2015

Strategic foresight retreat

10 to 14 August 2015 Hartwell House 2015

Welcome to SOIF 2015!

It is with enormous pleasure that we welcome you to SOIF’s fourth annual retreat on Strategic foresight. In the summer of 2012 we launched the School of International Futures with our first retreat at Wilton Park. We were immediately encouraged by the number of people ready to sign up to a week-long retreat on strategic foresight, in the middle of their summer holidays. Particularly gratifying was the range of nationalities and backgrounds of those who joined us, and the attitude of those who came: wanting to learn and discuss foresight not simply as a theory or discipline, but as a way of understanding and changing the future. The attitude and expectations of our participants have shaped SOIF into an organisation dedicated to teaching and promoting foresight as a practical discipline for policy and planning but also one that transforms the world we live in, and helps us make better decisions today, for a better future. We try to do three things: make you better users and commissioners of foresight; send you back to your job after your time with us ready to build future-ready organisations; and encourage you to learn from each other and support each other as a foresight community. The process, methodology and techniques we’ll introduce at SOIF2015 – with the help of our visiting faculty – are ones we have found achieve results in a range of different organisations. But strategic foresight is an art as well as a science; we will ask you to draw on both as you grapple during guided sessions with the Live challenge brought by our policy client, the European External Action Service (EEAS). We hope you enjoy the next few days! We’ve tried to leave time in the programme for walks in the grounds, chats on the sofa, tennis, swimming, even early-morning yoga… but we hope the learning and debate too will be enjoyable, as well as fruitful for your future plans. Thank you for coming to SOIF2015 with an open mind, and heart – we hope the relationships you make this week will contribute as much as

School of International Futures (SOIF) anything to our efforts to build a better future. 215 Albany Street, London NW1 4AB United Kingdom Alun and Cat Tel: +44 300 302 0486

3 Who we are The SOIF four-stage process

School of International Futures 2015 and your learning journey

Founded in 2012, the School of International Futures SOIF provides project, training and advisory SOIF has developed a four-stage process to ensure SOIF2015 themes and Live challenge (SOIF) is an independent non-profit organisation services, and hosts seminars and retreats that both that our clients as well as new foresight users are At SOIF2015 we will explore three themes: a based in the UK, whose mission is to build the promote the methodology and tools for using aware of the essential components of successful methodological question, a policy issue, and a capacity of policy-makers, business leaders, horizon scanning. foresight work. For foresight to have impact, it needs geographic “Live challenge.” We will consider the international organisations and civil society to use to be conceived from the outset with the decision- Projects tension between “urgency and patience” in policy- and gain value from strategic foresight. maker, policy-maker, or other client of the work making. How to balance the benefits of taking • Horizon scanning, drivers of change and in mind. SOIF’s four stages – Scoping, Ordering, We provide our clients with the tools and techniques immediate and decisive action with the need to reflect scenario-based reports Implications and Integrating Futures – lead you to become better commissioners and users of carefully on the future, build long-term plans and through the steps necessary to achieve this goal. strategic foresight, and encourage the development • Trend analysis make investments that will take time to pay back? of foresight capacity through investment in skills During the course of your week with us, you will Training With the help of our expert speakers and faculty, we and structures. embark on a “learning journey” through these four will examine and challenge the narrative of a “ring • Training sessions - from half-day to five-day – stages. The shape, stages and steps on this journey Our offer is built on the SOIF founders’ experience of instability” surrounding Europe. We will attempt tailored to an organisation’s activities are set out graphically below. You will also learn and leading and implementing strategy and foresight to go beyond the crisis and usual short-term practise a number of tools during the week. These projects in more than 30 countries. We believe that • Foresight module development and delivery – framings to explore factors underlying geopolitical tools are indicated in the programme (on following foresight leads to better plans and decisions, and from three days to two weeks – as part of an tensions, security, migration, etc. and also to look pages) by icons next to the session in which the tool can play an important role in transforming the world executive education or MBA course for opportunities related to these and other trends. will be explained. we live in, for the better. Finally, the Live challenge this year is brought by the Advisory European External Action Service (EEAS) which What we do • Setting up or enhancing an existing foresight unit is seeking input to its consultation on the second SOIF helps you to think differently – and confidently • Integrating foresight with an existing business round of the Strategic Review process “The EU in a – about the future. process, e.g. strategy development, risk changing global environment.” The key to confident decision-making and management successful strategy is the ability to imagine and plan Our clients for different future scenarios. Our bespoke training, retreats, coaching and advisory services help you to Arts Council England, Bond, Swedish Defence create a bright future for your organisation. University (FHS), Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), Graduate Institute Geneva (HEID), Stiftung We advocate for the value of thinking about the Neue Verantwortung Berlin (SNV), S. Korea Science future, and support our network with examples of and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI), UN-Habitat, success and good practice. We build capability by World Vision International providing support and advice on designing future- ready organisations. We help build coalitions for Annual flagship retreats future change through our networks and retreats. Five-day, held every August, in UK At SOIF retreats and courses, you join a global Sectoral retreats network of foresight professionals who imagine the future together. You receive advice and insights Three- to five-day, recently held for humanitarian from world experts who have already used foresight sector in Geneva to make a difference in the world and gain the skills Regional retreats to plan a future of prosperity, security and wellbeing for your organisation. Three- to five-day, SOIF Asia Pacific held 2014 in Hawaii. Plans for regional retreats to be held in Africa and India

4 5 2015 Monday 10 August 2015 Tuesday 11 August

Day 1 0730-0830 Breakfast 1300 – 1430 Participants arrive, check-in and buffet lunch available 0700-0745 Yoga session (Garden or James Wyatt room) 1500 – 1600 1. Welcome and introductions Day 2: Stages I to II SOIF was set up to build the capacity of policy-makers, business leaders, international Scoping to Ordering organisations and civil society to use and gain value from strategic foresight and to What the policy maker needs – how foresight can meet that need – principles of futures create better futures. thinking and drivers of change – participants’ experiences. Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 0900-0925 5. Starting the Learning journey Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1600-1700 2. Setting the Scene: “Views on the Future” 0925-1045 6. The policy client’s perspective (panel session) Winfried Veit Scenario planning consultant; Lecturer, European Foreign and Security Decision-makers and senior researchers from government, civil society and the private Policy, University of Freiburg and EU Center of IES. sector discuss the relationship between strategic foresight and policy, and their experience of commissioning futures work. Slim Amamou Founder, Pirate Party, Tunisia Michael Denison Group Political Adviser, BP plc Chaired by: Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Heather Grabbe Director, Open Society European Policy Institute 1700-1730 Tea/Coffee János Zlinszky Director, Sustainable Development Academy, Szentendre, Hungary; 1730-1800 3. Introduction to foresight, the SOIF Learning Journey and principles for thinking about Associate Professor, Department for Environmental Law and Competition Law, Peter the future Pazmany Catholic University, Budapest, Hungary Indra Adnan Director, Soft Power Network; Co-founder, The Downing Street Project Chaired by: Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1045-1115 Tea/Coffee 1815-1900 4. Introducing the Live Challenge 1115-1300 7. Introduction to scoping. Scoping the Live Challenge, including feedback We present the important foreign policy issue brought to us by our “client” and consider Outlining the purpose of the scoping stage, exercise in breakout groups and how to frame it as a foresight question that we can address over the next four days. report back. Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Group exercise: Scoping note. Alfredo Conte Head of Strategic Planning Division, European External Action Service Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Respondents: 1300 Conference photograph Tomas Ries Senior Lecturer, Security and Strategy, National Defence College, Stockholm 1315 Lunch followed by tea/coffee Andrey Kortunov Director General, Russian International Affairs Council 1445-1530 8. SOIF faculty session I: Principles of futures thinking 1930 Conference drinks followed by dinner at 8pm A short introduction to how and why futures thinking is different from other types of Urgency and Patience policy and strategy thinking – a first look at foresight concepts. After-dinner speaker: Jean-Philippe Toussaint Writer, photographer and film-maker Group exercise: Statements of the future. Andrew Curry Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Director, The Futures Company, and Vice Chair, Association of Professional Futurists. 1530-1645 9. SOIF Faculty session II: Ordering: using drivers of change Understanding the difference between drivers of change and emerging issues. Developing drivers and making connections. Group exercise: Making a drivers map. Andrew Curry Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Director, The Futures Company, and Vice Chair, Association of Professional Futurists. 1645-1715 Tea/coffee 1715-1830 10. Participants’ experience of foresight Participants share their experience of foresight work, giving examples of projects they have been involved in. Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1900 Barbecue and Croquet

6 7 2015 Wednesday 12 August 2015 Thursday 13 August

0730-0830 Breakfast 0730-0900 Breakfast 0700-0745 Yoga session (Garden or James Wyartt room) Day 3: Stages II to III Day 4: Stages III to IV Ordering to implications. Introduction to scenarios – global trends and scenarios – Implications to Integrating Futures. Building on the scenario analysis to identify scenario development – views from different geographies. implications for policy – application of foresight to policy 0915-0930 11. Continuing the Learning journey 0900-0930 18. Continuing the Learning journey Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 0930-1015 12. SOIF faculty session III: Building scenarios 0930-1000 19. SOIF faculty session IV: Implications – making the bridge from futures to policy. Introduction to different scenario methodologies and their use in policy Andrew Curry Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Director, The – guidelines for scenario construction. Futures Company, and Vice Chair, Association of Professional Futurists. Andrew Curry Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Director, The Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Futures Company, and Vice Chair, Association of Professional Futurists. 1000-1100 20. Understanding implications. 1015-1045 Tea/coffee Group exercise: Three Horizons. 1045-1200 13. Trends and Scenarios (panel session) An international panel explains how they develop scenarios and apply them to policy. Andrew Curry Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Director, The Futures Company, and Vice Chair, Association of Professional Futurists. Mathew Burrows Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Atlantic Council; Principal Drafter, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, National Intelligence Council 1100-1130 Break Vinay Gupta Inventor Hexayurt; Infrastructure theorist; Blockchain Technologist, 1130-1300 21. SOIF faculty session V: Rapid Worldbuilding Ethereum How to model and react to new situations – and look beyond familiar narratives and archetypes. ‘Rapid prototyping’ to accelerate worldbuilding and enhance agility. Danièle Réchard Head of Global Trends Unit and Member of ESPAS, European Parliamentary Research Service, European Parliament Scott Smith Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Founder, Changeist Simon Webb Executive Director, The Nichols Group; former Director-General, Department for Transport and Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom 1300 Lunch and Garden Tour Chaired by: Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1430-1545 22. A panel debates how to think through the implications of foresight work and develop the strategic capability of organisations to harness foresight in policy and 1200-1300 14. Start scenario development Plenary followed by scenario development decision making processes (panel session) exercises in groups, working on the Live Challenge. Using the Ethnographic Futures framework to build on a two by two approach. Lisa Bronson Professor, National War College Andrew Curry Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Director, The Rosemarie Forsythe Former Director, International Political Strategy at ExxonMobil and Futures Company, and Vice Chair, Association of Professional Futurists. White House National Security Council Director for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian Affairs Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Didier Schmitt Space Task Force, European External Action Service 1300 Lunch (followed by Learning walk) Chaired by: Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1500-1600 15. Continue scenario development 1545 Tea/coffee available Plenary session followed by exercise in breakout groups continued. 1545-1745 23. Completing the Live Challenge: Developing presentations 1600-1645 16. Scenarios report-back Participants prepare their advice to the client on how to respond to the Live Challenge. Report-back and discussion in plenary. 1745-1845 24. Presenting results of Live Challenge work 1645-1715 Tea/coffee Groups provide their recommendations to the Live Challenge client. 1715-1830 17. Views on the retreat theme from different Alfredo Conte Head of Strategic Planning Division, European External Action Service geographies 2000 Gala dinner Chaired by: Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1930 Dinner After-dinner speaker: President Tarja Halonen President of Finland (2000-2012)

8 9 2015 Friday 14 August Speaker biographies

0730-0900 Breakfast and Checkout In 2005 he was part of the team that Foreign and Security Policy at the set up the UK’s Horizon Scanning University of Freiburg and at the EU Day 5: Lessons from the week Centre, based at the Foresight unit in Center of IES in Freiburg, and he is the the Government Office for Science. author of numerous books and articles Integrating the foresight approach: bringing foresight back to the office. Lessons from He worked at the Centre until on international issues. the whole week and we wrap-up the journey for this year. Goodbyes. 2012, running projects such as the International Futures Project, World 0930-0945 25. Concluding the Learning journey Trade: Possible Futures, and Technology Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London and Innovation Futures, on behalf of major UK government departments. The 0945-1100 26. Stage IV – Integrating the futures approach Catarina Tully International Futures Project (2007) was Embedding and communicating project insights, building strategic described by the Permanent Secretaries capability Catarina Tully is Co-Founder of Strategy Group as “emblematic of how the School of International Futures horizon scanning could be used to and stimulating a more forward-looking organisation – future artefacts and and Founder of FromOverHere, a develop strategic thinking”. Technology capability matrix consultancy providing strategy and and Innovation Futures (2010) marked foreign policy advice. She has advised a turning point in the government’s Visiting Faculty Member, School of International Futures; Founder, Changeist Slim Amamou Scott Smith the UK parliament on an inquiry into approach to technology policy. Government Strategic Capability, worked Slim Amamou is a computer Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Alun commissioned and edited the on the US NIC Global Trends 2030 programmer, entrepreneur and blogger. Sigma Scan, a unique repository of 1100-1120 Tea/coffee report, as well as consulted and trained He co-founded the web agency horizon scanning articles relevant to senior officials from governments around AlphaStudios in 1999 and ALIXSYS public policy; conceived and edited 1120-1145 27. Next steps on your Journey – your ideas the world, She is on the UN Sustainable in 2008 as a web services company the global trends report Dimensions of Working with your learning partner, developing commitments to action to integrate the Development Goal 16 Advisory Panel. for enterprise. His writings focus on Uncertainty; and published Scenario the modalities and mechanisms for the techniques we have learnt. Prior to setting up these organisations, Planning: A Guidance Note on scenario emergence of new global society of the Cat was Strategy Project Director at the planning in government. He is currently 1145-1215 28. Next steps on your Journey – session with SOIF advisers Internet. He is also a founder of the UK FCO and Senior Policy Adviser in the working on projects for the Institute Pirate Party and known for his positions SOIF advisers offer their support to participants on their plans. Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit (under of Development Studies, Brighton and against censorship and intellectual Tony Blair and Gordon Brown). She Imperial College, London. 1215-1315 29. Completing the Learning journey property and fights for the neutrality of previously worked for Christian Aid, Before joining the UK Horizon Scanning the Internet. Technoserve and Proctor and Gamble, Goodbyes Centre, Alun set up and ran a software as well as the UN, European Commission Arrested in 2010 for organizing a street development company in Prague, which 1315 Lunch and the World Bank in Geneva. protest against internet censorship and was the fastest growing tech company in then again in 2011 during the Tunisian Cat has a Social and Political Science the Czech Republic in 2000. 1400 Participants depart revolution on the background of degree from Cambridge University, an He holds a BA in modern and medieval anonymous attacks, he was appointed MPA from Princeton and a business languages from Cambridge University. Secretary of State for Youth and Sports and finance strategy qualification in the new Tunisian interim government (CIMA). She is an Honorary Fellow of three days after getting out of jail. the Strategy and Security Institute at He resigned after the return of Internet Exeter University, a visiting professor censorship. at RANEPA in Moscow and a visiting Director at Wilton Park. She is a trustee for Women´s Health and Family Alfredo Conte Services in Tower Hamlets in London, a community-based health advocacy Alfredo Conte is Head of Strategic organisation working with Black and Planning at the European External Ethnic Minority women and their families; Action Service (EEAS). Following of Involve, a public participation think- an internship at the Ecole Nationale tank; of the Foundation for Democracy Winfried Veit d’Administration (ENA), Paris, Alfredo and Sustainable Development; and a entered the Italian Diplomatic Service Global Board member of Academics Winfried Veit is a political scientist, in 1993 and postings included Consul at Stand Against Poverty. author and scenario facilitator, who the Consulate General of Italy in Hong received his PhD in International Kong from 1996 to 2001 a period which Relations from the Free University saw the handover and Asian financial of Berlin. He was for many years a crisis. In 2004 he was First Secretary staff member of the Friedrich Ebert at the Embassy of Italy in Berlin with Foundation, including as Head of responsibility for both domestic and Department for Eastern Europe and foreign policy (including the Iraq crisis). Central Asia, and as director of the FES Between 2009 and 2010 he worked country offices in South Africa, Israel, in the Cabinet of the Minister for Paris and Geneva. successive Foreign Ministers (Franco Frattini, Gianfranco Fini, Massimo Winfried participated in and facilitated D’Alema) before being seconded to the scenario planning exercises in South General Secretariat of the Council of the Africa, Israel, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Alun Rhydderch European Union as Senior Advisor to the on Global Economic Governance, the Director of Policy. Alfredo holds a Law Alun Rhydderch is a Co-founder of the Future of the Eurozone and German- degree from University of Naples. School of International Futures and Russian relations. He teaches European Director of Horizon Scanning Ltd. 10 11 Europe: How Enlargement will Transform In 2007, he was appointed Counselor the EU (2004, CER); Germany and (number three position) in the NIC Britain: An Alliance of Necessity (with and was responsible for managing Wolfgang Münchau, 2002, CER); a staff of senior analysts who guide Profiting from EU Enlargement (2001, and shepherd all NIC products from CER) and Enlarging the EU Eastwards inception to dissemination. He was the (with Kirsty Hughes, 1998, Cassell/RIIA). principal drafter for the NIC publication Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, which received widespread praise in the international media. Burrows joined Michael Denison Andrew Curry Indra Adnan Tomas Ries the CIA in 1986, serving as analyst for Indra Adnan is Director of the Soft Dr. Tomas Ries is Senior Lecturer Michael Denison joined BP in 2013 as Andrew Curry is a Director of The the Directorate of Intelligence (DI), Power Network and co-founder of (Assistant Professor in the US) in Group Political Adviser. He was formerly Futures Company in London, where covering Western Europe, including the The Downing Street Project. For over Security and Strategy at the National Global Research Director for Control he leads on futures practice and is development of European institutions twenty years, Indra has been writing, Defence College, Stockholm, Sweden. Risks, the international business risk Managing Editor of the company’s such as the European Union. Other consulting, network-building and event- He has worked with security studies consultancy, where he led a team of thought leadership series, Future previous positions included assignments organising in the international arena of since 1979. His three main interests are 60 analysts and consultants providing Perspectives. As a consultant he as special assistant to the US UN soft power, conflict transformation and the globalising security environment global political and security risk analysis has worked on dozens of scenarios Ambassador Richard Holbrooke (1999- for government and corporate clients. and scanning projects for clients in 2001) and deputy national security transformational politics. A practicing and future trends; the epistemological János Zlinszky socio-psychotherapist and coach, she and practical challenges of the new Michael previously worked as Special the private, public and third sector. advisor to US Treasury Secretary Paul works in both the public and private security environment; and the essence Adviser to the former UK Foreign Dr.János Zlinszky served as senior His clients have included the UK O’Neill (2001-02). sphere advising on personal, local of strategy and security. During the Secretary, David Miliband. Working in the scientific adviser to the Co-chair of the government’s Foresight Programme and and global agency with clients in Cold War (1979-1992) he focused on the Foreign Secretary’s private office, he was UN Open Working Group for Sustainable the UK Environment Agency, where a Brazil, Finland, India, Mexico and the US-Soviet strategic nuclear relationship responsible for delivering global policy Development Goals (SDGs), and has set of 50-year scenarios informed the UK including the British Council, the in the Arctic, Soviet military interests advice. been in the innermost circle of experts Agency’s 50 year water strategy. He was who assisted the process and helped also the lead author of the UK Cabinet Scottish Executive and the Institute of and grand strategy in the north, Nordic He started his career at KPMG but to formulate the final SDG consensus Office report, Understanding Best Contemporary Arts. She writes regularly security and Finland’s security policy. moved into academia as Lecturer in for The Guardian and The Huffington document. Practice In Strategic Futures. Tomas is an honorary Member of the International Security at the University Post. Her e-books Soft Power Agenda Atlantic Council, adjunct Professor at of Leeds and Visiting Lecturer at the János is the former Head of Department He has published extensively on futures and New Times are available on Abo Akademi and the Baltic Defence University of St Andrews. Michael holds for Strategy and Research in the Office subjects, including – with Wendy Schultz indraadnan.com College. He holds honorary positions an MA in Modern History from Oxford of the Parliamentary Commissioner for – “Roads Less Travelled”, on comparative at Royal Academy of Military Science University, where he was the Frampton Future Generations (2008-12), Hungary. scenarios methods and – with Anthony (Stockholm), Royal Naval Society Prize scholar, and a PhD. from the During the 2011 recent EU Presidency of Hodgson – the first academic paper Vinay Gupta University of Leeds. Hungary, Dr. Zlinszky was chair and vice on the Three Horizons method. He (Stockholm), Finland’s Academy of Vinay Gupta started in software and chair to the two EU Council international also edited, for the Association of Military Science, in addition to several cryptography in the 1990s, took a environmental policy committees (WPIEI Professional Futurists, their tenth boards, expert advisory groups and sojourn at Rocky Mountain Institute Horizontal and Global). He also served anniversary essay collection, The Future networks. He has written two books and working on the impact of critical as Senior Adviser for Environmental of Futures. numerous articles and research studies. infrastructure on policy, and then moved Policy to HE Prof. Laszlo Sólyom, the His Futures Company report, The 21st into the defence, security and resilience Tomas holds a BSc from London School “Green President” of Hungary (2006- Century Business (co-authored with field. He is best known for the Hexayurt of Economics and Political Science 10). János is currently Director of the Jules Peck), won the 2015 WPP Atticus Project, his innovative work on large and a Ph.D. from Graduate Institute of Sustainable Development Academy thought leadership award in the Strategy scale humanitarian crises, looking at International Studies at Geneva of the REC. In 1996 he set up the Andrey Kortunov Category, while his Unlocking New capital-efficient ways of providing Department for Environment Studies Sources of Growth, won the Atticus shelter and basic infrastructure on Andrey Kortunov is Director General (now Department for Environmental Law Grand Prix in 2013. He is the Vice Chair the scale required to address climate of the Russian International Affairs University. and Competition Law) at the Catholic Heather Grabbe of the Association of Professional migration or city-clearing disaster Council. He graduated from the Moscow University in Budapest, and serves as Futurists. scenarios. This work found a home in State Institute of International Relations Dr Heather Grabbe is Director of the Associate Professor. He has designed the US at the US NDU STAR-TIDES (MGIMO) and undertook postgraduate Open Society European Policy Institute, and taught courses in Sustainable project, and in the UK at UCL ISRS. He studies at the Institute for US and Canadian the EU policy arm of the Open Society Development at institutions including has recently returned to technology, and Studies, USSR Academy of Sciences. Foundations established by George the École Supérieure de Commerce et is working with the Ethereum Project, Andrey holds a Ph.D. degree in History. Soros. From 2004-2009 she was Senior de Management, France and Carleton one of the leading successors to bitcoin, Advisor to European Commissioner for University, Ottawa and University of Andrey was Deputy Director of the to create a “smart contract” platform Enlargement Olli Rehn, responsible in Cambridge. Institute for US and Canadian Studies with applications in trade, sustainable his Cabinet for the Balkans and Turkey. and Founder and first president of the Jean-Philippe Toussaint His qualifications include doctorates development and smart cities. As Before joining the Commission, she Moscow Public Science Foundation. in Natural Sciences and Environmental an engineer in the policy sector, his Jean-Philippe Toussaint is a Belgian was Deputy Director of the Centre for He has taught Russian foreign policy at Biology from the Eötvös Loránd perspective is often unexpected. prose writer, photographer and European Reform, the London-based the University of Miami (USA), and at University, Budapest and PhD from the filmmaker. His books have been think-tank, working with Charles Grant the Lewis & Clark College in Portland University of Ulster, Coleraine, United translated into more than twenty on a wide range of European issues. Her Mathew Burrows (University of California). In 2011, he was Kingdom. He is a member of various languages and he has had his academic career included teaching at elected Director General of the Russian learned societies and NGOs engaged in Mathew Burrows serves as director of photographs displayed in Europe and the London School of Economics, and International Affairs Council non-profit the work for sustainability, including the the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Asia. In 2012 Toussaint created an research at Oxford and Birmingham partnership established by order of the Freshwater Biological Association (UK), Initiative. His recent book is entitled The exhibition at the Louvre Museum which universities, the Royal Institute for President of the Russian Federation. International Office for Water (France), Future Declassified: Megatrends that combines the artist’s photographs, International Affairs (Chatham House, the Foundation for Democracy and Will Undo the World Unless We Take His academic focus is on international videos, installation art and performance London) and the European University Sustainable Development (UK), and the Action (Palgrave/Macmillan, published relations, foreign and domestic policy of pieces to “convey books without using Institute (Florence). Russia and Russian-American relations. writing.” “Balaton Group” (INRIC, USA). 9 September 2014). In August 2013 Andrey is author of over 120 publications Her publications include The EU’s he retired from a 28-year career in the dedicated to the analysis of Soviet/ Transformative Power: Europeanisation CIA and State Department, the last ten Russian-American relations, global through Conditionality in Central being spent at the National Intelligence security, and the foreign and domestic and Eastern Europe (2006, Palgrave Council (NIC), the premier analytic policy of the USSR and Russia. Macmillan); The Constellations of unit in the US Intelligence Community.

12 13 Ms. Bronson served as the Deputy Under was a US diplomat and policymaker Secretary of Defense for Technology for over 15 years, serving in the White Security Policy and Counterproliferation House and in various US diplomatic and the Director of the Defense postings abroad. As Director for Russian, Technology Security Administration Ukrainian and Eurasian Affairs in the (2001-2005). She was responsible for National Security Council of the White overseeing the Cooperative Threat House from 1993 to 1995, she helped Reduction program and developing negotiate the 1994 Nagorno-Karabakh technology security policy for DOD. She ceasefire between Armenia and served as the Chairman of NATO’s Senior Azerbaijan and denuclearize Kazakhstan, Danièle Réchard Simon Webb Tarja Halonen Scott Smith Defense Group on Proliferation and Belarus and Ukraine. In addition, she After having gathered first experiences Simon Webb is Executive Director H.E. Ms. Tarja Halonen was the 11th Scott Smith is the founder of Changeist, championed the creation of the NATO established the first formal US policy in the industrial sector, Danièle joined at Nichols, a London based advisory President of the Republic of Finland and where he leads strategy, research and Chemical, Biological and Radiological/ toward Caspian oil and gas and has also the European Institutions where she company working internationally. Simon Finland’s first female head of state from design activities. His work is built on Nuclear Defense Battalion that was worked at the Rand Corporation and the gained extensive insight in various policy specialises in strategic planning, major 2000-2012. over 20 years’ experience tracking social, fielded during the 2004 Olympics. US Department of Commerce. fields (Social Affairs, Home and Justice projects and transforming change cultural, technological and economic Her professional career started in the Ms. Bronson was the Deputy Assistant Rosemarie serves on the Advisory Board Affairs, in particular migration issues, as programmes. He leads with clients in the trends, and combines grounded research national Union of Finnish Students, as Secretary of Defense for European for the Center for Non-Proliferation well as Constitutional Affairs). transport, nuclear, utility and security with narrative design to explore the Social Affairs Secretary in 1969–70. After and NATO Affairs (1999 – 2001). She Studies, The Center for Strategic and sectors, including chairing the Transcend unanticipated. Danièle graduated from Sciences- graduating from University of Helsinki received the “Distinguished Executive” International Studies (CSIS)Transnational consortium which is the programme Po Paris (Service Public) and holds a with a Master of Law she started as a Before founding Changeist, Scott served Presidential Rank Award for her Threats Group, the CSIS Eurasia partner to Crossrail. Master of Laws from the Sorbonne. lawyer in the Central Organization of as director of research applications accomplishments during her public Initiative, and the National Museum for She has experience in several fields of Simon was elected to the Board of the Finnish Trade Unions in 1970, a position at Social Technologies, a futures and service career (2000). Women and the Arts. expertise having worked not only in the Major Projects Association in 2010. she held throughout her political career. innovation consultancy. Prior to this, he She served as the Director of NATO She holds academic degrees from private sector but also in the European He leads the MPA work on improving Tarja joined the Social Democratic party spent a decade leading start-up research Policy in the Office of the Secretary of Indiana University, Columbia University Institutions. decisions on future projects, including in 1971 and was appointed parliamentary and consulting teams for international Defense (1996-99). She oversaw the and the University of California at Los how forecast benefits are measured, and secretary to the Prime Minister in 1974. technology research firms in New York In her present post at the European Department’s contribution to NATO’s Angeles. on briefing MPs on how to be a politician She was elected to the Parliament for City, Washington, DC, and London Parliament (European Parliamentary 50th Anniversary Summit including the for a project. the first time in 1979, and re-elected five working with public- and private- Research Service) Danièle is in charge revision of NATO’s strategic concept, the times, until she assumed the office of the sector strategy, design and R&D teams of setting up the Global Trends Unit Until March 2009, Simon was a Director- launching of the Defense Capabilities President of Finland. She served as Chair worldwide, including UNICEF, Nokia, that focuses on following long-term General at the Department for Transport Initiative, and the demonstration of of the Social Affairs Committee (1984– Ford, Barilla and Proctor & Gamble. global trends to analyse how these accountable for strategy and major the Partnership for Peace Simulation 87), Deputy-Chair of the Legal Affairs might affect the European Union and projects. He led for DFT on developing Scott leads partnerships with a range Network. Committee (1991–95), and Chair of the policy making. The aim is to facilitate a the Foresight scenarios for Transport in of institutions and groups on public Grand Committee in 1995. A central part Ms. Bronson received her B.A. common awareness within the European 2050. His responsibilities also included projects including collaborations of Tarja Halonen’s political activity has from Cornell University and was Parliament, other European Institutions air and maritime international issues, with Superflux, Near Future been her five terms in the Helsinki City commissioned as a second lieutenant in and beyond and to contribute to the climate change and transport security. Laboratory, FutureEverything, Demos Council in 1977–96. the U.S. Army in 1979. She was awarded European Strategy and Policy Analysis He chaired the Management Board of Helsinki, and Lighthouse Studio. the parachute badge in 1978. She System, a high-level administrative the 51 country International Transport She has served in three cabinets as Scott is an Advisor with London- received her law degree from Cornell Didier Schmitt dialogue between the European Forum looking at long term trends. Minister at the Ministry of Social Affairs based Anthemis Group, has been an University in 1982 and entered the U.S. Institutions. and Health, Minister of Justice, and expert consultant to international Didier is a member of the space Task Previously, to 2004 Simon was the Policy Army Judge Advocate General’s Corps Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister research companies, including ?WhatIf!, Force at the European External Action Danièle served as Head of Unit in the field Director at the Ministry of Defence, in 1983. She served six years on active for Nordic co-operation. During her time and GfK and has supported scenario Service, working on security issues and of Citizens’ Rights and Constitutional leading post-September 11th strategy duty during 1983-1989 with tours in as Foreign Minister, Finland held for development for the upcoming Museum diplomacy. He was previously scientific Affairs, as an advisor to Inigo Mendez and on defence restructuring. He was Schweinfurt, Germany (3rd Infantry the first time the EU Presidency. Tarja of the Future 2016 developed by the adviser and foresight coordinator at De Vigo, President of the EP Delegation responsible for the MOD Strategic Division) and Camp Casey, Korea (2nd has played an active role at the Council Prime Minister’s Office of the UAE. the European Commission (2012-14) to the Convention on the EU Charter of Trends publication looking at security Infantry Division). of Europe, first as Deputy-Chair of the in the Chief Scientific Advisor’s Office Fundamental Rights (2000) and as a issues to 2040. Scott is programme coordinator and Finnish Delegation to the Parliamentary and in the Bureau of European Policy counsellor to the former President of the lead lecturer in futures, innovation and Simon’s earlier career was centered Assembly and in the Ministerial Advisers to the President and was the EP Delegation to the Convention on the design at IED Barcelona, and was a co- on defence policy and acquisition, Committee. She was a Member of the liaison with the President’s Cabinet. He draft Constitution (2002-2003). developer, lead instructor and advisor for especially military interventions and Committee of Wise Persons of the established a cross-disciplinary foresight the Futures Institute at the Duke Danièle taught as a Maître de Conférence nuclear strategy. He served in the United Council of Europe in 1998–99. network of 21 DGs and an expert group at the Sciences-Po Paris (“système et States at the Rand Corporation, and on concurrent design foresight as a new President Halonen has held and holds vie politiques de l’UE”) and has first- earlier in HM Treasury. tool for policymaking. He participated in various national and international University TIP program. hand knowledge in migration issues the inter-institutional mega trend report Simon studied Engineering and honorary positions including Co-Chair of having been a fellow at the University of ‘European Strategy and Policy Analysis Economics at Oxford University and ILO’s World Commission on the Social Colorado. System’ and led a Eurobarometer survey International Trade at Georgetown Dimension of Globalization (2002- on science and technological innovation University. He was made CBE in 1990 2004), Co-Chair of the UN High-level Rosemarie Forsythe with a 2030 outlook. and Fellow of the Institution of Civil Panel on Global Sustainability (2010- Engineers in 2014. 2012), Chair of the Council of Women Dr Rosemarie Forsythe has worked as a Dr Schmitt has a PhD in immunology World Leaders (2009-2014) and is scholar, diplomat, US policymaker and and pharmacology and degrees such as currently Co-Chair of the High-Level Task business executive in the former Soviet mountain emergency medical care and in Force for ICPD (2012-), Union, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. aerospace medicine. He has authored over Lisa Bronson 40 scientific articles in international peer Tarja Halonen has paid close attention Until her retirement in April 2013, Professor Bronson has been a member reviewed journals. In 1994 he was selected to issues of sustainable development, Rosemarie was Director, International of the National War College faculty since astronaut-candidate finalist by NASA. human rights, gender equality, social Political Strategy at the Exxon Mobil August 2005. Her areas of focus include: justice, democracy and civil society Corporation, where she helped formulate He was head of the life sciences National Security Strategy Development throughout her political career the company’s strategy toward over 70 programme at the European Space and Decision Making, International countries across the globe. Agency where he was instrumental Negotiations, Alternative Futures in sharing research resources on the Analysis/Scenario Planning, Adult Prior to her 15-year career as an oil and International Space Station, and from Learning, and WMD Proliferation. gas company executive, Rosemarie 2006 to 2009 he was a member of the ESA Director General’s task-force. 14 15 Hartwell House

Hartwell House, Gardens, Park and Grounds History Facilities Hartwell House is a National Trust property and Participants and speakers have free access to stands in 90 acres of parkland, landscaped by a facilities at Hartwell House including the Spa, Tennis contemporary of Capability Brown, with a lake Courts, Swimming Pool and Gym. Please email spanned by a stone bridge, a ruined church and Mirella Di Bratto at [email protected] for many 18th century statues and garden buildings more information. Hartwell House has a rich history: first mentioned The Hartwell Spa and Gym is situated close to the in the Doomsday Book as belonging to William Hartwell Rooms and Hartwell Court, about 100 yards Peverel, son of William the Conquerer, the from the main house. Swim in the warm clear water present house was built in 1600 by the famous of the inviting pool lined with blue mosaic tiles, relax Buckinghamshire family, The Hampdens. in the steam room, sauna and the bubbling waters of the whirlpool King John stayed just before signing the Magna Carta into existence; while guests included Louis Experienced therapists offer a wide range of beauty XVIII of France and his family, and Gustavus IV of treatments using Aromatherapy Associates and Sweden, also in exile. More recently, the house has Jessica products. Individual treatments are available played host to the G7 finance ministers, and Bill to guests staying in the hotel Clinton, who addressed the US nation from the Opening times: library. Spa and Gym: 7.30am - 9.00pm During Louis XVIII’s residence between 1809 and (Mon-Fri) 7.30am-7.30pm (Sat/Sun) 1814, he was joined by his Queen, Marie-Josephine Tennis Courts: 7.30am until dusk de Savoie, his niece the Duchesse D’Angoulême, daughter of Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette, his Hartwell House Hotel, Restaurant and Spa brother the Comte d’Artois, later Charles X, and Oxford Road Gustavus IV the exiled King of Sweden. During Near Aylesbury the residence of the French Court the roof was Buckinghamshire HP17 8NR converted into a miniature farm, where birds and Main Switchboard rabbits were reared in cages, while vegetables and Tel: +44 (1296) 747444 herbs were cultivated in densely planted tubs. Shops Fax: +44 (1296) 747450 were opened in the outbuildings by émigrés short of Email: [email protected] money. www.hartwell-house.com Hartwell House remained in the possession of the original families until 1938, when it was purchased by Ernest Cook, an early pioneer of the conservation movement who transferred the house and estate into the Ernest Cook Trust in 1952. From 1957 until 1983 the house was leased to a distinguished girls’ finishing school, the School of Citizenship, before being leased to Historic House Hotels who spent a substantial sum restoring the house, park and gardens and furnishing the house. Hartwell House opened as a hotel in 1989 and final restoration finished in 1992 and still retains both Jacobean and Georgian features with outstanding decorative ceilings and panelling, fine paintings and antique furniture in its elegant and spacious rooms. It remains a place for discreet conversations

18 19 Contact information:

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