2015 Strategic foresight retreat 10 to 14 August 2015 Hartwell House 2015 Welcome to SOIF 2015! It is with enormous pleasure that we welcome you to SOIF’s fourth annual retreat on Strategic foresight. In the summer of 2012 we launched the School of International Futures with our first retreat at Wilton Park. We were immediately encouraged by the number of people ready to sign up to a week-long retreat on strategic foresight, in the middle of their summer holidays. Particularly gratifying was the range of nationalities and backgrounds of those who joined us, and the attitude of those who came: wanting to learn and discuss foresight not simply as a theory or discipline, but as a way of understanding and changing the future. The attitude and expectations of our participants have shaped SOIF into an organisation dedicated to teaching and promoting foresight as a practical discipline for policy and planning but also one that transforms the world we live in, and helps us make better decisions today, for a better future. We try to do three things: make you better users and commissioners of foresight; send you back to your job after your time with us ready to build future-ready organisations; and encourage you to learn from each other and support each other as a foresight community. The process, methodology and techniques we’ll introduce at SOIF2015 – with the help of our visiting faculty – are ones we have found achieve results in a range of different organisations. But strategic foresight is an art as well as a science; we will ask you to draw on both as you grapple during guided sessions with the Live challenge brought by our policy client, the European External Action Service (EEAS). We hope you enjoy the next few days! We’ve tried to leave time in the programme for walks in the grounds, chats on the sofa, tennis, swimming, even early-morning yoga… but we hope the learning and debate too will be enjoyable, as well as fruitful for your future plans. Thank you for coming to SOIF2015 with an open mind, and heart – we hope the relationships you make this week will contribute as much as School of International Futures (SOIF) anything to our efforts to build a better future. 215 Albany Street, London NW1 4AB United Kingdom Alun and Cat Tel: +44 300 302 0486 3 Who we are The SOIF four-stage process School of International Futures 2015 and your learning journey Founded in 2012, the School of International Futures SOIF provides project, training and advisory SOIF has developed a four-stage process to ensure SOIF2015 themes and Live challenge (SOIF) is an independent non-profit organisation services, and hosts seminars and retreats that both that our clients as well as new foresight users are At SOIF2015 we will explore three themes: a based in the UK, whose mission is to build the promote the methodology and tools for using aware of the essential components of successful methodological question, a policy issue, and a capacity of policy-makers, business leaders, horizon scanning. foresight work. For foresight to have impact, it needs geographic “Live challenge.” We will consider the international organisations and civil society to use to be conceived from the outset with the decision- Projects tension between “urgency and patience” in policy- and gain value from strategic foresight. maker, policy-maker, or other client of the work making. How to balance the benefits of taking • Horizon scanning, drivers of change and in mind. SOIF’s four stages – Scoping, Ordering, We provide our clients with the tools and techniques immediate and decisive action with the need to reflect scenario-based reports Implications and Integrating Futures – lead you to become better commissioners and users of carefully on the future, build long-term plans and through the steps necessary to achieve this goal. strategic foresight, and encourage the development • Trend analysis make investments that will take time to pay back? of foresight capacity through investment in skills During the course of your week with us, you will Training With the help of our expert speakers and faculty, we and structures. embark on a “learning journey” through these four will examine and challenge the narrative of a “ring • Training sessions - from half-day to five-day – stages. The shape, stages and steps on this journey Our offer is built on the SOIF founders’ experience of instability” surrounding Europe. We will attempt tailored to an organisation’s activities are set out graphically below. You will also learn and leading and implementing strategy and foresight to go beyond the crisis and usual short-term practise a number of tools during the week. These projects in more than 30 countries. We believe that • Foresight module development and delivery – framings to explore factors underlying geopolitical tools are indicated in the programme (on following foresight leads to better plans and decisions, and from three days to two weeks – as part of an tensions, security, migration, etc. and also to look pages) by icons next to the session in which the tool can play an important role in transforming the world executive education or MBA course for opportunities related to these and other trends. will be explained. we live in, for the better. Finally, the Live challenge this year is brought by the Advisory European External Action Service (EEAS) which What we do • Setting up or enhancing an existing foresight unit is seeking input to its consultation on the second SOIF helps you to think differently – and confidently • Integrating foresight with an existing business round of the Strategic Review process “The EU in a – about the future. process, e.g. strategy development, risk changing global environment.” The key to confident decision-making and management successful strategy is the ability to imagine and plan Our clients for different future scenarios. Our bespoke training, retreats, coaching and advisory services help you to Arts Council England, Bond, Swedish Defence create a bright future for your organisation. University (FHS), Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), Graduate Institute Geneva (HEID), Stiftung We advocate for the value of thinking about the Neue Verantwortung Berlin (SNV), S. Korea Science future, and support our network with examples of and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI), UN-Habitat, success and good practice. We build capability by World Vision International providing support and advice on designing future- ready organisations. We help build coalitions for Annual flagship retreats future change through our networks and retreats. Five-day, held every August, in UK At SOIF retreats and courses, you join a global Sectoral retreats network of foresight professionals who imagine the future together. You receive advice and insights Three- to five-day, recently held for humanitarian from world experts who have already used foresight sector in Geneva to make a difference in the world and gain the skills Regional retreats to plan a future of prosperity, security and wellbeing for your organisation. Three- to five-day, SOIF Asia Pacific held 2014 in Hawaii. Plans for regional retreats to be held in Africa and India 4 5 2015 2015 Monday 10 August Tuesday 11 August Day 1 0730-0830 Breakfast 1300 – 1430 Participants arrive, check-in and buffet lunch available 0700-0745 Yoga session (Garden or James Wyatt room) 1500 – 1600 1. Welcome and introductions Day 2: Stages I to II SOIF was set up to build the capacity of policy-makers, business leaders, international Scoping to Ordering organisations and civil society to use and gain value from strategic foresight and to What the policy maker needs – how foresight can meet that need – principles of futures create better futures. thinking and drivers of change – participants’ experiences. Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 0900-0925 5. Starting the Learning journey Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1600-1700 2. Setting the Scene: “Views on the Future” 0925-1045 6. The policy client’s perspective (panel session) Winfried Veit Scenario planning consultant; Lecturer, European Foreign and Security Decision-makers and senior researchers from government, civil society and the private Policy, University of Freiburg and EU Center of IES. sector discuss the relationship between strategic foresight and policy, and their experience of commissioning futures work. Slim Amamou Founder, Pirate Party, Tunisia Michael Denison Group Political Adviser, BP plc Chaired by: Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Heather Grabbe Director, Open Society European Policy Institute 1700-1730 Tea/Coffee János Zlinszky Director, Sustainable Development Academy, Szentendre, Hungary; 1730-1800 3. Introduction to foresight, the SOIF Learning Journey and principles for thinking about Associate Professor, Department for Environmental Law and Competition Law, Peter the future Pazmany Catholic University, Budapest, Hungary Indra Adnan Director, Soft Power Network; Co-founder, The Downing Street Project Chaired by: Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London 1045-1115 Tea/Coffee 1815-1900 4. Introducing the Live Challenge 1115-1300 7. Introduction to scoping. Scoping the Live Challenge, including feedback We present the important foreign policy issue brought to us by our “client” and consider Outlining the purpose of the scoping stage, exercise in breakout groups and how to frame it as a foresight question that we can address over the next four days. report back. Alun Rhydderch Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Group exercise: Scoping note. Alfredo Conte Head of Strategic Planning Division, European External Action Service Cat Tully Co-Founder, School of International Futures, London Respondents: 1300 Conference photograph Tomas Ries Senior Lecturer, Security and Strategy, National Defence College, Stockholm 1315 Lunch followed by tea/coffee Andrey Kortunov Director General, Russian International Affairs Council 1445-1530 8.