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Economic Impacts of Global Warming a Study of the Fishing Industry in North Norway

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Economic Impacts of Global Warming a Study of the Fishing Industry in North Norway Fisheries Research 56 (2002) 261–274 Economic impacts of global warming A study of the fishing industry in North Norway Arne Eide*, Knut Heen1 The Norwegian College of Fishery Science, University of Tromsø, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway Received 29 June 2000; received in revised form 27 March 2001; accepted 14 June 2001 Abstract Several studies have been carried out on the possible physical and biological effects of global warming in the Barents Sea area. Based on these studies this paper discusses the effects global warming may have on the Barents Sea fisheries and the implications for the North Norwegian economy. The first has been studied using the multispecies, multifleet model ECONMULT, and the latter by applying an Input–Output model. A range of possible environmental scenarios based on the physical and biological studies of the effects of global warming has been examined. Both positive and negative biological growth effects have been considered, changing the current growth rates by Æ25%. A more narrow range of management regimes has been applied, reflecting the current management rules and fishery policy in the region. The paper analyses the potential of global warming for changing the catches, profitability, employment impacts and income generation by the Barents Sea fisheries. # 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Global warming; Fisheries management; Economic impact; North Norwegian fisheries; ECONMULT 1. Introduction assuming that natural climate variability and the structure and strength of ocean currents remain about This paper discusses some possible economic the same. The positive effects of warming, such as effects of global warming on the fish resources in longer growing seasons, lower natural winter mortal- the Barents Sea and the implications for the North ity, and faster growth rates in higher latitudes, may be Norwegian economy. The analyses are carried out offset by negative factors such as changes in estab- applying the ECONSIMP2 simulation model (Eide lished reproductive patterns, migration routes, and and Flaaten, 1998) and the Input–Output model of the ecosystem relationships. Furthermore, there could North Norwegian economy (Heen and Aanesen, 1993). be regional differences within the mid/higher latitudes In their second assessment the Intergovernmental particularly due to changes in ocean currents. In Panel on Climate Change (Everett, 1997) suggest warmer areas negative factors may include increased that high-latitude production is likely to increase, summer anoxia, increased demand for food to support higher metabolism and reduced thermal habitat for cold water species. * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ47-77-64-55-83; Øiestad (1990) studied the possible effect of global fax: þ47-77-64-60-21. E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Eide). warming on the Barents Sea system, while the impact 1 Senior authorship is not assigned. Authors are listed alphabe- of natural (year-to-year) fluctuation in sea temperature tically. on fish populations has been the focus of a number of 0165-7836/02/$ – see front matter # 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0165-7836(01)00324-1 262 A. Eide, K. Heen / Fisheries Research 56 (2002) 261–274 studies (Sætersdal and Loeng, 1987; Loeng et al., 1995; Newton, 1997). Human activities might have a more Ottersen, 1996; Ottersen et al., 1998; Ottersen and immediate impact on the fish stocks and productions Loeng, 2000). In addition to the overall consensus that than climate change. To be able to isolate the effects higher temperature is beneficial to the stocks, a critical of global warming, a bioeconomic model is applied issue has been the close link between the main water to predict future stock production and catches under currents and the sea temperature in the region. In various management regimes, initially without cli- particular, an increased winter inflow of warm Atlantic mate change (baseline scenario), thereafter with cli- water along the north European continent into the mate change. The baseline scenarios differ greatly Barents Seawouldleadtoincreasedwatertemperatures. depending on the management regime applied. The Barents Sea is a particularly interesting areawith Attention is focused on the consequences of global respect to research on the impact of global warming. warming for selected policy goals including stock The Barents Sea fisheries are among the most pro- conservation, profitability, employment and income ductive in the world, and an increase in temperatures generation, though it is beyond the scope of this paper in the Arctic is expected to be significantly higher than to consider possible trade-off between different goals the predicted average global temperature increases of in relation to the global warming scenarios (Leung 0.5–2.0 8C over the next 50 years. Estimates as high as et al., 2001). of þ5 8C for the Barents Sea are found in the literature (Ottersen et al., 1998). North Norway includes the three most northern counties of Norway (Nordland, 2. The fisheries of the Barents Sea Troms and Finnmark). The North Norwegian econ- omy is highly dependent on fish resource utilisation 2.1. The ecosystem (Heen, 1989). In terms of both regional product and employment, the fishing industry counts for about The Barents Sea (Fig. 1) contains some of the most 8%. The fishing industry’s contribution to the North abundant fish resources in the world. Plankton forms Norwegian economy is however substantially higher the basis of the biological production system, with sea if the indirect effects of the industry are included mammals at the top of the biological hierarchy, prey- (Heen and Aanesen, 1993). ing both on cod, pelagic fish and shrimp, while cod The scenarios in this paper include both physical prey on pelagic fish and shrimp. Our focus is on that and biological processes as agents for change. The part of the ecosystem defined by the cod and pelagic physical processes include changes in air temperature fish stocks and on the vessel groups and processing that influence the water temperature. An increase in sector associated with those species: together they the air temperature in the Arctic region of 5 8C would form the most important components of the Barents increase the water temperature by 1–2 8C, and these Sea ecosystem and regional economy. physical processes may further influence the patterns The main commercial species of the Barents Sea of sea currents. The biological processes relate to ecosystem are the north-east Arctic cod (Gadus mor- spawning, individual growth rates, migration, recruit- hua L.) and capelin (Mallotus villosus L.). A third ment and overall distribution of the species. To cover species, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea the most probable effects, a range of scenarios based harengus L.), may also play an important role. Herring on results from a global circulation model has been is normally located in the Norwegian Sea, south-west considered to predict temperature changes caused by of the Barents Sea, but in some years young herring global warming processes. The scenarios include move into the Barents Sea and remain there for 3 years growth changes of some key species and changes in before migrating southward. migration pattern: they cover both increases and de- The most important pelagic fisheries off the coast of creases in biological growth rates, since either colder North Norway are herring and capelin. After the or warmer environment in the Barents Sea could be the capelin stock collapsed in the mid 1980s, this stock consequence of global warming. has been protected in the Barents Sea. The spawning The fishing industry in most countries is charac- stock remains below the critical level agreed upon by terised by overcapacity and overfishing (Garcia and Russia and Norway for allowing the setting of catch A. Eide, K. Heen / Fisheries Research 56 (2002) 261–274 263 Fig. 1. The Barents Sea covers the shallow water basin bounded by the ice shelf in the north-east, Svalbard in north-west, the Norwegian coastline and the Norwegian Sea in south-west and west and Novaja Zemlja and the Russian coastline in south-east and east. quotas through the actions of the joint Russian– These groups are compatible with the vessel groups Norwegian Fishery Commission which meets an- in the profitability study made by the Directorate nually to decide total allowable catches (TACs) for of Fisheries in Norway, which is the main source the three shared stocks: cod, haddock and capelin. The of data for the fish-harvesting sectors in the I–O herring fishery takes place mainly in the Norwegian table. Sea. As a result the cod fisheries dominate the eco- The small-scale vessels and the coastal fleet have a nomic exploitation of the Barents Sea ecosystem, and delivery pattern that is very different from that of the the economic impacts of global warming on the region trawlers. They depend basically on fish taken in the are therefore assessed for different management coastal waters and use mainly passive gears (gillnets, regimes of the cod fisheries only. hand and long lines) and less commonly purse and Danish seines, with each trip lasting from one to a 2.2. The fleet few days. The trawlers, on the other hand, fish the offshore waters and are normally at sea from 1 week The fleet fishing for cod consists of a number of (fresh fish trawlers) to several months (industrial different vessel groups that vary in size, gear use, and trawlers). handling of the fish, and so influence the composition and the quality of the fish landed. In the ECONMULT 2.3. The fish processing industry model the cod fishing fleet consists of 24 groups using six different types of gears. In the I–O model the fishing The catches are destined for the following: fleet have been aggregated into three vessel groups: traditional products (salted and dried fish); small-scale vessels (<13 m); frozen products (frozen fillets with varying degree coastal fleet except trawlers (>13 m); of processing); trawlers.
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