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The Netherlands Draft Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030 The Netherlands 1 Acknowledgements Date: 6 November 2018 Version: 0.1 2 Contents PART A NATIONAL PLAN .......................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 1. Overview and process for establishing the plan ................................................................... 6 1.1 Executive summary ................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Overview of the current policy context ..................................................................................... 9 1.3 Consultation and involvement of stakeholders ...................................................................... 18 1.4 Regional cooperation in the drafting of the plan .................................................................... 20 Chapter 2. National objectives and targets ........................................................................................... 21 2.1 Dimension decarbonisation ......................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and removals ............................................................................ 21 2.1.2 Renewable energy ................................................................................................................ 23 2.2 Energy efficiency dimension ........................................................................................................ 26 2.3 Energy security dimension .......................................................................................................... 28 2.4 Internal energy market dimension .............................................................................................. 31 2.4.1 Electricity interconnectivity .................................................................................................. 31 2.4.2 Energy transmission infrastructure ...................................................................................... 31 2.4.3 Market integration ............................................................................................................... 32 2.4.4 Energy poverty ..................................................................................................................... 34 2.5 Research, innovation and competitiveness dimension ............................................................... 35 Chapter 3. Policies and measures ......................................................................................................... 37 3.1 Decarbonisation dimension ......................................................................................................... 37 3.1.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and removals ............................................................................ 37 3.1.2 Renewable energy ................................................................................................................ 38 3.1.3 Other elements of the dimension ........................................................................................ 42 3.2 Energy efficiency dimension ........................................................................................................ 44 3.3 Energy security dimension .......................................................................................................... 46 3.4 Internal energy market dimension .............................................................................................. 48 3.4.1 Electricity infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 48 3.4.2 Energy transmission infrastructure ...................................................................................... 48 3.4.3 Market integration ............................................................................................................... 49 3.4.4 Energy poverty ..................................................................................................................... 52 3.5 Research, innovation and competitiveness dimension ............................................................... 53 PART B ANALYTICAL BASIS..................................................................................................................... 59 Chapter 4. Current situation and projections with existing policies and measures ............................. 59 4. 1 Factors that influence the energy system and emission of greenhouse gases .......................... 60 i. Macro-economic projections...................................................................................................... 60 ii. Sectorial changes ....................................................................................................................... 62 3 iii. Global energy trends, international fossil fuel prices, the EU-ETS carbon price ...................... 64 iv. Development of technology costs ............................................................................................ 69 4.2 Decarbonisation dimension ......................................................................................................... 71 4.2.1 Trends and projections for emissions and removals of greenhouse gases .......................... 71 4.2.2 Trends and projection for renewable energy ....................................................................... 78 4.3 Energy efficiency dimension ........................................................................................................ 82 4.3.1 Historical development of energy consumption .................................................................. 82 4.3.2 Forecast for energy consumption ........................................................................................ 84 4.3.3 Developments and potential from combined heat and power and district heating and district cooling ............................................................................................................................... 85 4.3.4 Development of energy performance standards in the built environment ......................... 87 4.4 Energy security dimension .......................................................................................................... 89 4.4.1 Natural gas security of supply .............................................................................................. 89 4.4.2 Security of supply of coal...................................................................................................... 90 4.4.3 Security of supply of crude oil .............................................................................................. 90 4.4.4 Security of supply of electricity ............................................................................................ 91 4.5 Internal energy market dimension .............................................................................................. 93 4.5.1 Electricity interconnectivity .................................................................................................. 93 4.5.2 Energy transmission infrastructure ...................................................................................... 95 4.5.3 Electricity and gas markets, energy prices ........................................................................... 97 4.6 Research, innovation and competitiveness dimension ............................................................. 103 4.6.1 Current energy innovation policy ....................................................................................... 103 4.6.2 Trends in the low-carbon technology sector ...................................................................... 104 4.6.3 Trends in spending, research and innovation with regard to low-carbon technologies ... 107 4.6.4 Structure of current energy prices and subsidies for fossil fuels and other energy .......... 110 Chapter 5 Impact assessment of planned policies and measures ...................................................... 113 Annex 1: Sources ............................................................................................................................ 114 Annex 2 a: Reporting of used parameters and variables (separate document) Annex 2 b: Reporting on GHG projections (separate document) 4 5 PART A NATIONAL PLAN Chapter 1. Overview and process for establishing the plan 1.1 Executive summary i. Political, economic and social context Summary of political and policy context The Netherlands wishes to make a substantial contribution to the Paris Agreement, so we will be taking measures that prepare us for a 49% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990. At a European level, we are calling for a reduction in emissions of 55% by 2030. One of the commitments in the Coalition Agreement 2017 was the realisation of a Climate Agreement that is to mark the next step, following the Energy Agreement that was realised in 2013, towards a climate-neutral society and a reliable, affordable, safe and low-carbon energy supply by 2050. In the Climate Agreement, the national government wishes to make commitments with local and regional authorities, businesses, nature and environmental organisations, trade unions and other social stakeholders with regard to the measures that are required to achieve a 49% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and put
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