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The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies

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The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies sustainability Article The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies Flavio R. Arroyo M. 1,2,* and Luis J. Miguel 1,* 1 Systems Engineering and Automatic Control, School of Industrial Engineering, Paseo del Cauce s/n, University of Valladolid, 47011 Valladolid, Spain 2 Faculty of Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Av. Universitaria, Central University of Ecuador, Quito 170129, Ecuador * Correspondence: fl[email protected] (F.R.A.M.); [email protected] (L.J.M.) Received: 29 November 2019; Accepted: 8 December 2019; Published: 18 December 2019 Abstract: Climate change and global warming are related to the demand for energy, energy efficiency, and CO2 emissions. In this research, in order to project the trends in final energy demand, energy intensity, and CO2 emission production in Ecuador during a period between 2000 and 2030, a model has been developed based on the dynamics of the systems supported by Vensim simulation models. The energy matrix of Ecuador has changed in recent years, giving more importance to hydropower. It is conclusive that, if industrialized country policies or trends on the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency were applied, the production of CO2 emissions by 2030 in Ecuador would reach 42,191.4 KTCO2, a value well below the 75,182.6 KTCO2 that would be seen if the current conditions are maintained. In the same way, by 2030, energy intensity would be reduced to 54% compared to the beginning of the simulation period. Keywords: Business as usual (BAU); global warming; energy intensity; energy efficiency; CO2 emissions; energy policies 1. Introduction The scientific evidence is overwhelming for the proposition that global warming is due in great measure to the increase in CO2 levels in the atmosphere, as is the fact that the increase in CO2 concentration is due to human activity [1–4]. Climate change is currently one of the most pervasive and threatening problems. In many places, the changes in temperature are already placing ecosystems under stress and are also affecting human well-being [2]. Environmental change is happening at a much faster rate than previously thought, making it imperative that governments act now to reverse the damage that has been done to the planet [1,5]. The World Health Organization estimates that more than seven million people die every year due to poor air quality, and that three million of those deaths are premature. Several studies have shown that air pollution associated with the production and use of energy directly affects air quality and climate [6–12]. As global Gross domestic product (GDP) grew between 2014 and 2016, global fossil fuel emissions stagnated. However, this trend did not continue, and in 2017 global emissions increased by 1.6%. The projections of the Global Carbon Project suggest that CO2 emissions will grow by around 2.7%, reaching 37.1 gigatons by the year 3000 [4]. The main sources of air pollution are associated with inefficient transport systems, the use of electrical energy produced in power plants that consume fossil fuels, and also industrial activities. Sustainability 2020, 12, 20; doi:10.3390/su12010020 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 2 of 21 Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 310 GTCO . About 40% of these emissions have remained in the atmosphere (880 35 ± 2 ± GTCO2)[5]; the rest have been removed from the atmosphere and stored on land (in plants and soils) and in theSustainability ocean. People’s 2020, 12, x FOR life PEER expectancy REVIEW is threatened by climate change through the2 of limitation 22 of access to water, food, medical care, and land. Therefore, it is important to reduce the consumption of Between 1750 and 2011, cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 2040 fossil fuels and increase the use of renewable energy in order to minimize CO emissions [13]. ± 310 GTCO2. About 40% of these emissions have remained in the atmosphere (880 ±2 35 GTCO2) [5]; Sustainabilitythe rest have of been power removed systems from withthe atmosphere high renewable and stored energy on land penetration(in plants and ratessoils) and is a in topic the of major interest, especiallyocean. People’s when life considering expectancy is thethreatened intermittency by climate of change renewable through energy the limitation source of (RES)access to production and the actualwater, growingfood, medical trend care, of and energy land. Therefore, consumption it is important [6]. The to transitionreduce the consumption from fossil of fuels fossil to RESs is fuels and increase the use of renewable energy in order to minimize CO2 emissions [13]. an indispensableSustainability necessity of if power sustainable systems socio-economicwith high renewable systems energy penetration are to be realized.rates is a topic RES of variabilitymajor now representsinterest, a major especially challenge when when considering it comes the intermitte to upgradingncy of renewable power systems. energy source From (RES) a social production and economic perspective,and the the RES actual share growing in meeting trend of energy electricity consumption demand [6]. has The shown transition a steady from fossil growth fuels [to7 ].RESs The is increasing renewablean energy indispensable share necessity in electricity if sustainable generation socio-economic as a result systems of several are to be factorsrealized. such RES variability as environmental now represents a major challenge when it comes to upgrading power systems. From a social and constraints,economic technical perspective, and economic the RES aspects,share in meeting or social electricity implications demand hashas shown led to a a steady corresponding growth [7]. reduction in total COThe2 emissions increasing renewable [8]. energy share in electricity generation as a result of several factors such as The energyenvironmental return constraints, on investment technical (EROI) and metriceconomic includes aspects, factorsor social a ffimplicationsecting the wholehas led energyto a system that are notcorresponding accounted reduction for by in the total monetary CO2 emissions costs [8]. of individual power plants (such as additional The energy return on investment (EROI) metric includes factors affecting the whole energy costs for thesystem system that relatedare not accounted to distribution, for by the intermittency monetary costs of of RES, individual etc.) [ 14power–20 ].plants The transition(such as to new energy resourcesadditional and costs to for new the energy system conversionrelated to distri andbution, storage intermittency devices willof RES, aff ectetc.) the [14–20]. fraction The of energy reinvestment,transition which to new could energy have resources significant and to new economic energy conversion impacts and [21 storage–26]. devices Those will RESs affect with the a higher potential (i.e.,fraction wind, of energy and reinvestment, solar) have which been could generally have significant found economic to have impacts a lower [21–26]. EROI Those standard RESs (EROIst) with a higher potential (i.e., wind, and solar) have been generally found to have a lower EROI than fossilstandard fuels, especially (EROIst) than when fossil incorporating fuels, especially wh theen energy incorporating costs ofthe dealingenergy costs with of intermittencydealing with [9]. Energyintermittency and environmental [9]. objectives are a global problem and, in this regard, international agreements betweenEnergy and developed environmental and developingobjectives are countries a global problem are crucial and, in for this the regard, future international of the international energy situationagreements [10 ].between In 2015, developed world and leaders developing agreed countries to 17 goals are crucial that wouldfor the leadfuture to of a betterthe world international energy situation [10]. In 2015, world leaders agreed to 17 goals that would lead to a by 2030. Thesebetter world goals by have 2030. theThese power goals have to end the power poverty, to end fight poverty, inequality, fight inequality, and stop and climatestop climate change [11]. Technologicalchange progress, [11]. Technological the accumulation progress, the ofaccumulation capital, and of capital, the change and the change in the in structure the structure of production,of has contributedproduction, positively has contributed to the reductionpositively to of the energy reduction intensity. of energy Changes intensity. in Changes the composition in the of the energy supplycomposition (for example: of the energy the supply increasing (for example: importance the increasing of electricity) importance can of aelectricity)ffect productivity can affect [12]. productivity [12]. Energy intensityEnergy intensity has been has analyzed been analyzed and hasand beenhas been found found to to be be a keya key driver driver for for guidingguiding the the pathway of energypathway transition of energy towards transition achieving towards aachieving low carbon a low carbon economy economy [27 ,[27,28].28]. The The energy intensity intensity of the global economyof the global continues economy to continues fall. Global to fall. energy Global intensity—measuredenergy intensity—measured as theas the primary primary energy demand per unit ofdemand GDP based per unit on of the GDP 2016 based US on dollar the 2016 (USD) US do onllar a (USD) purchasing on a purchasing power paritypower
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