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NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring January 11, 2010

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NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring January 11, 2010 NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring January 11, 2010 Objective of this monitoring: Between December 2009 and March 2010, to more regularly monitor key features of Niger’s current and near‐future food security to inform decision‐making related to external assistance. Off‐season and flood recession agriculture • Dams and depressions normally used for off‐season cropping were generally not well filled compared to normal, which resulted in the abandonment of several irrigation sites. Approximately 1,745 hectares are projected to be cultivated in vegetable crops, benefitting 60,800 producers in 544 sites, including 71 sites developed with support from FAO. The area planted is down between 5‐10 percent compared to normal due early depletion of ponds. The area planted is down as much as 30 percent from average in Goroubéri (Commune 1 of Niamey), Tchia, Kagari, Boubout (Mirriah), Tam (Mainé Soroa), and Bosso (Diffa). Two or three vegetable harvests are possible in a normal year, but this year water will be scarce as of February, thereby reducing the production cycle and number of potential harvests. • The winter irrigated rice harvest has just finished and is near 2008 levels. The 2010 dry season is being transplanted, and the Federation of Unions of Rice‐Producer Cooperatives (FUCOPRI) plans to put 3,000 tons of fertilizers at its disposition. However, the encroachment of sand is likely to reduce production. • {No change from previous report} Prices for vegetable products are also above their levels of last year with possible positive effects on vegetable to cereal terms of trade. For example, in Mirriah (Zinder) the price of tomatoes was 100 FCFA/kg in December 2008, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 59 kg of millet. In December 2009, the price of tomatoes was 200 FCFA/kg, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 95 kg of millet. If off‐season production in Mirriah falls by more than 40 percent below normal, however, these improved terms of trade will not result in improved purchasing power. Good terms of trade are also not likely to be sufficient to meet the food gap in most areas. • On the other hand, the price of pepper, a cash crop on which approximately half of the households in Diffa depend, is less than half of last year’s price. Pepper‐to‐millet terms of trade are similarly low compared to normal. The low value is primarily due to reduced demand as a result of the low value of the Naira. • Some youth are starting petty trade in forest products such as gum arabic and jujube. The intensification of harvesting these wild foods has increased the market supply and decreased prices relative to last year. Pastoral conditions • The pastoral situation is characterized by a drying up of ponds and depletion of grazing in many pastoral and agropastoral areas of Diffa, Zinder, Tahoua, and Tillaberi, Dakoro (Maradi). Animal feed is not yet available from traders, NGOs, or international organizations in these zones. In most of the pastoral zone, the available forage will not last beyond February. Grazing is nonexistent in the north of Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, Abalak, Tchintabaraden, and N’Guigmi departments, and animal body conditions there will be critically poor by the end of January. • The animal‐to‐millet terms of trade in December were below last year’s high levels (40 percent lower for bulls and 44 percent lower for male sheep on the Dakoro market). As the current situation progresses, animal body conditions are expected to become critically poor in March/April in the northern parts of Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, Tanout, and N’Guigmi departments, resulting in widespread destocking at low prices and abnormal animal mortality. • The pastoral and agropastoral households Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, and N’Guigmi face extreme forage deficits. Some households have left their lands in search of grazing in the far north where the forage is relatively average. The exhaustion of northern pastures between February and April will force the animals to move to dry season pastures in the south. To get there, they must cross several hundred kilometers completely devoid of pasture, which could result in massive deaths of livestock. FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Niamey 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring January 11, 2009 Labor • {No change from previous report} Following the poor agricultural production in agricultural villages of the agro‐ pastoral and pastoral belts in eastern Niger, a number of households left their villages of origin—mostly from Diffa, Tanout and Mirriah (the millet belt of Zinder region), and Gouré—in October for urban centers and flood‐recessional cropping areas in search of labor opportunities. There is an unusually high presence of migrant workers – particularly women and young girls and boys – in urban centers. Demand for labor is normal, but there is an excess supply. These women and young people come for domestic work for which salaries range normally from 5,000 to 7,500 FCFA (plus food), depending on the amount of work and experience. The current monthly salaries have dropped and now range from 2,500 to 7,000 FCFA (plus food). The daily wage for men is also declining from a stable 1000 FCFA per day in from 2008 through September 2009 to as low as 750 per day in December 2009. Food Prices and Terms of Trade • Markets are well supplied, and prices for sorghum, imported rice, and maize, though slightly above the nominal five‐ year average, were stable between November and December. Prices for millet, however, remain above the nominal five‐year average and are rising abnormally for the post‐harvest period. Retail millet prices rose four percent in Diffa, nine percent in Mayahi, and 12 percent in N’guigmi between November and December 2009. • Along the river in Tillaberi and Dosso, the price of rice paddy is slightly lower this year than last due to poor demand, and some stock remains unsold in the cooperative warehouses. The Office of Food Products that normally purchases rice has not yet proposed to do so, and demand from Nigeria is low due to the low value of the Naira. • In December, the supply on livestock markets nationally was more than 20 percent above the same period in 2008 and demand was lower due to the low value of the Nigerian Naira. As a result, prices for animals are lower than last year. The lowest animal prices compared to the same period of 2008 are those of cows, bulls, sheep, and goats on the pastoral markets. • Large increases in the supply of small animals on the market similar to those normally observed only during the June‐ August agro‐pastoral hunger season show that households took advantage of both local and national holidays in December to destock. In N’Guigmi, though the supply in December was five times last year’s levels, small animal to cereal terms of trade did not fall critically. Similarly, in Dakoro and Tanout, the supply in December was twice that of last year. Regional food availability, import expectations • {No change from previous report} Currently, the Niger markets are well supplied from neighboring countries including Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo. In December 2009, prices of millet and maize are higher on the Nigerien market than on the border markets of Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, which favors the import of these cereals. The exchange rate of the Naira against the CFA also encourages imports. • {No change from previous report} No abnormal official or unofficial government action impedes the flow of grain between the countries. However, given the drop in millet production regionally, neighboring countries may restrict the outflow of cereals to secure national consumption needs. Health and Nutrition • Total admissions of malnourished children into recuperation centers increased by 9 percent between November and December 2009. However, admissions in Tanout and Mayahi doubled. Admissions increased by more than 70 percent in Diffa and Abalak and by 40 percent in Gouré. Though food insecurity is the most likely driver of these increases, between November and December 2009, significant increases in cases of measles and meningitis were also reported and may be contributing slightly to malnutrition admissions locally. • {No change from previous report} In 2009 the Government of Niger implemented new WHO screening standards for malnutrition. The academic literature has not found the new WHO standards to have a very significant impact on rates of global acute malnutrition. Also the increase in malnutrition is unlikely to be caused by poor health conditions. Though malaria rates are slightly higher this year than last, the incidence of current both meningitis and measles are far below last year’s levels, and the areas of higher incidence of disease do not correspond with those with higher incidence of malnutrition. • {No change from previous report} In June 2009, however, the government reinstated feeding programs that had ceased in most areas in mid‐2008. A significant increase in caseloads was observed immediately in centers where this change occurred. A proportion of the increased caseload can therefore be attributed to the changes in the feeding programs. However, the areas experiencing the greatest increases in caseloads between December 2008 and Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Enhanced Food Security Monitoring January 11, 2009 December 2009 are also among those most affected by the poor agricultural season, indicating that food insecurity is contributing significantly to a below‐normal nutritional status of the population.
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