Helbig 1 Robert Helbig NATO-Brazil relations: Limits of a partnership policy Professor Michelle Egan, School of International Service University Honors in International Studies Fall 2012 Helbig 2 Abstract The purpose of this capstone project is to assess the potential of a partnership between NATO and Brazil, based on interviews with over twenty high-level experts on Brazilian foreign policy and the application of international relations theory. Because building international partnership has become a vital task of NATO and Brazil is trying to increase its influence in global politics, senior NATO officials have called for the Alliance to reach out to Brazil. The paper argues that Brazil, as a regional middle power, has taken on a soft-balancing approach towards the US, thereby following adversary strategies to NATO, including global governance reform and South- South cooperation. The theoretical debate on alliance formation and international regimes leads to the conclusion that NATO is unlikely to succeed in reaching out to Brazil, which is why NATO should develop different approaches of increasing its influence in South America and the South Atlantic. Helbig 3 Outline I. Introduction II. Brazil as an actor in international relations II.I. Brazil’s mindset III.II. Global aspirations vs. regional supremacy II.III. Bilateralism, multilateralism and global governance geform II.IV. Brazil’s role on the global stage II.V. Brazil’s stance on the United States – From Rio Branco to soft-balancing II.VI. Brazil’s stance on nuclear proliferation – an example of opposing the established world order II.VII. Brazilian security – the green and the blue Amazon II.IIX. Upgrading Brazilian military forces II.IX. NATO in the light of Brazilian foreign and security policy II.X. Opposing NATO in practice – the case of Libya III. NATO’s Partnership Policy IV. Theory of NATO-Brazil relations IV.I. Classical and Structural Realism IV.II. Liberalism IV.III. Constructivism IV.IV. Assessing the potential of a partnership based on theory V. Policy of NATO-Brazil relations V.I. NATO’s three main challenges in reaching out to Brazil V.II. Possible Cooperative Initiatives VI. Beyond Brazil: Possible alternatives to gaining a foothold in South America and the South Atlantic VI.I. NATO reaching out to Unasur VI.II. NATO reaching out to IBSA VI.III. Encouraging a South Atlantic Treaty Organization VI.IV. NATO reaching out to other South American states VI.V. Redefining the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance VI.VI. Just let the Europeans do it alone VII. Conclusion Annex Bibliography Helbig 4 I. Introduction After NATO’s April 2012 Chicago Summit, the organization declared that “NATO is committed to building cooperative security with partners – finding global solutions to deal with global problems.”1 Secretary General Rasmussen proclaimed that “there is great potential to enhance [NATO’s] political dialogue and [...] practical cooperation.” At the same time as NATO seeks new partnerships outside the North Atlantic region, rising powers like Brazil try to establish themselves in international organizations and take on new responsibilities as part of gaining more influence in international relations. This is why some have called for NATO to reach out to Brazil, such as Admiral James Stavridis, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.2 While this is a possibility, NATO’s outreach is limited by the potential partner’s foreign policy strategy. Brazil has increasingly manifested its position as a leader in South America and among developing countries, thereby shown ambivalence towards Western institutions. However, the country adheres to the democratic principles which NATO stands for, making Brazil a great fit in the eyes of NATO policymakers who seek to expand the Alliance’s reach internationally. Is a partnership between the NATO and Brazil possible on these grounds? Which factors of Brazil’s rising power strategy limit an alliance formation with NATO? Given NATO’s grand strategy to increase its influence in international security, is it worth for Brussels to reach out to Brasília? 1 NATO. “NATO Chicago Summit meets its goals.” May 21, 2012 http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_87603.htm (accessed October 16, 2012). 2 “Worth exploring NATO partnership with India: Pentagon” The Hindu March 2, 2012 http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2953264.ece (accessed October 16, 2012). Helbig 5 In the following paper, I will assess the potential of a partnership between NATO and Brazil. My results are based on interviews with experts on Brazilian foreign policy and NATO, including former and current Brazilian foreign policymakers. My conclusions are confirmed by drawing on international relations theory. The paper is structured as follows: After the Introduction, Section II gives a detailed analysis of Brazil as an actor in international relations based; Section III touches upon current developments of NATO partnership policies; Section IV looks at NATO-Brazil relations from a theoretical perspective; Section V assess the potential of a partnership between NATO and Brazil from a policy perspective; Section VI provides further alternatives for NATO to enter South America and/or the South Atlantic. The paper concludes that NATO is unlikely to succeed in reaching out to Brazil because Brasília engages in soft- balancing against the US, NATO’s leading member state. Brazil’s foreign policymakers envision a world order different of that for which NATO stands for and the actors share too little security concerns in order to overcome their competing strategies and form an alliance. This is why NATO is well served to consider different approaches to gain a foothold in South America and the South Atlantic. II. Brazil as an actor in international relations II.I. Brazil’s mindset In order to understand the context of NATO-Brazil relations, it is worth exploring Brazilian foreign and security policy. Brazil is set to become the world’s 5th largest economy. Even though the economic growth slew down to less than two percent in 2012, Brasília can point to numerous achievements over the past years, such as lifting up over 30 million people Helbig 6 into the middle class just between 2003 and 1010. As Helga Jung of Allianz points out, Brazil is young and dynamic with half of its almost 200 million citizens is in the years between 15 and 64.3 Brazil, traditionally known for its biodiversity and commodity exports, expanded its financial and diversified its service sector. The country invests massively into research and development as it is trying to tap the newly discovered oil reserves under the 2000-meter-thick pre-salt layer under the bottom of the ocean off the coast of Rio de Janeiro which is likely to establish Brazil as one of the main global oil producers. Although the country still fights with corruption, drug trafficking and social disparity, Brazil is arguably better off than the other BRICS4, a category of emerging economies which Brazil is often being affiliated with. This is why Brazil wants to step up to the top of global governance to reform the current world order. With this goal in mind, Brasília has adapted a more assertive foreign policy which is likely to result in diplomatic differences with Europe and the US. What is unclear, however, is where Brazil will shift its foreign policy focus in the future. II.II. Global aspirations vs. regional supremacy Many scholars point out the Brazil is the leading actor in South America and a force for regional integration.5 With over half the continent’s population and GDP, Brazil takes on a 3 Jung, Helga. “Brasilien kann noch viel mehr.” Financial Times Deutschland October 22, 2012 http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:gastkommentar-von-helga-jung-brasilien-kann-noch-viel- mehr/70107937.html (accessed October 26, 2012). 4 A group of emerging countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa 5 Puntigliano, Andrés Rivarola. “Going Global’: An Organizational Study of Brazilian Foreign Policy” Rev. Bras. Polít. Int. Vol. 51, No. 1 (2008), 28-52 http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0034- 73292008000100002&script=sci_abstract (accessed November 14, 2010), 29; Amorim, Celso. Brazilian Foreign Policy under President Lula (2003-2010): an overview” Rev. Bras. Polít. Int. Vol. 53, Special Edition (2010), 214-240 http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0034-73292010000300013&script=sci_arttext (accessed November 14, 2010), 227; Saraiva, Miriam Gomes. “Brazilian foreign policy towards South America during the Lula Administration: caught between South America and Mercosur.” Rev. Bras. Polít. Int. Vol. 53, Special Edition (2010), Helbig 7 natural leadership position in South America. This is why Brasília emphasizes the importance of regional multilateral bodies. Brazil is member of Mercosul6, a regional free trade agreement between Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. Today, Mercosul is a full customs union headquartered in Brazil’s financial center São Paulo. Brazil has also been a driving force of Unasur, established in 2008 with the goal of regional political integration and coordination with similar aspirations as the European Union. Thereby, Brasília has shown genuine leadership in South America. By working closer with its neighbors, Brazil can increase its strength and influence in global affairs.7 However, Brasília does not want to be perceived as a regional hegemon in a traditional sense. Sean W. Burges relates Brazil’s role to his concept of consensual hegemony. Without using force, Brasília leads the subordinate South American states through dialogue, interaction and consensus-building to approve Brazil’s hegemony. Thereby, Brazil exerts hegemony through cooperation and coordination. Referring to the country’s post-Cold War strategy, Brazil uses the collective strength of South American states to advance its national influence on global stage.8 In addition to its regional engagement, Brasília has expanded its focus internationally. It was under President Henrique Cardoso when Brazil changed its basic strategic model to establish Brazil as a medium power with great power aspirations.