gov 1 40% 31% 29% 2016 Niger Gov 1 67% 22% 11%

2017 Niger Gov 1 53% 24% 23% 2017 EVIAM 2 84% 8% 8% 2015 EVIAM 2 60% 35% 5% 2015 Niger Gov 2 13% 35% 53% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 29% 52% 19%

DIRECT EVIDENCE Score (HDDS 2017 EVIAM 1 48% 36% 16% 2017 Niger Gov 1 31% 47% 22% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% 2013 WFP FSA 2 71% 29% Minimum Meal Frequency 2014 WFP FSA 2 74% 26% (children) 2015 WFP FSA 2 78% 22%

2016 EVIAM 2 49% (Arlit) 42% 9%

Household Dietary Diversity 2016 EVIAM 2 4% (Iferouane) 69% 27% EVIAM INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE 2016 2 7% (Tchirozerine) 51% 42%

Conclusion 50-60% 20-30% 15-25% Nutrition The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to nutrition data for Central Agadez drawn from the DHS and EVIAMs conducted in 2013 and 2015. Direct evidence indicators included data on stunting from the 2012 DHS. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity among children was drawn from the EVIAM 2013 and 2015. The analysis team relied heavily upon direct evidence on stunting rates from the most recent DHS (2012). Nonetheless, indirect evidence from dietary diversity among children also supported a similar conclusion. The convergence of evidence on nutritional status from these indicators suggest the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 11. Key indicators of nutrition in Central Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 59% (Tchiro & Agadez) 16% 26% Stunting among Children (6- 2012 DHS 1 60% (Agadez Region) 14% 26% 59 months) 2013 INS 2 65% 26% 9% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 76% 17% 7%

2013 EVIAM 1 45% 55% Dietary Diversity among children 2015 EVIAM 1 22% 78% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 13 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

The low prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Agadez Region. Reliable data reveals high moderate and severe stunting rates at 17 percent and 7 percent, respectively (INS 2015). Indirect evidence shows that dietary diversity among children worsened between 2013 and 2015. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Agadez based on poor dietary diversity among children, 2015 stunting rates and access to potable water is problematic, requiring most households to walk more than 30 minutes to procure water. Sanitation practices appear to have improved dramatically since 2013 based on more recent studies. The limited number of health facilities and health workers in this extremely remote and large region also remain a challenge for improving health outcomes. Overall findings Despite extremely challenging conditions due to the climate and remote nature of the Agadez region, SSEXR data suggest that households have diverse dietary quality, though some improvement is necessary for children. FCS data show an improvement between 2013 and 2015. Households have also been effective in ensuring food supplies by employing diverse livelihood opportunities per indirect evidence and larger food stocks stored at the home. Nonetheless, many households in the zone remain chronically food insecure, possibly due to the low-return on income generating activities, extremely low literacy rates and lack of improved health practices and access to care that are indicative of high stunting rates among children 659 months. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 12. Final convergence Central Agadez Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 5-15% 5-15% 15-25% 55-65% Food consumption - Quality 30-40% 35-45% 20-30% Food consumption - Quantity 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Nutrition 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Overall convergence 35-45% 20-30% 15-25% 10-20% Population affected 182,758 114,224 91,379 68,534 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Central Agadez to improve their food security status, including: • Low incomes • Remarkably low precipitation • Low literacy rate and school attendance • High stunting rates • Poor access to drinking water

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Agadez is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet, and likely have moderately stunted children. This population has diverse livelihoods, (livestock, petty commerce, handicrafts – ostensibly Tuareg silver jewelry, and some salaried workers). The poorest households are engaged in casual labor and the sale of wood and animal fodder. The harsh Saharan conditions suggest that households in this region are quite resilient but inadequate access to health care, water, and education lead to poor health outcomes. Food availability appears to be good and households living in or near larger towns will have better market access. Low incomes for the poorest households will certainly constrain purchasing power, consumption quality, and nutrition to a greater degree.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 14 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

3: Western Agadez - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism Dominant Zone Departments: Ingall, Aderbissinat This zone near the Malian border includes the departments Figure 7. Zone 3 Reference map of Aderbissinat and Ingall in the Transhumant and Nomad Pastroalism Belt (NE-03). The region is primarily sandy steppe with brush and has a small population of 104,199 (INS 2012). Pastoralism is the only type of viable livelihood in this dry zone that only receives 100–200 mm rainfall per year. Though the pasture is ideal for large herds, pastoralists must constantly move their herds to seasonal pasture, traversing a broad circuit in the vast department from transhumant nomadic villages. In this challenging environment, it is essential for pastoralists to maintain a delicate equilibrium of sharing available pasture and water points with each other. Most transhumant herders tend to be Peul who manage their livestock and camels in a smaller region since they need to drink more frequently compared Source: FEWS NET to camels. Nomadic ethnic groups such as the Touaregs and Arabic speakers traverse the northern parts of the zone for pasture that can only be reached by camels who can travel longer distances without water. As noted, the primary livelihood here is livestock rearing, following by agropastoralism and irrigated agriculture. The pastoral zone includes nomadic populations (Peuhls and Touaregs) and transhumant populations. The more sedentary households tend to survive on both livestock and agriculture. There is limited vegetable gardening near ponds and in the Irhazer Basin. The inhabitants of this sparsely populated pastoral zone are mostly poor pastoralists who work as herdsmen. Despite the fact that many men migrate seasonally for work, pastoral communities such as this one are very dependent on one another for their revenue. Drought is the principal menace that all households confront and even though food insecurity is quite rare here, when it does occur, it is catastrophic. The rainy season is between July and September and transhumant migration occurs between October and May. This period coincides with the peak demand for casual labor and migration outside the zone. Households rely on the market to procure their cereal throughout the year. Food security parameters in Western Agadez Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Western Agadez, the analysis team confronted the challenge of having limited direct or indirect evidence to make any assessment. The only direct evidence available was for CEMDD and this revealed that 81 percent of children have poor diversity. Given the lack of data, it was determined that 80 percent of the population have dietary quality in Level 2, 3, and 4. Indirect evidence was absent but there was some data related to underlying/causal factors pertaining to livelihood strategies, percentage of population below poverty line, percentage of cash expenditure spent on food. Such evidence reveals that 75–85 percent of households spend 70 percent or more of their income on food and 85 percent are below the national poverty line of $1.90 per day. A survey conducted for Zone 3 showed that households here depend heavily on livestock as their primary livelihood and petty commerce and crop production is limited to specific regions. Practically no households rely on precarious sources of income such as sale of wood or casual labor. Despite this information, the lack of reliable direct and indirect evidence on Food Consumption Quality did not permit the analysis team to reach a minimum confidence level to classify this indicator. Table 13. Key indicators of dietary quality in Western Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Direct Evidence Niger 2015 2 21% 79% Children Eating Minimum Dietary Diversity Government Conclusion 20% 80%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 15 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to food consumption quantity in Western Agadez drawn from direct evidence such as FCS, Household Dietary Diversity, and HEA Survival Deficit. The FCS was derived from indicators collected by WFP in 2014 and 2015 for the Food Security Assessment and by the government in 2015, 2016 and 2017. Indirect evidence was absent. The most reliable FCS data shows less than 10 percent in Level 4. However, dietary diversity was somewhat poor, ranging from 6 to 43 percent of households in Level 4. The HEA Survival Deficit supports the finding that food consumption quantity may be quite good in Western Agadez despite the extremely dry and challenging conditions that households face here. Other indirect evidence on food availability related to limiting factors shows that in the Agadez Region, anywhere from a quarter to nearly 90 percent of households have only one month of food stocks, and this varies significantly year to year. Overall, nearly a quarter of households (20–30 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP between 2014 to 2017 and HDDS data suggest 30–40 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that shows some deterioration. The remaining 35–45 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Table 14. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Western Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2014 WFP FSA 2 94% 4% 2% 2015 WFP FSA 2 88% 9% 3% 2015 Niger Gov 1 25% 10% 65% Food Consumption Score (FCS)

2016 Niger Gov 1 72% 24% 4% 2017 Niger Gov 1 53% 12% 35% 2017 EVIAM 2 69% 19% 12% 2015 EVIAM 2 48% 46% 6% 2015 Niger Gov 1 18% 24% 58% DIRECT EVIDENCE Household Dietary Diversity Score 2016 Niger Gov 2 75% 18% 7% (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 2 35% 39% 25% 2017 Niger Gov 2 13% 45% 43% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% Conclusion 35-45% 30-40% 20-30% Nutrition The analysis team assessed nutrition data drawn from stunting rates from the 2012 DHS and 2015 INS. There was no indirect evidence related to nutrition. The medium prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Western Agadez. Table 15. Key indicators of nutrition in Western Agadez Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 60% 14% 26% Stunting among Children DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 67% 18% 15%

Conclusion 65% 20% 15%

Inferences from contributing factors suggest that roughly half of the population have access to an improved water source, for many it is at least a 30-minute walk to access water. Further, less than half of households have good hygiene practices. The vast and remote nature of Western Agadez coupled with low literacy rates may also constrain access to health services, diverse foodstuffs and the adoption of good nutrition by adults and their young children.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 16 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Overall findings Indicators from this remote desert zone indicate that data from reliable FCS showed few households in Level 3 or 4. However, dietary diversity for households is poor. Livestock are critical resources for this mostly nomadic population, many also seasonally migrate to work. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 16. Final convergence Western Agadez Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 5% 5% 15-25% 65-75% Food consumption - Quality 20% 80% Food consumption - Quantity 35-45% 30-40% 20-30% Nutrition 65% 20% 15% Overall convergence 25-35% 25-35% 20-30% 10-20% Population affected 31,259 31,259 26,049 15,629 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Western Agadez to improve their food security status, including: • Erratic rainfall and frequent drought are the most significant challenges to households in this zone • Widespread animal disease and increasingly mortality of livestock can lead to higher levels of food insecurity • Dietary diversity is poor • Only 14 percent of households are able to purchase the food they require

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Western Agadez is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 39 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population are mostly nomadic pastoralists. The harsh Saharan conditions suggest that households in this region are quite resilient but inadequate access to health care, water and education lead to poor health outcomes. Food availability appears to be good and households living in or near larger towns will have better market access. Low incomes for the poorest households will certainly constrain purchasing power, consumption quality and nutrition to a greater degree.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 17 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Diffa Region 4: Southeastern Diffa – Irrigated Peppers Dominant Zone Departments: Diffa, Bosso Southeastern Diffa includes the Departments of Bosso and Figure 8. Zone 4 Reference map Diffa in the extreme southeastern corner of Niger bordering Nigeria and has a population of 282,889. It includes the communes of Bosso, Toumour, Gueskerou, Diffa and a portion of southern Chetimari and classified as Livelihood Zone 12 – Komadougou Irrigated Peppers. The zone is well known for producing irrigated red peppers known locally as “red gold” due to their high value in the market. The production zone is located in the northern band of the Komadougou River which extends 100 km and flows into Lake Chad. The area represents a major trading hub for the trade of Nigerien products and especially dried red pepper from Nigeria that is transported throughout Niger. Irrigation is enabled by either gravity or motorized pump and especially important in the dry season when the water level Source: FEWS NET of the river is low. Only producers with motorized pumps can enjoy a second red pepper harvest. Farmers also grow other vegetables such as tomatoes, cabbage, okra, onions, chilies, and other vegetables. Rice is also grown using irrigated fields in some locations. Fishing along the banks of the Komadougou River and Lake Chad are also important livelihoods for many households. Nonetheless, desertification has negatively impacted the lake and its overall size has shrunk over the past several decades. This phenomenon has created an empty space for immigrants, farmers, herders and fishermen. As a result, many have started farming maize, sorghum and cowpeas during the dry season in flood recession zones and on the former lake bed. Millet is grown in the periphery of this zone and trees are cut and exported as lumber to Nigeria. The season for cereal production begins in June at the start of the rains through September. Other agricultural activities occur throughout the year, but the peak season for red pepper and other vegetables begin in September with the increase of river water levels. The demand for agricultural labor reaches its peak during the rainy season. Poor households comprise 27 percent of the population while the very poor comprise 48 percent. The poorest households are subsistence farmers who may only have .5 ha of irrigated land and 1 ha of rain-fed land where they grow peppers, work as agricultural laborers on other farms or depend on fishing. They depend on their own agricultural production, the market, fishing and food aid as their main sources of food. Households in Southeastern Diffa rely on food crop production, petty trade, livestock and casual labor as primary income sources. Over 60 percent of households spend more than 70 percent of their income on food (WFP FSA 2015). Attacks by Boko Haram near Lake Chad in late 2014 significantly affected market activity and created a massive internally displaced population (IDP) and refugee crisis in the Diffa Region near the Nigerian border. The authorities created displacement camps in Sayam and undertook security measures including a curfew, restrictions on the sale of fish, fuel, Urea fertilizer, border closures and curtailed movement of vehicles and motorcycles. These actions greatly impacted the livelihoods of fishermen and farmers. As a result, the period from early 2015 until early 2018 is considered exceptional, thus any data collected during this time is less reliable. Food security parameters in Southeastern Diffa Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Southeastern Diffa, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD and SSEXR collected for the DHS (2012) and the World Bank in 2014 (Table 17).

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 18 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the 2014 which indicated that 55 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 37 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 8 percent spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Children’s dietary diversity data were the most prominent indicators but were ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Diffa Region rather than this smaller zone. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 35–45 percent of households were in Level 1, 40–50 percent in Level 2, and 10–20 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that about 60 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 15–25 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as the sale of firewood or casual labor. Despite significant insecurity wrought by Boko Haram insurgents and subsequent displacement of large populations, roughly 22 percent of households can meet their food needs despite the ongoing shocks. Though HDDS data is missing, the SSEXR data appears quite good and may reflect the diverse number of vegetables grown in this region. Table 17. Key indicators of dietary quality in Southeastern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Children eating minimum dietary 2012 DHS 1 10% 90% diversity EEE

DIRECT Starchy Staple Expenditure Ratio 2014 World Bank 2 55% 37% 8% EVIDENCE

Conclusion 35-45% 40-50% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Southeastern Diffa drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2013 and 2016. Direct evidence included FCS and Minimum Meal Frequency (children) both indicators collected by WFP in 2013, 2014, and 2015 Food Security Assessment and the HEA Survival Deficit collected by FEWS NET in 2016 (Table 18). Indirect evidence was drawn from household dietary diversity data in the 2016 EVIAM report. Reliable, direct evidence (2008–2017) suggest that a minority of households (5–15 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable data from FCS and the absence of households with HEA survival deficits, and only 10 percent of children do not eat a minimum number of meals per day, i.e., considered Level 3 and 4. However, dietary diversity is poor for roughly half of households. Indirect evidence was derived from the duration of households’ food stocks. Between 2013 and 2016 it was observed that fewer households had less than a month of food reserves, a decrease from 58 percent in 2013 to 35 percent in 2016. Based on an assessment of these various data, 5–15 percent of households in Zone 2 were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP between 2008 and 2017 suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that shows steady improvement apart from dietary diversity. Data on children eating the minimum meal frequency was also available, and considered, though it was combined with Level 4 data and shows that only 10 percent of children do not eat the minimum number of meals. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Zone 2 were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 65–75 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that the insecurity has affected normal market function and agricultural production. Agricultural production, livestock and petty commerce appear to be the most important livelihoods. Roughly 0- 10 percent households engage in the sale of wood/forage or casual labor which are normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. Given the ongoing impacts of the conflict, agricultural production has declined from earlier levels and displaced populations may be more reliant on food aid and other means of survival. Nonetheless, indirect evidence shows that households have been able to increase the availability of food stocks stored in the home for longer periods when comparing data from 2013 and 2016 and more recent years.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 19 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 18. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Southeastern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 51% 24% 25% 2010 WFP FSA 1 41% 31% 28% 2011 WFP FSA 2 77% 21% 3% 2013 WFP FSA 2 83% 15% 2% 2015 WFP FSA 2 77% 14% 9% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 1 54% 17% 29%

2016 Niger Gov 1 44% 52% 6% 2017 EVIAM 1 35% 12% 53% 2017 Niger Gov 1 51% 18% 31% 2017 EVIAM 1 69% 19% 11% 2015 EVIAM 2 28% 35% 37% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2016 Niger Gov 2 8% 60% 32% Household Dietary Diversity 2017 EVIAM 2 18% 21% 61% Score (HDDS) 2017 Niger Gov 2 16% 43% 41% 2017 EVIAM 2 26% 49% 24% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% Minimum Meal Frequency WFP FSA 2013 2 90% 10% (children)

2013 EVIAM 1 17% >3 mo stock 24% 56% Duration of Household Food 2015 EVIAM 1 18% > 3 mo stock 42% 40% Stock EVIAM INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE 2016 1 50% >3 mo stock 14% 35% Conclusion 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2015 INS. Indirect evidence was unavailable. Malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Southeastern Diffa. The most recent stunting data reveals high moderate and severe stunting rates at 26 percent and 21 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 19. Key indicators of nutrition in Southeastern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 46% 24% 30% Stunting among Children

CE 2013 INS 2 52% 26% 23% (6-59 months) DIRECT EVIDEN 2015 INS 2 53% 26% 21% Conclusion 45-55% 20-30% 20-30%

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Diffa Region based on 2012 and 2015 stunting rates and access to potable water is almost nonexistent with only 1.6 percent of the population having access to it. Sanitation practices appear to be quite poor with less than 10 percent having access to latrines. There was an improvement in this indicator in 2016, but this may be related to increased access to latrines in displaced persons camps. The ongoing conflict may also be a detriment to improving health outcomes. Overall findings The Southeastern Diffa area has been heavily impacted by the Boko Haram insurgency with significant negative impacts on market function and agricultural production. Data collected in 2016 related to vulnerability and livelihoods shows a decrease in the reliance on agricultural income and a shift to petty commerce. Despite this challenge, only a few households have

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 20 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

adopted more precarious coping strategies. Given the absence of recent data on stunting, it is difficult to determine with certainly the true impact of the conflict on child health. It is also unclear whether recent improvements in sanitation are temporary since more households are living in protected displacement camps. The SSEXR data suggest that households have diverse dietary quality, though some improvement is necessary for children. FCS data show an improvement between 2013 and 2015. Households have also been effective in ensuring food supplies by employing diverse livelihood opportunities per indirect evidence and larger food stocks stored at the home. Nonetheless, many households in the zone remain chronically food insecure, possibly due to the low-return on income generating activities, extremely low literacy rates and lack of improved health practices and access to care that are indicative of high stunting rates among children 6–59 months. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 20. Final convergence Southeastern Diffa Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 0-10% 0-10% 25-35% 55-65% Food consumption - Quality 35-45% 40-50% 10-20% Food consumption - Quantity 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% Nutrition 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% Overall convergence 30-40% 35-45% 10-20% 5-15% Population affected 99,011 113,156 42,433 28,289 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southeastern Diffa to improve their food security status, including: • Ongoing conflict due to Boko Haram insurgency and resulting impact on livelihoods and access to food • Climate change impact on Lake Chad • High stunting rates • Poor access to drinking water

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Southeastern Diffa is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 24 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population benefits from its access to Komadougou River, Lake Chad to irrigate high value crops such as red peppers and fishing. The zone’s proximity to Nigeria also facilitates trade, but more recently Nigeria’s conflict has spilled over the border. Food availability under normal conditions appears to be good and during secure periods there are opportunities to sell food across the border and purchase cheaper items to fulfil household needs.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 21 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

5 : Central Diffa - Agropastoral Dominant Zone Departments: Maine Soroa This area is part of the vast agropastoral belt (NE-04) that Figure 9. Zone 5 Reference map extends across the southern part of Niger and receives 300– 400 mm of rainfall annually that varies 20 percent or more each year. However, a large part of this zone has very limited rainfall that make agricultural production a challenge. Central Diffa includes Mainé Soroa Department and part of the Diffa Region that borders Nigeria. The zone has a population of 157,518. Though this region was traditionally predominantly pasture for livestock, many pastoralists have turned to cultivation after losing animals from drought and many migrants have resettled here from the more populated regions of Niger as well as Nigeria. They are attracted here by the availability of large tracts of relatively fertile land alongside pasture land ideal for livestock. In good Source: FEWS NET years, harvests here can surpass those in Southern Niger known for agricultural production, however erratic rainfall is a frequent phenomenon here and households maintain many livestock to bolster their resilience to such shocks. Rainfall in this zone is variable and distinguished by three seasons – cold and dry, cold and hot and rainy. In normal years, the rainy season begins in June. Cereal production is intended primarily for household consumption whereas legumes are mostly marketed. Households that have better access to a water source are able to produce onions, cabbage or peppers. Poor households comprise 38 percent of the population while 10 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households are subsistence farmers who only have 1.5 ha of rain-fed land with some livestock, gather and sell firewood and work as agricultural laborers on other farms. They depend on their own agricultural production, the market, food aid and migrate seasonally to survive. Households in Zone 5 rely on food crop production, petty trade and livestock as primary income sources. The primary shocks they face include erratic rainfall/crop failure, animal disease and agricultural pests. Conflict in the Lake Chad Basin affected this zone throughout 2015. Many displaced people from Niger, Nigeria and Chad came to humanitarian camps set up within the zone to receive assistance and take shelter from fighting. The government undertook security measures including a curfew, restrictions on the sale of fish, fuel, Urea fertilizer, border closures and curtailed movement of vehicles and motorcycles. These actions greatly impacted the livelihoods of fishermen and rice producers. As a result, the period from early 2015 until early 2016 is considered exceptional, thus any data collected during this time is less reliable. Food security parameters in Central Diffa Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Central Diffa, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) and SSEXR collected for the DHS (2012) and the World Bank (2014) (Table 21). The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 31 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 55 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 14 percent spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Children’s dietary diversity data were the most prominent indicators but were ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Diffa Region rather than this smaller zone. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 25–35 percent of households were in Level 1, 50–60 percent in Level 2, and 10–20 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that about 80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 20-30 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as the sale of firewood or casual labor. Despite the occasional shock due to erratic rainfall, all households had a minimum income that met at least 125 percent of their survival needs. This area was partly affected by Boko Haram insurgents

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 22 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

and some displaced peoples settled here, but the scale of the impact was less pronounced than Zone 4. Though HDDS data is missing, the SSEXR data appears quite good and may reflect the diverse number of vegetables grown in this region. Table 21. Key indicators of dietary quality in Central Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

E Children eating minimum dietary diversity 2012 DHS 1 10% 90% DIRECT

EVIDENC Starchy Staple Expenditure Ratio 2014 World Bank 2 31% 55% 14% Conclusion 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS and Minimum Meal Frequency (children) both indicators collected by WFP in 2013, 2014 and 2015 Food Security Assessment and the HEA Survival Deficit collected by FEWS NET in 2016 (Table 22). Indirect evidence was drawn from household food stocks in the 2013, 2015 and 2016 EVIAM reports. Reliable, direct evidence (2008–2017) suggest that a minority of households (10–20 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by FCS over a nine-year period ranging between 7 to 24 percent for the most reliable data. The absence of households with HEA survival deficits, and the fact that only 10 percent of children do not eat a minimum number of meals per day, i.e., considered Level 3 and 4 also support this finding. Nonetheless, dietary diversity is poor for over a quarter of households in Central Diffa and does not appear to be improving. Indirect evidence was derived from the duration of households’ food stocks. Between 2013 and 2016 it was observed that this fewer households had less than a month of food reserves, a decrease from 58 percent in 2013 to 35 percent in 2016. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in the zone were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that had been improving up until 2014, but then worsened after this point. Data on children eating the minimum meal frequency was also available, and considered, though it was combined with Level 4 data and shows that only 10 percent of children do not eat the minimum number of meals. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Central Diffa were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 60–70 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that households’ primary livelihoods vary year to year with the biggest variations between agricultural production and livestock. Petty commerce also appears to be an important and more stable livelihood for some. Similarly, it appears that many households turn to harvesting wood to sell as a coping mechanism with 20-30 percent practicing such precarious means of survival. As noted, agricultural production varies significantly in this region due to erratic rainfall. Many migrants have moved here from other areas, ostensibly due to overpopulation in other zones and more recent insecurity. Indirect evidence shows that households have been able to increase the availability of food stocks stored in the home for longer periods compared to data from 2013 and 2016 and more recent years, however this data pertains to the entire region, thus less reliable. Table 22. Key indicators of dietary quantity in Central Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 62% 31% 7% 2010 WFP FSA 1 39% 19% 43%

2011 WFP FSA 2 80% 18% 2% 2013 WFP FSA 2 66% 19% 15% 2014 WFP FSA 2 82% 8% 11% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 1 57% 27% 15% 2016 Niger Gov 1 36% 21% 43%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 EVIAM 2 88% 10% 2% 2017 Niger Gov 2 50% 26% 24% 2017 EVIAM 2 70% 21% 9% Famine Early Warning Systems Network 23 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 EVIAM 2 31% 44% 25% 2016 Niger Gov 2 19% 39% 42% Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 1 69% 25% 6% 2017 Niger Gov 2 40% 24% 36% 2017 EVIAM 2 35% 46% 19% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% Minimum Meal Frequency (children) 2013 WFP FSA 2 100% 0%

2013 EVIAM 1 17% >3 mo stock 24% 59%

Duration of Household Food Stock 2015 EVIAM 1 17% 42% 40%

INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 2016 EVIAM 1 50% 15% 35%

Conclusion 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2015 INS. Indirect evidence was unavailable. Malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Zone 4. The data from the most recent malnutrition survey reveals high moderate and severe stunting rates at 26 percent and 30 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 23. Key indicators of nutrition in Central Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 46% 24% 30% Stunting among Children 2013 INS 2 59% 22% 19% (6–59 months) DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 53% 26% 21% Conclusion 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Central Diffa based on 2015 stunting rates and access to potable water is almost nonexistent with only 1.6 percent of the population having access to it. Sanitation practices appear to be quite poor with less than 10 percent having access to latrines. There was an improvement in this indicator in 2016, but this may be related to increased access to latrines in displaced persons camps. The ongoing conflict may also be a detriment to improving health outcomes. Overall findings The Central Diffa area has not been as heavily impacted by the Boko Haram insurgency compared to Southeastern Diffa (Bosso & Diffa), but markets have been affected due to reduced trade from Nigeria due to border closures. In addition, migrants including IDPs and refugees from Nigeria have come to this region. Livelihood data depicts a shift to various types of income sources due to extreme weather volatility. As a result of this and other factors, a relatively high number of households (20–30 percent) have adopted more precarious means to survive. Given the absence of recent data on stunting, it is difficult to determine with certainty the current status of stunting among young children. Very few households have access to potable drinking water or improved hygiene such as latrines and this figure improved only marginally between 2008 and 2016. FCS data worsened slightly between 2008 and 2016. Households have also been effective in ensuring food supplies by employing diverse livelihood opportunities per indirect evidence and larger food stocks stored at the home for longer periods. Nonetheless, many households in the zone remain chronically food insecure, possibly due to the low-return on income generating activities, extremely low literacy rates and lack of improved health practices and access to care that are indicative of high stunting rates among children 6–59 months. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 24 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 24. Final convergence Central Diffa Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 15-25% 5-15% 20-30% 40-50% Food consumption - Quality 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% Food consumption - Quantity 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Nutrition 45-55% 20-30% 25-35% Overall convergence 30-40% 25-35% 15-25% 10-20% Population affected 55,131 47,255 31,503 23,627 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Central Diffa to improve their food security status, including: • Erratic rainfall necessitates livelihood diversification on a year to year basis • Many people have resettled here in the last decade due to overpopulation in the South and conflict • High stunting rates • Poor access to improved sanitation and drinking water Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Diffa is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population benefits from relatively fertile land and good pasture for livestock, but rainfall is erratic. The zone has been less directly affected by the Boko Haram insurgency but has been impacted by border closures and new migrants seeking more land and fleeing conflict. Food availability under normal conditions appears to be good and during secure periods there are opportunities to sell food across the border and purchase cheaper items to fulfil household needs.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 25 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

6: Western Diffa - Natron Salt and Small Basin Irrigated Dates dominant zone Departments: Goudoumaria Western Diffa encompasses Goudoumaria Department and Figure 10. Zone 6 Reference map borders Nigeria. It includes a unique livelihood zone known as Southeastern Natron Salt and Small Basin Irrigated Dates (NE-11). Prior to 2015, Goudoumaria Department was part of Mainé Soroa department, thus there is no data available for this zone prior to this time. The zone has a medium to high potential for rain-fed crop production despite the fact that rainfall generally does not exceed 300 mm per annum. Nonetheless, rainfall here is generally erratic, uncertain and varies dramatically each year, thus regular crop production is not feasible and may contribute to its relatively small population of 120,305 (INS. 2012) Agriculture production in this zone has been on the decline for some time and exacerbated by successive drought, silting of soil and crop pests/diseases such as grasshoppers, birds and aphids. Cultivated areas are usually found on defunct sand dunes, Source: FEWS NET bassins and lowlands between sand dunes. Cereal production is consumed entirely by households whereas legumes such as cowpea and groundnuts are sold. Western Diffa has a structural cereal deficit due to poor crop production and soil erosion that considerably reduces the amount of land that can be exploited and especially related to poor rainfall. Further south, there is a microclimate that support rain-fed millet and sorghum production, date plantations destined primarily to higher value markets in Nigeria and natron salt3 production. Some farmers also grow vegetables and cassava. Despite a strong work ethic, the biggest constraint to production is the encroachment of sand dunes in bassins, free roaming/ranging of livestock and the lack of rural feeder roads to move goods to market (WFP EFSA. 2016). Given the challenges to crop production related to water availability, high water table and poor soil fertility, the revenue from natron salt and date-palm production serve as important income for households. The rainy season is between June and October and planting usually commences in June. Harvests begin in October. The principal livelihood activities occur between October and February. The demand for agricultural labor, sale of firewood and date-palm reach their peak between June and September as household stocks are depleted and cereal purchases are necessary. The poorest households farm 1.5–2 ha and have small ruminants and work as casual laborers. The wealthiest households farm on marsh and limited irrigated land, own farm equipment and have small ruminants. They also collect and natron salt and consume a portion of their own production or sell livestock to survive. The main shocks that households face in Western Diffa include drought, crop disease and pests. However, the zone has also been affected by security measures undertaken by the Niger military related to the Boko Haram insurgency from early 2015 until early 2018. The government and UN agencies such as UNHCR set up relief camps for IDPs and refugees in Goudoumaria Department and instituted restrictive security measures that impeded market movement such as prohibiting the use of motorcycles, sale of petrol, fertilizer such as Urea and instituting a curfew. Food security parameters in Western Diffa Food consumption quality The analysis team lacked direct evidence so were required to only use indirect evidence to assess food consumption quality. There was some data related to underlying/causal factors pertaining to livelihood strategies, percentage of population below poverty line, percentage of cash expenditure spent on food. Such evidence reveals that 70–80 percent of households spend 70 percent or more of their income on food and over 90 percent of households are below the national poverty line of $1.90 per day. A survey conducted for the department showed that households here diversify their incomes with an emphasis on agricultural production, livestock and petty commerce, but 30–40 percent rely on precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood and work as artisans. Despite this information and other data points related to contributing factors, the lack of reliable direct and indirect evidence on Food Consumption Quality did not permit the analysis team to reach a minimum confidence level to classify this indicator.

3 Natron salt is sodium carbonate decahydrate that occurs naturally and sold throughout West Africa as salt lick for livestock. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 26 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 25. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Western Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Seasonality of Quality of 2013 EVIAM 1 36% 64% Food Consumption 2014 EVIAM 1 34% 66%

INDIRECT INDIRECT Underlying Factors 30-40% 25-35% 30-40% EVIDENCEEE

Conclusion 30-40% 25-35% 30-40% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to food consumption quantity in Western Diffa drawn from direct evidence such as FCS and HDDS and indirect evidence using household dietary diversity. The FCS was derived from indicators collected by the Niger Government and WFP. Indirect evidence was not available. This limited direct evidence suggests that a minority of households (15–25 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). Nonetheless, there was a spike in food deficits in 2015 whereby nearly a third reported poor food consumption (WFP 2015) that may have been related to the closure of the border and restrictive security measures caused by the Boko Haram insurgents. The same direct evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 25–35 percent of households in Level 3 with little change between 2014 and 2015. Data on HDDS was also available and shows that on aggregate 30–35 percent of households had an HDDS 5–7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 25–35 percent of households in Western Diffa were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Table 26. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Western Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2014 WFP FSA 2 45% 30% 25% 2015 WFP 1 51% 30% 18% 2016 Niger Gov 1 68% 16% 16% Food Consumption Score (FCS)

2017 EVIAM 1 38% 24% 38% 2017 Niger Gov 1 18% 19% 63% 2017 EVIAM 1 72% 22% 6% 2014 EVIAM 2 57% 34% 11% 2015 EVIAM 1 21% 50% 29% DIRECT EVIDENCE Household Diversity Score 2016 Niger Gov 1 40% 44% 16% (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 1 26% 37% 37% 2017 Niger Gov 1 5% 20% 74% 2017 EVIAM 1 46% 44% 10% Conclusion 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most households rely on agriculture production, livestock, and petty commerce but supplement their income from date palm and salt production given the erratic and undependable nature of rainfall in this zone. However, roughly a third of households rely on more precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood and work as artisans. During drought years such as 2010, nearly half of households sold their possessions as a coping mechanism. Nutrition The analysis team only had a single indicator pertinent to nutrition data for Western Diffa drawn from stunting data from the 2012 DHS. There was no indirect evidence related to nutrition. Stunting data was determined to have low reliability since it was collected in an exceptional year and pertinent to the entire department, thus unlikely indicative of the situation in Goudoumaria Department. However, this single piece of data shows very high prevalence of stunting in children 6–59 months.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 27 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 27. Key Indicators of nutrition in Western Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 46% 24% 30% Stunting among Children (6-59 2013 INS 2 66% 19% 15% months) 2015 INS 2 52% 25% 23% DIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 50-60% 20-30% 15-25%

Inferences from contributing factors suggest that less than 5 percent of households have improved sanitation. However, over 75 percent of households have access to an improved water source and are able to access at least 15 liters per day. Overall findings Goudoumaria was formerly part of another department and was only designated in 2014, as such data before this time is not available. Western Diffa has not been as heavily impacted by the Boko Haram insurgency compared to Southeastern Diffa (Bosso & Diffa), but markets have been affected due to reduced trade from Nigeria due to border closures. Farming is the primary livelihood here, but it is compromised by the encroachment of sand dunes in basins, free roaming/ranging of livestock and the lack of rural feeder roads to move goods to market. Households in Western Diffa employ diverse livelihood opportunities based on surveys undertaken by WFP. Many households in the zone remain chronically food insecure, possibly due to the low-return on income generating activities. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 28. Final convergence Western Diffa Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 0-10% 10-20% 10-20% 60-70% Food consumption - Quality 30-40% 25-35% 30-40% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Nutrition 50-60% 20-30% 15-25% Overall convergence 25-35% 20-30% 25-35% 10-20% Population affected 36,091 30,076 36,091 18,046 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Western Diffa to improve their food security status, including: • 30–40 percent of households engage in precarious livelihoods • Lack of roads to/within Goudoumaria contributes to higher food prices and constrains food access • Extremely low precipitation, erratic rainfall and crop pests and disease collectively constrain agricultural production

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Diffa is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 44 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. Though agriculture has been the primary livelihood in this zone, recurrent drought has compromised livelihoods for many. Many households in the southern part of the zone rely upon Natron Salt and date palm production. The area was not directly affected by insecurity similar to Southeastern Diffa.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 28 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

7: Northeastern Diffa - Lake Chad Flood-Retreat Cultivation and Fishing dominant zone Departments: N’Guigmi Northeastern Diffa which includes N’Guigmi town and Figure 11. Zone 7 Reference map commune is the most eastern part of Niger near Lake Chad and the Chadian border and classified as NE13 Lake Chad Flood-Retreat Cultivation with Fishing. Up until the middle of the 20th century, N’Guigmi stood on the lake’s shore and was regularly flooded during the rainy season. Niger’s access to the northern basin of Lake Chad consists of only an enormous wetland at present. Water from the Chari-Logone River only reaches the northern basin in years of heavy monsoon rains.4 The lake’s significant shrinkage since 1970 has been caused by climate change, an increase in population who have contributed to its shrinkage through poor fishing, grazing and agricultural production practices, dams and poor collective management of water sources by all surrounding countries (ibid). The majority of the Source: FEWS NET population of 87,782 (INS RGPH/2012, updated 2018 projection) in N’Guigmi are farmers and pastoralists who raise Kouri cattle – an indigenous breed acclimated to the Lake Chad basin that face extinction. There are also many fishermen in the zone that have resettled from Mali, Nigeria, Senegal and Cameroon. During the rainy season, the lake expands and fed by the Chari River from Chad and the Komadougou River from Nigeria via Niger. When the lake recedes during the dry season, farmers begin to plant on the lake’s shore starting in November. Farmers primarily grow maize, sorghum and cowpeas which are used for both home consumption and sale. Apart from cattle and camels that are raised widely in the region, the more sedentary ethnic groups raise sheep and goats as well as poultry which serve as liquidity for the poorest households. However, the wealthiest households have their own livestock. Traders buy livestock at local markets, especially in Kabalewa, and resell in more lucrative markets in Nigeria. The poorest households tend to be fishermen, whereas wealthier households purchase dried fish that they resell in local markets and in Nigeria. Most crops are harvested between June and October at the end of the rainy season when the demand for labor is at its peak. In addition to the aforementioned crops, some types of millet are also grown outside of the normal season. Livestock sales and cereal purchases reach their peak during the rainy season. Though it is unclear what percentage of the population constitute poor households, the poorest are subsistence farmers who grow crops on the former lake bed, have few livestock and are often fishermen. They sell maize, cowpeas and fresh fish and often work as agricultural laborers. They depend on their own agricultural production, as well as food aid as their main sources of food. Food security parameters in Northeastern Diffa Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to the zone, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) and SSEXR collected for the DHS (2012), EVIAM (2013 and 2015) and the World Bank (2014) (Table 28). The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 42 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 56 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 2 percent spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Children’s dietary diversity data were the most prominent indicators but were ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Diffa Region rather than this smaller zone. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 35-45 percent of households were in Level 1, 50–60 percent in Level 2, and 0–10 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 70 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 0–10 percent of households have less resilient means of

4 https://www.giz.de/de/downloads/giz2015-en-joint-environmental-audit-report-lake-chad.pdf Famine Early Warning Systems Network 29 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019 income such as casual labor. This region was significantly affected by Boko Haram insurgents and many households were displaced. Though recent, reliable HDDS data pertinent to this zone is missing, the SSEXR data appears quite good and may reflect the consumption of meat, fish and other diverse foods grown in this region. Table 29. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northeastern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 10% 90% Children eating minimum 2013 EVIAM 1 36% 64% dietary diversity 2015 EVIAM 1 34% 66% DIRECT

EVIDENCE Starchy Staple Expenditure 2014 World Bank 2 42% 56% 2% Ratio Conclusion 35-45% 50-60% 0-10% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2016. Direct evidence included FCS and HDDS both indicators collected by WFP between 2008 and 2015 and the household dietary diversity collected by the Niger Government (EVIAM Reports) in 2014 and 2015 (Table 30). Indirect evidence was not available. Reliable, direct evidence (2008–2017) suggest that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of FCS and HDDS data collected specifically for N’Guigmi Department between 2008- 2016 by WFP and the Niger Government. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Northeastern Diffa were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that shows steady improvement. Data on HDDS was also available and shows that on aggregate only 20–30 percent of households had an HDDS < 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Northesatern Diffa were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 60–70 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that the insecurity has occasionally affected normal market function and livelihoods, but it appears that markets have not been affected for long after attacks or the threat of prolonged insecurity from Boko Haram. There has been a general improvement in food consumption quantity over the past decade due to the presence of humanitarian actors and especially food aid. This is supported by the fact that 20 percent of households can meet their food needs – a figure that is slightly above the average for the region. Livestock and petty commerce appear to be the most important livelihoods followed by agricultural production. Roughly 0–10 percent households engage in casual labor which are normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. It is difficult to directly link the ongoing impact of the conflict on livelihoods since the data was erratic pre-crisis, thus does not show a definitive trend, but it is clear that displaced populations may be more reliant on food aid and other types of assistance provided by humanitarian aid. Similarly, indirect evidence pertaining to household food stocks also appears to be erratic and does not appear to have improved, or food stock holdings may be inaccurately reported by households. Table 30. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northeastern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2008 WFP FSA 2 68% 22% 11% 2010 WFP FSA 1 71% 19% 10% 2011 WFP FSA 2 69% 23% 7% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2013 WFP FSA 2 67% 16% 17% 2015 WFP FSA 2 54% 21% 25% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 WFP FSA 1 78% 15% 7%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 30 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2016 Niger Gov 1 21% 42% 37% 2017 EVIAM 1 45% 29% 26% 2017 Niger Gov 1 86% 7% 7% 2017 EVIAM 1 72% 16% 12% 2014 EVIAM 2 71% 13% 16% 2015 EVIAM 1 46% 39% 15% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 11% 52% 37% 2017 EVIAM 1 33% 47% 21% 2017 Niger Gov 1 67% 24% 9% 2017 EVIAM 1 34% 39% 27% Conclusion 60-70% 10-20% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year. Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS, 2013 INS and a 2017 SMART survey in Diffa. Indirect evidence was unavailable. Malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Northeastern Diffa, especially given an increase in the number of stunted children between 2013 and 2017. The data reveals low moderate and severe stunting rates between 5–15 percent. The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 31. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northeastern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 46% 24% 30%

Stunting among Children 2013 INS 2 74% 18% 8% (6-59 months)

2017 SMART 2 34% 19% 15% DIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 65% 20-25% 10-15% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Diffa Region, but there was an improvement since 2012. Access to potable water is one of the best in the region at 50–70 percent with steady improvement since 2008, ostensibly due to the presence of humanitarian actors. Access to improved sanitation appear to be somewhat low but shows continued improvement in this indicator also likely linked to humanitarian interventions. Overall findings Northeastern Diffa has been somewhat impacted by the Boko Haram insurgency with temporary market closures, but livelihoods do not appear to have been as heavily impacted compared to other areas in the Diffa Region. Data collected in 2016 related to vulnerability and livelihoods shows an increase in the reliance on petty commerce and drop in agricultural production as primary livelihood while livestock sales remain important. Only a few households have adopted more precarious means to survive. Access to water and improved sanitation appear to be good, but it remains to be seen how such indicators will be affected with the end of humanitarian assistance in this zone and Diffa Region in general. The SSEXR data suggest that households have diverse dietary quality, though reliable HDDS data collected by the Niger Government in 2015 show that over a third of households have poor dietary diversity. FCS data show moderate improvement between 2008 and 2015 with only one exception that may be related to the conflict. Households have also been effective in ensuring food supplies by employing diverse livelihood opportunities per indirect evidence. Nonetheless, many households in the zone remain chronically food insecure, possibly due to the low-return on income generating activities, extremely low literacy rates and lack of improved health practices and access to care that are indicative of high stunting rates among children

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 31 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

6-59 months. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 32. Final convergence Zone Northeastern Diffa Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 55-65% 25-35% 0-10% 0-10% Food consumption - Quality 35-45% 50-60 0-10% Food consumption - Quantity 60-70% 10-20% 15-25% Nutrition 65% 20-25% 10-15% Overall convergence 35-45% 25-35% 15-25% 5-15% Population affected 35,112 26,334 17,556 8,778 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northeastern Diffa to improve their food security status, including: • Climate change impact on Lake Chad and resulting impact on livelihoods • Some temporary market disruption due to insecurity • High stunting rates possibly linked to limited knowledge of improved maternal child health and nutrition (MCHN) practices and access to care

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Northeastern Diffa is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2-4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population benefits from its access to Lake Chad for fishing, agricultural production and grazing of livestock near its banks, though this also contributes to the lake’s demise. The zone’s proximity to Chad may facilitate some minor trade, but the Boko Haram conflict has spread across the borders from its original start in Nigeria. Food availability under normal conditions appears to be good and trade of livestock and fish are important means of survival in addition to petty commerce.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 32 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

8: Northern Diffa - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant zone Deparments: N’Gourti Northern Diffa is a vast region of sandy steppe covered Figure 12. Zone 8 Reference map primarily with brush and sparse grasses and includes the department of N’Gourti. This zone classified as NE03 Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism traverses central Niger from the Mali to Chad borders. Rearing livestock is the only viable livelihood in this dry environment where rainfall averages 100-200 mm per year and such low precipitation does not make agricultural production feasible. Though the pasture is ideal for large herds, pastoralists must constantly move their herds to seasonal pasture, traversing a broad circuit in the vast department from transhumant nomadic villages. In this challenging environment, it is essential for pastoralists to maintain a delicate equilibrium of sharing available pasture and water points with each other. Most transhumant herders tend to be Peul who manage their Source: FEWS NET livestock and camels in a smaller region since they need to drink more frequently compared to camels. Nomadic ethnic groups such as the Touaregs and Arabic speakers traverse more remote parts of the zone for pasture that can only be reached by camels who can travel longer distances without water. Without a doubt, the inhabitants of this sparsely populated zone (61,932 INS RGPH/2012, updated 2018 projection) are experts in raising and breeding camels. Pastoralists also raise significant number of goats and sheep. Each year, pastoralists and nomads return to the same pasture and markets with their herds. The stability of livestock markets are critical for their existence. They depend on the market to purchase cereal for home consumption and consume limited milk and meat. The rainy season extends from July to September and drives transhumant migration with herds between November and May to follow available pasture throughout Northern Diffa. Households rely on cereal purchase throughout the year. Poor households comprise 29 percent of the population while 26 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have mostly small ruminants and rarely possess larger livestock. They often work for others as shepherds to manage larger herds, they sell their small ruminants as necessary and milk. Some of the poorest hosueholds also work in the larger villages selling forage and collected firewood. They purchase rice and millet, consume milk from their animals and receive some aid from their employers. The primary shocks they face include drought, animal disease, decrease in water table and desertification that destroys pasture. Food security parameters in Northern Diffa Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Northern Diffa, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors. For direct evidence, it was limited to CEMDD (6–23 months) collected for the DHS (2012), EVIAM (2013 and 2015) and Niger Government (2015). Children’s dietary diversity data were the most prominent indicators but were downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Diffa Region rather than large yet sparsely populated zone. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 40–50 percent of households were in Level 1, 30–40 percent in Level 2, and 15–25 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 95 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food that is generated from sales of milk and livestock. Table 33. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 10% 90% Children eating minimum dietary diversity 2013 EVIAM 1 45% 64% DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 EVIAM 1 34% 66% Famine Early Warning Systems Network 33 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 Niger Gov 2 0% 100% Conclusion 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence between 2014 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS and HEA survival deficit. Data was collected by WFP in 2014 and 2015, by Niger Government in 2016 and 2017 by FEWS NET in 2016 for HEA. HDDS was collected by the Niger Government (EVIAM Reports) in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 (Table 34). Indirect evidence was not available. Reliable, direct evidence suggest that a minority of households (5–15 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of FCS and HDDS data collected specifically for Northern Diffa whereby few households had an HDDS <4 or had HEA Survival deficits, ie considered Level 3 and 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 5–15 percent of households in Northern Diffa were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that remained somewhat stable between 2015 and 2017 per data collected by the Niger Government. Data on HDDS was also available and shows that over half of households had an HDDS 5–7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 20–30 percent of households were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 60–70 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that food consumption quantity is stable and though households are reliant on the markets solely for cereal purchase, income from livestock makes this viable and some have also benefitted from humanitarian aid. Some IDPs and refugees have come to this zone due to insecurity, but there does not seem to have been major disruption to the livestock market here. Over a third of households reported to have sufficient resource to purchase their food basket on a regular basis – one of the highest rates reported in Diffa Region. Less than one percent of households engage in casual labor which are normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. The presence of food aid, cash transfer and other types of assistance provided by humanitarian aid appears to be helping households diversify their food basket and enhance their purchasing power. Indirect evidence pertaining to household food stocks also appears to be erratic and does not appear to have improved, but it may reflect the fact these communities who are pastoralists who are not engaged in any type of agricultural production and rely completely on the market to purchase cereals. Table 34. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 WFP FSA 2 94% 4% 2% 2015 WFP FSA 2 83% 12% 5% 2016 SCA 2 80% 11% 9% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2017 EVIAM 2 55% 17% 28%

2017 Niger Gov 2 85% 10% 4% 2017 EVIAM 2 89% 9% 2% 2014 EVIAM 2 99% 1% 0% 2015 EVIAM 2 6% 42% 52% 2016 SCA 2 92% 8% 0%

DIRECT EVIDENCE Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 100% 0% 0% 2017 EVIAM 2 9% 67% 24% 2017 Niger Gov 2 0% 84% 16% 2017 EVIAM 2 42% 47% 11% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% Conclusion 60-70% 20-30% 5-15% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and SMART surveys conducted between 2010 and 2017. Indirect evidence on underweight children between 0–59 months was also available. The data

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 34 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

reveals low moderate and severe stunting rates between 25–35 percent and 10 and 20 percent, respectively (DHS 2012 & SMART surveys). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 35. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Diffa Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2010 SMART 1 38% 22% 16% 2011 SMART 1 53% 32% 22% 2012 DHS 1 46% 24% 30% Stunting among Children (6-59 months) 2012 SMART 1 45% 28% 17% 2013 SMART 1 42% 22% 20% 2014 SMART 1 42% 29% 13% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 SMART 2 62% 26% 12%

Underweight 2017 SMART 2 33% 25% 8% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 50-60% 25-35% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Diffa Region based on 2012 stunting rates, but more reliable data collected in 2017 for N’Gourti Department alone shows a much better picture. Access to drinking water or even water points for animals is problematic in this very dry zone, requiring households to walk long distances for water, often over 30 minutes, Access to improved sanitation is roughly 22 percent and relatively stable, possibly as a result of long-term humanitarian interventions. Overall findings Northern Diffa is an inhospitable zone, but despite extremely low precipitation and the complete absence of agricultural production, the few scattered residents here survive on transhumant pastoralism. Data from food consumption quality and quantity are quite good relative to other zones, but child malnutrition rates remain stubbornly high. This may be a result of the dearth of health facilities located here, apart from humanitarian interventions and limited education among the people here. The FCS and HDDS data suggest that households have diverse dietary quality. Households have also been effective in ensuring their ability to buy food through rearing livestock and remote pasture. Nonetheless, many households in the zone remain chronically food insecure, possibly due to extremely low literacy rates and lack of improved health practices and access to care that are indicative of high stunting rates among children 6-59 months. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 36. Final convergence Northern Diffa Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 40-50% 30-40% 10-20 0-10% Food consumption - Quality 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% Food consumption - Quantity 60-70% 20-30% 5-15% Nutrition 50-60% 25-35% 10-20% Overall convergence 35-45% 25-35% 15-25% 5-15% Population affected 24,773 18,580 12,386 6,193 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northern Diffa to improve their food security status, including:

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 35 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

• Extremely low precipitation • Livestock-oriented shocks: animal disease, desertification wiping out forage • Poor access to water for humans and livestock

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Northern Diffa is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. Most households maintain an ancient livelihood through transhumant and nomadic pastoralism by moving their livestock and camels to remote pasture on an annual basis. Food consumption quality and quantity are good compared to other zones, but malnutrition among children remains a serious problem which seems to be driving humanitarian interventions here, as well as the displacement of individuals due to insecurity.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 36 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Dosso Region 9: Northern Dosso - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone Departments: Dioundiou, Tbiri, Dogondoutchi, Loga, Boboye, Falmey, Dosso

Northern Dosso includes almost the entirety of Dosso Figure 13. Zone 9 Reference Map Region, with the exception of Gaya, and specifically the departments of Dogondoutchi, Loga, Dosso, Tibiri, Dioundou, Boboye and Falmey. The zone borders Nigera and Benin and is situated in the NE05 Livelihood zone – Rainfed Millet and Sorghum Belt and receives 400-600 mm rainfall per annum. The zone has a number of “dallols”: dallol Bosso (Boboye and Falmey), dallol Maouri (Doutchi, Tchibiri et Dioundou). The main crops grown here include millet, sorghum, cowpeas and groundnuts. The region is known as the breadbasket of Niger due to its dependable harvests due to good soil fertility and adequate rainfall. Agricultural production is the most prevalent livelihood in this zone, followed by livestock, petty commerce and salaried employment. The population was estimated at 2,212,665 in Source: FEWS NET 2012 and the third most densely populated region in Niger. The principal ethnic groups present in Dosso include the Djerma, Peul and Hausa. Poor households comprise 29 percent of the population while 35 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have mostly small ruminants and rarely possess larger livestock. The poorest households have 1-2 ha at the most, own some small ruminants, work as agricultural laborers, sell forage or firewood and often migrate during the lean season. They depend on their own production of millet and sorghum for household consumption but also procure from the market or barter with other families. The rainy season is between May and September and land preparation begins in March. The harvest normally occurs in September when demand for labor is at its peak, though agricultural laborers are needed throughout the year. During the lean season from April to August, households must buy cereal in the market. Food security parameters in Northern Dosso Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to the zone, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors. For direct evidence, it was limited to SSEXR EVIAM (2013 and 2015) and CEMDD (2015 Niger Government). Indirect evidence included dietary diversity among children 6–24 months. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank in 2014 which indicated that 18 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 53 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and 28 percent spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). This also corresponded to data for CEMDD that showed 74 percent of children in levels 2–4. Indirect evidence included child dietary diversity among 6–24-month old that revealed between 66 and 81 percent of children have poor dietary diversity. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 15–25 percent of households were in Level 1, 45–55 percent in Level 2, and 25–35 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 75 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 37 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 37. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Dosso Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Starchy Staple Expenditure 2014 World Bank 2 18% 53% 28% Ratio

DIRECT Children Eating Minimum

EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 26% 74% Dietary Diversity

2013 EVIAM 1 34% 66% Dietary Diversity (Children 6-24 months) 2015 EVIAM 1 19% 81% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 15-25% 45-55% 25-35% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Northern Doss drawn from various direct evidence between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, Minimum Meal Frequency (children) Household Dietary Diversity Score and HEA survival deficit. Indirect evidence was drawn from the reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) and months of household food stock. Data was collected by WFP between 2018 and 2016, by FEWS NET in 2016 for HEA and the Household Dietary Diversity was collected by the Niger Government (EVIAM Reports) in 2014, 2016 and 2017 (Table 38). Indirect evidence was collected by WFP and the Niger Government Reliable, direct evidence suggest that 10–20 percent of households food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of FCS data collected specifically for Northern Dosso between 2008 and 2017. No households had had HEA Survival deficits, i.e., considered Level 3 and 4, however, HDDS data shows that nearly half of households have poor dietary diversity. Indirect evidence from reduced coping strategy and the months of household food stock showed a better picture and subsequently skewed the convergence to show fewer households in Level 4. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that showed no significant improvement between 2017 and 2018. Data on HDDS was also available and shows that roughly one third of households had an HDDS 5–7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 30–40 percent of households in Northern Dosso were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that food consumption quantity is stable and though households are reliant on the markets solely for cereal purchase, income from livestock makes this viable and some have also benefitted from humanitarian aid. Some IDPs and refugees have come to this zone due to insecurity, but there does not seem to have been major disruption to the livestock market here. Over a third of households reported to have sufficient resource to purchase their food basket on a regular basis – one of the highest rates reported in Diffa Region. Less than one percent of households engage in casual labor which are normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. The presence of food aid, cash transfer and other types of assistance provided by humanitarian aid appears to be helping households diversify their food basket and enhance their purchasing power. Indirect evidence pertaining to household food stocks also appears to be erratic and does not appear to have improved, but it may reflect the fact these communities who are pastoralists who are not engaged in any type of agricultural production and rely completely on the market to purchase cereals. Table 38. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Dosso Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2008 WFP FSA 2 69% 20% 11% 2010 WFP FSA 1 38% 31% 31% 2011 WFP FSA 2 56% 27% 17% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2013 WFP FSA 2 66% 24% 10% 2015 WFP FSA 2 54% 27% 19% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 WFP FSA 1 43% 19% 37%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 38 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2016 Niger Gov 1 40% 22% 38% 2017 EVIAM 2 46% 28% 26% 2017 Niger Gov 1 57% 19% 24% 2015 EVIAM 2 29% 31% 40% 2015 EVIAM 1 23% 32% 45% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 1 23% 33% 45% 2017 EVIAM 2 19% 35% 46% 2017 Niger Gov 1 34% 34% 32% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% 2008 WFP FSA 2 79% 21% 2013 WFP FSA 2 64% 36% Minimum Meal Frequency 2014 WFP FSA 2 50% 50% 2016 WFP FSA 2 55% 45% 2008 WFP FSA 2 93% rCSI 6% 1% 2010 WFP FSA 1 69% rCSI 23% 8% 2011 WFP FSA 1 88% rCSI 10% 2% Reduced Coping Strategy Index 2013 WFP FSA 2 69% rCSI 29% 3% 2014 WFP FSA 2 64% rCSI 33% 3% 2016 WFP FSA 2 83% rCSI 16% 1% EVIAM 45% > 3 mos food 33% 1-3 22% <1 2013 2 mo mo EVIAM 46% > 3 mos food 43% 1-3 11% <1 INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 2014 2 mo mo Household Food stocks EVIAM 73% > 3 mos food 13% 1-3 14% <1 2016 2 mo mo Niger Gov 48% > 3 mos food 36% 1-3 16% <1 2017 2 mo mo Conclusion 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and INS surveys conducted in 2013 and 2015. The data reveals low moderate and severe stunting rates between 15–25 percent and 10 and 20 percent, respectively (DHS 2012 & INS surveys). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 39. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Dosso Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 63% 22% 15% Stunting among Children (6-59 months) 2013 INS 2 14% 24% 59% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 64% 25% 11%

Conclusion 60-65% 20-25% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Northern Dosso based on 2012 stunting rates, but more reliable data collected in 2015 for the zone shows only a slightly better picture. Access to drinking water or even water points for animals is problematic in this very dry zone, requiring households to walk long distances for water, often over 30 minutes, Access to improved sanitation is roughly 22 percent and relatively stable, possibly as a result of long-term humanitarian interventions.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 39 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Overall findings Households in Northern Dosso rely on millet and sorghum production and have livestock. Data from food consumption quality and quantity are quite good relative to other zones, but child malnutrition rates remain stubbornly high. The FCS and HDDS data suggest that households lack diverse dietary quality. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 40. Final convergence Northern Dosso Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 35-45% 30-40% 5-15 10-20% Food consumption - Quality 15-25% 45-55% 25=35% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Nutrition 60-65% 20-25% 10-20% Overall convergence 25-35% 30-40% 15-25% 10-20% Population affected 663,799 774,433 442,533 331,900 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northern Dosso to improve their food security status, including: • Households have limited access to land (1-2 ha) in this more densely populated area • Livestock holdings are limited • Dietary diversity is poor

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Northern Dosso is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. Despite adequate rainfall in this zone, FCS and dietary diversity have been worsening since 2008. A growing population is also placing increased pressure on already scarce land to farm.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 40 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

10: Southern Dosso - Cereals and Fan-Palm Products dominant zone Deparments: Gaya Southern Dosso includes Gaya Department and located in Figure 14. Zone 10 Reference Map the extreme southeast of Niger bordering Benin. It encompasses the N08 livelihood zone (Southwestern Cereals with Fan-Palm Products) and receives 800 mm of rainfall per year. Gaya has a Sudan-type ecosystem with dense vegetation of bushes, forests and a useful niche product – Borassus fan palm (Borassus aethiopium). There is active cross-border trade with Benin. Despite its unique agro-ecology, crops grown here tend to be the same as elsewhere in the southern zone, namely millet, sorghum, cowpeas, groundnuts and some limited rain-fed rice. Fertile soils and sufficient rainfall ensure good harvests and have contributed to high population density (pop: 325,953) and small farm sizes. Wealthier households have larger plots and use tractors to prepare and harvest their land. Source: FEWS NET Livestock holdings tend to be rather modest, consisting of small ruminants such as sheep, goats, poultry and a few cattle. There is some limited fishing in the Niger River that flows along the border, but this is a minor livelihood for the area. The most important marketed crops are cowpeas and groundnuts, but many also sell the edible, lumber and handicraft products from fan palm. The rainy season is the longest in Niger, spanning May – October. Agricultural activities are absent during the first quarter of the calendar year, thus the sale of fish and livestock are more prevalent during this period. Households rely on the markets to purchase most of their food in July and August prior to the harvest. Though there are occasionally poor harvests due to erratic rainfall, this zone rarely becomes food insecure. Poor households comprise 36 percent of the population while 22 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have roughly 1.5 ha and grow crops and fan palm and own a few small ruminants. They depend on their own production for household consumption but also procure from the market, receive humanitarian aid or barter with other families. Despite revenue garnered from agriculture and livestock in Gaya and trade with Nigeria and Benin, many individuals migrate on a seasonal basis for work. The main shocks that households face here are flooding, crop disease and pests. Food security parameters in Southern Dosso Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Southern Dosso, the analysis team confronted the challenge of limited data relevant to the zone apart from CEMDD. However, this data was deemed to have limited reliability since it was not relevant to Gaya Department alone. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 30 percent of households were in Level 1, 25 percent in Level 2, and 45 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Indirect evidence was missing, but there was some data related to underlying/causal factors pertaining to livelihood strategies, percentage of population below poverty line, percentage of cash expenditure spent on food. Such evidence reveals that 60–70 percent of households spend 70 percent or more of their income on food and over 80 percent of households are below the national poverty line of $1.90 per day. A survey conducted for the zone showed that households rely primarily on agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock. Roughly 0–10 percent rely on precarious sources of income such as sale of wood or casual labor. Nonetheless, the lack of reliable direct and indirect evidence on Food Consumption Quality did not permit the analysis team to reach a minimum confidence level to classify this indicator. Table 41. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southern Dosso Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Direct Evidence 2013 EVIAM 1 34% 66% Children Eating Minimum Dietary 2014 EVIAM 1 19% 81% Diversity Conclusion 30% 25% 45% Famine Early Warning Systems Network 41 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to food consumption quantity in the zone drawn from direct evidence such as FCS and HDDS and indirect evidence using months of household food stock. The FCS and HDDS data were derived from indicators collected by WFP and the Niger Government between 2008 and 2017, while indirect evidence was sourced from the government’s EVIAM studies in 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Based on FCS data alone, it suggests that a minority of households (15–25 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). Indirect evidence related to the number of months of household food stocks show that 10–20 percent of households have one month or less of food stocks. However, the lack of additional direct evidence did not allow to classify the level of food security in Gaya Department related to food consumption quantity. Reliable, direct evidence suggest that 10–20 percent of households food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of FCS data collected specifically for Gaya Department. No households had HEA Survival deficits, i.e., considered Level 3 and 4, however, HDDS data shows that over one third of households have poor dietary diversity. Indirect evidence from months of household food stock showed similar data to FCS, but a slightly worse situation in 2017 compared to 2015 though this data had lower reliability since it was collecte for the entire Dosso Department. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that worsened between 2008 and 2017. Data on HDDS was also available and shows that roughly half of households had an HDDS 5–7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 30–40 percent of households in Southern Dosso were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Table 42. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southern Dosso. Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 47% 27% 26% 2010 WFP FSA 1 48% 18% 34% 2011 WFP FSA 1 79% 18% 3% 2013 WFP FSA 2 45% 24% 30%

Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 42% 33% 25% 2015 WFP FSA 1 55% 33% 12% 2016 Niger Gov 1 75% 11% 14% 2017 EVIAM 2 49% 34% 17% 2017 Niger Gov 1 70% 9% 21% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 EVIAM 2 23% 27% 50% 2015 Niger Gov 2 24% 45% 32% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 25% 52% 23% Score (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 1 26% 28% 46% 2017 Niger Gov 1 15% 49% 37% 33% 1-3 22% <1 2013 EVIAM 1 45% >3 mo stock mo mo

43% 1-3 11% <1 2015 EVIAM 1 46% >3 mo stock Months of food stocks mo mo 2016 EVIAM 1 73% 13% 14% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE ESS Niger 48% 2-4 16% 1-2 2017 1 34% 4-6 mo Govt mo mo Conclusion 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most households rely on income from crop production, livestock, and small business and most have access to land for production purposes. The zone benefits from much better rainfall patterns (up to 800 mm annually) compared to other regions, thus production in this area should be more reliable, and exhibit higher levels

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 42 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

of food consumption quantity. However, the lack of sufficient data precludes a definitive classification pertaining to Gaya’s food security status. Nutrition The analysis team used nutrition data for Southern Dosso drawn from stunting data from the 2012 DHS and 2013 and 2015 INS report. There was no indirect evidence related to nutrition. The data reveals low moderate and severe stunting rates between 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively (DHS 2012 & INS 2013 and 2015 surveys). Table 43. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southern Dosso Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 63% 22% 16% Stunting among Children (6-59 2013 INS 2 62% 24% 14% months) 2015 INS 2 67% 24% 10% DIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 65% 20% 15% Overall findings Households are heavily dependent on income from rain fed crop production of millet, sorghum, cowpeas and groundnuts and production of fan palm, found only in Gaya. However, farmer plots are smaller in this more densely populated region. Dietary diversity is poor and malnutrition rates among children under 5 are moderate and there was a slight improvement between 2013 and 2015. FCS has improved since 2008. The region has not been affected by insecurity from Boko Haram or other crises in recent years. Crop disease, pests and floods pose the biggest threats. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is reasonably good for the majority of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 44. Final convergence Southern Dosso Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 10-20% 15-25% 20-30% 35-45% Food consumption - Quality 30% 25% 45% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Nutrition 65% 20% 15% Overall convergence 40-50% 20-30% 15-25% 5-15% Population affected 146,679 81,488 65,190 32,595 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southern Dosso to improve their food security status, including: • Households have limited access to land (1.5 ha) in this more densely populated area • The zone is prone to flooding, crop and animal disease • Dietary diversity is poor

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Southern Dosso is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. Despite adequate rainfall in this zone, dietary diversity is poor. The prevalence of malnutrition in children under five has improved since 2012 though the last available data is from 2015.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 43 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Maradi Region 11: Northern Maradi - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant zone Departments: Belmo Northern Maradi includes two communes – Bermo and Figure 15. Zone 11 Reference Map Gadabédji and situated 200 km north of the administrative capital of Maradi. It has an area of 6,496 km² and makes up 15.54 percent of the Maradi Department. The zone’s low precipitation places it in the NE-03 livelihood group – Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism. The zone comprises 230 localities (administrative villages and small hamlets) of which 142 are in Bermo commune and 96 are in Gadabédji, but the population is only 66,237 (INS 2012). The nomadic population is comprised of Peuls, Touaregs and Hausas. The principal livelihoods include livestock, petty commerce, sale of firewood, seasonal migration and salaried work. However, livelihoods in this zone are often compromised by a deficit of forage for livestock caused by drought, flooding, animal disease and soil erosion. Man-made impacts include Source: FEWS NET brushfire, deforestation and a resurgence of unprotected traditional wells that are unsanitary and negatively impact the water table. According to the environmental plan, climate change has contributed to desertification as advancing sand dunes have overtaken critical pasture land that local communities depend on to feed their livestock. This degradation further inhibits the productive potential of other ecosystems such as valleys, inter-dune spaces and water points such as ponds. The rainy season is between July and September with a significant transhumant out-migration between November and May. This period also coincides with the peak season for casual labor. Households depend on the market for their cereal needs throughout the year. The dry season is between October and June and the lean season lasts between April and June. Cereal prices tend to reach their peak when livestock prices reach their nadir. Poor households comprise 28 percent of the population while 23 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have 3–4 cattle, 10 sheep and 2-3 donkeys and must rent pasturage, trade in small ruminants and work as casual laborers or sell forage. This is contrast to the wealthiest households who may have more than 30 cattle, 60–70 sheep, a camel, a horse and engaged in commercial trade of livestock. The poorest depend on the market to purchase millet and rice and consume milk from their cattle or borrow from their neighbors. The main shocks that households face in Zone 11 include drought, animal disease and flooding. Food security parameters in Northern Maradi Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Northern Maradi, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) and SSEXR collected for the DHS (2012), EVIAM (2013 and 2015) and the World Bank (Table 45). Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity and minimum acceptable diet in children 6-24 months from the 2012 DHS, USAID DDL 2013 and EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 26 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 67 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 7 percent spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Children’s dietary diversity data was poor, 75–85 percent of children do not eat a minimum diverse diet. Similar indirect evidence for minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months told a similar story whereby 70–90 percent of children do not have an acceptable diet. Though significant data was available, its reliability was ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Maradi Region rather than solely Zone 11. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 15–25 percent of households were in Level 1, 55–65 percent in Level 2, and 15–25 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and less than 1 percent of households have less resilient means

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 44 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

of income such as casual labor. Though recent, reliable HDDS data pertinent to this zone is missing, the SSEXR data appears quite good and may reflect the consumption of meat and milk due to the significant importance of livestock as a primary livelihood in this region. Table 45. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Children eating minimum 2012 DHS 1 4% 96% dietary diversity 2013 EVIAM 1 30% 70%

DIRECT Starchy Staple Expenditure

EVIDENCE 2014 World Bank 2 26% 67% 7% Ratio

2012 DHS 1 31% 69% Minimum Acceptable Diet (6- 24 mos) 2013 USAID DDL 1 10% 90%

2013 EVIAM 1 30% 70% Child dietary diversity (6-24 mos) 2015 EVIAM 1 17% 83% INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT

Children consume fruits, veg, 2012 DHS 1 24% 76% meat & dairy Conclusion 15-25% 55-65% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, Household Hunger Scale (HHS) and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, USAID, DDL, FEWS NET and WFP between 2008 and 2017 (Table 46). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and number of meals consumed per day collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017 WFP and Niger Government) suggest that a minority of households (5– 15 percent) face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to rCSI and number of meals consumed per day. The Household Hunger Score also found that 8 percent of households had an HHS > 2, indicative of Level 4. Some direct evidence collected for USAID’s DDL in 2013 for Maradi Region contradicted this result such as HDDS data collected specifically for the zone in 2013 whereby 70 percent of households had an HDDS <4, ie considered Level 3 and 4. However, this indicator had low reliability since data was collected for the entire region, but other HDDS data collected by the government between 2015 and 2017 suggests that a third of households have poor dietary diversity. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Northern Maradi were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that shows some deterioration. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that 25–35 percent of households had an HDDS < 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Northern Maradi were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 60–70 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from livestock and very few households engage in casual labor which are normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. Nonetheless, many household members migrate during the lean season to earn money outside the zone. Indirect evidence suggests that dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor and that 80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Other data shows very low literacy rates for Maradi region whereby only 12 percent of household heads are literate. Water access in this extremely dry region is also a major challenge for most households.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 45 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 46. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 1 84% 11% 5% 2010 WFP FSA 1 50% 32% 18% 2011 WFP FSA 1 76% 17% 7% 2014 WFP FSA 3 66% 20% 14% Food Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 3 78% 19% 3% Score (FCS) 2015 Niger Gov 3 87% 8% 5%

2016 EVIAM 3 77% 19% 4% 2017 EVIAM 2 79% 14% 7% 2017 Niger Gov 3 49% 23% 28%

2013 USAID DDL 1 8% 23% 69%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 EVIAM 2 61% 30% 9% Household Dietary 2015 Niger Gov 3 75% 21% 3% Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 3 31% 37% 32% 2017 EVIAM 2 21% 36% 43% 2017 Niger Gov 3 38% 33% 29% Household Hunger 2013 USAID DDL 1 61% 32% 8% Score HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% 3% (rCSI : 2014 WFP 1 69% (rCSI <5) 27% (rCSI : 5-20 ) Reduced Coping >20 ) Strategy Index 0% 13% 2015 WFP 1 99% (rCSI <5) 1% (rCSI : 5-20 ) (rCSI : >20 ) INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE 53% >3 5% 1 # of meals per day 2014 WFP 1 42% 2 meals meals/day meal/day Conclusion 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed the only direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS. Indirect evidence included data on underweight from the USAID DDL study in 2013. The high prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Northern Maradi. The data reveals moderate and medium severe stunting rates between 20 percent and 30 percent, respectively (DHS 2012). Underweight data for the region shows a similar situation, albeit a smaller proportion of children in Level 4. The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 47. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Stunting among Children 2012 DHS 1 53% 18% 29% (6-59 months) DIRECT EVIDENCE Underweight (<59 mos 2013 USAID DDL 1 53% 28% 19% weight for age) Conclusion 50% 20% 30% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 46 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Bermo based on 2012 stunting rates and 2013 underweight data. Access to potable water is one of the worst in the region with less than 10 percent of the population having access to it. Roughly 26 percent of households have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings Households in Northern Maradi are heavily dependent on livestock as their primary means of survival and practically no food is grown here due to extremely low precipitation. As a result, market dependency is high. Dietary diversity is extremely poor and malnutrition rates among children under 5 are very high. Nonetheless, FCS appears to be adequate and improving. The region has not been affected significantly by insecurity, but drought, desertification and animal diseases pose the biggest threats. Access to water and improved sanitation appear to be poor. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 48. Final convergence Northern Maradi Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 30% 30% 25% 15% Food consumption - Quality 15-25% 5565 15-25% Food consumption - Quantity 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Nutrition 50% 20% 30% Overall convergence 25% 25% 35% 15% Population affected 16,559 16,559 23,182 9,935 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northern Maradi to improve their food security status, including: • Insufficient pasture that requires populations to move herds constantly • Persistence of animal diseases that affect livestock • Extremely low precipitation and limited water points for human and animal consumption • High stunting rates possibly linked to limited knowledge of improved MCHN practices and access to care

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Northern Maradi is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 49 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends heavily on livestock for its survival, but low precipitation requires transhumance with herds to access seasonal pasture. Stunting rates among children are high and dietary diversity within households is also weak though food consumption quantity appears to be good despite the environmental challenges extant.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 47 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

12 : Central Maradi - Agropastoral dominant zone Departments: Dakoro, Mayahi The agro-ecological zone that encompasses Central Maradi Figure 16. Zone 12 Reference Map includes the departments of Dakoro and Mayahi and is located in the Agropastoral Belt livelihood zone (NE-04). This area receives 300-400 mm of rainfall per year that varies year to year by 20 percent. Most of the territory is dry, but some areas in the south support agricultural production. For several generations, this area was used primarily for livestock pasture and populated by pastoralists. In recent years, migrations from the south, including Nigeria, and loss livestock following severe droughts have altered this dynamic and farming has taken hold. In recent years, migrants have been drawn by vast and vacant land with good soil fertility and abundant pasture and contributes to a growing population estimated at 1,504,839 (INS 2012). Paradoxically, the region now produces more food during Source: FEWS NET years of adequate rainfall compared to areas further south with more precipitation and traditionally regarded as the breadbasket. Nonetheless, the area is frequently hit by dry spells, some households depend on their livestock as a form of economic security to mitigate this risk. The rainy season is between July and September and planting usually commences in June. Harvests begin in late September and household reliance on cereal purchase during the rest of the year depends on the previous harvest. Though there may be excellent harvests during a year of good rains, erratic rains and frequent drought can make the poorest households food insecure. The peak demand for labor occurs October and November during the harvest. Many individuals migrate outside of the zone for seasonal work during the dry season. Livestock sales reach their peak during the summer and autumn period. Poor households comprise 30 percent of the population while 17 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households farm 1.5–2 ha and have small ruminants and work as casual laborers. The wealthiest households farm up to 10 ha, own farm equipment and have small and large ruminants. Whereas wealthier households are somewhat resilient to drought and can rely on either crops or livestock to earn income, poorer households are primarily farmers and lack enough livestock to help them to be economically secure. The poorest depend on their own production and the market to purchase millet and barter with their neighbors. The main shocks that households face in Central Maradi include drought, animal and crop disease. Food security parameters in Central Maradi Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to the zone, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) and SSEXR collected for the DHS (2012), EVIAM (2013 and 2015), and the World Bank (Table 49). Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity and minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months from the 2012 DHS, USAID DDL 2013, and EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 26 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 66 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 8 percent spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Children’s dietary diversity data was poor, 80–90 percent of children do not eat a minimum diverse diet. Similar indirect evidence for minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months told a similar story whereby only 10 percent of children have an acceptable diet. Though significant data was available, its reliability was ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Maradi Region rather than solely Zone 12. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 30 percent of households were in Level 1, 60 percent in Level 2, and 10 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and less than 5–15 percent of households have less resilient means

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 48 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

of income such as casual labor and sale of firewood. Though recent, reliable HDDS data pertinent to this zone is missing, the SSEXR data appears adequate. Table 49. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 4% 96% Children eating minimum 2013 EVIAM 1 14% 86% dietary diversity 2015 Niger Gov 2 14% 86% DIRECT

EVIDENCE Starchy Staple Expenditure World 2014 2 26% 66% 8% Ratio Bank

2012 DHS 1 31% 69% Minimum Acceptable Diet (6-24 mos) 2013 USAID DDL 1 10% 90%

2013 EVIAM 1 30% 70% Child dietary diversity (6-24 mos) 2015 EVIAM 1 17% 83% INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT

Children consume fruits, 2012 DHS 1 24% 76% veg, meat & dairy Conclusion 25% 70% 5% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2016. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, HHS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by USAID, DDL, FEWS NET and WFP between 2008 and 2016 and the Niger Government (EVIAM Reports) in 2014 and 2015 (Table 50). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and months of food stocks stored by household collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008 - 2017) suggest that 10–20 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to rCSI. The Household Hunger Score also found that nearly half of households had an HHS > 2, indicative of Level 4. Although dietary diversity is poor for many households, data related to reduced coping and HEA survival deficit are quite good with few households in Level 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 0–10 percent of households in Central Maradi were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that appears to be stable. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that a third of households had an HDDS < 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Central Maradi were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 70–80 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that the majority of income here is earned from agricultural production and 10–20 percent engage in casual labor or sale of firewood which are normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. Nonetheless, this situation appears to have improved since 2010 and many household members migrate during the lean season to earn money outside the zone. Indirect evidence suggests that dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor and that 80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Other data shows very low literacy rates for Maradi region whereby only 12 percent of household heads are literate. Water access in this extremely dry region is also a major challenge for the majority of households.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 49 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 50. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 84% 11% 5% 2010 WFP FSA 1 50% 32% 18% 2011 WFP FSA 2 76% 17% 7% 2013 WFP FSA 2 54% 24% 23% 2015 WFP FSA 2 58% 23% 19% Food Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 2 49% 22% 29% Score (FCS) 2015 NCA 3 56% 32% 12% 2015 Niger Gov 3 58% 17% 25% 2016 Niger Gov 3 63% 22% 15% 2017 Niger Gov 3 55% 23% 22% 2017 EVIAM 2 49% 23% 28%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2013 USAID DDL 1 8% 23% 69% 2015 EVIAM 2 16% 38% 46% Household Dietary 2015 Niger Gov 3 28% 23% 49% Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 3 15% 46% 39% 2017 EVIAM 2 26% 31% 43% 2017 Niger Gov 3 16% 34% 50% Household Hunger Score 2013 USAID DDL 1 61% 32% 8% HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% 2008 WFP 2 97% (rCSI <5) 3% (rCSI : >20 ) 2010 WFP 1 83% (rCSI <5) 17% (rCSI <5) Reduced Coping

2011 WFP 2 95% (rCSI <5) 5% (rCSI : >20 ) Strategy Index 2013 WFP 2 97% (rCSI <5) 3% (rCSI : >20 ) 2015 WFP 1 91% (rCSI <5) 9% (rCSI : 5-20 ) 30% 1-3 19% <1 2013 EVIAM 1 51% >3 mo stock mo mo 36% 1-3 10% <1 2015 EVIAM 1 53% >3 mo stock INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT Months of food stocks mo mo 2016 EVIAM 1 75% 8% 18% 23% 4-6 17% 2-4 32% 1-2 28%<1 2017 ESS Niger Govt 1 mo mo mo mo Conclusion 70-80% 15-25% 0-10% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed the only direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS, 2013 and 2015 INS and 2015 NCA. Indirect evidence included data on night blindness during pregnancy from the 2015 NCA. The high prevalence of malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Central Maradi. The data reveals high moderate and severe stunting rates of 26 percent and 33 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 51. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Stunting among 2012 DHS 1 45% 23% 31% Children (6-59

DIRECT months)

EVIDENCE 2013 INS 2 39% 30% 30%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 50 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2015 NCA 2 43% 28% 30%

2015 INS 2 41% 26% 33%

Night blindness during 2015 NCA 2 73% 23% pregnancy T INDIREC EVIDENCE

Conclusion 40-50% 20-30% 25-35% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in the zone based on stunting rates that remained practically unchanged between 2012 and 2015. Roughly 73 percent of the population have access to potable water and less than 10 percent have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings Households in Central Maradi are heavily dependent on agriculture as their primary means of survival, but erratic rainfall year to year makes it hard for households without sufficient livestock to adequately cope. A recent study shows that 28 percent of households have less than one-month stock of food. Dietary diversity in the zone is extremely poor and malnutrition rates among children under 5 are very high. FCS appears to have worsened since 2008. The region has not been affected significantly by insecurity, but drought and crop diseases pose the biggest threats. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is reasonably good for most households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 52. Final convergence Central Maradi Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 30% 40% 25% 5% Food consumption - Quality 25% 70% 5% Food consumption - Quantity 70-80% 15-25% 0-10% Nutrition 40-50% 20-30% 25-35% Overall convergence 25-30% 45-55% 10-20% 5-10% Population affected 413,830 752,419 225,725 112,862 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Central Maradi to improve their food security status, including: • Erratic rainfall and persistent drought affect harvests in some years in this increasingly important crop production zone • Stunting rates among young children remain high and not improving • Dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor • Access to improved sanitation is limited

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Maradi is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 22 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends heavily on crop production for its survival, but erratic rainfall and frequent drought drastically impacts livelihoods and the poorest households have limited means of resilience, such as livestock and other assets to fall back on during economic hardships. Stunting rates among children are high and dietary diversity within households is also poor.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 51 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

13: Southwestern Maradi - Irrigated Cash Crops dominant zone Departments: Madarounfa This zone in southern Niger on the Nigeria border includes Figure 17. Zone 13 Reference Map the entirety of Madarounfa Department in the Southern Irrigated Cash Crops livelihood zone (NE-07). The population is estimated at 568,763 and the predominant livelihood is irrigated farming of vegetables, sesame, tobacco and legumes. In addition to these irrigated crops, farmers also grow maize and cassava that they harvest in the dry season. Though this zone is relatively well off based on global revenue from agriculture, there is a major gap between poor and wealthy households. As in many densely populated areas in Niger that have comparatively good rainfall, soils and irrigation potential, the poorest households farm very small parcels and lack the necessary capital to purchase inputs that would enable them to maximize their production. Source: FEWS NET Even the wealthiest households have irrigated plots less than 1 ha. Nonetheless, they have the financial means to purchase inputs and hire laborers to maximize output and profit. Almost all households farm larger rain-fed parcels where they grow millet and sorghum for their own consumption. They also grow groundnuts, cowpeas and hibiscus as cash crops and serve as vital revenue. Rainfall is abundant and relatively reliable in this zone and often averages 500 mm per year. The rainy season is between June and October, but planting continues throughout the year since most cash crops are irrigated. For this reason, casual labor is in demand year-long, but reaches its peak during the dry season. At this time of year, many also migrate for seasonal work. Poor households comprise 25 percent of the population while 23 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have a small amount of irrigated land, work as casual laborers and have a few small ruminants. The poorest depend on their own production and the market to purchase their food but also barter with their neighbors. The main shocks that households face in Zone 13 include crop disease, pests and flooding. Food security parameters in Southwestern Maradi Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including CEMDD (6–23 months) collected for the DHS (2012) and EVIAM (2013 and 2015) (Table 53). Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity and minimum acceptable diet in children 6-24 months from the 2012 DHS, USAID DDL 2013 and EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. Children’s dietary diversity data was poor, 80–90 percent of children do not eat a minimum diverse diet. Similar indirect evidence for minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months told a similar story whereby only 10 percent of children have an acceptable diet. Though significant data was available, its reliability was ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Maradi Region rather than solely Southwestern Maradi. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 20–30 percent of households were in Level 1, 55–65 percent in Level 2, and 10–20 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 60–80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as agricultural labor. Recent, reliable HDDS data pertinent to this zone is missing. Table 53. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southwestern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 4% 96% Children eating minimum dietary diversity DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2013 EVIAM 1 14% 86%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 52 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 31% 69% Minimum Acceptable Diet (6-

USAID 24 mos) 2013 1 10% 90% DDL Child dietary diversity (6-24 2013 EVIAM 1 30% 70% mos) INDIRECT INDIRECT 2015 EVIAM 1 17% 83% EVIDENCE Children consume fruits, veg, 2012 DHS 1 24% 76% meat & dairy Conclusion 10-20% 55-65% 20-30% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Southwestern Maradi drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, HHS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, USAID, DDL, FEWS NET and WFP between 2008 and 2017 (Table 54). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and months of food stocks stored by household collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to rCSI. The Household Hunger Score also found that 8 percent of households had an HHS > 2, indicative of Level 4. Some direct evidence collected such as HDDS data collected specifically for Southwestern Maradi suggest that over a third of households had an HDDS <4, i.e., considered Level 3 and 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Southwestern Maradi were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that roughly a third of households had an HDDS <4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Southwestern Maradi were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 55–65 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that the majority of income here is earned from agricultural production and 10–20 percent engage in casual labor year-round which is normally indicative of precarious livelihoods undertaken by poor households. Nonetheless, this may also be indicative of high population density and small size of irrigated farms and the fact that individuals can work as laborers throughout the year for extra income. As in many other areas of Niger, many individuals migrate during the lean season to earn money outside the zone. Indirect evidence suggests that dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor and that 80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Other data shows very low literacy rates for Maradi region whereby only 12 percent of household heads are literate – a likely constraint to improving health outcomes. Rainfall is abundant in this region and most farms are irrigated, thus drought does not pose a significant problem to crop production compared to other zones. Table 54. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southwestern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 58% 31% 12% 2010 WFP FSA 1 22% 18% 59% 2011 WFP FSA 2 68% 22% 10%

2013 WFP FSA 2 60% 20% 19% 2015 WFP FSA 2 45% 29% 27% Food Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 2 46% 28% 27% Score (FCS) 2015 NCA 3 84% 16% 0% 2015 Niger Gov 3 65% 18% 18% 2016 Niger Gov 3 61% 21% 18% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 EVIAM 2 73% 20% 7% 2017 Niger Gov 3 42% 23% 35% Household Dietary 2013 USAID DDL 1 8% 23% 69% Diversity 2015 EVIAM 2 17% 26% 57%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 53 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 Niger Gov 3 53% 35% 12% 2016 Niger Gov 3 25% 38% 37% 2017 EVIAM 2 37% 35% 28% 2017 Niger Gov 3 14% 30% 56% Household Hunger 2013 USAID DDL 1 61% 32% 8% Score HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% 2008 WFP 2 98% (rCSI <5) 2% (rCSI : >20 ) 2010 WFP 1 90% (rCSI <5) 10% (rCSI <5) Reduced Coping 2011 WFP 2 98% (rCSI <5) 2% (rCSI : >20 ) Strategy Index 2013 WFP 2 91% (rCSI <5) 9% (rCSI : >20 ) 2015 WFP 2 95% (rCSI <5) 5% (rCSI : 5-20 ) 2016 WFP 2 100% (rCSI <5) 0% (rCSI : 5-20 ) 2013 EVIAM 1 51% >3 mo stock 30% 1-3 mo 19% <1 mo 2015 EVIAM 1 53% >3 mo stock 36% 1-3 mo 10% <1 mo Months of food INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 2016 EVIAM 1 75% 8% 16% stocks ESS Niger 2017 1 23% 4-6 mo 17% 2-4 mo 32% 1-2 mo 28%<1 mo Govt Conclusion 55-65% 15-25% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS, 2013 and 2015 INS and 2015 NCA. Indirect evidence included data on night blindness during pregnancy from the 2015 NCA. The high prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in the zone. The data reveals medium prevalence of moderate and severe stunting rates of 28 percent and 22 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 55. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southwestern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 3 42% 28% 30% 2013 INS 2 59% 25% 16% Stunting among Children 2015 NCA 3 37% 39% 24% (6-59 months) DIRECT 2015 NCA 3 40% 35% 25% EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 51% 28% 22%

Night blindness during 2015 NCA 2 94% 6% pregnancy T INDIREC EVIDENCE

Conclusion 35-45% 30-40% 20-30% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for many households in Southwestern Maradi based on stunting rates, though there was a marginal improvement between 2012 and 2015. A third to a half of the population do not have access to potable water depending on the study. Overall findings Households are heavily dependent on income from irrigated cash crops and rain fed crop production of millet and sorghum, but land is scarce in this more densely populated region. Dietary diversity is extremely poor and malnutrition rates among children under 5 are very high, though there was a slight improvement between 2012 and 2015. FCS has worsened since 2008. The region has not been affected by insecurity from Boko Haram or other crises in recent years. Crop disease, pests and floods pose the biggest threats. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is reasonably good for most households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity:

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 54 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 56. Final convergence Southwestern Maradi Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 35-45% 15-25% 10-20% 20-30% Food consumption - Quality 10-20% 55-65% 20-30% Food consumption - Quantity 55-65% 15-25% 15-25% Nutrition 35-45% 30-40% 20-30% Overall convergence 25-35% 30-40% 15-25% 10-20% Population affected 170,629 199,067 113,752 85,314 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southwestern Maradi to improve their food security status, including: • Extremely small parcels of irrigated land available in densely populated area • Floods, crop diseases and pests are the biggest threats to production • Stunting rates among young children remain high and only slight improvement • Dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Southwestern Maradi is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends heavily on crop production for its survival but land availability, lack of inputs and the small size of existing plots for the poorest households impacts the earning potential of the poorest households. Many migrate seasonally or work as agricultural laborers as a means of resilience. Stunting rates among children are high and dietary diversity within households is also poor and food consumption quantity appears to be worsening.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 55 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

14: Southeastern Maradi - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone Departments: Tessaoua, Aguie, Gazaoua, Guidan Roumdji The Southeastern Maradi zone near the Nigerian border Figure 18. Zone 14 Reference Map includes the departments of Aguie, Gazaoua, Guidan- Roudmdji and Tessaoua in the Rainfed Millet and Sorghum Belt livelihood zone (NE-05). The zone also includes Niger’s third largest town - Maradi – an important transport, trade and agricultural hub for trade with Nigeria and within Niger. It is also the traditional capital of the Hausa people. There is much variation in terms of precipitation and soil fertility across this zone with a range of 400 mm of rain in the north and 600 mm in the south. Millet is predominantly grown where soils are sandy and rainfall is more limited. Sorghum is often grown alongside millet as well. Traditionally, this zone produced an excess of millet and sorghum, however production has dropped in recent years due to the increase in population and poor harvests. The Source: FEWS NET increasing fragmentation of smaller farm parcels, reduction in livestock holdings and dependence on casual labor has made the poorest more vulnerable to food insecurity. The rainy season is between May and September. Planting commences in March and harvests usually occur in September. Cereal purchases reach their peak in April when the stock from last year’s harvest begins to run out. The demand for agricultural labor continues throughout the year but reaches its peak in the last quarter of the year. Poor households comprise 26 percent of the population while 31 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have a 1–2 ha of land and own a few small ruminants. They often work as agricultural laborers and migrate seasonally for work. They sell firewood, forage, sesame cake and groundnuts. The poorest depend on their own production and the market to purchase their food but also barter with their neighbors. The main shocks that households face in Southeastern Maradi include erratic rainfall, drought and crop disease/pests. Food security parameters in Southeastern Maradi Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including CEMDD (6–23 months) and SSEXR collected for the DHS (2012), NCA (2015), Niger Government (2015) and the World Bank (Table 57). Indirect evidence was not available. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 21 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 68 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and 11 percent of households spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Children’s dietary diversity data was poor, 65–85 percent of children do not eat a minimum diverse diet. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 25–35 percent of households were in Level 1, 50–60 percent in Level 2, and 10– 20 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 60–80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as agricultural labor. Table 57. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southeastern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 4% 66% Children eating minimum dietary 2015 NCA 3 34% 86% diversity 2015 Niger Gov 2 22% 78% DIRECT

EVIDENCE Starchy Staple Expenditure Ratio 2014 World Bank 2 21% 68% 11% Conclusion 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 56 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, HHS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, USAID, DDL, FEWS NET, and WFP between 2008 and 2017 (Table 58). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and months of food stocks stored by household collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 10–20 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to rCSI. The Household Hunger Score also found that 8 percent of households had an HHS > 2, indicative of Level 4. Reliable data collected on HDDS between 2015 and 2017 reveals that 45–55 percent of households have poor dietary diversity. Based on an assessment of these various data, 20–30 percent of households in Southeastern Maradi were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that 35– 50 percent of households had an HDDS < 4. Based on an assessment of these various data, 20–30 percent of households in Southeastern Maradi were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that the majority of income here is earned from agricultural production, followed by petty commerce and livestock sales. Roughly 15–25 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood that are generally undertaken by poor households. Nonetheless, this may also be indicative of high population density and small size of farms and availability of agricultural labor work. As in many other areas of Niger, many individuals migrate during the lean season to earn money outside the zone. Indirect evidence suggests that dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor and that 60–70 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Other data shows very low literacy rates for Maradi region whereby only 12 percent of household heads are literate. Rainfall is more reliable in this zone; however drought and erratic rainfall do pose frequent threats to crop production in addition to pests and crop disease. Table 58. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southeastern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 57% 28% 16% 2010 WFP FSA 1 33% 22% 45% 2011 WFP FSA 2 62% 25% 14% 2013 WFP FSA 2 48% 24% 28% 2015 WFP FSA 2 56% 23% 21% Food Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 2 53% 26% 21% Score (FCS) 2015 NCA 3 82% 15% 3% 2015 Niger Gov 3 36% 25% 39% 2016 Niger Gov 3 50% 35% 15% 2017 EVIAM 2 47% 26% 27% 2017 Niger Gov 3 36% 31% 32%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2013 USAID DDL 1 8% 23% 69% 2015 EVIAM 2 18% 32% 50% Household Dietary 2015 Niger Gov 3 11% 31% 58% Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 3 20% 46% 34% 2017 EVIAM 2 19% 32% 49% 2017 Niger Gov 3 14% 26% 60% Household Hunger 2013 USAID DDL 1 61% 32% 8% Score HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 57 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP 2 84% (rCSI <5) 13% (rCSI 5-20) 2% (rCSI: >20) 2010 WFP 1 33% (rCSI <5) 43% (rCSI 5-20) 10% (rCSI <5) Reduced Coping 2011 WFP 2 83% (rCSI <5) 15% (rCSI 5-20) 3% (rCSI: >20) Strategy Index 2013 WFP 2 61% (rCSI <5) 32% (rCSI 5-20) 7% (rCSI: >20) 2015 WFP 2 55% (rCSI <5) 36% (rCSI 5-20) 9% (rCSI: 5-20) 2016 WFP 2 74% (rCSI <5) 25% (rCSI 5-20) 1% (rCSI: 5-20) 30% 1- 19% <1 2013 EVIAM 1 51% >3 mo stock 3 mo mo

INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 36% 1- 10% <1 2015 EVIAM 1 53% >3 mo stock Months of food 3 mo mo stocks 2016 EVIAM 1 75% 8% 16% 32% 1- 2017 ESS Niger Govt 1 23% 4-6 mo 17% 2-4 mo 28%<1 mo 2 mo Conclusion 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS, 2013 and 2015 INS and 2015 NCA. Indirect evidence was absent. The high prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Southeastern Maradi. The data reveals high moderate and severe stunting rates of 37 percent and 35 percent, respectively (NCA 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 59. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southeastern Maradi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 44% (Aguié) 24% 32% 2012 DHS 1 54% (Tessaoua) 19% 27% Stunting among Children 2013 INS 2 39% 27% 34% (6-59 months) DIRECT 2015 NCA 2 31% 38% 31% EVIDENCE 2015 NCA 3 29% 37% 35% 2015 INS 2 41% 23% 36% Conclusion 30-40% 30-40% 25-35% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for many households per stunting rates, a situation that worsened between 2012 and 2015. A third of the population do not have access to potable water and less than 10 percent have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings Households are heavily dependent on income from staple crops such as millet and sorghum and rain fed crop, but land is scarce in this more densely populated region. Dietary diversity is extremely poor and there is high prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5, and the situation worsened between 2012 and 2015. FCS also appears to be worsening apart from one recent study that shows a drastic improvement. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to only a third of households. Many of the indicators and general poverty rates point to a significant problem in this area. Lack of land, erratic rainfall and health indicators all suggest that much needs to be done here to improve food security of the poorest. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 60. Final convergence Southeastern Maradi Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 20-30% 0-10% 10-20% 50-60% Food consumption - Quality 25-35% 50-60% 10-20% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 20-30% 20-30%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 58 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Nutrition 30-40% 30-40% 25-35% Overall convergence 25-35% 30-40% 10-20% 15-25% Population affected 549,714 641,333 274,857 366,476 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southeastern Maradi to improve their food security status, including: • Extremely small parcels of land available in densely populated area • 15–25 percent of households have precarious livelihoods and forced to sell their possessions to cope • Drought, erratic rainfall, crop diseases and pests are the biggest threats to production • Stunting rates among young children are high • Dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Southeastern Maradi is classified with severe chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 4. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits of four months or more of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have severely stunted children. This population has unsustainable livelihoods such as crop production which is compromised by limited land availability, lack of inputs and the small size of existing plots for the poorest households that impacts the earning potential of the poorest households. They are highly vulnerable to seasonality and shocks and are likely to have very limited resilience. Many migrate seasonally or work as agricultural laborers as a means of resilience. Stunting rates among children are high and dietary diversity within households is also poor and food consumption quantity appears to be worsening.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 59 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Tahoua Region 15: Northern Tahoua - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant Departments: Tillia, Tchintabaraden, Abalak, Tassara The Northern Tahoua zone is near the Malian border Figure 19. Zone 15 Reference Map includes the departments of Abalak, Tassara, Tchintabaraden and Tillia in the Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism Belt (NE-03). The region is primarily sandy steppe with brush and has an estimated population of 573,536. Pastoralism is the only type of viable livelihood in this dry zone that only receives 100–200 mm rainfall per year. Though the pasture is ideal for large herds, pastoralists must constantly move their herds to seasonal pasture, traversing a broad circuit in the vast department from transhumant nomadic villages. In this challenging environment, it is essential for pastoralists to maintain a delicate equilibrium of sharing available pasture and water points with each other. Most transhumant herders tend to be Peul who manage their livestock and camels in a smaller Source: FEWS NET region since they need to drink more frequently compared to camels. Nomadic ethnic groups such as the Touaregs and Arabic speakers traverse the northern parts of the zone for pasture that can only be reached by camels who can travel longer distances without water. As noted, the primary livelihood here is livestock rearing, following by agropastoralism and irrigated agriculture. The pastoral zone includes nomadic populations (Peuhls and Touaregs) and transhumant populations. The more sedentary households tend to survive on both livestock and agriculture. Most of the livestock raised in this zone are traded in the south, but a minority of nomadic herders move and trade livestock in Algeria and Libya. The rainy season is between July and September and transhumant migration occurs between November and May. The migration period coincides with peak demand for laborers. Cereal purchases are necessary throughout the year. The dry season is from October to June and the peak leans season is between April and June. Poor households comprise 28 percent of the population while 23 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have only goats and sheep. They often work as herders for wealthier households, sell small livestock, milk product,s and forage and works as laborers in towns. The poorest depend on the market to purchase millet and rice, consume milk from their own animals and occasionally receive financial support from their employers or neighbors. The main shocks that households face in Northern Tahoua include drought, flooding, animal disease and brush fires. Food security parameters in Northern Tahoua Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including CEMDD (6–23 months) collected for the DHS (2012) and by Niger Government in 2015. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity, child consumption of meat, vegetables and fruit and minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months from the 2012 DHS, USAID DDL 2013 and EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. Children’s dietary diversity data was poor, 80–90 percent of children do not eat a minimum diverse diet. Similar indirect evidence for minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months told a conflicting story. Some data supports the direct evidence whereby only 10 percent of children have an acceptable diet, while other data shows that a third of children have a diverse and minimum acceptable diet. Direct evidence was limited and though there were more data points for in direct evidence, their reliability was ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Tahoua Region and not only for analysis zone 03. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 20 percent of households were in Level 1, 20 percent in Level 2, and 60 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 60 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

herders for other people’s livestock. SSEXR data, though available, was not used since the sample size for Northern Tahoua was less than 100, thus was not statistically reliable. Table 61. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 6% 94% Children eating minimum dietary diversity DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 22% 78%

Minimum Acceptable Diet (6- 2012 DHS 1 33% 67% 24 mos) 2013 USAID DDL 1 10% 90% Child dietary diversity (6-24 2013 EVIAM 1 41% 59% mos) 2015 EVIAM 1 18% 82% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE Children consume fruits, veg, 2012 DHS 1 34% 66% meat and dairy Conclusion 20% 20% 60% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in the zone drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, USAID, DDL, FEWS NET, and WFP between 2008 and 2017 (Table 62). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and months of food stocks stored by household collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of Households Dietary Diversity Score and indirect evidence related to rCSI and the number of meals consumed per day whereby the majority consume at least two meals per day. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Northern Tahoua were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 and other direct evidence related to HEA survival deficit show no households in Level 3 or 4. Indirect evidence from reducing CSI (rCSI) point to a lower figure while the number of meals per day suggest a higher level, though this depends on the categorization of two meals per day placing households in Level 3. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Northern Tahouawere classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 60–70 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from livestock and agricultural production. Roughly 15 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood that are generally undertaken by poor households. This is a dry zone that requires seasonal transhumant migration with livestock for pasture. Indirect evidence suggests that dietary diversity among children and adults is extremely poor and that 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. This is also driven by the fact that very little can grow here due to low precipitation which makes most pastoralist households dependent on the market year-round. Rainfall is practically negligible in this zone, but households are prone to shocks such as extreme drought, animal disease, bush fire and the rare flood. Table 62. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2008 WFP FSA 2 67% 18% 15% 2010 WFP FSA 1 60% 17% 24% Food Consumption Score (FCS) 2011 WFP FSA 2 70% 23% 8% 2013 WFP FSA 2 71% 12% 17%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 WFP FSA 2 54% 26% 20%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 61 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 WFP FSA 2 79% 13% 7% 2015 Niger Gov 3 34% 26% 40% 2016 Niger Gov 2 56% 30% 14% 2017 EVIAM 2 60% 20% 10% 2017 Niger Gov 3 51% 22% 28% 2015 EVIAM 2 29% 48% 23%

Household Dietary 2015 Niger Gov 3 22% 36% 42% Diversity Score 2016 Niger Gov 3 28% 37% 35% (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 2 29% 50% 21% 2017 Niger Gov 3 19% 41% 40% HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% 2008 WFP 2 61% (rCSI <5) 37%(rCSI 5-20) 2% (rCSI : >20 ) 2010 WFP 1 33% (rCSI <5) 47%(rCSI 5-20) 20% (rCSI <5) Reduced Coping 2011 WFP 2 64% (rCSI <5) 32%(rCSI 5-20) 3% (rCSI : >20 ) Strategy Index 2013 WFP 2 48% (rCSI <5) 36%(rCSI 5-20) 15% (rCSI : >20 ) 2015 WFP 2 49% (rCSI <5) 36%(rCSI 5-20) 9% (rCSI : 5-20 ) 2016 WFP 2 82% (rCSI <5) 18%(rCSI 5-20) 0% (rCSI : 5-20 ) 74% 2 1% 1 2008 WFP 3 25% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 49% 2 20% 1 2010 1 30% >3 meals/day meals meal/day INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT WFP 44% 2 2% 1 # of meals per day 2011 3 54% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 61% 2 1% 1 2013 3 38% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 57% 2 3% 1 2015 3 40% >3 meals/day meal/day meal/day Conclusion 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2013 INS. Indirect evidence was absent. The medium prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Zone 14. The data reveals high moderate and severe stunting rates of 26 percent and 11 percent, respectively (INS 2013). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 63. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 61% 23% 16% Stunting among Children (6-59 months)

DIRECT 58% (Abalak and

EVIDENCE 2012 DHS 3 15% 27% Tchintabaraden only) 2013 INS 2 63% 26% 11% Conclusion 60% 20% 20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for many households based on stunting rates. Roughly 44 percent of the population do not have access to potable water and less than 10 percent have access to improved sanitation.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 62 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Overall findings Households are heavily dependent on livestock in this extremely dry zone. There is medium prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5, though this data was collected for the entire department and already six years old. FCS does not appear to be improving. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to only a third of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 64. Final convergence Northern Tahoua Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 25-35% 25-35% 5-15% 25-35% Food consumption - Quality 20% 20% 60% Food consumption - Quantity 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Nutrition 60% 20% 20% Overall convergence 20% 45% 20% 15% Population affected 114,707 258,091 114,707 86,030 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northern Tahoua to improve their food security status, including: • Insufficient pasture due to low precipitation for livestock requires annual migration of livestock • Population exposed to recurrent drought, animal disease and bush fires • Incomes are low and many rely on more precarious livelihoods, including work as herders for others’ cattle • Access to improved sanitation is very limited

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Northern Tahoua is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2– 4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends heavily on livestock and must constantly be on the move to reach distant pasture. Many migrate seasonally or work as herders as a means to survive. Dietary diversity within households and access to improved sanitation are poor.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 63 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

16: Southwestern Tahoua - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant Departments: Bagaroua, Illela, Bimi N’Konni, Balbaza Southwestern Tahoua bordersNigeria and includes the Figure 20. Zone 16 Reference Map departments of Bagaroua, Birni N'Konni, Illéla, and Malbaza in the Rainfed Millet and Sorghum Belt (NE-05). The population of this area is 1,177,342 and considered less densely populated than neighboring Maradi Department. This is considered an agropastoral zone with rainfall that averages 400 mm to 600 mm per year, with more rainfall in the southern part of the zone. Soil fertility and harvests vary based on soil types. As a result, many farmers plant millet where rainfall is lower and soils are more sandy, while sorghum is planted in the wetter south. Cowpeas are also an important crop that contribute to income for many households in this zone. In Malbaza and N’Konni Departments in the south, high quality onions are grown during the dry season and quite valuable as domestic and Source: FEWS NET export produce. Apart from agriculture and livestock, households also depend on petty commerce and micro-enterprises related to handicrafts for local and regional sale. The area’s proximity to Nigeria offers excellent opportunities for cross border trade The rainy season is between May and September. There are seasonal water bodies that some depend on for home consumption and planting. Land preparation begins in March-April and ends in May-June while harvests are expected in September. Demand for agricultural labor exists year-round but reaches its pinnacle in the last quarter of the year. Irrigated crops are grown between October and April. Poor households comprise 28 percent of the population while 26 percent can be considered very poor. They farm 1–2 ha, own some small ruminants and poultry and work as agricultural laborers. The poorest consume millet and sorghum they have grown but depend mostly on the market for other household needs and occasionally receive financial support from their employers or neighbors. Drought is the primary shock that households face in Southwestern Tahoua. Food security parameters in Southwestern Tahoua Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including SSEXR collected by the World Bank in 2014. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity in children 6–24 months from the EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 56 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 43 percent spend 30-50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 2 percent of households spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Additional direct evidence included CEMDD that revealed only 20 percent of children have a diverse diet. Indirect evidence on children’s dietary diversity data showed a slightly different situation with a growing number of children consuming less diverse diets between 2013 and 2015, a change from 59 percent to 82 percent. Nonetheless, the reliability of indirect evidence was downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Tahoua Region rather than solely Zone 16. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 40 percent of households were in Level 1, 30 percent in Level 2, and 30 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 60–70 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as laborers. Primary income is derived from agricultural production and small business.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 64 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 65. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southwestern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Starchy Staple Expenditure Ratio 2014 World Bank 2 56% 43% 2% DIRECT

EVIDENCE Children Eating Minimum Dietary Diversity 2015 Niger Gov 2 20% 80%

2013 EVIAM 1 41% 59% Child dietary diversity (6-24 mos) 2015 EVIAM 1 18% 82% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 40% 30% 30% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, WFP and FEWS NET between 2008 and 2017. Indirect evidence included information on the number of meals eaten per day from WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 10–20 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to number of meals consumed per day whereby the majority consume at least 2 meals per day. However, one third of households have poor dietary diversity indicative of Level 4 with an HDDS score of 4 food groups or less. Based on an assessment of these various data, 5–15 percent of households Southwestern Tahoua were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 15–25 percent of households in Level 3 and other direct evidence related to HEA survival deficit show no households in Level 3 or 4. Similarly, over a third of households have poor dietary diversity indicative of Level 3 (HDDS 5–7). Indirect evidence related to the number of meals eaten per day was somewhat higher, ranging between 22 to 51 percent. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Southwestern Tahouawere classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 65–75 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from agricultural production and small business. Roughly 10–20 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood that are generally undertaken by poor households. This is an agriculturally productive region where farmers can grow on larger plots based on current population density and trade with Nigeria is also important. Indirect evidence suggests that approximately one third of households have one month or less stock of food and that 60–70 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Table 66. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southwestern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 68% 19% 13% 2010 WFP FSA 1 74% 14% 12% 2011 WFP FSA 2 63% 24% 13%

2013 WFP FSA 2 75% 15% 10% Food Consumption Score 2015 WFP FSA 2 68% 19% 13% (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 63% 25% 12% 2015 Niger Gov 3 65% 14% 22%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2016 Niger Gov 3 69% 14% 18% 2017 EVIAM 2 57% 26% 17% 2017 Niger Gov 3 70% 16% 14% 2015 EVIAM 2 26% 41% 33% Famine Early Warning Systems Network 65 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 Niger Gov 3 42% 23% 35% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 3 27% 48% 25% Score (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 2 28% 35% 37% 2017 Niger Gov 3 15% 30% 54% HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0%

33% 2 4% 1 2008 WFP 3 62% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 22% 2 8% 1 2013 1 70% >3 meals/day meals meal/day # of meals per day WFP 47% 2 14% 1 2015 3 39% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 51% 2 12% 1 INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 2016 3 37% >3 meals/day meals meal/day Conclusion 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2013 and 2015 INS. Indirect evidence was absent. The low prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a risk to the health, growth, and development of children. The data reveals low moderate and severe stunting rates of 22 percent and 12 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 67. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southwestern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 61% 23% 16% Stunting among Children DIRECT

EVIDENCE (6-59 months) 2013 INS 2 63% 25% 12% 2015 INS 2 66% 22% 12% Conclusion 60-70% 20-30% 5-15% Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households based on stunting rates, although recent child stunting data shows a small improvement. Nearly half of the population do not have access to potable water and only a quarter of households have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings Households in Southwestern Tahoua are dependent on agriculture and small business. There is low prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5, and the situation appears to have improved between 2012 and 2015. FCS remained stable between 2008 and 2017. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to only half of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 68. Final convergence Southwestern Tahoua Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 35% 45% 15% 5% Food consumption - Quality 40% 30% 30% Food consumption - Quantity 65-75% 15-25% 5-15% Nutrition 60-70% 20-30% 5-15% Overall convergence 40% 30% 25% 5% Population affected 470,936 353,202 294,335 58,867 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southwestern Tahoua to improve their food security status, including: Famine Early Warning Systems Network 66 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

• Population exposed to shocks such as erratic rainfall and drought • Incomes are low and many rely on more precarious livelihoods, including agricultural labor and firewood sales • Only 11 percent of children aged 6–15 are enrolled in school compared to the national average of 30 percent • Access to improved sanitation is very limited Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Southwestern Tahoua is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29% of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends on agricultural production and small business as primary livelihoods.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 67 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

17: Southeastern Tahoua - Irrigated Cash Crops dominant zone Departments: Madaoua, Bouza, Keifa This zone in Tahoua Region near the Nigeria border includes Figure 21. Zone 17 Reference Map the departments of Bouza, Keita, and Madaoua in the Southern Irrigated Cash Crops (NE-07) belt. It is an agropastoral area that includes irrigated crops. It has a population of 1,638,543 (INS. 2012) Rainfall varies between 300 mm in the north and 600 mm in the south. The primary production zone is along the Nigerian border and water for irrigation is derived from a shallow water table that crosses the Tarka Valley in the Tahoua Department. The region is well known for producing a highly sought-after variety of flavorful onion known as “Violet Galmi” where several thousand tons of onions are produced annually. They are exported throughout the region and to the European market. Most of the trade in Galmi onion takes place in neighboring Birni Source: FEWS NET N’Konni Department. The rainy season is between May and September but crop production occurs year round given the availability of irrigation for cash crops. As a result, there is demand for labor during most times of the year, though it reaches its peak during the dry season which lasts from October to May. Many also migrate to other areas during the dry season for work. Poor households comprise 26 percent of the population while 28 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households farm on some irrigated and rain-fed land, own some farming equipment and small ruminants and work as agricultural laborers. The poorest consume their own production, buy from the market and occasionally receive financial support from their employers or neighbors. Flooding is the primary shock that households face in this zone. Food security parameters in Southeastern Tahoua - Irrigated Cash Crops dominant zone Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including SSEXR collected by the World Bank in 2014. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity in children 6–24 months from the EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 47 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 49 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 4 percent of households spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Additional direct evidence included CEMDD that revealed only 16 percent of children have a diverse diet. Indirect evidence on children’s dietary diversity data also confirmed direct evidence that show a growing number of children consuming less diverse diets between 2013 and 2015, a change from 59 percent to 82 percent. Nonetheless, the reliability of indirect evidence was downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Tahoua Region rather than solely Southeastern Tahoua. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 45 percent of households were in Level 1, 40 percent in Level 2, and 15 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 60–70 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as laborers. Primary income is derived from agricultural production and petty commerce. Table 69. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southeastern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Starchy Staple World 2014 2 47% 49% 4% Expenditure Ratio Bank DIRECT EVIDENCE

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 68 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Children Eating Minimum 2015 INS 2 16% 84% Dietary Diversity

2013 EVIAM 1 41% 59% Child dietary diversity (6- 24 mos) INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 EVIAM 1 18% 82%

Conclusion 45% 40% 15% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, WFP, and FEWS NET between 2008 and 2017. Indirect evidence included information on the number of meals eaten per day from WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to number of meals consumed per day whereby the majority consume at least 2 meals per day. However, over half of households have poor dietary diversity indicative of Level 4 with an HDDS score of 4 food groups or less. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Southeastern Tahouawere classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 25–35 percent of households in Level 3 and other direct evidence related to HEA survival deficit show no households in Level 3 or 4. Similarly, a quarter of households have poor dietary diversity indicative of Level 3 (HDDS 5–7). Indirect evidence related to the number of meals eaten per day was somewhat higher, ranging between 34 to 51 percent over an eight-year period (2008–2016). Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Southeastern Tahouawere classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 65–75 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from agricultural production and small business. Roughly 10–20 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood that are generally undertaken by poor households. This is an agriculturally productive region where farmers have sufficient access to land and rainfall is adequate. Nonetheless, households diversify their income through various activities. Indirect evidence suggests that approximately one third of households have one month or less stock of food and that 60–70 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Households are at risk to occasional flooding in the valleys. Table 70. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southeastern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 71% 12% 18% 2010 WFP FSA 1 41% 16% 43% 2011 WFP FSA 2 73% 18% 9% 2013 WFP FSA 2 50% 21% 30% Food 2015 WFP FSA 2 54% 22% 24% Consumption Score (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 59% 29% 12% 2015 Niger Gov 3 50% 25% 25% 2016 Niger Gov 3 59% 22% 19%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 EVIAM 2 45% 26% 29% 2017 Niger Gov 3 42% 29% 29%

Household 2015 EVIAM 2 14% 42% 44% Dietary Diversity 2015 Niger Gov 3 34% 42% 24% Score (HDDS) 2016 Niger Gov 3 7% 19% 74%

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Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2017 EVIAM 2 25% 36% 39% 2017 Niger Gov 3 16% 30% 54% HEA Survival 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% Deficit

42% 2 8% 1 2008 WFP 3 50% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 39% 2 17% 1 2013 1 4% >3 meals/day # of meals per meals meal/day day WFP 34% 2 7% 1 2015 3 59% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 51% 2 13% 1 INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 2016 3 36% >3 meals/day meals meal/day Conclusion 65-75% 10-20% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2013 and 2015 INS. Indirect evidence was absent. The low prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a risk to the health, growth, and development of children in the zone. The data reveals moderate and severe stunting rates of 30 percent and 12 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 71. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southeastern Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2012 DHS 1 61% 23% 16% Stunting among Children (6-59 2013 INS 2 55% 28% 17%

DIRECT months) EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 58% 30% 12% Conclusion 50-60% 25-30% 15-20% Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Southeastern Tahoua based on stunting rates. Nearly half of the population do not have access to potable water and only a quarter of households have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings Households are dependent on agriculture and small business. There is low prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5. FCS also appears to have worsened since 2008. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to only half of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population facing varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 72. Final convergence Southeastern Tahoua Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 55% 25% 15% 5% Food consumption - Quality 45% 40% 15% Food consumption - Quantity 65-75% 10-20% 10-20% Nutrition 50-60% 25-30% 15-20% Overall convergence 40% 30% 20% 10% Population affected 655,417 491,562 327,708 163,854 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southeastern Tahoua to improve their food security status, including: • Incomes are low and many rely on more precarious livelihoods, including agricultural labor and firewood sales • Only 11 percent of children aged 6–15 are enrolled in school compared to the national average of 30 percent • Access to improved sanitation is very limited Famine Early Warning Systems Network 70 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Southeastern Tahouais classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends on agricultural production and small business as primary livelihoods, but its significant production of the violet galmi onion generates a significant amount of income for this region.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 71 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

18: Central Tahoua - Agropastoral dominant zone Departments: Tahoua Central Tahoua includes the totality of Tahoua Department Figure 22. Zone 18 Reference Map and is in the Agropastoral Belt (NE-04). It is a predominantly agropastoral zone that receives 300–400 mm of annual rainfall that varies 20 percent each year. It has a population of 717,259 (INS. 2012). Over the last several decades some substantial changes have been observed related to crop viability and a reduction in pasture following recurrent drought. Many pastoralists who lost livestock following back to back drought have turned to agriculture. However, the cumulative effect of continual drought is forcing some households to migrate south to Nigeria and other neighboring West African countries. Paradoxically, during a year of normal rainfall, crop production can even surpass that of southern zones. Source: FEWS NET Agriculture has become the primary livelihood in Tahoua and dominant crops include millet, sorghum and cowpea. There is also some vegetable production of onions, tomatoes, cabbage, peppers and cowpea in the Toro Valley. Most households have some livestock such as sheep, goats, poultry and cattle. The rainy season is between July and September and planting begins in June. Harvests are expected between September and November. Most households rely on the market to purchase cereals for their households when their stock is depleted in May or June. The peak demand for labor is in October and November during the harvest period. Many people migrate during the dry season to work in other areas. Livestock sales are most common during the lean season. Poor households comprise 32 percent of the population while 18 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households farm 1–2 ha, own small ruminants and work as agricultural laborers. The poorest consume their own production but also buy from the market where they are vulnerable to price increases. Erratic rainfall, drought, animal and crop disease are the primary shocks that households face in Central Tahoua. Food security parameters in Central Tahoua Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including SSEXR collected by the World Bank in 2014. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity in children 6-24 months from the EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the Starchy Staple Expenditure Ratio from the World Bank which indicated that 63 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 32 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and only 5 percent of households spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Indirect evidence on children’s dietary diversity data showed a slightly different situation with a growing number of children consuming less diverse diets between 2013 and 2015, a change from 59 percent to 82 percent. Nonetheless, the reliability of indirect evidence was downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Tahoua Region rather than solely Tahoua Department. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 50 percent of households were in Level 1, 30 percent in Level 2, and 20 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 70–80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as laborers. Primary income is derived from agricultural production and petty commerce.

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Table 73. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Starchy Staple Expenditure World 2014 2 63% 32% 5% Ratio Bank DIRECT EVIDENCE

2013 EVIAM 1 41% 59% Child dietary diversity (6-24 mos) INDIRECT INDIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 EVIAM 1 18% 82%

Conclusion 50% 30% 20% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Central Tahoua drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by WFP, the Niger Government and FEWS NET between 2008 and 2017. Indirect evidence included information on the number of meals eaten per day and months of household food stocks from WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable direct evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to number of meals consumed per day whereby the majority consume at least two meals per day and have at least two months of food stocks. However, nearly half of households have poor dietary diversity indicative of Level 4 with an HDDS score of four food groups or less. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10 percent of households in Central Tahoua were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 and HDDS placed 30–40 percent in Level 3 while HEA survival deficit show no households in this category. Indirect evidence related to the number of meals eaten per day was somewhat higher, ranging between 34 to 54 percent over an eight-year period (2008–2016). Based on an assessment of these various data, 20 percent of households in Central Tahoua were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 70 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from agricultural production and small business. Roughly 10–20 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood that are generally undertaken by poor households. Although farmers have sufficient access to land, precipitation is low and the zone is prone to drought. A year of bumper harvests can easily be followed by a severe drought. Nonetheless, households diversify their income through various activities. Indirect evidence suggests that approximately one third of households have one month or less stock of food and that 70–80 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Households are at risk to drought, animal, and crop disease. Table 74. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 96% 3% 1% 2010 WFP FSA 1 59% 16% 25% 2011 WFP FSA 2 67% 19% 14%

2013 WFP FSA 2 47% 25% 29% Food Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 2 39% 30% 31% Score (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 50% 15% 35% 2015 Niger Gov 3 55% 23% 22% 2016 Niger Gov 3 61% 20% 20%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 EVIAM 2 48% 8% 44% 2017 Niger Gov 3 53% 14% 33% Household Dietary 2014 EVIAM 2 35% 37% 29% Diversity Score 2015 EVIAM 2 9% 26% 65%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 73 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2015 Niger Gov 3 26% 31% 43% 2016 Niger Gov 3 17% 38% 45% 2017 EVIAM 2 21% 19% 60% 2017 Niger Gov 3 17% 36% 47% HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% 2008 WFP 2 54% >3 meals/day 54% 2 meals 3% 1 meal/day WFP

E 2013 1 38% >3 meals/day 49% 2 meals 13% 1 meal/day # of meals per day 2015 WFP 3 61% >3 meals/day 34% 2 meals 4% 1 meal/day 2016 WFP 3 38% >3 meals/day 35% 2 meals 27% 1 meal/day INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENC Months of Food EVIAM 2013 1 22% >3 mo food 40% 1-2 mo 38% <1 mo Stocks Conclusion 70% 20% 10% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2013 INS. Indirect evidence was absent. The low prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Central Tahoua. The data reveals moderate and severe stunting rates of 17 percent and 9 percent, respectively (INS 2013). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 75. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Tahoua Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 61% 23% 16% Stunting among Children (6-59 months) DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2013 INS 2 74% 17% 9%

Conclusion 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Central Tahoua based on stunting rates. Over half of the population do not have access to potable water and only 7 percent of households have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings In Central Tahoua, households are dependent on agriculture and small business. There is low prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5. FCS worsened dramatically since 2008. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to only half of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population face varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 76. Final convergence Central Tahoua Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 55% 25% 15% 5% Food consumption - Quality 50% 30% 20% Food consumption - Quantity 70% 20% 10% Nutrition 60-70% 15-25% 10-20% Overall convergence 40% 30% 20% 10% Population affected 286,903 215,177 143,451 71,725 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Central Tahoua to improve their food security status, including:

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 74 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

• The zone is susceptible to frequent drought and erratic rainfall that compromises harvests and income • Only 11 percent of children aged 6–15 are enrolled in school compared to the national average of 30 percent • Access to improved sanitation is very limited

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Tahoua is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2– 4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends on agricultural production and small business as primary livelihoods, but increasingly erratic rainfall and recurrent drought are forcing many to abandon this zone for more productive areas in the south or migrate elsewhere in West Africa.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 75 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Tillaberi Region 19: Northern Tilaberi - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism Departments: Abala, Banibangou, Ayorou Northern Tillaberi borders Mali and includes the Figure 23. Zone 19 Reference Map departments of Abala, Ayorou, and Banibangou in the Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism (NE-03) belt. It has a population of 333,857 (INS. 2012). The region is primarily sandy steppe with brush. Pastoralism is the only type of viable livelihood in this dry zone that only receives 100-200 mm rainfall per year. Though the pasture is ideal for large herds, pastoralists must constantly move their herds to seasonal pasture, traversing a broad circuit in the vast department from transhumant nomadic villages. In this challenging environment, it is essential for pastoralists to maintain a delicate equilibrium of sharing available pasture and water points with each other. Most transhumant herders tend to be Peul who manage their livestock and Source: FEWS NET camels in a smaller region since they need to drink more frequently compared to camels. Nomadic ethnic groups such as the Touaregs and Arabic speakers traverse the northern parts of the zone for pasture that can only be reached by camels who can travel longer distances without water. As noted, the primary livelihood here is livestock rearing, following by agropastoralism and irrigated agriculture. The pastoral zone includes nomadic populations (Peuhls and Touaregs) and transhumant populations. The more sedentary households tend to survive on both livestock and agriculture. The rainy season is between July and September with transhumant migration between November and May. This migration period coincides with the peak demand for labor and out-migration. Households depend on the market to buy cereals throughout the year. The dry season is between October and June and includes the lean season which lasts from April to June when livestock sales reach their peak. Poor households comprise 29 percent of the population while 26 percent can be considered very poor. Though there is limited information on the nature of the poorest households, information from other pastoral belts such as this one suggests that they have a few small ruminants such as goats and sheep, work as herders for wealthier households, sell small livestock and possibly milk products and forage and works as laborers in towns. Due to low precipitation in this zone, the poorest likely depend on the market to purchase cereals, consume milk from their own animals and occasionally receive financial support from their employers or neighbors. The main shocks that households face in Northern Tilaberi include drought, flooding, and crop and animal disease. It should also be noted that this region, especially the border areas, have been affected by terrorism from groups in Mali linked to Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS, e.g., Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO). Inhabitants are also affected by banditry that is prevalent in the border areas. Food security parameters in Northern Tilaberi Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Southern Dosso, the analysis team confronted the challenge of limited data relevant to the zone apart from CEMDD. However, this data was deemed to have limited reliability since it was not relevant to Northern Tilaberi alone. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 16 percent of households were in Level 1, and the remaining 84 percent are in Levels 2, 3, and 4. There was some indirect evidence related to child dietary diversity, minimum acceptable diet and underlying/causal factors pertaining to livelihood strategies, percentage of population below poverty line and percentage of cash expenditure spent on food. Such evidence reveals that very few children have a diverse diet, but roughly half had a minimum acceptable diet. However, the reliability of this data was deemed poor since it was collected in an exceptional year (2012) and pertained to the entire Tillaberi Region, while segregated data for Abala, Ayorou, and Banibangou were lacking. Underlying factors Famine Early Warning Systems Network 76 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

revealed that 75–85 percent of households spend 70 percent or more of their income on food and over 90 percent of households are below the national poverty line of $1.90 per day. A survey conducted for the department showed that households here diversify their incomes with an emphasis on agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock, but 10– 20 percent rely on precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood and begging. Despite this information and other data points related to contributing factors, the lack of reliable direct evidence on Food Consumption Quality did not permit the analysis team to reach a minimum confidence level to classify this indicator. Table 77. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Tilaberi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Starchy Staple Expenditure 2014 World Bank 2 63% 32% 5% Ratio DIRECT EVIDENCE

Child dietary diversity (6-24 2012 DHS 1 8% 92% mos) INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE Minimum acceptable diet 2012 DHS 1 51% 49%

Conclusion 16% 84% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to food consumption quantity in Northern Tilaberi drawn from direct evidence such as FCS and HDDS and indirect evidence using household dietary diversity. The FCS was derived from indicators collected by the Niger Government and WFP in 2014–2017, and HDDS by the Niger Government collected 2015–2017. Indirect evidence included information on the number of meals eaten per day and reducing coping strategy index. Collective evidence suggests that 20– 30 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). Neither FCS nor dietary diversity appeared to improve between 2014 and 2017 but this may be attributed to the closure of the border and restrictive security measures caused by ISIS-related insurgents from Mali. The same direct evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 with little change between 2014 and 2017. Data on HDDS was also available and shows that on aggregate 30–40 percent of households had an HDDS 5–7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 25–35 percent of households in Northern Tilaberi were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 40–50 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Table 78. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Tilaberi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2014 WFP FSA 2 54% 18% 29% 2015 WFP 1 45% 30% 25% Food Consumption 2015 Niger Gov 1 22% 9% 69%

Score (FCS) 2016 Niger Gov 1 56% 24% 19% 2017 EVIAM 2 55% 20% 25% 2017 Niger Gov 1 49% 19% 33% 2015 EVIAM 2 17% 40% 43% Household Dietary 2015 Niger Gov 2 9% 24% 66% DIRECT EVIDENCE Diversity Score 2016 Niger Gov 2 19% 45% 36% (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 2 29% 46% 34% 2017 Niger Gov 2 10% 30% 60% HEA Survival Deficit 2016 FEWS NET 2 100% 0% 2008 WFP 2 46% >3 meals/day 54% 2 meals 17% 1 meal/day # of meals per day 2013 WFP 2 53% >3 meals/day 47% 2 meals 9% 1 meal/day Reduced Coping 45% (rCSI 43% (rCSI EVIDENC INDIRECT INDIRECT 2015 WFP 2 12% (rCSI: >20 ) Strategy Index <5) 5-20)

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 77 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 63% (rCSI 32% (rCSI 2016 WFP 2 6% (rCSI: >20 ) <5) 5-20) Coping Strategy Index 2014 WFP 2 16% Conclusion 40-50% 25-35% 20-30% Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most households rely on agriculture production, livestock and petty commerce. A minority of households rely on more precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood. The degree to which this zone depends on cross-border trade with Mali or impacted economically by insecurity is unclear. Nutrition The analysis team only had a single indicator pertinent to nutrition data for Northern Tilaberi drawn from stunting data from the 2010 SMART study, 2012 DHS, and 2017 EDSN. There was no indirect evidence related to nutrition. Stunting data was determined to have low reliability since it was collected in an exceptional year and pertinent to the entire department, thus unlikely indicative of the situation in Northern Tilaberi. However, this single piece of data shows low prevalence of stunting in children 6-59 months. Table 79. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Tilaberi Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 46% 38% 16% Stunting among Children (6-59 months) 2010 SMART 1 50% 37% 13% DIRECT DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 EDSN 1 51% 36% 13% Conclusion 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from contributing factors suggest that over half of households have access to an improved water source and can access at least 15 liters per day. Overall findings A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northern Tilaberi to improve their food security status, including: • The zone has very low rainfall and changing climactic patterns are reducing pastureland • Parts of the zone near the Mali border are insecure due to terrorism, notably the 2017 attack on American and Nigerien troops • Households spend the bulk of their income on food

Table 80. Final convergence Northern Tilaberi Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 20% 25% 15% 40% Food consumption - Quality 16% 84% Food consumption - Quantity 40-50% 25-35% 20-30% Nutrition 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Overall convergence 20-30% 35-45% 15-25% 10-20% Population affected 83,464 133,542 66,771 50,078 Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Northern Tilaberi is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2– 4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends on livestock, but increasingly low rainfall levels and recurrent drought are reducing pastureland. Recent cross-border attacks from Mali-based ISIS-linked terrorists and bandits contribute to general insecurity in the zone.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 78 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

20: Central Tillabéri - Agropastoral dominant zone

Departments: Bankilare, Filingué, Ouallam, Téra, Tillabéri Central Tillaberi borders Mali and includes the Figure 24. Zone 20 Reference Map departments of Bankilare, Filingué, Ouallam, Téra, and Tillabéri in the Agropastoral (NE-04) belt. This zone is more densely populated given its proximity to Niamey with a population of 1,595,944 in the five departments (INS. 2012). This agroecological zone that lend itself well to agropastoral activities and has annual rainfall between 300-400 mm that may vary up to 20 percent per year. The rainy season is between July and September and planting begins in June. Harvests are expected at the end of September and November. The peak demand for labor is in October and November during the harvest period. Many individuals migrate during the lean season to work in other parts of Niger or neighboring countries. Livestock Source: FEWS NET sales reach their peak during the months of October and November when animals are at their maximum weight and at the time of religious festivals. Poor households comprise 30 percent of the population while 19 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households farm 1–2 ha, own small ruminants and work as agricultural laborers. The poorest consume their own production but also buy millet from the market, barter with their neighbors. Erratic rainfall, drought, flooding, animal and crop disease are the primary shocks that households face in Central Tillabéri. In addition to the shocks noted above, this zone has been affected by cross-border terrorism over the last several years. The deadly ambush attack on US and Nigerien soldiers by armed militants from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara in October 2017 occurred in Ouallam Department near the Mali border. The area remains insecure due to both terrorism and banditry. Food security parameters in Central Tillabéri Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including SSEXR collected by the World Bank in 2014 and CEMDD collected by the Niger Government in 2015. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity in children 6–24 months from the EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 28 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 54 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and 18 percent of households spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Indirect evidence on children’s minimum acceptable diet data showed a slightly better situation based on the findings Nonetheless, the reliability of this indirect evidence was downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Tillaberi Region rather than solely Central Tillabéri. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 30 percent of households were in Level 1, 50 percent in Level 2, and 20 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 15–25 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as casual labor and sale of firewood. Primary income is derived from agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock. Table 81. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Tillabéri Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Starchy Staple 2014 World Bank 2 28% 54% 18% Expenditure Ratio

DIRECT Children Eating Minimum

EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 11% 89% Dietary Diversity

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 79 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Minimum Acceptable 2012 DHS 1 51% 49% Diet (6-24 mos) INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 30% 50% 20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Central Tillabéri drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, WFP, and FEWS NET between 2008 and 2017. Indirect evidence included information on the number of meals eaten per day from WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 20–30 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is inconsistent with levels suggested by reliable direct evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to number of meals consumed per day whereby less than 10 percent of households consume only one meal per day. The figure is also consistent with reliable HDDS data from 2015. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Central Tillabéri were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 while HEA survival deficit show no households in this category. Indirect evidence related to the number of meals eaten per day was somewhat higher, ranging between 31 to 65 percent over an eight-year period (2008–2016). Based on an assessment of these various data, 25–35 percent of households in Central Tillabéri were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock. Roughly 20–30 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood or work as artisans - activities that are generally undertaken by poor households. Although farmers have sufficient access to land, precipitation is low, and the zone is prone to drought. Indirect evidence suggests that less than 10 percent of households are forced to sell their possessions during the lean season and that 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Households are at risk to drought, insecurity, animal and crop disease. Table 82. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Tillabéri Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 73% 17% 10% 2010 WFP FSA 1 32% 21% 47% 2011 WFP FSA 2 52% 29% 19% 2013 WFP FSA 2 52% 26% 22% Food Consumption Score 2015 WFP FSA 2 47% 22% 31% (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 57% 22% 21% 2015 Niger Gov 1 34% 17% 49% 2016 Niger Gov 1 34% 29% 37% 2017 EVIAM 2 60% 19% 21%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 Niger Gov 1 9% 11% 81% 2015 EVIAM 2 25% 41% 34% 2015 Niger Gov 1 15% 33% 52% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 1 8% 36% 56% Score (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 1 20% 38% 42% 2017 Niger Gov 1 3% 7% 90%

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Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% 54% 2 3% 1 2008 WFP 3 73% >3 meals/day meals meal/day

31% 2 9% 1 2010 WFP 3 61% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 21% 2 1% 1 2011 3 79% >3 meals/day meals meal/day # of meals per day WFP 41% 2 10% 1 2013 3 59% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 65% 2 13% 1 INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT 2015 3 35% >3 meals/day meals meal/day WFP 47% 1-2 2016 3 53% >3 mo food 8% <1 mo mo Conclusion 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2010 SMART, 2012 DHS and, 2013 and 2015 INS surveys. Indirect evidence was absent. The low prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Central Tillabéri. The data reveals low prevalence of moderate and severe stunting rates of approximately 25 percent and 15 percent, respectively (SMART 2010, DHS 2012, and INS 2013 and 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 83. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Tillabéri Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2010 SMART 1 60% 28% 12% Stunting among Children 2012 DHS 1 62% 22% 16% (6-59 months)

DIRECT 2013 INS 2 61% 28% 11% EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 58% 24% 18% Conclusion 60% 25% 15% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Central Tillabéri based on stunting rates. Over half of the population do not have access to potable water and less than 25 percent of households have good hygiene practices. Overall findings In Central Tillabéri, households are dependent on agriculture and petty commerce. There is low prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5, though this data was collected for the entire department and already six years old. FCS have remained stable since 2013. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to only half of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population facing varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 84. Final convergence Central Tillabéri Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 25-35% 15-25% 20-30% 20-30% Food consumption - Quality 30% 50% 20% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Nutrition 60% 25% 15% Overall convergence 25% 35% 25% 15% Population affected 398,986 558,580 398,986 239,391

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 81 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Central Tillabéri to improve their food security status, including: • 85 percent of children are not attending school • Many depend on precarious livelihoods to survive and 88 percent of the population earn less than $1.90 per day • Shocks such as drought, erratic rainfall, animal disease, crop pests and disease and insecurity negatively impact food security and income

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Tillabéri is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 39 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2– 4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends on agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock as primary livelihoods. An unusually high number of households are engaged in more risky livelihoods such as daily wage laborers that may impact their food security. Erratic rainfall, recurrent drought, crop/animal disease and more recent insecurity due to cross border terrorism will exacerbate this situation and may compel many to move to Niamey or migrate elsewhere in Niger, West Africa, or outside the continent.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 82 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

21: Southern Tillabéri - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone Departments: Torodi, Say, Kollo, Tagazar, Gotheye Southern Tillabéri is near the Burkina Faso border includes Figure 25. Zone 21 Reference Map the departments of Gotheye, Kollo, Say, Tagazar, and Torodi Departments. It is in the Rainfed Millet and Sorghum (NE-05) belt and receives 400–600 mm rainfall per annum. The departments have a collective population of 1,458,318 (INS. 2012). These departments surround Niamey and much of their production is destined for the urban market, while others may live in surrounding zones but commute to the capital. The zone is a mosaic of agroecological zones whereby rice is grown in Kollo, Say and Gothèy, while millet, sorghum, cowpea and vegetables are grown in Torodi and Tagazar departments. Many households have livestock and others living near the Niger river are engaged in fishing. As noted, the area’s proximity to both Niamey, Benin and Burkina Faso are ideal for petty commerce and opportunities for salaried work. Source: FEWS NET The rainy season is between May and September and planting begins in March. Harvests are expected in September. The peak demand for labor is in October and November during the harvest period. In some areas, two rice production seasons are possible given the availability of water. Households are dependent on the market for their cereal purchases during the height of the lean season between April and August. Demand for labor is keen throughout the year but reaches its peak during the planting and harvest periods. Poor households comprise 28 percent of the population while 26 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households farm 1–2 ha, own small ruminants and work as agricultural laborers or collect and sell firewood and straw for livestock. The poorest consume their own production but also buy from the market and some receive food aid from humanitarian agencies. Many households in this zone migrate during the lean season to work in Niamey or in neighboring countries such as Nigeria, Bénin, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. Erratic rainfall, drought, flooding, animal and crop disease are the primary shocks that households face in Southern Tillabéri. Food security parameters in Southern Tillabéri Food consumption quality The analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors related to food consumption quality, including CEMDD and SSEXR collected by the Niger Government, DHS and World Bank in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity in children 6–24 months from the EVIAM 2015 report. The strongest piece of evidence on dietary quality was the SSEXR from the World Bank which indicated that 24 percent of households spend < 30 percent of total food expenditures on starchy staples (Level 1), 68 percent spend 30–50 percent on starchy starches (Level 2) and 8 percent of households spend greater than 50 percent (Levels 3 and 4). Indirect evidence on children’s dietary diversity showed a much worse situation insofar as 80–90 percent of children do not eat a diverse diet. Nonetheless, the reliability of some of the indirect evidence was downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Tillaberi Region rather than solely Southern Tillabéri. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 10–20 percent of households were in Level 1, 60–70 percent in Level 2, and 15–25 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 65–75 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 10–20 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as casual labor and sale of firewood. Primary income is derived from agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 83 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 85. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southern Tillabéri Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 8% 92% Children eating minimum 2014 EVIAM 1 19% 81% dietary diversity 2015 Niger Gov 2 21% 79%

DIRECT Starchy Staple Expenditure EVIDENCE 2014 World Bank 2 24% 68% 8% Ratio

Dietary diversity (6-24 mos) 2012 DHS 1 19% 81% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 10-20% 60-70% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Southern Tillabéri drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, WFP and FEWS NET between 2008 and 2017. Indirect evidence included information on the number of months of food stocks from WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggest that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable direct evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to number of months of food stocks present within households. However, the figure is inconsistent with reliable HDDS data from 2015 that shows 40 percent of households have poor dietary diversity equivalent to a Level 4 classification. Based on an assessment of these various data, 25–35 percent of households in Southern Tillabéri were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by WFP and the Niger Government suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 while HEA survival deficit show no households in this category. Indirect evidence related to months of food stocks was in roughly the same range, ranging between 17 to 41 percent over an eight-year period (2008–2016). Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Southern Tillabéri were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income is earned from agricultural production, petty commerce, and livestock. Roughly 10–20 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood or work as artisans - activities that are generally undertaken by poor households. Rainfall in this region is better than most parts of Niger and these departments supply their production for the urban population. Indirect evidence suggests that less than 90 percent of households earn less than $1.90m per day and that 65–75 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Households are at risk to drought, flooding, animal and crop disease. Table 86. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southern Tillabéri Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 68% 19% 13% 2010 WFP FSA 1 37% 21% 42% 2011 WFP FSA 2 54% 27% 19% 2013 WFP FSA 2 64% 22% 14% Food Consumption Score 2015 WFP FSA 2 50% 24% 25% (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 43% 35% 21%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 1 20% 23% 58% 2016 Niger Gov 1 20% 18% 62% 2017 EVIAM 2 56% 25% 19%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 84 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2017 Niger Gov 1 29% 30% 41% 2015 EVIAM 2 19% 39% 42% 2015 Niger Gov 1 8% 33% 59% Household Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 1 20% 33% 48% Score (HDDS) 2017 EVIAM 1 20% 38% 42% 2017 Niger Gov 1 15% 19% 66% HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0%

2013 WFP 1 31% >3 mo food stock 40% 1-2 mo 29% <1 mo 2015 WFP 1 36% >3 mo food stock 41% 1-2 mo 23% <1 mo Months of food stocks 2016 WFP 1 54% >3 mo food stock 17% 1-2 mo 29% <1 mo INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 WFP 1 52% >3 mo food stock 29% 1-2 mo 19% <1 mo Conclusion 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2012 DHS and 2013 and 2015 INS. Indirect evidence was absent. The low prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Southern Tillabéri. The data reveals moderate and severe stunting rates of 27 percent and 15 percent, respectively (INS 2015). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 87. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southern Tillabéri Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 62% 22% 16% Stunting among 2013 INS 2 60% 27% 13% Children (6-59

DIRECT months) EVIDENCE 2015 INS 2 58% 27% 15%

Conclusion 45-55% 30-40% 10-20%

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Southern Tillabéri based on stunting rates. Over half of the population have access to potable water and only 0–10 percent of households have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings In Southern Tillabéri, households are dependent on agriculture, petty commerce and livestock. There is low prevalence of malnutrition among children under 5, though this data was collected for the entire department and already six years old. FCS based on reliable data sources have remained nearly the same since 2008. Access to improved sanitation is poor, while drinking water access is available to just over half of households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population facing varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 88. Final convergence Southern Tillabéri Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 15-25% 20-30% 15-25% 30-40% Food consumption - Quality 10-20% 60-70% 15-25% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Nutrition 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Overall convergence 15-25% 40-50% 15-25% 10-20% Population affected 291,663 656,243 291,663 218,747

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 85 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southern Tillabéri to improve their food security status, including: • Households employ multiple livelihood strategies, yet incomes remain low and many must migrate elsewhere to earn enough • Food consumption quality has not improved in the past decade • Households are exposed to hazards such as drought, flooding and animal and crop disease • Access to improved sanitation is extremely low

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data from available data and underlying factors analyzed, Southern Tillabéri is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 34 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2– 4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends on agricultural production, petty commerce and livestock as primary livelihoods. Land appears to be available for farming in this zone and rainfall is above average. Its proximity to Niamey, Burkina Faso and Benin offer opportunities for farmers to access these markets and prices in such markets tend to be lower than more remote locales. Nonetheless, incomes are low and necessitate seasonal migration for work, sanitation and hygiene are poor and only half have access to potable water.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 86 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Zinder Region 22: Northern Zinder - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism dominant zone Departments: Tesker, Tarka Northern Zinder includes the departments of Tarka and Figure 26. Zone 22 Reference Map Tesker in the Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism (NE-03) belt. It has a population of 168,192 (INS. 2012). The region is primarily sandy steppe with brush. Pastoralism is the only type of viable livelihood in this dry zone that only receives 100–200 mm rainfall per year. Though the pasture is ideal for large herds, pastoralists must constantly move their herds to seasonal pasture, traversing a broad circuit in the vast department from transhumant nomadic villages. In this challenging environment, it is essential for pastoralists to maintain a delicate equilibrium of sharing available pasture and water points with each other. Most transhumant herders tend to be Peul who manage their livestock and camels in a smaller region since they need to drink more frequently compared to camels. Nomadic ethnic groups Source: FEWS NET such as the Touaregs and Arabic speakers traverse the northern parts of the zone for pasture that can only be reached by camels who can travel longer distances without water. As noted, the primary livelihood here is livestock rearing, following by agropastoralism and irrigated agriculture. The pastoral zone includes nomadic populations (Peuhls and Touaregs) and transhumant populations. The more sedentary households tend to survive on both livestock and agriculture. Similar to other regions in Niger, the ecosystem in Zinder has been degraded due to overpopulation and climate change that has wrought significant rainfall variability. Livelihoods are divided between the north where transhumant and nomadic migration of cattle and camels prevails and the south where rain-fed cereal crops and irrigated cash crops prevail. The rainy season is between July and September with transhumant migration between November and May. This migration period coincides with the peak demand for labor and out-migration. Households depend on the market to buy cereals throughout the year. The dry season is between October and June and includes the lean season which lasts from April to June when livestock sales reach their peak. Poor households comprise 28 percent of the population while 23 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households have small ruminants and a handful of large cattle. They occasionally work as herders for others with large herds or sell their small livestock or milk and migrate seasonally for work. The poorest depend on their own production and the market to purchase millet and rice and receive assistance from their families or employers. The main shocks that households face in Northern Zinder include drought, animal disease and bush fire. Food security parameters in Northern Zinder Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Northern Zinder, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) collected for the DHS (2012) and Niger Government (2015) (Table 89). Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity and minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months from the 2012 DHS, USAID DDL 2013, and EVIAM 2013 and 2015 reports. The only piece of direct evidence on dietary quality was CEMDD from the DHS which indicated that 4 percent of children eat a minimum dietary diversity. Similar indirect evidence for minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months told a similar story whereby only 5 percent of children have an acceptable diet. Though significant data was available, its reliability was ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Zinder Region rather than solely Northern Zinder. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 10 percent of households were in Level 1, 25 percent in Level 2, and 65 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 87 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

income on food and less than 5 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as casual labor and sale of firewood or straw for animals. Table 89. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Northern Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2012 DHS 1 4% 96% Children eating minimum dietary diversity DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 35% 65% Minimum Acceptable Diet (6- 2012 DHS 1 33% 67% 24 mos) 2013 USAID DDL 1 5% 95% Child dietary diversity (6-24 2013 EVIAM 1 62% 38% mos) 2015 EVIAM 1 73% 27% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE Children consume fruits, veg, 2012 DHS 1 12% 88% meat and dairy Conclusion 10% 25% 65% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Northern Zinderdrawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, HHS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, USAID, DDL, FEWS NET and WFP between 2008 and 2017 (Table 90). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and months of food stocks stored by household collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggests that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of Household Dietary Diversity Score, HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to rCSI, the number of meals eaten per day for this category (1 meal) and presence of hunger in the household. The Household Hunger Score also found that 20 percent of households had an HHS > 2, indicative of Level 4. However, this indicator had low reliability since data was collected for the entire region. Based on an assessment of these various data, 15–25 percent of households in Northern Zinderwere classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 20–30 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that appears to be stable. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that 40 percent of households had an HDDS between 5 and 7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 25–35 percent of households in Northern Zinder were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from livestock (> 90 percent) and very few engage in precarious livelihoods. Nonetheless, climactic conditions in this already dry zone are negatively affecting available pasture and the limited crop production that occurs in the southern part of the zone. Many individuals already migrate during the dry season, but this dynamic may continue to worsen over time. Direct evidence suggests that dietary diversity is poor with no households consuming more than seven food groups. Most households (85 percent) spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Water access in this extremely dry region is also a major challenge for most households whereby 95 percent lack access to it and only 24 percent have access to improved sanitation such as latrines or toilets. Table 90. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Northern Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2011 WFP FSA 2 59% 30% 11%

2013 WFP FSA 2 63% 20% 17% 2015 WFP FSA 3 48% 25% 27% Food Consumption 2016 WFP FSA 2 92% 6% 2% Score (FCS) 2015 Niger Gov 2 29% 31% 41% 2016 Niger Gov 2 37% 15% 48%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2017 EVIAM 2 66% 23% 11% 2017 Niger Gov 2 67% 19% 14% Famine Early Warning Systems Network 88 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2013 USAID DDL 1 0% 59% 41% 2015 EVIAM 2 34% 47% 19% Household Dietary 2015 Niger Gov 2 17% 30% 52% Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 45% 33% 22% 2017 EVIAM 2 31% 43% 26% 2017 Niger Gov 2 22% 47% 31% Household Hunger 2013 USAID DDL 1 80% 0% 20% Score HEA Survival Deficit 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0%

21% (rCSI : 5- 30% (rCSI : 2015 WFP 2 19% (rCSI <5) Reduced Coping 20 ) >20 ) Strategy Index 2016 WFP 1 95% (rCSI <5) 5% (rCSI: 5-20)

EVIDENCE 2011 WFP 2 95% (rCSI <5) 5% (rCSI : >20 ) Number of meals per 45% 2 10% 1 2015 WFP 3 45% >3 meals/day day meals/day meal/day Presence of hunger in 80% little or no hunger in 18% moderate 2% hunger in INDIRECT INDIRECT 2013 USAID DDL 2 household HH hunger HH Conclusion 45-55% 25-35% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed the only direct evidence data available on stunting from the 2015 NCA. Indirect evidence included data on underweight and wasting in children from USAID DDL study in 2013. The medium prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Northern Zinder. The data reveals at the regional level the prevalence of moderate and severe stunting rates is 23 percent and 29 percent, respectively (DHS 2012). Malnourished children are more likely to die of infectious diseases such as diarrhea, pneumonia, and measles and at risk of poorer cognitive and motor development and lower school achievement (Black et al. 2013, Grantham-McGregor et al. 2007; Hoddinott et al. 2008). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 91. Key Indicators of nutrition in Northern Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Stunting among Children 2015 NCA 1 50% 20% 30% (6-59 months) DIRECT EVIDENCE

Underweight 2013 USAID DDL 1 55% 27% 18% INDIRECT INDIRECT

EVIDENCE Wasting 2013 USAID DDL 1 85% 15%

Conclusion 50% 25% 25%

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Northern Zinder based on stunting rates. A staggering 95 percent of the population lack access to potable water and less than 25 percent have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings In Northern Zinder, households are heavily dependent on livestock as their primary means of survival, but climate change and desertification pose major threats to the long-term viability of this zone. Many are migrating during the dry season to work. Dietary diversity in Northern Zinder is extremely poor and malnutrition rates among children under 5 are very high. FCS have remained stable since 2011. The region has not been affected significantly by insecurity, but drought and animal diseases and bush fire pose the biggest threats. Access to improved sanitation and access to drinking water access are

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 89 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019 extremely poor for most households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population facing varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 92. Final convergence Northern Zinder Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 5% 10% 25% 60% Food consumption - Quality 10% 25% 65% Food consumption - Quantity 70% 20% 10% Nutrition 50% 25% 25% Overall convergence 25-35%% 15-25% 40-50% 0-10% Population affected 50,458 33,638 75,686 12,614 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Northern Zinder to improve their food security status, including: • The lack of pasture for livestock requires massive movements of livestock and the situation is getting worse • Stunting rates among young children remain high and not improving • Households face hazards such as drought, animal disease and bush fire • Only 5 percent of the population have access to potable water

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Northern Zinder is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 49 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends heavily on livestock for its survival, but climate change and desertification are shrinking available pasture rapidly. This impacts livelihoods all households and many must migrate seasonally as a means of resilience. Stunting rates among children are high and dietary diversity within households is also poor and access to water is a major challenge.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 90 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

23: Central Zinder - Agropastoral dominant zone Departments: Damagaram Takaya, Gouré, Tanout Central Zinder includes Damagaram Takaya, Gouré, and Figure 27. Zone 23 Reference Map Tanout departments and is in the Agropastoral Belt livelihood zone (NE-04). This area receives 300–400 mm of rainfall per year that varies year to year by 20 percent. Most of the territory is situated on the cusp of the precipitation that makes agricultural production feasible. For several generations, this area was used primarily for livestock pasture and populated by pastoralists. In recent years, migrations from the south, including Nigeria, and loss livestock following severe droughts have altered this dynamic and farming has taken hold. In recent years, migrants have been drawn by vast and vacant land with good soil fertility and abundant pasture and contributes to a growing population estimated at 1,256,731 (INS 2012). Source: FEWS NET Paradoxically, the region now produces more food during years of adequate rainfall compared to areas further south with more precipitation and traditionally regarded as the breadbasket. Nonetheless, the area is frequently hit by dry spells, some households depend on their livestock as a form of economic security to mitigate this risk. Traditionally, this zone produced an excess of millet and sorghum, however production has dropped in recent years due to the increase in population and reduced rainfall as a result of climate change. The northern part of this zone tends to be predominantly pastoralists, but millet is also grown in sandy soils and where rainfall is more limited. The southern zone is known for producing rainfed cereals (such as sorghum and millet) and irrigated cash crops, including sugar cane, vegetables, and peppers, especially in the Matameye and Magaria Departments. This particular region of Zinder produces the largest quantities of millet in Niger. As such, millet grown here is sold throughout the country and the West Africa region. The rainy season is between July and September and planting begins in June. Harvests begin at the end of September and households buy most of their cereal once they have run out of stock in the lean season. The peak demand for labor is during the harvest in October and November. This is also the time when many individuals migrate for seasonal work. Livestock sales peak during the summer and autumn months. Poor households comprise 32 percent of the population while 18 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households work as laborers, farm 1–2 ha and have small ruminants. They tend to migrate for work but also sell firewood, forage and groundnuts. The poorest depend on their own production of millet and sorghum, but also buy from the market or barter. The main shocks that households face in Central ZInder include parasitic attacks, dust storms, animal disease and a drop in the water table. Food security parameters in Central Zinder Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Central Zinder, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) collected for the NCA (2015). Indirect evidence was absent. The only piece of direct evidence was related to child dietary quality (CEMDD) from 2015 studies by NCA and the Niger Government. The Niger Government study indicated that 31 percent of children eat a minimum dietary diversity. Indirect evidence was absent. Given the lack of available data, the analysis team considered underlying factors to determine its convergence. They noted that food is generally available in this agropastoral zone as many households are heavily engaged in crop production, rearing livestock and petty commerce. Many depend on livestock as an important coping mechanism. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 25–35 percent of households were in Level 1, 40–50 percent in Level 2, and 20–30 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 91 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

65–75 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and 15–25 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as casual labor and sale of firewood or straw for animals. Table 93. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Central Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2015 NCA 2 4% 96% Children eating minimum dietary diversity DIRECT 2015 Niger Gov 3 31% 69% EVIDENCE

Underlying factors 35-45% 25-35% 25-35% INDIRECT INDIRECT EVIDENCE

Conclusion 25-35% 40-50% 20-30% Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Central Zinder drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by USAID, DDL, FEWS NET, NCA and WFP between 2008 and 2017 Indirect evidence was absent. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggests that 10–20 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by other direct evidence such as HEA Survival Deficit. Although HDDS data was slightly worse for this group, showing 25–35 percent of households with poor dietary diversity. Based on an assessment of these various data, 0–10 percent of households in Central Zinder were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by WFP suggest 25–35 percent of households in Level 3 with a trend that appears to be stable. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that 40–50 percent of households had an HDDS between 5 and 7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 30–40 percent of households in Central Zinder were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 40–50 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from agriculture, livestock and petty commerce. Roughly 10–20 percent of households engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor, sale of firewood or straw or work as artisans. Despite challenging climactic conditions in this zone, most households several months of food stocks. Food access was also deemed to be good and livestock ownership serves as an additional coping mechanism. Many individuals migrate during the dry season, to boost annual income. Direct evidence suggests that dietary diversity is better than other comparable areas. Table 94. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Central Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 73% 21% 6% 2010 WFP FSA 1 40% 26% 34% 2011 WFP FSA 2 59% 30% 11% 2013 WFP FSA 2 63% 20% 17%

Food 2015 WFP FSA 2 44% 30% 26% Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 2 60% 30% 10% Score (FCS) 2015 NCA 3 49% 39% 12%

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 53% 27% 20% 2016 Niger Gov 2 90% 9% 1% 2017 EVIAM 2 66% 24% 10% 2017 Niger Gov 2 59% 27% 14%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 92 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2013 USAID DDL 2 41% 36% 23% 2015 EVIAM 2 33% 42% 25% Household 2015 Niger Gov 2 18% 58% 23% Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 21% 41% 38% 2017 EVIAM 2 38% 45% 17% 2017 Niger Gov 2 18% 47% 35% HEA Survival 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% Deficit Conclusion 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed direct evidence data available on stunting from various source. Indirect evidence was absent. Malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Central Zinder. The data reveals medium prevalence moderate and severe stunting rates between 15–25 percent, respectively (Table 95). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 95. Key Indicators of nutrition in Central Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2010 SMART 1 38% 33% 29% 2010 SMART 1 44% 26% 30% 2011 SMART 1 35% 35% 30% 2012 SMART 1 51% 27% 22% 2013 INS 1 52% 28% 20% Stunting among Children 2013 INS 3 56% 28% 16% (6-59 months) 2014 Niger Gov 1 52% 27% 22%

RECT EVIDENCE 2015 NCA 3 40% (Agropastoral zone: Round 1) 32% 28% DI 2015 NCA 3 37% (Agropastoral zone: Round 2) 37% 27% 2015 INS 2 49% 21% 30% 2017 EDSN 1 60% 27% 13% Conclusion 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that chronic malnutrition continues to be a problem for some households in Central Zinder based on stunting rates. A staggering 95 percent of the population lack access to potable water and less than 10 percent have access to improved sanitation. Overall findings In Central Zinder households are heavily dependent on agriculture as their primary means of survival, but also depend on livestock and petty commerce. Many migrate during the dry season to work. Dietary diversity in Central Zinder is reasonably good compared to other zones and malnutrition rates among children under 5 are somewhat elevated. The region has not been affected significantly by insecurity, but crop and animal diseases, dust storms and diminishing water table pose the biggest threats. Access to improved sanitation and access to drinking water access are extremely poor for most households. Based on information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population facing varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 96. Final convergence Central Zinder Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 10-20% 10-20% 15-25% 45-55% Food consumption - Quality 25-35% 40-50% 20-30% Food consumption - Quantity 40-50% 30-40% 15-25% Nutrition 40-50% 30%-40 15-25%

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 93 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Overall convergence 25-35% 15-25% 25-35% 15-25% Population affected 377,019 251,346 377,019 251,346 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Central Zinder to improve their food security status, including: • Crop production varies year to year due to increasingly unreliable rainfall • Households face hazards such as drought, crop and animal disease, decreasing water table and dust storms • Only 5 percent of the population have access to potable water

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Central Zinder is classified with severe chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 4. These results suggest that 49 percent of households have seasonal deficits for four months or more during the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have severely stunted children. This population depends heavily on agriculture, livestock, and petty commerce but climate change and desertification make their viability a challenge. This impacts livelihoods all households and many must migrate seasonally as a means of resilience. Access to water is a major challenge and exacerbated by the depletion of the water table.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 94 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

24: Southern Zinder - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum dominant zone Departments: Dungass, Magaria, Kantche, Mirriah, Takeita Southern Zinder borders Nigeria and includes the Figure 28. Zone 24 Reference Map departments of Dungass, Magaria, Kantche, Mirriah, and Takeita in the Rainfed Millet and Sorghum Belt (NE-05) belt. It is the most densely populated part of Niger with 2,625,311 people (INS. 2012). There is much variation in terms of precipitation, soil fertility and harvest across this zone with a range of 400 mm of rain in the north and 600 mm in the south. Millet is the most dominant crop and it can be grown in sandy soils where rainfall is more limited. The southern zone is known for producing rainfed cereals, especially sorghum, where rainfall and soil conditions are more favorable. Cowpea is also an important cash crop which provides revenues for the household as it is generally sold to neighboring Nigeria. Other important crops include groundnut, sesame and peppers. Crop residues are often Source: FEWS NET used to feed livestock. As in other parts of Niger, climate change, variable rainfall and a growing population serve to degrade critical eco-systems and natural resources. Given this, many households must diversity their livelihoods such as agropastoralism, rain-fed crop production, irrigated crop production of sugar cane in Matameye and vegetables especially in Mirriah near Zinder which offers a ready market. The exodus of women and young girls in the Matameye zone due to the lack of available land is a pronounced phenomenon that is forcing many to seek humanitarian aid to survive. The rainy season is between May and September and irrigated crops are grown between October and March. Harvests begin in September. Food prices reach their peak in during the lean season (June-August) when households stocks are depleted. Demand for labor is keen throughout the year but reaches its peak in the last quarter of the year. Poor households comprise 25 percent of the population while 33 percent can be considered very poor. The poorest households work as laborers, farm 1–2 ha and have small ruminants. They tend to migrate for work but also sell firewood, forage and groundnuts. The poorest depend on their own production of millet and sorghum, but also buy from the market or barter. The main shocks that households face in Southern Zinder include erratic rainfall, drought and crop disease. Food security parameters in Southern Zinder Food consumption quality In order to assess food consumption quality specific to Southern Zinder, the analysis team reviewed available information on outcomes and contributing factors, including CEMDD (6–23 months) collected for the NCA (2015) and by the Niger Government (2015). Indirect evidence related to dietary diversity and minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months from the 2012 DHS and USAID DDL 2013 reports. The only piece of direct evidence on dietary quality was CEMDD from the DHS which indicated that 20 percent of children eat a minimum dietary diversity. Similar indirect evidence for minimum acceptable diet in children 6–24 months told a similar story whereby 33 percent of children have a minimum acceptable diet. Though significant indirect evidence was available, its reliability was ostensibly downgraded in confidence since this indicator relates to a small portion of the population and the collected data was for the entire Zinder Region rather than solely Zone 24. Overall, the analysis suggested that, for the food consumption (quality) domain, 20 percent of households were in Level 1, 30 percent in Level 2, and 50 percent in Levels 3 and 4. Direct evidence from underlying/causal factors that about 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food and less than 0–10 percent of households have less resilient means of income such as casual labor and sale of firewood.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 95 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Table 97. Key Indicators of dietary quality in Southern Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

2015 NCA 2 20% 80% Children eating minimum dietary diversity DIRECT

EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 27% 73%

Minimum Acceptable Diet (6-

2012 DHS 1 33% 67% 24 mos)

2012 DHS 1 4% 96% Child dietary diversity (6-24 mos) 2013 DDL 1 4% 96%

INDIRECT EVIDENCE INDIRECT Children consume fruits, veg, 2012 DHS 1 12% 88% meat & dairy Conclusion 20% 30% 50% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Food consumption quantity The analysis team reviewed indicators pertinent to the quantity of food consumption in Southern Zinder drawn from various direct evidence collected between 2008 and 2017. Direct evidence included FCS, HDDS, HHS, and HEA Survival Deficit collected by the Niger Government, USAID, DDL, FEWS NET, NCA, and WFP between 2008 and 2016 (Table 97). Indirect evidence included information on rCSI and number of meals consumed by household member per day collected by WFP. Reliable, direct evidence from FCS data (2008–2017) suggests that 15–25 percent of households face food quantity deficits equivalent to Severe Chronic Food insecurity (Level 4). This magnitude of Level 4 food insecurity is consistent with levels suggested by reliable evidence of HEA Survival Deficit and indirect evidence related to rCSI, the number of meals eaten per day for this category (one meal). However, the figure is inconsistent with reliable HDDS data from 2015 that shows 25–35 percent of households have poor dietary diversity equivalent to a Level 4 classification. Based on an assessment of these various data, 10–20 percent of households in Southern Zinder were classified as Level 4 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. Similar direct, reliable evidence was used to estimate the proportion of households in Level 3. FCS collected by the Niger Government and WFP suggest 25–35 percent of households in Level 3 and had worsened between 2008 and 2017. Data on HDDS was also available and showed that 35–45 percent of households had an HDDS between 5 and 7. Based on an assessment of these various data, 25 percent of households in Southern Zinder were classified as Level 3 for the food consumption (quantity) domain. The remaining 45–55 percent of households were classified as Level 1 or 2. Inferences from indirect evidence suggest that most income here is earned from crop production, livestock and petty commerce, though 0–10 percent engage in precarious livelihoods such as casual labor and sale of firewood. Population density is perhaps one of the biggest challenges in this zone. As a result, limited farm land is available and plot sizes are much smaller than other areas. Direct evidence suggests that dietary diversity could be improved, but reasonably good compared to other zones. Other data indicates that 75–85 percent of households spend over 70 percent of their income on food. Table 98. Key Indicators of dietary quantity in Southern Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2008 WFP FSA 2 64% 28% 9%

2010 WFP FSA 1 52% 28% 21% 2011 WFP FSA 2 48% 38% 14% Food 2013 WFP FSA 2 48% 27% 25% Consumption 2015 WFP FSA 2 46% 29% 25% Score (FCS) 2015 WFP FSA 2 62% 25% 13% 2015 NCA 2 58% 27% 16% DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 Niger Gov 2 54% 27% 19% 2016 Niger Gov 2 32% 32% 34% Famine Early Warning Systems Network 96 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2017 EVIAM 2 55% 27% 18% 2017 Niger Gov 2 34% 33% 33% 2013 USAID DDL 1 23% 36% 41% 2015 EVIAM 2 37% 39% 24% Household 2015 Niger Gov 2 32% 47% 21% Dietary Diversity 2016 Niger Gov 2 23% 39% 38% 2017 EVIAM 2 32% 37% 30% 2017 Niger Gov 2 10% 33% 56% Household 2013 USAID DDL 1 80% 0% 20% Hunger Score HEA Survival 2013 FEWSNET 2 100% 0% Deficit 2013 WFP 2 29% (rCSI <5) 65% (rCSI : 5-20 ) 6% (rCSI : >20 ) Reduced Coping

2015 WFP 2 67% (rCSI <5) 29% (rCSI: 5-20) 4% (rCSI : >20 ) Strategy Index 2016 WFP 2 56% (rCSI <5) 40% (rCSI : >20 ) 4% (rCSI : >20 ) 2011 WFP 2 81% >3 meals/day 18% 2 meals/day 1% 1 meal/day

INDIRECT INDIRECT Number of meals 2013 WFP 2 75% >3 meals/day 22% 2 meals/day 3% 1 meal/day EVIDENCE per day 2015 WFP 2 73% >3 meals/day 25% 2 meals/day 2% 1 meal/day 2016 WFP 2 80% >3 meals/day 17% 2 meals/day 3% 1 meal/day Conclusion 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Note: Highlights indicate an exceptional year.

Nutrition The analysis team reviewed a variety of direct evidence data available on stunting collected between 2010 and 2017. Indirect evidence was absent. The high prevalence of chronic malnutrition remains a serious risk to the health, growth, and development of children in Southern Zinder. The data reveals moderate prevalence moderate and severe stunting rates between 20–30 percent and 20–30 percent, respectively (see below). The evidence on nutritional status from this indicator suggests the following range of households in each Chronic Food Insecurity level: Table 99. Key Indicators of nutrition in Southern Zinder Indicator Year Source Reliability Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 2010 SMART 1 38% 33% 29% 2010 SMART 1 44% 26% 30% 2011 SMART 1 35% 35% 30% 2012 SMART 1 51% 27% 22% 2013 36.1? 1 52% 28% 20% Stunting among 2013 INS 3 51% 27% 22% Children (6–59 Niger Govt months) 2014 1 52% 27% 22% Nutrition Study

DIRECT EVIDENCE 2015 NCA 2 31% 31% 38% 2015 NCA 3 27% 32% 41% 2015 INS 2 45% 26% 29% 2017 EDSN 1 60% 27% 13% Conclusion 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% Recent data on stunting rates that have a higher reliability reveal some of the highest stunting rates in Niger. Most households have access to potable water, while roughly a quarter have access to improved sanitation Overall findings In Southern Ziner, households are heavily dependent on crop production, livestock and petty commerce as their primary means of survival, but high population density to limited availability of land. Many are migrating during the dry season to work. Dietary diversity in Southern Zinder is reasonably good however malnutrition rates among children 6–59 months are some of the highest in Niger. FCS have remained relatively stable since 2008 apart some spikes in certain years. The region has not been affected significantly by insecurity, but drought, crop, and animal diseases pose the biggest threats. Based on

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 97 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019 information for the three food security outcomes above, the convergence of data from these elements suggest the following percentage of the population facing varying levels of chronic food insecurity: Table 100. Final convergence Southern Zinder Component Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Contributing/underlying factors 20% 50% 20% 10% Food consumption - Quality 20% 30% 50% Food consumption - Quantity 45-55% 30-40% 10-20% Nutrition 45-55% 20-30% 20-30% Overall convergence 20-30% 30-40% 20-30% 10-20% Population affected 656,328 918,859 656,328 393,797 Underlying and limiting factors A number of underlying and limiting factors compromise the ability of vulnerable households in Southern Zinder to improve their food security status, including: • Lack of available farm and pasture land due to high population density • Stunting rates among young children are some of the highest in Niger • Households face hazards such as drought, animal disease and bush fire

Key conclusions and justification According to a convergence of data and underlying factors analyzed, Southern Zinder is classified with moderate chronic food insecurity - IPC Level 3. These results suggest that 29 percent of households have seasonal deficits 2–4 months of the year, do not consistently consume a quality diet and likely have moderately stunted children. This population depends heavily on agriculture, livestock and petty commerce as primary livelihoods but farm and pasture land are limited due to high population density. This impacts livelihoods and many households must diversity livelihoods and migrate seasonally as a means of resilience. Stunting rates among children are some of the highest in Niger.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 98 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Annex 1. Participant List Niamey, Niger May 1 – 15, 2018 Name Organization Position Dandakoye Illiassou ACF Livelihood and food security coordinator Chekaraou Idi CC/SAP Chef DS/RA Dr Mahaman Bachir Adamou CC/SAP Chef de division alerte Hassimou Issa CC/SAP Chef Division enquête et base de données Amadou Djibo Hamani CCA Chef de division nutrition Hamadou Seybou CCA Chef département suivi évaluation Houssou Ector CILSS/SE Expert sécurité alimentaire Baoua Issoufou CILSS/CRA Expert Cadre Harmonise Williams Massaoud CILSS/CRA Expert Idrissa Abdou CSRSD/TI Direction Régionale Maman Brah Souleymane DDP/MAG/EL Services de suivi et gestion des ressources pastorales Bizo Briguiza DGA GTI Agriculture Nazirou Touné DMN/météo GTI Météorologie Nouhou M. Badje DN/MSP GTI Nutrition Moustapha Moumouni DRA Maradi Chef services statistiques de l’agriculture Mme Halidou Dije Magagi DRA/Dosso Chef services statistiques de l’agriculture Issaka Garba DRA/Niamey Chef services statistiques de l’agriculture Adam Djibo DRA/Zinder Chef services statistiques de l’agriculture Ibrahima Assoumane DRA/Diffa Chef services statistiques de l’agriculture Mme Moctar Salamatou DREL/Agadez Direction régionale de l’élevage Souleymane Dirkouma DREL/Diffa Chef services statistiques de l’agriculture Idrissa Allassane DREL/Tahoua Directeur Régional de l’élevage Aliou Moumouni DS/MAG/EL Chef de division Mme Ibrahim Marietou DS/MSP Base de données sante Moussa Garba FAO Expert agronome Abdou K. Ouedraogo FEWS NET Regional Food Security Specialist Bernadin Zoungrana FEWS NET Regional Food Security Specialist Emmet Murphy FEWS NET Food Security Consultant Gabriela juarez FEWS NET Assistant National Technical Manager Laouali Ibrahim FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager Margaret van Wassenaer FEWS NET Food Security Analyst Moussa Moctar FEWS NET Regional Food Security Specialist Peter Thomas FEWS NET Decision Support Advisor Yacouba Hama Abdou FEWS NET National Technical Manager Ibrahima ADAMOU GTI/DS/MSP Chef de division des statistiques de la sante Mado Diakite HC3N Assistante Technique Abba Koura Chégou HC3N Stagiaire Moumouni Alzouma INS Cadre de l’Institut National de la Statistique José Manuel Veiga Lopez-Pena IPC GSU MAINASSARA Zoubeirou MAG/EL Suivi et évaluation Boubacar Hamidou OXFAM Livelihoods et sécurité alimentaire

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 99 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

Name Organization Position Hassane Harouna OXFAM Livelihoods et sécurité alimentaire Issoufou Boubacar Abdourahmane CR/PGCA Agadez Volontaire des Nations Unies Adamou Nafoga SAP Chef département Informatique Oumarou Amadou SAP Chef département Alerte Mme Boubacar Zalia Yacouba SE/CNEDD Mme Ibrahim Alhoussouna SIM/Bétail Chef de division information Lamine Mahamane Yaou SIMA Assistant analyste marches et sécurité alimentaire Mme Ousseini Rakia SP/DNPGCA Suivi et Evaluation Amadou Zaqueye Oumarou CR/PGCA Dosso Secrétaire Permanent Régional de Dosso Ide Harouna CR/PGCA Niamey Secrétaire Permanent Régional de Niamey Issoufou Oumarou CR/PGCA Tillabéry Secrétaire Permanent Régional de Tillabéry Mani Issoufou CR/PGCA Maradi Secrétaire Permanent Régional de Maradi Issa Arzika CR/PGCA Tahoua Secrétaire Permanent Régional de Tahoua Saidou Abdou Ali CR/PGCA Zinder Secrétaire Permanent Régional de Zinder Lawan Tahirou WFP VAM Officer Ali Zakou Djibo SIMB Chef service gestion base de données Ministère du Développement MAINASSARA Amadou Chargé de Programme Communautaire Labo Seyni Save the Children Point Focal HEA Direction des statistiques de Salissou Malam Alassane Chef de services suivi. l’agriculture

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 100 Assessment of Chronic Food Insecurity in Niger 2019

References Secondary Data Used for Chronic Food Insecurity Analysis Title Source Date Etude National d'Evaluation d'Indicateurrs Socio- Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Feb. 2016 Economiques et Demographiques (ENISED) des Finances Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Enquete Conjoint Sur la Vulnerabilite a Dec 2008 - Jan des Finances; Systeme d'Alete Precoce Cabinet du Premier l'Insecurite des Menages au Niger 2009 Ministre Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Enquete Conjoint Sur la Vulnerabilite a des Finances; Systeme d'Alete Precoce Cabinet du Premier Apr-10 l'Insecurite des Menages au Niger Ministre Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Enquete Conjoint Sur la Vulnerabilite a des Finances; Systeme d'Alete Precoce Cabinet du Premier Nov-11 l'Insecurite des Menages au Niger Ministre Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Enquete Conjoint Sur la Vulnerabilite a des Finances; Systeme d'Alete Precoce Cabinet du Premier Mar-14 l'Insecurite des Menages au Niger Ministre Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Enquete Conjoint Sur la Vulnerabilite a Dec 2015 - Jan des Finances; Systeme d'Alete Precoce Cabinet du Premier l'Insecurite des Menages au Niger 2016 Ministre Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Enquete Conjoint Sur la Vulnerabilite a des Finances; Systeme d'Alete Precoce Cabinet du Premier Nov-13 l'Insecurite des Menages au Niger Ministre Donnes de productions agricoles Ministère de L'Agriculture et de l'élévage de Niger 2003-2016 Sites Sentinelles (Assistance, Cereales, HDDS, MUAC, Actifs, FCS, Stocks, Strategies, House size, WFP 2015 - 2017 etc.) Profil et Determinants de la Pauvrete au Niger en Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et 2011 2011 des Finances Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Rapport d'enquete nationale nutrition June-July 2014 des Finances Evaluation nationale de la situation nutritionelle UNICEF, WFP Nov-16 par la methodologies SMART au Niger Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Rapport d'enquete nationale nutrition May - June 2013 des Finances Rapport d'enquete nationale nutrition et survie Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et June - July 2008 de l'enfant des Finances Rapport d'enquete nationale nutrition et survie Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Nov-09 de l'enfant des Finances Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Rapport d'enquete nationale nutrition May - June 2010 des Finances Institut National de la Statistique Ministere de l'Economie et Rapport d'enquete nationale nutrition May - June 2011 des Finances Nutrition Causal Analysis in Niger FEWS NET March 2017 HEA Baselines FEWS NET 2012 Access to Health Services Zinder and Maradi USAID DDL Agircultural Practices Zinder and Maradi USAID DDL Child Health Data Zinder and Maradi USAID DDL Food Consumption Data Zinder and Maradi USAID DDL Household description data Zinder and Maradi USAID DDL Mothers pregnancy data Zinder and Maradi USAID DDL Sanitation and Maternal Health data Zinder and USAID DDL Maradi Niger Healthsites Global Healthsites Mapping Project Mar-18

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