NIGER Food Security Update January 2010

• Following a late start and early cessation of Figure 1. Current estimate of food security conditions, January 2010 rainfall, the 2009 agricultural season performed poorly overall. Harvests in some agricultural villages in the agro‐pastoral and pastoral zones of the departments of , Tanout and (the millet belt of region), and Gouré harvested very little this year. Among these villages, a number of households left their homes in October for urban centers and areas of recessional cropping in search of daily labor. The additional labor supply caused a decline in the daily wage of the urban workforce. Above‐normal food assistance is needed to address food insecurity in both areas of departure and areas of destination.

• In Zinder and Diffa, wide swaths of

rangelands were bare in December, when Source: FEWS NET they are normally good, in spite of the early departure of transhumant pastoralists. As a result, many pastoralists are concentrated with their herds in pastures to the north. Local livestock specialists are concerned that overgrazing will destroy these pastures as early as February/March, forcing pastoralists to migrate across 150‐200 km of bare pastureland to reach southern pastures in agricultural zones of southern and northern Nigeria. Pastoralists in the northeast will need assistance to avoid high animal mortality.

Seasonal calendar

Animals Off‐season Animals Hunger season move rice move south Dry season North harvest Rainy season Main harvest: rain‐fed cereals, Flood‐recession and gardening winter irrigated rice harvest Land preparation Weeding, hoeing, ploughing

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Rebuilding cereal banks Food aid and sales at Oct‐09 subsidized prices Oct‐10 Source : FEWS NET

Off‐season and flood recession agriculture • Dams and depressions normally used for off‐season cropping were generally not well filled compared to normal, which resulted in the abandonment of several irrigation sites. Approximately 1,745 hectares are projected to be cultivated in vegetable crops, benefitting 60,800 producers in 544 sites, including 71 sites developed with support

FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

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NIGER Food Security Update January 2010

from FAO. The area planted is down between 5‐10 percent compared to normal due early depletion of ponds. The area planted is down as much as 30 percent from average in Goroubéri (Commune 1 of Niamey), Tchia, Kagari, Boubout (Mirriah), Tam (Mainé Soroa), and Bosso (Diffa). Two or three vegetable harvests are possible in a normal year, but this year water will be scarce as of February, thereby reducing the production cycle and number of potential harvests. • The winter irrigated rice harvest has just finished and is near 2008 levels. The 2010 dry season is being transplanted, and the Federation of Unions of Rice‐Producer Cooperatives (FUCOPRI) plans to put 3,000 tons of fertilizers at its disposition. However, the encroachment of sand is likely to reduce production. • Prices for vegetable products are also above their levels of last year with possible positive effects on vegetable to cereal terms of trade. For example, in Mirriah (Zinder) the price of tomatoes was 100 FCFA/kg in December 2008, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 59 kg of millet. In December 2009, the price of tomatoes was 200 FCFA/kg, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 95 kg of millet. If off‐season production in Mirriah falls by more than 40 percent below normal, however, these improved terms of trade will not result in improved purchasing power. Good terms of trade are also not likely to be sufficient to meet the food gap in most areas. • On the other hand, the price of pepper, a cash crop on which approximately half of the households in Diffa depend, is less than half of last year’s price. Pepper‐to‐millet terms of trade are similarly low compared to normal. The low value is primarily due to reduced demand following the deterioration of the Naira. • Some youth are starting petty trade in forest products such as gum arabic and jujube. The intensification of harvesting these wild foods has increased the market supply and decreased prices relative to last year. • The harvest and sale of off‐season vegetables have begun for lettuce, tomato, cabbage, and onion. Tubers (sweet potato and manioc) are not yet ready to harvest. Imported tubers from Nigeria are abundant on the markets and help to diversify household diets.

Pastoral conditions • The pastoral situation is characterized by a drying up of ponds and depletion of grazing in many pastoral and agro‐ pastoral areas of Diffa, Zinder, , and Tillaberi, (Maradi). Animal feed is not yet available from traders, NGOs, or international organizations in these zones. In most of the pastoral zone, the available forage will not last beyond February. Grazing is nonexistent in the north of Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, , , and N’Guigmi departments, and animal body conditions there will be critically poor by the end of January. • The sedentary and transhumant pastoral and agro‐pastoral households Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, and N’Guigmi face extreme forage deficits. Some households have left their lands in search of grazing in the far north where the forage is relatively average. Though southern pastures are truly better in quality than those in the north, many pastoralists prefer the northern pastures when they expect the pastures to last until the next rains because they are less at risk of harassment and of theft. Southern pastures are also not “freed” from agricultural use (off‐season and flood recession agriculture) until between February‐April. Also, normally this livestock movement would be transhumant, meaning 1‐2 men would take the herds north while the rest of the family and a few milking animals would remain on the homestead. This year, because pastures in the areas of origin are too poor to support homesteads, the migration was nomadic, with the entire family, including milking animals, moving northward. • So many pastoralists brought so many animals north, however, that technicians in the area say that the carrying capacity will be insufficient to last beyond February/March, and a normal installation of rains will not generate new pastures before June/July. Current reports indicate that as pastures are degraded further south, pastoralists move further north, closer to the desert, increasing the span of barren land between dwindling northern pastures and the southern agricultural residues. As a result, pastoralists in these northern pastures are highly vulnerable to food and livelihoods insecurity. They are 200 kilometers from both good pastures (southern agricultural residues) with which to feed their animals and markets on which to sell their animals to avoid large‐scale losses of assets and to purchase food.

Labor • Following the poor agricultural production in agricultural villages of the agro pastoral and pastoral belts in eastern Niger, many households left their villages of origin—mostly from Diffa, Tanout and Mirriah (the millet belt of ), and Gouré—in October for urban centers and flood‐recessional cropping areas in search of labor opportunities. There is an unusually high presence of migrant workers – particularly women and young girls and boys – in urban centers. Demand for labor is normal, but there is an excess supply. These women and young people come for domestic work for which salaries range normally from 5,000 to 7,500 FCFA (plus food), depending on the amount

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NIGER Food Security Update January 2010

of work and experience. The current monthly salaries have dropped and now range from 2,500 to 7,000 FCFA (plus food). The daily wage for men is also declining from a stable 1000 FCFA per day in from 2008 through September 2009 to as low as 750 per day in December 2009. • In the agro‐pastoral zone of Dakoro, reduced food availability has prompted households to develop unusual coping strategies. Women have begun selling water on market days earning between 1000‐1500 FCFA. This is worth approximately three and a half to six kilograms of millet. Men tend to harvest hay, which is worth 200 FCFA/bundle on rural markets compared to 1000 FCFA/bundle on urban markets.

Food Prices and Terms of Trade • Markets are well supplied, and prices for sorghum, imported rice, and maize, though slightly above the nominal five‐ year average, were stable between November and December. Prices for millet, however, remain above the nominal five‐year average and are rising abnormally for the post‐harvest period. Retail millet prices rose four percent in Diffa, nine percent in , and 12 percent in N’Guigmi between November and December 2009. • Along the river in Tillabéri and Dosso, the price of rice paddy is slightly lower this year than last due to poor demand, and some stock remains unsold in the cooperative warehouses. The Office of Food Products that normally purchases rice has not yet proposed to do so, and demand from Nigeria is low due to the low value of the Naira. • In December, the supply on livestock markets nationally was more than 20 percent above the same period in 2008 and demand was lower due to the low value of the Nigerian Naira. As a result, prices for animals are lower than last year. The lowest animal prices compared to the same period of 2008 are those of cows, bulls, sheep, and goats on the pastoral markets. • Large increases in the supply of small animals on the market similar to those normally observed only during the June‐ August agro‐pastoral hunger season show that households took advantage of both local and national holidays in December to destock. The destocking is not related to a crisis ‐ animals are still in acceptable condition, ‐ but rather a rational destocking in anticipation of the upcoming challenges they will face feeding the animals. Money earned from livestock sales is being used to rebuild grain stores, stock forage for remaining animals, and meet essential social obligations. The exceptionally low cash crop production in 2009 is one of the main drivers of households to intensify the sale of animals as a source of income. • In N’Guigmi, though the supply of goats in December was twice last year’s levels, male goat to millet terms of trade were slightly higher than last year. Again, Figure 2. Male goat-to-millet terms of trade in Tanout, Niger. the difference between Dec 2008 and Dec 2009 is particularly stark because the good rain‐fed cereal and particularly cash crop harvests of 2008 left few people needing to sell animals and many wanting to buy them as vehicles for savings. In 2009 the situation is the reverse. In Dakoro and Tanout, the supply of goats in December was between two and three times that of last year. Livestock‐to‐millet terms of trade on the Dakoro market in December were below last year’s high levels (down 38 percent for bulls, 43 percent for male sheep, and 55 percent for male goats). In Tanout male goat to millet terms of trade were 19 percent Source: FEWS NET below last year, or 26 percent below normal (Figure 2). • As the current situation progresses, animal body conditions are expected to become critically poor in March/April in the northern parts of Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, Tanout, and N’Guigmi departments, resulting in widespread destocking at low prices and abnormal animal mortality.

Regional food availability, import expectations • Currently, the Niger markets are well supplied from neighboring countries including Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Togo. In December 2009, prices of millet and maize are higher on the Nigerien market than on the border

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NIGER Food Security Update January 2010

markets of Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, which favors the import of these cereals. The exchange rate of the Naira against the CFA also encourages imports. In a normal year, about 90 percent of the grains marketed in December are produced in Niger. In December 2009, more than 80 percent of the grains marketed in Niger were imported. • No abnormal official or unofficial government action impedes the flow of grain between the countries. However, given the drop in millet production regionally, neighboring countries may restrict the outflow of cereals to secure national consumption needs.

Health and Nutrition • Total admissions of malnourished children into recuperation centers increased by 9 percent between November and December 2009. However, admissions in Tanout and Mayahi doubled. Admissions increased by more than 70 percent in Diffa and Abalak and by 40 percent in Gouré. In Tanout, the increase in admissions of malnourished children is related to the consumption of a food of last resort called Ziga, which is known to cause diarrhea in children. In Mayahi, the cause of the increase is not yet clear. • Though food insecurity is the most likely driver of these increases, between November and December 2009, significant increases in cases of measles and meningitis were also reported and may be contributing slightly to malnutrition admissions locally. A significant increase in malnutrition rates in pastoral zones is expected in the near future as milk production slows due to pasture deficits and households move towards pastures further north, away from cereal markets in the southern zones. • In 2009 the Government of Niger implemented new WHO screening standards for malnutrition. The academic literature has not found the new WHO standards to have a very significant impact on rates of global acute malnutrition. Also the increase in malnutrition is unlikely to be caused by poor health conditions. Though malaria rates are slightly higher this year than last, the incidence of current both meningitis and measles are far below last year’s levels, and the areas of higher incidence of disease do not correspond with those with higher incidence of malnutrition. • In June 2009, however, the government reinstated feeding programs that had ceased in most areas in mid‐2008. A significant increase in caseloads was observed immediately in centers where this change occurred. A proportion of the increased caseload can therefore be attributed to the changes in the feeding programs. However, the areas experiencing the greatest increases in caseloads between December 2008 and December 2009 are also among those most affected by the poor agricultural season, indicating that food insecurity is contributing significantly to a below‐ normal nutritional status of the population.

Interventions • The current level of national security stock (SNS) is 21,884 tons, and purchases are underway for an additional 6,000 tons. The goal for the SNS this year is 50,000 tons. In addition, the level of the food security reserve (RAS) is currently 43,074 tons. • The national agency for the prevention and management of food crises is preparing a plan to support vulnerable populations as of February/March, which includes cash for work, sales of grain and animal feed at subsidized prices, food distributions, and nutritional recovery assistance, though no public intervention is yet underway. However, some NGOs such as Save the Children and the Irish Red Cross have launched operations such as cash transfers and distribution of goats in their areas of intervention including , , , and Tanout. • WFP plans to purchase 5,500 tons of cereals for cereal banks, 13,680 for free food distributions, and 6,000 tons for blanket feeding for 2010.

Most likely scenario through September 2010 • Given above‐normal grain prices and very low prices for animals, we will observe moderate‐to‐high food insecurity and increasing rates of malnutrition and disease from January to September 2010 in agro‐pastoral areas and January to July in pastoral areas, where the access to food is poor for households with a reduced capital stock. With a normal installation of the rainy season in May‐June 2010, the return of migrant laborers and their cash and in‐kind resources could improve the situation slightly. July‐September is the hunger season, which will be particularly difficult this year in the pastoral and agro‐pastoral areas of Tanout, , Tillabéri, Mirriah, Gouré, Diffa, Mainé Soroa, N’Guigmi, Filingué, Dakoro, and Mayahi, even if the 2010 rains progress well. • In 2005, approximately 3.8 million people were food insecure in Niger due to a series of agricultural shocks. This year, the multiple shocks to both the agricultural and pastoral sectors indicate that the number of food insecure people in 2010 could exceed that of the 2005 nutritional crisis (even when inflated to account for population growth). For this

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reason, food assistance is needed urgently until at least July in pastoral areas and at least September in agricultural and agro‐pastoral areas.

Key information gaps Potential causes of increased admissions of malnourished children in Mayahi, number of people in migration and income earned in the host country, number of animals in transhumance, volume flow of grain imports, mortality rates (overall, under 5, under 2)

Sources: FAO, Agricultural statistics office of the Ministry of Agricultural Development (DSA/MDA), National Health Information System (SNIS), Agricultural Market Information System (SIMA), Livestock Market Information System (SIMB), Food Crisis Cell, Save the Children, International Relief and Development (IRD), Pastoral Development Office, FEWS NET rapid field assessments, Chamber of commerce, CAPAN, MSF Ireland, World Vision, Karkara, Hellen Keller International, Phytosanitary control post

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ANNEX: Niger Monthly Price Bulletin January 2010

Millet, maize, cowpea (niébé), and imported rice are the most important food commodities. Millet is consumed by both rural and poor urban households throughout the country. Maize and imported rice are most important for urban households, while cowpea is mainly consumed by poor households in rural and urban areas as a protein source. Niamey is the most important national market and an international trade center, and also supplies urban households. Tillaberi is also an urban center that supplies the surrounding area. Gaya market represents a main urban market for maize with cross‐border connections. Maradi, Tounfafi, and Diffa are regional assembly and cross‐border markets for Niger and other countries in the region. These are markets where households and herders coming from the northern cereal deficit areas regularly buy their food. and Zinder are also important national and regional markets. Nguigmi and Abalak are located in pastoral areas, where people are heavily dependent on cereal markets for Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government their food supply. They are particularly important during the agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners. rainy season, when herders are confined to the pastoral zone.

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ANNEX: Niger Monthly Price Bulletin January 2010

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ANNEX: Niger Monthly Price Bulletin January 2010

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