NIGER Food Security Update January 2010 • Following a late start and early cessation of Figure 1. Current estimate of food security conditions, January 2010 rainfall, the 2009 agricultural season performed poorly overall. Harvests in some agricultural villages in the agro‐pastoral and pastoral zones of the departments of Diffa, Tanout and Mirriah (the millet belt of Zinder region), and Gouré harvested very little this year. Among these villages, a number of households left their homes in October for urban centers and areas of recessional cropping in search of daily labor. The additional labor supply caused a decline in the daily wage of the urban workforce. Above‐normal food assistance is needed to address food insecurity in both areas of departure and areas of destination. • In Zinder and Diffa, wide swaths of rangelands were bare in December, when Source: FEWS NET they are normally good, in spite of the early departure of transhumant pastoralists. As a result, many pastoralists are concentrated with their herds in pastures to the north. Local livestock specialists are concerned that overgrazing will destroy these pastures as early as February/March, forcing pastoralists to migrate across 150‐200 km of bare pastureland to reach southern pastures in agricultural zones of southern Niger and northern Nigeria. Pastoralists in the northeast will need assistance to avoid high animal mortality. Seasonal calendar Animals Off‐season Animals Hunger season move rice move south Dry season North harvest Rainy season Main harvest: rain‐fed cereals, Flood‐recession and gardening winter irrigated rice harvest Land preparation Weeding, hoeing, ploughing Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Rebuilding cereal banks Food aid and sales at Oct‐09 Oct‐10 subsidized prices Source : FEWS NET Off‐season and flood recession agriculture • Dams and depressions normally used for off‐season cropping were generally not well filled compared to normal, which resulted in the abandonment of several irrigation sites. Approximately 1,745 hectares are projected to be cultivated in vegetable crops, benefitting 60,800 producers in 544 sites, including 71 sites developed with support FEWS NET Niger FEWS NET Washington Niamey 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 00 227 20 31 71 33 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/niger NIGER Food Security Update January 2010 from FAO. The area planted is down between 5‐10 percent compared to normal due early depletion of ponds. The area planted is down as much as 30 percent from average in Goroubéri (Commune 1 of Niamey), Tchia, Kagari, Boubout (Mirriah), Tam (Mainé Soroa), and Bosso (Diffa). Two or three vegetable harvests are possible in a normal year, but this year water will be scarce as of February, thereby reducing the production cycle and number of potential harvests. • The winter irrigated rice harvest has just finished and is near 2008 levels. The 2010 dry season is being transplanted, and the Federation of Unions of Rice‐Producer Cooperatives (FUCOPRI) plans to put 3,000 tons of fertilizers at its disposition. However, the encroachment of sand is likely to reduce production. • Prices for vegetable products are also above their levels of last year with possible positive effects on vegetable to cereal terms of trade. For example, in Mirriah (Zinder) the price of tomatoes was 100 FCFA/kg in December 2008, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 59 kg of millet. In December 2009, the price of tomatoes was 200 FCFA/kg, and 100 kg of tomatoes could purchase 95 kg of millet. If off‐season production in Mirriah falls by more than 40 percent below normal, however, these improved terms of trade will not result in improved purchasing power. Good terms of trade are also not likely to be sufficient to meet the food gap in most areas. • On the other hand, the price of pepper, a cash crop on which approximately half of the households in Diffa depend, is less than half of last year’s price. Pepper‐to‐millet terms of trade are similarly low compared to normal. The low value is primarily due to reduced demand following the deterioration of the Naira. • Some youth are starting petty trade in forest products such as gum arabic and jujube. The intensification of harvesting these wild foods has increased the market supply and decreased prices relative to last year. • The harvest and sale of off‐season vegetables have begun for lettuce, tomato, cabbage, and onion. Tubers (sweet potato and manioc) are not yet ready to harvest. Imported tubers from Nigeria are abundant on the markets and help to diversify household diets. Pastoral conditions • The pastoral situation is characterized by a drying up of ponds and depletion of grazing in many pastoral and agro‐ pastoral areas of Diffa, Zinder, Tahoua, and Tillaberi, Dakoro (Maradi). Animal feed is not yet available from traders, NGOs, or international organizations in these zones. In most of the pastoral zone, the available forage will not last beyond February. Grazing is nonexistent in the north of Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, Dakoro, Abalak, Tchintabaraden, and N’Guigmi departments, and animal body conditions there will be critically poor by the end of January. • The sedentary and transhumant pastoral and agro‐pastoral households Diffa, Tanout, Maîné Soroa, and N’Guigmi face extreme forage deficits. Some households have left their lands in search of grazing in the far north where the forage is relatively average. Though southern pastures are truly better in quality than those in the north, many pastoralists prefer the northern pastures when they expect the pastures to last until the next rains because they are less at risk of harassment and of theft. Southern pastures are also not “freed” from agricultural use (off‐season and flood recession agriculture) until between February‐April. Also, normally this livestock movement would be transhumant, meaning 1‐2 men would take the herds north while the rest of the family and a few milking animals would remain on the homestead. This year, because pastures in the areas of origin are too poor to support homesteads, the migration was nomadic, with the entire family, including milking animals, moving northward. • So many pastoralists brought so many animals north, however, that technicians in the area say that the carrying capacity will be insufficient to last beyond February/March, and a normal installation of rains will not generate new pastures before June/July. Current reports indicate that as pastures are degraded further south, pastoralists move further north, closer to the desert, increasing the span of barren land between dwindling northern pastures and the southern agricultural residues. As a result, pastoralists in these northern pastures are highly vulnerable to food and livelihoods insecurity. They are 200 kilometers from both good pastures (southern agricultural residues) with which to feed their animals and markets on which to sell their animals to avoid large‐scale losses of assets and to purchase food. Labor • Following the poor agricultural production in agricultural villages of the agro pastoral and pastoral belts in eastern Niger, many households left their villages of origin—mostly from Diffa, Tanout and Mirriah (the millet belt of Zinder region), and Gouré—in October for urban centers and flood‐recessional cropping areas in search of labor opportunities. There is an unusually high presence of migrant workers – particularly women and young girls and boys – in urban centers. Demand for labor is normal, but there is an excess supply. These women and young people come for domestic work for which salaries range normally from 5,000 to 7,500 FCFA (plus food), depending on the amount Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 NIGER Food Security Update January 2010 of work and experience. The current monthly salaries have dropped and now range from 2,500 to 7,000 FCFA (plus food). The daily wage for men is also declining from a stable 1000 FCFA per day in from 2008 through September 2009 to as low as 750 per day in December 2009. • In the agro‐pastoral zone of Dakoro, reduced food availability has prompted households to develop unusual coping strategies. Women have begun selling water on market days earning between 1000‐1500 FCFA. This is worth approximately three and a half to six kilograms of millet. Men tend to harvest hay, which is worth 200 FCFA/bundle on rural markets compared to 1000 FCFA/bundle on urban markets. Food Prices and Terms of Trade • Markets are well supplied, and prices for sorghum, imported rice, and maize, though slightly above the nominal five‐ year average, were stable between November and December. Prices for millet, however, remain above the nominal five‐year average and are rising abnormally for the post‐harvest period. Retail millet prices rose four percent in Diffa, nine percent in Mayahi, and 12 percent in N’Guigmi between November and December 2009. • Along the river in Tillabéri and Dosso, the price of rice paddy is slightly lower this year than last due to poor demand, and some stock remains unsold in the cooperative warehouses. The Office of Food Products that normally purchases rice has not yet proposed to do so, and demand from Nigeria is low due to the low value of the Naira. • In December, the supply on livestock markets nationally was more than 20 percent above the same period in 2008 and demand was lower due to the low value of the Nigerian Naira. As a result, prices for animals are lower than last year. The lowest animal prices compared to the same period of 2008 are those of cows, bulls, sheep, and goats on the pastoral markets.