International Journal of Environmental Science & Technology Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 233-245, Autumn 2004 Review Paper Iran’s energy policy: Current dilemmas and perspective for a sustainable energy policy *M. Massarrat Faculty of Social Science, University of Osnabruck, 49069 Osnabruck, Germany Abstract Iran is facing large challenges in the area of energy policy. In order to illuminate these challenges and the problems and possibilities, which are present, firstly, the current energy consumption patterns have been analyzed in Iran as well as the energy policy of the Iranian government. Based on this analysis, the alternative concepts have been then formulated for Iran’s future energy. The increase in energy usage in Iran is distinctly out of proportion with the development of economic productivity. Negative structural characteristics of this system are: first, an above average energy intensity; second, an increase in energy consumption in the traffic sector; third, a high growth rate in usage of electric energy; and lastly, an above-average amount of stress to the environment. Traditionally, Iran’s energy policy has focused on satisfying the growing demand for energy by oil and, in the last fifteen years, by successively expanding natural gas. However, the further development of the natural gas supply only makes sense within the context of a holistic energy policy, which takes into account the principles of sustainable development. In the short term, such a policy would take advantage of both considerable energy saving techniques, as well as potential renewable energy sources. In the long term, such a policy would strive for the complete transfer to renewable energy sources and technology. Keywords: Uncontrolled energy consumption, holistic and sustainable energy policy, energy consumption patterns *Corresponding Author, E-mail: [email protected] Introduction This paper deals less with examining the trends sustainable solutions were also provided. related to Iran’s general energy supply Energy consumption in Iran has risen almost according to the production and consumption eight-fold over the past thirty years, from of various types of energy in a variety of around 90 million barrels oil equivalent (mboe) sectors. Instead, it shall focus on presenting a in 1971 to over 700 mboe in 2001. In the same critical analysis of the specific features of the period, the annual energy consumption growth energy consumption pattern in Iran and on rate was estimated to be 7.8% (Assali, 2003). disclosing the potential far-reaching structural This rapid increase in consumption is by no problems for the future. Whilst, the empirical means the result of an ongoing data that has now been made available does not industrialization process and an increase in the suffice for the purposes of making detailed performance of Iran’s economy. This trend appraisals, it nevertheless provides a solid rather reflects two intensifying structural foundation for describing the energy political problems: Firstly, the level of energy fundamental structures prevalent in the consumption in non-productive sectors has country. At the Fourth National Energy rocketed. Secondly, the energy intensity in Congress, which was held in Tehran, on May every social sector has spited the global trend 2003, international and Iranian scientists and risen dramatically. Both of these discussed and evaluated some important peculiarities will be discussed in greater outcomes of the Congress. Some of the most details. As it is indicated in Table 1, in a 25- energy policies and dilemmas of Iran were year period, the rise in the consumption of outline and discussed. As the results of the energy in households and commerce amounted Congress, general views of energy policy and to 558%; in the transportation sector it was the main problems of energy productivity and 353%; in industry 385%, and in the application were analyzed. Some long-term agricultural sector, where the level is M. Massarrat extremely low, it was 254%. There is also clear significantly faster than the gross domestic evidence of a shift in energy consumption from product. Figure 2 exemplifies this negative the productive sectors of industry and feature in Iran’s energy consumption pattern. agriculture to the non-productive sectors of This implies that Iran has a considerable households and commerce as well as energy savings capacity potential and that, if transportation. In 2000, the share of these such energy services as light, heat, and power sectors in energy consumption amounted to were to be made available to the consumers, in 62.8% and was therefore significantly greater principle a fraction of the currently used than the 39.3% recorded in 1976. Iran’s energy primary energy would suffice. If the present consumption pattern is unquestionably energy intensity were to be lowered to its level unsustainable and typical of consumption- of 1976, for example, the current primary oriented, highly populated, oil-producing energy demand could be reduced by two thirds countries with low productivity. Figure 1 without less useful energy being available to illustrates that, in the time from 1986−1995, the consumers as a result. However, since it is productivity in Iranian industries and the highly likely that Iran did not make optimum country’s entire economy only grew slightly, use of its primary energy in 1976, it would not whilst the primary energy consumption soared. be too unrealistic to presume that only a sixth A typical feature of this non-sustainable energy or an eighth of the primary energy utilized in consumption pattern is the extreme 2001 would have sufficed to make the actually inefficiency in terms of energy utilization. used energy services available: 84−88% less Whilst, the energy intensity (energy primary energy without a loss in prosperity. consumption in monetary value/gross domestic product =GDP) has fallen significantly over Methodology the past 3 decades worldwide, in the years The method of this study is on energy policy between 1981 and 2000, for example, by and its focuses in Iran is practical assessment 93.6% in Japan; 64.2% in China; 63.3% in in the historical dimensions and processes of France; and even 27.8% in the USA and it rose energy productivity and application with dramatically in Iran: in the years between emphasis on the source types and energy 1976-2001 from approximately 5% to 14%, i.e. application.Analysis of the energy problems by 280% (Omidkhan, 2003). Whilst, energy and challenges of energy production and consumption worldwide has since consumption has been performed as bolistic detached itself from economic growth and is and sustainable energy development views. growing at a slower rate than the economy, energy consumption in Iran is rising Table 1: Structural changes in Iran's energy consumption (IIES, 2001) Final Energy 1976 1991 2000 Consumption/ Year mboe* % mboe % mboe % Households and 50.570 20.7 134.400 30.9 282.360 40.0 Commerce Industry 49.400 20.2 125.600 28.9 190.320 27.0 Transportation 45.400 18.6 102.400 23.6 160.510 22.8 Agriculture 9.760 4.0 31.350 7.2 24.820 3.5 Others 89.300** 36.5 40.850 9.4 47.270 6.7 Total 244.430 100.0 434.600 100.0 705.280 100.0 * mboe = million barrels oil equivalent ** The sources do not reveal details of the exact composition of this category. It is most likely that the countries own consumption was initially allocated to this category and subsequently to the industrial sector. Accordingly, industry in 1976 should be apportioned a significantly higher percentage. This means that the shift in consumption from industry to households and commerce was even greater than the table would suggest. 234 Iran's energy policy:… % 250 200 150 100 50 0 1986 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 1995 Industry National primary energy consumption Figure 1: Development of work productivity and the primary energy consumption in Iran (CII, 2002) % 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 280.0 0.0 -93.6 -64.2 -63.3 -27.8 -50.0 -100.0 -150.0 Figure 2: Development of energy intensity (Omidkhah, 2003) Expanding transportation sector them can only be changed long-term and at Iran’s energy consumption in the sectors of considerable cost to the national economy; households and commerce as well as in secondly, because the transportation sector in transportation has risen to an over proportional Iran is the main cause of environmental degree. Whilst the percentage of energy damage, above all in the conurbations; and, consumed by the transportation sector is thirdly, because the transportation sector is the significantly lower than that of households and largest oil consumption sector, accounting for commerce, the transportation sector is of key approximately 40% (compared to industry with importance to Iran’s current and future energy 15%) and therefore impacts Iran’s oil export policy on account of the following three capacity and the oil revenue, a source of reasons: firstly, because transportation systems fundamental importance to the national budget, are very cumbersome and structures related to in proportion to the expansion of the 235 M. Massarrat transportation sector. At the same time, both Electrical energy with especially high growth the transportation sector and its energy rates consumption have indeed expanded. In 1967, Between 1967 and 2000, the consumption energy consumption in this sector amounted to of electricity in Iran rose from 2,220 GWh to 12.5 mboe in total (16.8% of the final energy approximately 100,000 GWh, thereby consumption), (Assali, 2003). As it is indicated increasing about 45-fold (MOE, 2002). To in Table 1, it amounted to 45.40 mboe (18%) achieve this, power plant capacity was hastily in 1976; 102.40 mboe (23.6%) in 1991, and extended from approximately 1,000 MW to 16,051 mboe (22.8%) in 2001.