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European Commission Studies and Pilot Projects For European Commission Studies and Pilot Projects for Carrying Out the Common Fisheries Policy No FISH/2007/07 Lot 5 Survey of existing bio-economic models Submitted by February 2008 Contents Technical Tender Form (‘Annex 2’ to the Tendering Specifications). Checklist and Questionnaire for the identification of the tenderer (‘Annex 3’ to the Tendering Specifications). 1. Background and appreciation of the project …………………………………… 1.1. Bio-economic models.................................................................................6 1.2. Key issues in bio-economic models .........................................................7 1.3. The need for review of models...................................................................8 2. Proposed Project Team 2.1. AZTI-Tecnalia...............................................................................................9 2.2. CEFAS ..........................................................................................................9 2.3. DTU-Aqua...................................................................................................10 2.4. FOI ..............................................................................................................10 2.5. IMARES ......................................................................................................11 2.6. IREPA .........................................................................................................11 2.7. LEI...............................................................................................................12 2.8. Expert Panel...............................................................................................12 3. Approach and Methodology………………………………………………………… 3.1. Phase 1: Project Inception .......................................................................14 3.2. Phase 2: Analysis......................................................................................15 3.3. Phase 3: Reporting....................................................................................19 3.4. Consortium task responsibilities.............................................................19 3.5. Travel and Visits........................................................................................20 3.6. Work Plan...................................................................................................20 4. Consortium Experience 4.1. AZTI-Tecnalia.............................................................................................21 4.2. CEFAS ........................................................................................................22 4.3. DTU-Aqua...................................................................................................23 4.4. FOI ..............................................................................................................25 4.5. IMARES ......................................................................................................25 4.6. IREPA .........................................................................................................27 4.7. LEI...............................................................................................................28 4.8. Experience, qualifications and professional experience of the candidate’s full-time personnel...........................................................................29 AZTI-Tecnalia ConsortiumTender: FISH/2007/07 – Lot 5: Survey of Existing Bio-economic Models Page ii 5. Consortium and Project Management Arrangements 6. Quality Control and Quality Assurance 6.1. Measures to ensure quality of outputs ...................................................33 6.2. Possible risks to progress and envisaged solutions ............................33 AZTI-Tecnalia ConsortiumTender: FISH/2007/07 – Lot 5: Survey of Existing Bio-economic Models Page iii Technical Tender Form (‘Annex 2’ to the Tendering Specifications) AZTI-Tecnalia ConsortiumTender: FISH/2007/07 – Lot 5: Survey of Existing Bio-economic Models Page iv Checklist and Questionnaire for the identification of the tenderer (‘Annex 3’ to the Tendering Specifications) AZTI-Tecnalia ConsortiumTender: FISH/2007/07 – Lot 5: Survey of Existing Bio-economic Models Page v 1. Background and appreciation of the project There is a growing interest in using bio-economic models as a tool for policy analysis to better understand pathways of development and to assess the impact of alternative policies on the natural resource base and human welfare. One of the potential benefits of these models is that one can get a better and more comprehensive indication of the feedback effects between human activity and natural resources. Modern computer power permits development of complex models far beyond what was possible only a few years ago. It has therefore become possible to make models that are theoretically more consistent and empirically more accurate. In fisheries there is an extensive range of models that fit with the target of providing a comprehensive impact assessment of different management alternatives as asked by the Common Fishery Policy (CFP) (Council Regulation 2371/20021), even if each one has particularities that make which one is the best for a certain assessment difficult choice. It is in this context that DG Fisheries launched the Open Call for Tenders Reference NoFISH /2007/07, Studies and Pilot Projects for carrying out the common fisheries policy Lot 5: Survey of existing bio-economic models. The Consortium we have put together specifically responds to the requirements of this Lot by providing world-class expertise on bio-economic models, together with in-depth knowledge of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and the Data Collection Regulation (DCR)2. 1.1. Bio-economic models A conceptual model is a theoretical construct that represents a system, with a set of variables and a set of logical and quantitative relationships between them. They are constructed to enable reasoning within an idealized logical framework about these processes. With this definition in mind it can be stated that there is a considerable list of bio-economic models for evaluating the biological and economic repercussions, alternative management possibilities for achieving the recovery and/or the sustainable management of the stocks. Bio-economic models are constructed using the mathematical language3 as they are numerical representations of the systems to be modelled. They should be designed as an overview of a system that takes into account all the existing knowledge in a usable form. The construction of the models requires the selection of a platform, the model programming language, and the set of biological and economic relationships that need to be explicitly included. The selection of the platform is a key issue in bio-economic modeling. Open/closed source, commercial or freeware software, and the widespread use of it, may create barriers for the development or for the use of them. It is important also to remark that the selection of the platform conditions the interface of the model, which in the end affects the use of it. The mathematical language is not as determining as the platform, beyond the existing linkage between them. In any case the programming language can create some advantages or restrictions for setting up some of the underlying biological and economic models. 1 Council Regulation (EC) No 2371/2002 of 20 December 2002 on the conservation and sustainable exploitation of fisheries resources under the Common Fisheries Policy - OJ L 358, 31.12.2002. 2 Council Regulation (EC) No 1543/2000 of 29 June 2000 establishing a Community framework collection and management of the data needed to conduct the common fisheries policy. 3 In any case statistical modelling is normally a requirement for feeding these mathematical models. AZTI-Tecnalia ConsortiumTender: FISH/2007/07 – Lot 5: Survey of Existing Bio-economic Models Page 6 In recent years modeling frameworks have been created, merging the platform, programming languages as well as sets of biological and economic models. This has increased the integration between the biological and the economic components. 1.2. Key issues in bio-economic models Whatever platform, language, model(s) or framework that is used, idealized in this context stands for the use of explicit assumptions that are known to be false (or incomplete) in some detail. Such assumptions may be justified on the grounds that they simplify the model while, at the same time, allowing the production of acceptably accurate solutions. There is a trade off between a model’s predictive capability and its complexity (Costanza and Sklar 19854). The main distinction that is applicable to fisheries bio-economic models is their orientation in terms of if they are Output driven, Input driven or Optimization models. Output driven models are applicable for fisheries managed with quotas while input driven models are applicable to fisheries managed with effort restrictions. Finally Optimization models are applicable for both input and output restrictions and produce solutions for pre-defined objectives (e.g. maximum employment or maximum profit). Underlying biological and economic models are a key issue since they have an impact on the capacity of describing the system and also on the overall advice that can be given. In fact the flexibility of the approach taken to deal with different models is also a key issue. This flexibility provides a way of dealing with more sophisticated and/or a more
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