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Asia/World Energy Outlook ― Focusing on ASEAN Economies Towards Market Integration ― ＊ ＊ ＊ ＊ ＊ Zheng LU Shigeru SUEHIRO Yuji MATSUO Yukari YAMASHITA Kokichi ITO

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Asia/World Energy Outlook ― Focusing on ASEAN Economies Towards Market Integration ― ＊ ＊ ＊ ＊ ＊ Zheng LU Shigeru SUEHIRO Yuji MATSUO Yukari YAMASHITA Kokichi ITO IEEJ：May 2017 © IEEJ2017 Asia/World Energy Outlook ― Focusing on ASEAN Economies towards Market Integration ― ＊ ＊ ＊ ＊ ＊ Zheng LU Shigeru SUEHIRO Yuji MATSUO Yukari YAMASHITA Kokichi ITO This paper presents the major results of a long-term outlook of energy supply and demand, and CO2 emissions for Asia and the world, especially the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The world’s primary energy consumption will reach 18.9 Gtoe (billion tons of oil equivalent) in 2040, up 40% from 2014. During the same period, ASEAN’s primary energy consumption will expand 2.2-fold, accounting for 14% of the global increment. ASEAN’s coal consumption will increase 3.5-fold, accounting for 40% of the world's increment. One-fifth of global energy-related CO2 emission growth (9.5 billion tons from 2014 to 2040) will be due to ASEAN. Due to a rapid increase in fossil fuel demand, ASEAN will become a net importer of fossil fuels. On the other hand, ASEAN countries will require enormous investment in energy resource development and infrastructure construction. In order to promote effective use of regional energy resources, infrastructure consolidation, such as power grid interconnection, can be expected to reduce energy imports, increase the energy self-sufficiency rate and suppress CO2 emissions. Keywords: Energy outlook, ASEAN, Integration of market, Energy investment 1. Foreword developed countries. As energy infrastructure In response to weak economic recovery in development is insufficient in ASEAN countries such Western countries and economic modulation in China as Myanmar and Cambodia, the ASEAN region’s and other emerging countries, global energy non-electrification rate was as high as 19% as of consumption growth has decelerated over recent 2013, with some 120 million people having no access years. Over a medium to long term, however, global to electricity. Economic growth will inevitably lead energy demand is expected to continue expanding energy consumption to increase further. due to global economic and population growth, ASEAN has Indonesia, Malaysia and other centering on Asia. Following China and India, the countries rich with fossil energy resources and still Association of Southeast Asian Nations will remains a net fossil fuel exporter. In the future, contribute to such global energy demand expansion. however, ASEAN will increase its dependence on ASEAN has a population of 600 million, greater fossil fuel imports as oil and other fossil fuel than in the European Union, including many production in the region fails to catch up with fossil countries with great economic growth potential, and fuel demand growth. While ASEAN has great supply is expected to continue strong growth. Given that potential for renewable energy including hydro, ASEAN consists of countries in various economic geothermal and biomass, the uneven distribution of development stages, ASEAN growth will become renewable energy resources has been a bottleneck for steadier if the ASEAN Economic Community, their development. In order to effectively utilize launched in late 2015 to repeal internal tariffs, regional energy resources, ASEAN countries plan to increases its effectiveness. internationally connect their energy infrastructures Per capita energy consumption in the ASEAN such as the electric grids. region is still lower than in Japan and other For this paper, we prepared a long-term energy supply and demand outlook for Asia and other regions of the world, using a group of quantitative ＊Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo models, such as an econometric energy supply and 104-0054 Japan IEEJ：May 2017 © IEEJ2017 demand model, based on actual economic, social, and 2040. In many member countries of the Organization energy supply and demand data and energy policy for Economic Cooperation and Development, trends, as well as on economic growth and downward pressure on population will increase under demographic assumptions. Focusing on the ASEAN falling birthrates and aging population. In non-OECD region, we considered how robustly growing ASEAN countries as well, birthrates will decline in line with energy demand would be satisfied, estimated income growth and women’s social participation. energy-related investment and assessed the effects of Given that death rates will decline thanks to the electricity and other market integration. development of medical care techniques and the improvement of food and sanitary conditions, Macroeconomic Model† (Major assumptions) however, population will continue increasing. GDP components GDP, Crude oil price, Exchange rate, Population, Power generation outlook, Prices, finance, etc. World trade, etc. ASEAN population will increase to 760 million by Industrial activities †Material output, automobile 2040, with annual growth averaging 0.8%. In the penetration, etc. are analyzed and Transport activities projected in detail Philippines, Laos and Cambodia where young people Energy Supply-Demand Model Technology Assessment Model Electricity mix, automobiles, are abundant, population growth will be higher. In Energy Demand consumer equipment Thailand where population is aging, population will Energy Conversion Electricity Mix Model Energy Supply These models allow for a better understanding of peak in the mid-2020s and turn down later. the interactions among numerous parameters, in CO Emissions a logical and consistent way. 2 Linear programming model to estimate World Trade Model World 2.9 oil and natural gas trade flow. 2.8 4.3 Computable General Equilibrium Model to derive economic impacts of Non-OECD 4.7 1.8 Model changes in energy supply and demand. OECD 2.0 Africa 4.5 3.9 2.9 Figure 1 Basic structure of models Middle East 4.1 Latin America 2.7 3.2 2.1 N. America 2.5 EU 1.5 2014-2040 1.6 4.2 Asia 4.4 1990-2014 2. Model structure India 6.2 6.5 China 5.1 Figure 1 indicates the basic structure of models 10.1 ASEAN 4.5 Asia 5.1 2.4 used for a quantitative analysis in this study. Based Korea 5.1 1.9 Taiwan 5.0 1.0 on detailed energy balance data from the International Japan 0.9 Energy Agency, the core econometric energy supply 0246810Annual rate % and demand model uses various economic indicators, Figure 2 Economic growth assumptions population, vehicle ownership, raw material 6.0% Myanmar Myanmar 4,530 production and other energy-related data collected 9.2% 1,036 5.7% Vietnam Vietnam 6,291 6.9% 1,596 from the World Bank’s World Development Thailand 3.3% Thailand 12,844 4.2% 5,649 8,288 Indicators and other sources, for a regression analysis Philippines 5.0% 2014- Philippines 4.1% 2,530 2040 2040 4.1% 27,687 Malaysia 1990- Malaysia to project future energy supply and demand. Data 5.8% 10,512 2014 5.0% 2014 12,264 Indonesia Indonesia used for the projection are mainly for the period 4.9% 3,704 3.0% Brunei 59,133 Brunei 29,691 1.5% Singapore 80,668 between 1971 and 2014. Simulation focuses on Singapore 2.1% 51,030 6.1% 0 40,000 80,000 $ annual projections between 2015 and 2040. 0% 5% 10% Economic growth Per capita GDP (in 2010 prices) 3. Assumptions for analysis Figure 3 Economic growth and per capita GDP in major The future energy supply and demand structure ASEAN countries will be greatly influenced by population, economic growth and other social and economic factors, as well We assumed real gross domestic product growth as energy prices, energy-using technologies and as shown in Figure 2 by reference to predictions by energy and environment policies. the International Monetary Fund, the Asian We referred to the United Nations’ “World Development Bank and other international Population Prospects” for population assumptions. organizations and governmental economic Global population will increase at an annual average development plans. The world economy, though rate of 0.9% from 7.2 billion in 2014 to 9.2 billion in plagued with various challenges, will attain robust IEEJ：May 2017 © IEEJ2017 growth over a medium to long term. Through 2040, increase. Consumption in China, India and ASEAN the world economy will grow at an annual average will greatly expand, generating 92% of the Asian rate of 2.9%. Non-OECD countries will post high increase. Meanwhile, energy consumption will level growth, including Asian countries that will drive off in mature economics such as Japan, Korea and global economic growth. Taiwan. The United States and the European Union Supported by its favorable location neighboring will leave their energy consumption unchanged from the giant markets of China and India, the ASEAN 2014, reducing their share of global consumption. region has attracted growing investment from abroad Fossil fuels’ share of global primary energy such as Europe and Japan. Furthermore, the region consumption will fall through 2040 but will still be as launched the ASEAN Economic Community in late high as 80%. The share in Asia will be similar. Fossil 2015 to accelerate economic growth through regional fuels will cover 70% of future global consumption trade liberalization and market integration. Through growth. Driven by the transport sector’s oil demand 2040, ASEAN will post an annual economic growth in emerging countries, oil will retain the largest share rate of 4.5%, the third highest after Indian and of primary energy consumption through 2040. Chinese growth. Per capita GDP will expand 2.5-fold Natural gas will become the second largest energy to $9,800 in 2040, still below the global average of source as the power generation sector globally $17,000. Per capita GDP will fall short of reaching expands gas consumption. Coal will post moderate $5,000 in Myanmar and Laos, indicating their great consumption growth, with its share narrowing, as air growth potential beyond 2040. pollution and climate change problems prompt the Among international energy prices, the real whole of the world to promote policies of holding crude oil price will increase again due to growing down coal consumption.
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